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Old 04-11-2012, 06:00 PM   #2461  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Sounds like a tall order, good luck with that.
Its easier just to wait a week until we get the data from HMM.

I think we could make a fairly simple formula that had the overall TBO with adjustments with genre and ranges of box office performance for the new releases and the carryover from the last week to make some sort of a guess.

Something like a base rate of sales plus X amount of the previous week plus Y times the new TBO and then add in some adjustments for those other variables.

But it would only be a parlor game anyway that only would produce a number after we got the box office estimates for the week anyway. It might be kinda useful to make some projections I guess, but bragging rights don't amount for much as its the final results that matter more.

Some sort of simple equation there might give an order of magnitude accuracy without diving into the weeds with all the possible variables.

Last edited by Kosty; 04-11-2012 at 06:11 PM..
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Old 04-11-2012, 06:04 PM   #2462  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
Really? Cool!

The quicker it gets to disc, the quicker it hits Epix and makes its way to streaming 90 days after.
I thought you would want to buy it on Blu-ray Disc?

I know I'm going to at least.

DVD RR is estimating September based on its release data genre and ARR.





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Old 04-11-2012, 07:24 PM   #2463  
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thanks for doing the graph Kosty! I appreciate it.
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Old 04-13-2012, 05:14 AM   #2464  
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Just a heads up. After week 14 the TBO will be about even for the year.

We will have some sense of where the base rate of Blu-ray growth would be with an even TBO.

The one major caveat is that this years TBO strength was with a not really super Blu-ray friendly genre title of the tent pole Twilight Saga movie while last year will have had Blu-ray friendlier titles of Megamind Tangled and Tron: Legacy in the comparisons. Still it should give us a nice even point for TBO if we ignore the genres involved.

When we get the week 14 results in (WE 04/08/12 Easter week) the TBO will swing around $274.2 back in favor of 2011.

Since we are around $276.29 +12.85% UP TBO in the HMM stats through week 13 end of 1Q ($258.3 M by bruceames BD only totals) right now that puts us close to being exactly even in the TBO comparisons.

We are at +20.9% for Blu-ray for the year right now in the HMM stats. That box office strength disparity should drive that Blu-ray cumulative stat down to something between 15% to 20% YoY growth.

If we assume that Easter week this year does exactly the same as last week around $35 M and we compare that to last year's high volume week of the release of Tron Legacy and its very high BD marketshare and the two other major releases in the matching week that did a HMM published $46.06 M in revenues that would drive the Blu-ray YoY gain back down to +16.32%.

Easter this year may do a little better than that but its still likely the TBO disparity and the comparison with a strong Blu-ray genre title last year of Tron:Legacy will likely drive the cumulative Blu-ray YoY metric down a bit.

This year:
$153.2 M TBO
War Horse, We Bought a Zoo

vs

Last Year:
$427.4 M TBO
Tron: Legacy, Little Fockers, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader


Last edited by Kosty; 04-13-2012 at 05:50 AM..
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Old 04-13-2012, 05:49 AM   #2465  
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The next week gets even tougher.


$50 M TBO (WE 04/15/12)
Iron Lady
Darkest Hour

vs

$427.67 TBO (last year)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I
Country Strong



Then it swings back a little with Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol vs second week of HP 7.1 But even after that week the TBO will strongly be in the advantage of 2011 because of the impact of Harry Potter 7.1. It will be still about $350 M down after that week by my informal calculations.

It will be interesting to see where the DVD Blu-ray and OD metrics are after we get through the next few weeks of heavy volume releases in the comparisons.



$226 M TBO (WE 04/22/12)
Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol
Born To Be Wild (Imax)

vs

$187.76 M TBO (last year)
The King's Speech
Gulliver's Travels

Last edited by Kosty; 04-13-2012 at 05:55 AM..
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Old 04-16-2012, 07:05 PM   #2466  
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Updated thru week ending 4/7/12
Table of Blu-ray sales (HMM and DEG)
numbers are in (revenue) millions.
Weekly figures are from HMM (Home Media Magazine

Code:
2012 HMM    2212.78     0.0%    1688.06    -4.6%     524.72   18.4%    23.7%    2547.9  2563.8										
Week Date      OD     OD YoY      DVD    DVD YoY       BD    BD YoY  BD Share  TBO2012 TBO2011										

14  4/7      201.90    13.9%     156.28    20.0%      45.62   -3.0%    22.6%     153.2   427.4

Q1 HMM      2010.88    -1.2%    1531.78    -6.6%     479.10   20.9%    23.8%    2394.7  2136.4

13  3/31     155.29   -19.9%     120.32   -17.4%      34.98  -27.6%    22.5%     168.6   319.2
12  3/24     148.56     8.5%     108.20    -2.8%      40.36   57.9%    27.2%     353.9   219.4
11  3/17     146.48     4.6%     112.13    -1.4%      34.34   30.2%    23.4%     276.1   154.2
10  3/10     165.27     9.5%     123.11     2.7%      42.16   35.7%    25.5%     216.0   177.1
9   3/3      150.39   -14.0%     115.29   -13.4%      35.10  -15.7%    23.3%      67.0   112.3
8   2/25     158.98    -2.2%     122.04    -7.3%      36.94   19.4%    23.2%     272.1   258.0
7   2/18     207.15    18.9%     160.38    10.4%      46.77   61.7%    22.6%      16.4    86.2
6   2/11     205.54    19.4%     151.09     3.1%      54.45  104.2%    26.5%     316.5   224.0
5   2/4      144.90    -8.6%     110.25   -16.0%      34.65   27.1%    23.9%     118.5    23.0
4   1/28     131.95   -13.6%      98.40   -20.2%      33.55   14.2%    25.4%     226.3   201.2
3   1/21     129.39    -2.4%     103.53    -4.9%      25.86    8.9%    20.0%     112.7    60.7
2   1/14     128.65    -5.1%     100.16    -7.7%      28.49    5.6%    22.1%     143.4   116.2
1   1/7      138.33    -8.0%     106.88   -11.6%      31.45    7.0%    22.7%     157.7   134.3

2011 DEG    8951.80   -13.2%    6851.80   -19.5%    2150.00   19.4%    24.0%    
2011 HMM    8604.20   -13.9%    6608.28   -20.3%    1995.92   17.7%    23.2%    9936.0 10820.9																			

Q4 DEG      3338.95   -11.0%    2464.81   -16.5%     924.14   15.5%    27.7%
Q4 HMM      3125.11   -12.4%    2280.75   -19.5%     844.36   15.1%    27.0%    3698.4  3932.2

52  12/31    174.13   -25.6%     130.29   -28.7%      43.84  -14.7%    25.2%      64.3    95.9
51  12/24    482.11   -13.1%     368.59   -16.9%     113.52    2.2%    23.5%     205.6   303.6
50  12/17    369.89   -23.4%     280.58   -26.8%      89.31  -10.1%    24.1%     360.7   635.3
49  12/10    322.48   -14.5%     243.85   -18.6%      78.63    1.5%    24.4%     624.8   535.6
48  12/3     229.49   -23.3%     173.97   -27.5%      55.52   -6.2%    24.2%     282.0   496.0
47  11/26    388.67   -12.4%     300.39   -16.5%      88.28    5.0%    22.7%     194.5   185.3
46  11/19    166.84   -14.3%     127.57   -18.0%      39.27    0.5%    23.5%      41.6   359.0
45  11/12    183.17     2.5%     128.95   -12.0%      54.22   68.3%    29.6%     422.9   251.3
44  11/5     167.53   -16.8%     117.59   -22.8%      49.94    2.0%    29.8%     335.6   414.9
43  10/29    147.15    11.2%      96.66   -11.3%      50.49  115.6%    33.6%     204.5   108.7
42  10/22    156.94     9.5%      95.94   -17.1%      61.00  120.8%    38.9%     370.0    56.0
41  10/15    152.92    -2.4%     106.50   -14.1%      46.42   42.2%    30.4%     343.3   233.0
40  10/8     183.79     9.3%     109.87    -9.4%      73.92   57.7%    40.2%     248.6   257.6

Q3 DEG      1742.79    -4.0%    1320.93   -14.7%     421.86   58.0%    24.2%
Q3 HMM      1667.09    -4.9%    1298.39   -13.9%     368.70   49.9%    22.1%    1806.3  1609.5										

39  10/1     152.58   -14.3%     109.97   -20.4%      42.61    7.1%    27.9%     352.1   382.7
38  9/24     153.60     5.0%     108.69   -12.5%      44.91  103.6%    29.2%     169.3   112.5
37  9/17     164.69    14.0%     107.37   -14.2%      57.32  197.2%    34.8%     190.8   165.2
36  9/10     128.84     0.0%     102.29   -10.5%      26.55   82.9%    20.6%     189.3    60.3
35  9/3      119.04    -9.5%     100.87   -13.7%      18.17   23.5%    15.3%      65.6    95.1
34  8/27     109.34   -13.1%      91.74   -16.6%      17.60   11.5%    16.1%      12.6    45.3
33  8/20     124.53    -4.4%     101.11   -12.8%      23.42   63.3%    18.8%     100.8    81.2
32  8/13     122.13    -1.8%      98.44    -9.5%      23.69   51.8%    19.4%     118.0   143.9
31  8/6      139.66     1.4%     111.78    -3.6%      27.88   27.9%    20.0%     189.8   133.5
30  7/30     108.78   -18.3%      89.06   -20.2%      19.72   -8.7%    18.1%      56.8   177.2
29  7/23     120.50    -1.9%      97.25    -9.4%      23.25   49.9%    19.3%      88.3    72.7
28  7/16     118.09    -4.8%      94.88   -13.5%      23.21   61.7%    19.7%     267.8    94.7
27  7/9      105.31   -16.7%      84.94   -22.7%      20.37   22.9%    19.3%       5.1    45.2										
		
Q2 DEG      1831      -15.0%    1434      -18.8%     397       9.4%    21.7%
Q2 HMM      1791.55   -12.2%    1402.94   -16.7%     388.61    9.1%    21.7%    2314.8  2422.0

26  7/2      127.11   -12.3%      96.32   -21.6%      30.79   39.4%    24.2%     102.3   181.4
25  6/25     123.25    -7.7%      98.18   -12.8%      25.07   20.1%    20.3%     205.4    85.8
24  6/18     149.89   -11.2%     114.68   -17.7%      35.21   19.5%    23.5%     208.2   142.8
23  6/11     130.81   -13.6%     103.23   -18.6%      27.58   12.3%    21.1%     305.0   152.6
22  6/4      118.16   -34.1%      96.17   -32.8%      21.99  -39.1%    18.6%      15.8   386.8
21  5/28     113.83   -16.6%      91.37   -22.9%      22.46   24.9%    19.7%     154.4    87.9
20  5/21     111.98   -15.2%      91.84   -18.9%      20.14    7.2%    18.0%      99.8   185.7
19  5/14     111.02   -23.6%      90.00   -26.8%      21.02   -6.2%    18.9%     155.6   113.6
18  5/7      122.05   -25.2%      99.74   -29.5%      22.31   -7.7%    18.3%     141.5   106.1
17  4/30     106.99   -40.6%      86.94   -39.6%      20.05  -44.5%    18.7%       0.0   120.5
16  4/23     217.30    -8.3%     171.47    -0.3%      45.83  -29.4%    21.1%     187.5   841.3
15  4/16     184.50    48.7%     134.40    24.8%      50.10  205.3%    27.2%     314.8     8.1
14  4/9      174.66    21.6%     128.60     5.9%      46.06  107.5%    26.5%     424.5     9.4
										
Q1 DEG      2068      -20.0%    1661      -25.0%     407      10.0%    19.7%		
Q1 HMM      2020.45   -23.2%    1626.20   -28.4%     394.25    9.4%    19.5%    2116.5  2857.2

13  4/2      192.11   -36.0%     144.16   -44.6%      47.95   20.1%    25.0%     300.9   461.1
12  3/26     135.54   -49.8%     110.21   -50.9%      25.33  -44.1%    18.7%     218.0   335.6
11  3/19     138.72   -46.5%     112.58   -49.6%      26.14  -27.1%    18.8%     154.2   534.3
10  3/12     146.96   -24.4%     116.11   -30.8%      30.85   16.5%    21.0%     177.0   247.2
9   3/5      174.59    -7.2%     132.93   -15.4%      41.66   34.1%    23.9%     112.3   258.8
8   2/26     160.96     4.5%     130.35    -2.5%      30.61   50.7%    19.0%     258.0    74.9
7   2/19     172.68    -8.1%     143.99   -12.7%      28.69   25.0%    16.6%      86.2    80.1
6   2/12     172.00   -19.4%     145.34   -23.1%      26.66    8.9%    15.5%     224.0   211.0
5   2/5      158.26   -16.7%     131.08   -20.8%      27.18   11.1%    17.2%      23.0   114.6
4   1/29     151.21   -14.6%     122.05   -20.9%      29.16   27.6%    19.3%     201.2   151.6
3   1/22     131.62   -16.3%     107.98   -21.0%      23.64   14.8%    18.0%      60.7    61.0
2   1/15     135.49   -17.3%     108.51   -23.9%      26.98   27.0%    19.9%     143.3   137.8
1   1/8      150.31   -14.1%     120.91   -19.5%      29.40   18.6%    19.6%     157.7   189.2

OD = optical disc (DVD + Blu-ray)
YoY = year over year percentage change
TBO = total box office
BD = Blu-ray
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Old 04-16-2012, 07:36 PM   #2467  
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Week Ending 04/07/12

Easter Week was surprisingly good, especially with the TBO disadvantage of the last couple weeks.

DVD sales were way up because of good Easter sales and Blu-ray looks like it did pretty well on Easter as well probably with family related BD+DVD combo sales to be able for the week to be as close to Tron: Legacy and the second week of Tangled as it was.

Easter last year was two weeks later in week 16.
















http://www.homemediamagazine.com/mar...k-ended-040712
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Old 04-16-2012, 07:57 PM   #2468  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Updated thru week ending 4/7/12
Table of Blu-ray sales (HMM and DEG)
numbers are in (revenue) millions.
Weekly figures are from HMM (Home Media Magazine

Code:
2012 HMM    2212.78     0.0%    1688.06    -4.6%     524.72   18.4%    23.7%    2547.9  2563.8										
Week Date      OD     OD YoY      DVD    DVD YoY       BD    BD YoY  BD Share  TBO2012 TBO2011										

14  4/7      201.90    13.9%     156.28    20.0%      45.62   -3.0%    22.6%     153.2   427.4

Q1 HMM      2010.88    -1.2%    1531.78    -6.6%     479.10   20.9%    23.8%    2394.7  2136.4

13  3/31     155.29   -19.9%     120.32   -17.4%      34.98  -27.6%    22.5%     168.6   319.2
12  3/24     148.56     8.5%     108.20    -2.8%      40.36   57.9%    27.2%     353.9   219.4
11  3/17     146.48     4.6%     112.13    -1.4%      34.34   30.2%    23.4%     276.1   154.2
10  3/10     165.27     9.5%     123.11     2.7%      42.16   35.7%    25.5%     216.0   177.1
9   3/3      150.39   -14.0%     115.29   -13.4%      35.10  -15.7%    23.3%      67.0   112.3
8   2/25     158.98    -2.2%     122.04    -7.3%      36.94   19.4%    23.2%     272.1   258.0
7   2/18     207.15    18.9%     160.38    10.4%      46.77   61.7%    22.6%      16.4    86.2
6   2/11     205.54    19.4%     151.09     3.1%      54.45  104.2%    26.5%     316.5   224.0
5   2/4      144.90    -8.6%     110.25   -16.0%      34.65   27.1%    23.9%     118.5    23.0
4   1/28     131.95   -13.6%      98.40   -20.2%      33.55   14.2%    25.4%     226.3   201.2
3   1/21     129.39    -2.4%     103.53    -4.9%      25.86    8.9%    20.0%     112.7    60.7
2   1/14     128.65    -5.1%     100.16    -7.7%      28.49    5.6%    22.1%     143.4   116.2
1   1/7      138.33    -8.0%     106.88   -11.6%      31.45    7.0%    22.7%     157.7   134.3

2011 DEG    8951.80   -13.2%    6851.80   -19.5%    2150.00   19.4%    24.0%    
2011 HMM    8604.20   -13.9%    6608.28   -20.3%    1995.92   17.7%    23.2%    9936.0 10820.9																			

Q4 DEG      3338.95   -11.0%    2464.81   -16.5%     924.14   15.5%    27.7%
Q4 HMM      3125.11   -12.4%    2280.75   -19.5%     844.36   15.1%    27.0%    3698.4  3932.2

52  12/31    174.13   -25.6%     130.29   -28.7%      43.84  -14.7%    25.2%      64.3    95.9
51  12/24    482.11   -13.1%     368.59   -16.9%     113.52    2.2%    23.5%     205.6   303.6
50  12/17    369.89   -23.4%     280.58   -26.8%      89.31  -10.1%    24.1%     360.7   635.3
49  12/10    322.48   -14.5%     243.85   -18.6%      78.63    1.5%    24.4%     624.8   535.6
48  12/3     229.49   -23.3%     173.97   -27.5%      55.52   -6.2%    24.2%     282.0   496.0
47  11/26    388.67   -12.4%     300.39   -16.5%      88.28    5.0%    22.7%     194.5   185.3
46  11/19    166.84   -14.3%     127.57   -18.0%      39.27    0.5%    23.5%      41.6   359.0
45  11/12    183.17     2.5%     128.95   -12.0%      54.22   68.3%    29.6%     422.9   251.3
44  11/5     167.53   -16.8%     117.59   -22.8%      49.94    2.0%    29.8%     335.6   414.9
43  10/29    147.15    11.2%      96.66   -11.3%      50.49  115.6%    33.6%     204.5   108.7
42  10/22    156.94     9.5%      95.94   -17.1%      61.00  120.8%    38.9%     370.0    56.0
41  10/15    152.92    -2.4%     106.50   -14.1%      46.42   42.2%    30.4%     343.3   233.0
40  10/8     183.79     9.3%     109.87    -9.4%      73.92   57.7%    40.2%     248.6   257.6

Q3 DEG      1742.79    -4.0%    1320.93   -14.7%     421.86   58.0%    24.2%
Q3 HMM      1667.09    -4.9%    1298.39   -13.9%     368.70   49.9%    22.1%    1806.3  1609.5										

39  10/1     152.58   -14.3%     109.97   -20.4%      42.61    7.1%    27.9%     352.1   382.7
38  9/24     153.60     5.0%     108.69   -12.5%      44.91  103.6%    29.2%     169.3   112.5
37  9/17     164.69    14.0%     107.37   -14.2%      57.32  197.2%    34.8%     190.8   165.2
36  9/10     128.84     0.0%     102.29   -10.5%      26.55   82.9%    20.6%     189.3    60.3
35  9/3      119.04    -9.5%     100.87   -13.7%      18.17   23.5%    15.3%      65.6    95.1
34  8/27     109.34   -13.1%      91.74   -16.6%      17.60   11.5%    16.1%      12.6    45.3
33  8/20     124.53    -4.4%     101.11   -12.8%      23.42   63.3%    18.8%     100.8    81.2
32  8/13     122.13    -1.8%      98.44    -9.5%      23.69   51.8%    19.4%     118.0   143.9
31  8/6      139.66     1.4%     111.78    -3.6%      27.88   27.9%    20.0%     189.8   133.5
30  7/30     108.78   -18.3%      89.06   -20.2%      19.72   -8.7%    18.1%      56.8   177.2
29  7/23     120.50    -1.9%      97.25    -9.4%      23.25   49.9%    19.3%      88.3    72.7
28  7/16     118.09    -4.8%      94.88   -13.5%      23.21   61.7%    19.7%     267.8    94.7
27  7/9      105.31   -16.7%      84.94   -22.7%      20.37   22.9%    19.3%       5.1    45.2										
		
Q2 DEG      1831      -15.0%    1434      -18.8%     397       9.4%    21.7%
Q2 HMM      1791.55   -12.2%    1402.94   -16.7%     388.61    9.1%    21.7%    2314.8  2422.0

26  7/2      127.11   -12.3%      96.32   -21.6%      30.79   39.4%    24.2%     102.3   181.4
25  6/25     123.25    -7.7%      98.18   -12.8%      25.07   20.1%    20.3%     205.4    85.8
24  6/18     149.89   -11.2%     114.68   -17.7%      35.21   19.5%    23.5%     208.2   142.8
23  6/11     130.81   -13.6%     103.23   -18.6%      27.58   12.3%    21.1%     305.0   152.6
22  6/4      118.16   -34.1%      96.17   -32.8%      21.99  -39.1%    18.6%      15.8   386.8
21  5/28     113.83   -16.6%      91.37   -22.9%      22.46   24.9%    19.7%     154.4    87.9
20  5/21     111.98   -15.2%      91.84   -18.9%      20.14    7.2%    18.0%      99.8   185.7
19  5/14     111.02   -23.6%      90.00   -26.8%      21.02   -6.2%    18.9%     155.6   113.6
18  5/7      122.05   -25.2%      99.74   -29.5%      22.31   -7.7%    18.3%     141.5   106.1
17  4/30     106.99   -40.6%      86.94   -39.6%      20.05  -44.5%    18.7%       0.0   120.5
16  4/23     217.30    -8.3%     171.47    -0.3%      45.83  -29.4%    21.1%     187.5   841.3
15  4/16     184.50    48.7%     134.40    24.8%      50.10  205.3%    27.2%     314.8     8.1
14  4/9      174.66    21.6%     128.60     5.9%      46.06  107.5%    26.5%     424.5     9.4
										
Q1 DEG      2068      -20.0%    1661      -25.0%     407      10.0%    19.7%		
Q1 HMM      2020.45   -23.2%    1626.20   -28.4%     394.25    9.4%    19.5%    2116.5  2857.2

13  4/2      192.11   -36.0%     144.16   -44.6%      47.95   20.1%    25.0%     300.9   461.1
12  3/26     135.54   -49.8%     110.21   -50.9%      25.33  -44.1%    18.7%     218.0   335.6
11  3/19     138.72   -46.5%     112.58   -49.6%      26.14  -27.1%    18.8%     154.2   534.3
10  3/12     146.96   -24.4%     116.11   -30.8%      30.85   16.5%    21.0%     177.0   247.2
9   3/5      174.59    -7.2%     132.93   -15.4%      41.66   34.1%    23.9%     112.3   258.8
8   2/26     160.96     4.5%     130.35    -2.5%      30.61   50.7%    19.0%     258.0    74.9
7   2/19     172.68    -8.1%     143.99   -12.7%      28.69   25.0%    16.6%      86.2    80.1
6   2/12     172.00   -19.4%     145.34   -23.1%      26.66    8.9%    15.5%     224.0   211.0
5   2/5      158.26   -16.7%     131.08   -20.8%      27.18   11.1%    17.2%      23.0   114.6
4   1/29     151.21   -14.6%     122.05   -20.9%      29.16   27.6%    19.3%     201.2   151.6
3   1/22     131.62   -16.3%     107.98   -21.0%      23.64   14.8%    18.0%      60.7    61.0
2   1/15     135.49   -17.3%     108.51   -23.9%      26.98   27.0%    19.9%     143.3   137.8
1   1/8      150.31   -14.1%     120.91   -19.5%      29.40   18.6%    19.6%     157.7   189.2

OD = optical disc (DVD + Blu-ray)
YoY = year over year percentage change
TBO = total box office
BD = Blu-ray

Last edited by Kosty; 04-17-2012 at 02:13 PM..
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Old 04-16-2012, 08:03 PM   #2469  
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TBO for the year is just about now dead even through 14 weeks.

Blu-ray is still up +18.4% YoY and DVD is only down -4.6%

OD is also dead even for the YoY comparison with Blu-ray completely covering the lower DVD attrition for the year once again.

That's kinda surprising after the last couple weeks TBO comparisons.
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Old 04-16-2012, 09:04 PM   #2470  
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I had to check that twice!

DVD up 20% and Blu-ray down 3% on a down TBO week.


Without a doubt something has changed. Blu-ray continues its trend of declining growth, so nothing new there (sub 20% growth on flat TBO).


But DVD is certainly over-performing for the year so far. The story of the year is that DVD is covering DVDs previous rate of decline even as Blu-ray growth falters.
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Old 04-16-2012, 09:40 PM   #2471  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post


I had to check that twice!

DVD up 20% and Blu-ray down 3% on a down TBO week.


Without a doubt something has changed. Blu-ray continues its trend of declining growth, so nothing new there (sub 20% growth on flat TBO).


But DVD is certainly over-performing for the year so far. The story of the year is that DVD is covering DVDs previous rate of decline even as Blu-ray growth falters.
From what I gather it's because of Easter. Last year it was April 18th. Still very strong sales, especially for DVD. Almost astonishing considering the box office. How can DVD be up that much? It's been almost a year since it was up 20% or more and the BO YoY then was +205%.
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Old 04-16-2012, 09:43 PM   #2472  
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From what I gather it's because of Easter. Last year it was April 18th. Still very strong sales, especially for DVD. Almost astonishing considering the box office. How can DVD be up that much? It's been almost a year since it was up 20% or more and the BO YoY then was +205%.
I don't ever recall DVD being up that much with BD down.

Something fundamental seems to have shifted, and the source of the change is DVD sales (and not BD trends). Bizarre and totally unexpected.
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Old 04-16-2012, 09:44 PM   #2473  
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Its a sign that bd is starting to peak. People are not willing to spend the extra for a better picture. They are fine with dvd. Its that simple.
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Old 04-16-2012, 09:47 PM   #2474  
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Quote:
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Without a doubt something has changed. Blu-ray continues its trend of declining growth, so nothing new there (sub 20% growth on flat TBO).


But DVD is certainly over-performing for the year so far. The story of the year is that DVD is covering DVDs previous rate of decline even as Blu-ray growth falters.
Pretty amazing performance by DVD indeed. A key barometer is the market share. Q1 2012, at 23.8%, was only 4.3% higher than Q1 2011. BD market share is growing at a snail's pace. Q2 2011 the average market share was 21.7%, so Blu-ray's share will have to grow by 2.2% this quarter just to keep with that puny 4.3% YoY pace. It's pretty clear that consumers still love their DVD and market share growth is a huge struggle for the 6 year old format.
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Old 04-16-2012, 09:50 PM   #2475  
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Pretty amazing performance by DVD indeed. A key barometer is the market share. Q1 2012, at 23.8%, was only 4.3% higher than Q1 2011. BD market share is growing at a snail's pace. Q2 2011 the average market share was 21.7%, so Blu-ray's share will have to grow by 2.2% this quarter just to keep with that puny 4.3% YoY pace. It's pretty clear that consumers still love their DVD and market share growth is a huge struggle for the 6 year old format.
I always thought that the steady negative cannibalization of DVD by Blu-ray was a given.

If these trends continue, it looks like Blu-ray may even fail at that simple lowered expectation.
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