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Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

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Old 11-22-2011, 07:05 PM   #241  
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Over $85 million.
And you -do- realize that $75-80 million plus the additional $10-20 million displaced into the next week due to the odd release date would meet the criteria that you just specified...

...right?
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Old 11-22-2011, 07:09 PM   #242  
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And you -do- realize that $75-80 million plus the additional $10-20 million displaced into the next week due to the odd release date would meet the criteria that you just specified...

...right?
And you realize that shifting goal posts is pointless... right?

We are talking about a specific period. It is not that difficult a concept to comprehend.
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Old 11-22-2011, 07:20 PM   #243  
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And you realize that shifting goal posts is pointless... right?

We are talking about a specific period. It is not that difficult a concept to comprehend.
A specific period...such as a "normal" week's release schedule which starts on Tuesday versus the Friday release date that this particular film had. A loss three days worth of sales which will in essence be carried over into the following week's sales.

You stated (rather arbitrarily and with no substantiation as to your figure) that an opening week's sales of over $85 million would meet your criteria, well in this case the actual sales period that the figures are for is considerably less than a normal week.

Not really that hard to comprehend...eh?
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Old 11-22-2011, 07:25 PM   #244  
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A specific period...such as a "normal" week's release schedule which starts on Tuesday versus the Friday release date that this particular film had. A loss three days worth of sales which will in essence be carried over into the following week's sales.

You stated (rather arbitrarily and with no substantiation as to your figure) that an opening week's sales of over $85 million would meet your criteria, well in this case the actual sales period that the figures are for is considerably less than a normal week.

Not really that hard to comprehend...eh?
Whenever we talk weekly sales numbers, we know the reporting period. Again, not that complicated.

If you want to be taken seriously in this conversation I suggest educating yourself on what we are discussing, and respect that the reporting periods are well understood by everyone contributing to the conversation.

Perhaps then you can also contribute!
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Old 11-22-2011, 07:31 PM   #245  
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The fact of the matter is... The sales figures for HP7.2 are stunted due to the unusual release date and as such the complete picture as to its first "full" week of sales is unknown.

Directly comparing the revenue for films which are available for sale for the standard reporting period versus the revenue for films with an abridged time frame is flawed by any standard.
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Old 11-22-2011, 07:35 PM   #246  
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The fact of the matter is... The sales figures for HP7.2 are stunted due to the unusual release date and as such the complete picture as to its first "full" week of sales is unknown.

Directly comparing the revenue for films which are available for sale for the standard reporting period versus the revenue for films with an abridged time frame is flawed by any standard.
I am sorry if you don't understand the actual discussion taking place.

Again, this is an established conversation with a known reporting period. A Friday release is certainly not a unique situation, and those who actively discuss these topics have seen it (and account for it) in our conversations.


Hopefully as you educate yourself you will be able to participate in the actual discussion and not have to justify a malformed opinion due to ignorance of the topic being discussed.
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Old 11-22-2011, 07:53 PM   #247  
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And again, the simple fact is that you seem to be continually failing to take this specific factor into your unsubstantiated opinion posts.

Longer sales period = greater proportionate sales.

As to my level of experience and understanding with the topic at hand, I have been participating in these conversations publicly for considerably longer than you have and am very familiar with the topic of discussion which is why I can easily see the flaws in your commentary/opinion.

As to my education... well let's just say that I am fairly comfortable in my belief that you really shouldn't be making disparaging remarks regarding it.
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Old 11-22-2011, 07:57 PM   #248  
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And again, the simple fact is that you seem to be continually failing to take this specific factor into your unsubstantiated opinion posts.

Longer sales period = greater proportionate sales.

As to my level of experience and understanding with the topic at hand, I have been participating in these conversations publicly for considerably longer than you have and am very familiar with the topic of discussion which is why I can easily see the flaws in your commentary/opinion.

As to my education... well let's just say that I am fairly comfortable in my belief that you really shouldn't be making disparaging remarks regarding it.
Once again, what we are discussing is well understood to those who have a basic level of comprehension.

We discuss the revenue during specific reporting periods. We discuss the impact of releases during those periods, including release timing, genre and box office lead-in.

A Friday release is not unique.

And the reporting period is understood. I really don't see what the issue is, other than you tilting against a windmill. The release date is known. The reporting period is known. That is taken into account in all these discussions.
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Old 11-22-2011, 08:15 PM   #249  
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Re-read the posts from #237 forward and you will see that you in fact are the one failing to understand what was being discussed.

It was put forth that if this had been a standard "Tuesday" release that there would likely have been an additional $10-20 million in sales.

You stated that even with that additional revenue that you (personally) would consider that to be "low".

You were then asked just what number you would have expected instead (for a full unabridged week of sales) and replied "over $85 million".

I pointed out that the sales reported for the abridged week + the expected "lost" revenue from the missing days would in fact be equal to or greater than the number you quoted.

You then began this tangent.
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Old 11-22-2011, 08:25 PM   #250  
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Re-read the posts from #237 forward and you will see that you in fact are the one failing to understand what was being discussed.

It was put forth that if this had been a standard "Tuesday" release that there would likely have been an additional $10-20 million in sales.

You stated that even with that additional revenue that you (personally) would consider that to be "low".

You were then asked just what number you would have expected instead (for a full unabridged week of sales) and replied "over $85 million".

I pointed out that the sales reported for the abridged week + the expected "lost" revenue from the missing days would in fact be equal to or greater than the number you quoted.

You then began this tangent.
The entire reason I keep on pointing out that those involved in the conversation know what is being discussed is because you are missing the simple point...

I know about the release date and the reporting period. So does everyone who contributes.

It is not a wildcard.

It is a known factor.

It is accounted for in contributor estimates.


Before we go on. Can you acknowledge the simple fact that the release date AND the reporting period are already known?

Again, it is not a difficult concept to comprehend.

To refresh your memory on what started this "tangent":

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We are talking about a specific period.
Get it? We are talking about a period where we know the reporting period and the release date of titles.
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Old 11-22-2011, 08:28 PM   #251  
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That was what I meant, that HP7.2 week would be $10-20 million higher if they released it on a Tuesday instead of Friday. Instead of five HMM sale days (Tues-Sat), you're getting only two (Fri-Sat).

So if HP week comes in at $80, it would have been $90-$100 million given a Tuesday release instead. Not a big deal really since the missing sales will show up next week anyway of course.
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Old 11-22-2011, 08:33 PM   #252  
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That was what I meant, that HP7.2 week would be $10-20 million higher if they released it on a Tuesday instead of Friday. Instead of five HMM sale days (Tues-Sat), you're getting only two (Fri-Sat).

So if HP week comes in at $80, it would have been $90-$100 million given a Tuesday release instead. Not a big deal really since the missing sales will show up next week anyway of course.
Of course it would be higher, but it isn't because it was released on a Friday. That is what I am saying. We already know and have taken that into account.

The rest of the "first week" revenue will show up next week, and will be reflected in how we view that weeks revenue.

The thing is that even with that revenue, the trend will be for BD gains to drop from the levels they had at the end of Q3 and beginning of Q4.
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Old 11-22-2011, 08:39 PM   #253  
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Of course it would be higher, but it isn't because it was released on a Friday. That is what I am saying. We already know and have taken that into account.

The rest of the "first week" revenue will show up next week, and will be reflected in how we view that weeks revenue.

The thing is that even with that revenue, the trend will be for BD gains to drop from the levels they had at the end of Q3 and beginning of Q4.
Yeah I'm afraid a few of those YoY comparisons after HP week will not be very friendly. If box office really matters, then we'll see a couple negative weeks, if not the whole 7 week period go negative. On the bright side, the genre mix of remaining titles are favorable to this year over last.
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Old 11-22-2011, 09:21 PM   #254  
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Yeah I'm afraid a few of those YoY comparisons after HP week will not be very friendly. If box office really matters, then we'll see a couple negative weeks, if not the whole 7 week period go negative. On the bright side, the genre mix of remaining titles are favorable to this year over last.
The increase in installed base coupled with the season should still end up with BD growth (IMO). The cannibalization from DVD alone should prevent much negative growth. But I don't expect the percentage growth we saw late Q3 and early Q4.


I think OD as a whole will be negative (possibly VERY negative) during that period as the cannibalization of DVD will leave a big hole. Right now the cannibalization is less than a zero sum game.
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Old 11-22-2011, 09:41 PM   #255  
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The increase in installed base coupled with the season should still end up with BD growth (IMO). The cannibalization from DVD alone should prevent much negative growth. But I don't expect the percentage growth we saw late Q3 and early Q4.


I think OD as a whole will be negative (possibly VERY negative) during that period as the cannibalization of DVD will leave a big hole. Right now the cannibalization is less than a zero sum game.
True, that's a good point. The BD top 20 share has surged in the last two months, from 30% in Q410 to around 55% so far this quarter. So if that share holds out the rest of the year then it should keep it in the black the last 7 weeks, as that's a huge difference. I still expect a few minus weeks though, after all we almost had one just last week (2%) and the BO difference was only down 19%. Compare that to the 36% average BO deficit for the last seven weeks. Thinking again, a 7 week negative is not unlikely at all.

It will be interesting to see how OD is affected from that migration of new release sales from DVD to Blu-ray.

Last edited by bruceames; 11-22-2011 at 09:49 PM..
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