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Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

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Old 04-08-2012, 10:16 AM   #2386  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Not everyone lets movies go unwatched sitting on their shelf. But as the market continues to saturate and more and more of them accumulate on people's shelf, there comes an increased awareness that maybe buying discs isn't as good as value as what they thought.

And that's especially true when they also realize that their collection is becoming obsolete as the HD versions come out. I think this a part of what's holding Blu-ray back. People don't want to start collecting Blu-ray and have them become obsolete as well in 5-10 years.

I don't consider OD purchases to be "routine". It's true that studios depend on the spontaneous purchase and without that mindset then OD sales would probably be 1/2 of what they are now. But only collectors make routine purchases.
As I stated, there are certainly exceptions with individual buyers and individual titles.

But the studios are well aware that there is an issue with customers buying discs that are watched once (or not at all). Once consumers become aware of their own viewing patterns, then the justification for $18+ to purchase a disc that will primarily sit on a shelf becomes much more difficult.

People make purchase decisions based on value. For some, simply having the disc on the shelf to be watched at their leisure (or having certain titles in their library) justifies the value. And there are many that still do it.

That is why I say that the argument that sell through is dead as an excuse for Blu-ray's poor performance (likely forever under $3 billion a year in sell through revenue) is a fallacy.

Content ownership still has value. Having a library that sits on a shelf is the concept that is dying as the value of the library (as a whole) is strictly limited to the location of that library. (And yes, I know individual discs are portable, but the library as a whole generally remains in one location).
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Old 04-08-2012, 12:37 PM   #2387  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty
Most consumers do not put that much thought into routine retail purchases
Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames
I don't consider OD purchases to be "routine". It's true that studios depend on the spontaneous purchase and without that mindset then OD sales would probably be 1/2 of what they are now. But only collectors make routine purchases.

Last week, HMM reported that almost 2 million Blu-ray and 9 million DVD units were sold at retail in North America. That's a lot of routine purchases by consumers.

I guess its how you mean routine. I meant it as a non involved non significant everyday routine consumer purchase done without a lot of thought to the consequence. In that sense I meant that most consumers that buy DVDs or Blu-ray probably do not dwell to much on the future of the formats. They just want to watch the movie.

But if you meant "routine" as a scheduled every week or at a normal time interval purchase I can understand your point to a degree. But even in that case there are a lot of DVD and Blu-ray consumers that routinely purchase physical media on a weekly or every few week basis as at under $20 price points its a low involvement purchase.
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Old 04-08-2012, 02:29 PM   #2388  
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Just looking at this chart it would seem that Blu-ray household adoption is doing better than anything else except DVD if its over 25% at the 6 year point. Its not DVD but nothing else in that chart is either.

Of course Blu-ray hardware household adoption is helped that with streaming applications Blu-ray players are mulit-purpose devices and the mass market PS3 as a Blu-ray device does a lot of other things besides Blu-ray as well.


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Six years after the VCR was introduced, they did not sell for $100 like BD players do. Nowheres near that price point.
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Yes, it took a long time for VHS players to get cheap. DVD and BLu-ray player price drop curves should be fairly similar however. The main difference is that people actually bought those $100 DVD players.
Durriung 1984 to 1990 vhs player sales exploaded. This is even at $300 price points. If you adjust for inflation I bet that is closer to $500. I remember getting my first vcr in 1990 for $350.

Blu-ray is not doing as well as you think. Sub $100 prices at any store that sells them and blu-ray can only get 25% sales is not healthy for a format that has been around for so long.
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Old 04-08-2012, 10:54 PM   #2389  
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Durriung 1984 to 1990 vhs player sales exploaded. This is even at $300 price points. If you adjust for inflation I bet that is closer to $500. I remember getting my first vcr in 1990 for $350.
Different time. You had less than 30 channels on tv and VHS was pretty much the only way to watch movies after the theater.
I also noticed you shifted the dates. Some people on this forum would call that cheating.

Quote:
Blu-ray is not doing as well as you think. Sub $100 prices at any store that sells them and blu-ray can only get 25% sales is not healthy for a format that has been around for so long.
Blu ray is doing well all things considered.
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Old 04-08-2012, 11:11 PM   #2390  
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Blu ray is doing well all things considered.
No, it's not. Just because you said it is does not make it true.

It's peaked.
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Old 04-08-2012, 11:23 PM   #2391  
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No, it's not. Just because you said it is does not make it true.

It's peaked.
You are certainly entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

Blu-ray's growth in 2011 was more than 2010 and Blu-ray is growing so far at an even faster rate in 2012. Blu-ray is still growing in revenues, unit sales and marketshare.

That does not equal any definition of having peaked despite your musings to the contrary. Just because you say so does not make it true.



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Old 04-08-2012, 11:37 PM   #2392  
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No, it's not. Just because you said it is does not make it true.

It's peaked.
You and others have given us many reasons why blu ray shouldnt succeed. That no one buys movies anymore and that people are too busy on facebook to even watch movies. So Id say its doing pretty good considering the market today. OD is still #1 in revenue and more consumers are buying the more expensive BD sku on some releases.

By your definition of 'peaked' then blu ray probably peaked years ago. But it isnt true simply cause you say so.
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Old 04-09-2012, 03:12 AM   #2393  
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Complete Historical Trend Slide Set as online PDF Week Ending 03/24/12

Long Term VHS DVD Blu-ray Sell Through and Rental Trends by Quarter Slide Set

Complete Nielsen Videoscan Weekly Sales Report Slide Set as online PDF Week 04/01/12


Example screenshots of the interface are below. Use the above links to view.





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Old 04-09-2012, 01:08 PM   #2394  
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Just looking at the TBO comparisons for the week ending 04/01/12 there was a lot more for the matching week last year than this this year.

Tangled and The Black Swan last year were a lot more powerful than Alvin and the 911 movie were this year. That's a -$150 M TBO swing in a single week.

A lot of the TBO advantage 2012 has had actually goes back down this week when we get the results later on today. In a single week the TBO goes from last week's $425.03 M +23.22% up to only $268.9 M and only +12.6% up in bruceames TBO tracking. HMM is slightly different.

Last year HMM reported $192.11 M OD = $144.16 DVD + $47.95 M Blu-ray so its a tough head to head comparison week.

It will be interesting to see where Blu-ray, DVD and the OD YoY metrics stand just after this week when the TBO advantage is cut in half.



Year to date (after week 13):

2012 total releases: 440
2011 total releases: 411

2012 New Theatrical: 101 / 2394.7M TBO (+12.6%)
2011 New Theatrical: 99 / 2125.8M TBO

2012 Theatrical Catalog*: 131 total / 60 major studios
2011 Theatrical Catalog*: 151 total / 93 major studios


New to domestic Blu-ray-week ending 4/1/12: 38 titles

New Theatrical: 5
Theatrical Catalog: 11
Other: 22

Code:
Title                                       Year  Released  IMDB   RT BoxOffice Studio
New theatrical: 5 / 168.6M TBO
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked        2011   3/27/12   3.7   13   130.9   Fox
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close           2011   3/27/12   6.7   47    31.8   Warner
A Dangerous Method                          2011   3/27/12   6.7   77     5.6   Sony
In the Land of Blood and Honey              2011   3/27/12   4.1   57     0.3   Sony
Corman's World: Exploits of a Hollywood Re..2011   3/27/12   7.2   91     0.0   Anchor Bay







Code:
Title                                       Year  Released  IMDB   RT BoxOffice Studio
New Theatrical: 11 / 319.2M TBO
Tangled                                     2010   3/29/11   7.9   88   200.8   Buena Vista
Black Swan                                  2010   3/29/11   8.5   88   107.0   Fox
Fair Game                                   2010   3/29/11   7.0   80     9.5   Summit Entertainment
Made in Dagenham                            2010   3/29/11   7.1   81     1.1   Sony
All Good Things                             2010   3/29/11   6.4   33     0.6   Magnolia
Dogtooth                                    2009   3/29/11   7.3   93     0.1   Kino Video
Mesrine: Public Enemy #1                    2008   3/29/11   7.4   84     0.1   Music Box Films
Evangelion: 2.2 You Can (Not) Advance       2009   3/29/11   7.9                FUNimation
The Resident                                2011   3/29/11   5.3   39           Image
Dead Awake                                  2010   3/29/11   5.8                Millennium
Embodiment of Evil                          2008   3/29/11   6.1   53           Synapse 



 .



hat tip bruceames
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Old 04-09-2012, 01:09 PM   #2395  
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Last Tangled did 41% Blu-ray unit marketshare for the week ending 4/04/11.

Black Swan did 43% Blu-ray unit marketshare with about a fifth of the unit volume.

This year Alvin did 23% and Hop the Friday release from last week did 27% on Blu-ray with Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close as a drama did 27% with The Muppets as a carryover doing 35% Blu-ray unit marketshare.

Nothing this year matches Tangled performance from last year.

It will be interesting to see the revenues stats when they come out for this week. Its a tough comparison.







vs





Last edited by Kosty; 04-09-2012 at 01:43 PM..
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Old 04-09-2012, 01:42 PM   #2396  
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The-Numbers came out with their blu-ray "guesstimate" for the week ending March 25th.

T-N Blu-ray revenue for top 10 titles: $64.2 million
HMM revenue for all 6000 BD titles: $40.4 million.

The-Numbers Revenue for Top 10 blu-ray titles in 2012: $1.34 Gazillion.

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Old 04-09-2012, 01:48 PM   #2397  
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Both Hop as a Friday release and The Muppets as a strong family title will probably have a bit more carryover than usual in the HMM stats as their first Sunday of release falls into the second week in the HMM revenue date range. That may help a bit.
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Old 04-09-2012, 01:57 PM   #2398  
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Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post
The-Numbers came out with their blu-ray "guesstimate" for the week ending March 25th.

T-N Blu-ray revenue for top 10 titles: $64.2 million
HMM revenue for all 6000 BD titles: $40.4 million.

The-Numbers Revenue for Top 10 blu-ray titles in 2012: $1.34 Gazillion.

ROFL! You all give more time and energy to untrustworthy sources than I do. Done with that game.
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Old 04-10-2012, 01:09 PM   #2399  
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Old 04-10-2012, 01:28 PM   #2400  
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So an Alvin and the Chipmunks sequel and a controversial 9/11 drama couldn't come close to Black Swan, The Ten Commandments, and Tangled. Imagine that.
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