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Old 11-22-2011, 03:40 PM   #226  
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The-Numbers posted their DVD figures for Harry Potter week, and by assuming the Nielsen ratios match theirs as they have (to within a percent or so), then HP7.2 sold about 2.72 million units on Blu-ray, or about a million more than Cars 2. That's about what I guessed, based on the expected attrition of Cars 2, which was about 79%.

Cars 2, POTC 4, and Captain America have all had attrition levels to within a few percent of each other (averaging 78%), and have been higher than the norm (about 71%). That's probably because their are more preorders or day 1 purchases, as well as the first week discounts being higher than the norm.

Based on HP units and assuming they are somewhat proportional to Cars 2 units (although high of course), Then HMM should report in around $80 million this week for BLu-ray.

http://www.the-numbers.com/dvd/chart...y/thisweek.php
Last time I saw someone estimate total weekly blu-ray sales based on a single title estimate of DVD units from "the Numbers" and Nielsen percentages, he was off by $30 million.

Not saying I doubt $80 million. Seems about right. Could very well be. Just sayin' is all.
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Old 11-22-2011, 03:45 PM   #227  
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The-Numbers posted their DVD figures for Harry Potter week, and by assuming the Nielsen ratios match theirs as they have (to within a percent or so), then HP7.2 sold about 2.72 million units on Blu-ray, or about a million more than Cars 2. That's about what I guessed, based on the expected attrition of Cars 2, which was about 79%.

Cars 2, POTC 4, and Captain America have all had attrition levels to within a few percent of each other (averaging 78%), and have been higher than the norm (about 71%). That's probably because their are more preorders or day 1 purchases, as well as the first week discounts being higher than the norm.

Based on HP units and assuming they are somewhat proportional to Cars 2 units (although high of course), Then HMM should report in around $80 million this week
Your buddy over at HDD stole this post. Of course he didn't link back to you. He must be starved for comments as that forum is a ghost town.
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Old 11-22-2011, 04:09 PM   #228  
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Your buddy over at HDD stole this post. Of course he didn't link back to you. He must be starved for comments as that forum is a ghost town.
Pretty pathetic if you ask me.
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Old 11-22-2011, 04:18 PM   #229  
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Thanks Bruce!

So it looks like catalog (or post 1st week releases) are going to have to jump significantly the rest of the way for BD to continue posting significant percentage gains.
I believe Hangover 2 week has significant TBO (over $600M).
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Old 11-22-2011, 04:42 PM   #230  
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Last time I saw someone estimate total weekly blu-ray sales based on a single title estimate of DVD units from "the Numbers" and Nielsen percentages, he was off by $30 million.

Not saying I doubt $80 million. Seems about right. Could very well be. Just sayin' is all.
I'm basing my guess on the "hope" that their numbers, although obviously high, may be somewhat accurate in proportion from week to the next. That is, HP7.2, although it didn't sell 2.7 million BD units, may have sold 60% more units than did Cars2. So I just basically multiplied $50 times 1.6. I didn't check the remaining titles though, and they're probably not 60% higher as a group, so if anything my guess would be a little high.
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Old 11-22-2011, 04:54 PM   #231  
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Your buddy over at HDD stole this post. Of course he didn't link back to you. He must be starved for comments as that forum is a ghost town.
Oh well he did refer to me by name and the name of the forum. No big deal to me and I always consider it a compliment if somebody cross posts what I write.
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Old 11-22-2011, 05:22 PM   #232  
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Gizmo is just looking for something negative to say about Kosty because once again he doesn't like the actual data being posted yet can't refute it.

HP7 (and the series as a whole) should have very long legs over the next few weeks as it will be a popular gift title.
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Old 11-22-2011, 05:23 PM   #233  
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Pretty pathetic if you ask me.
If the person he quoted doesn't have an issue with it then frankly your opinion is pointless.
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Old 11-22-2011, 05:30 PM   #234  
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HP7 (and the series as a whole) should have very long legs over the next few weeks as it will be a popular gift title.
I don't doubt that a bit, although I don't know if it'll make it to 10 million TN units. It has a good chance, since it's over 5.5 million already and accounting that week 2 should be pretty strong considering it was a Friday release.
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Old 11-22-2011, 05:32 PM   #235  
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I don't doubt that a bit, although I don't know if it'll make it to 10 million TN units. It has a chance, since it's over 5.5 million already and accounting that week 2 should be pretty strong considering it was a Friday release.
I'm curious as to how many HP7.1 copies will be sold as well. I know of at least a few people who had been holding off purchasing it until after the 2nd part was released.
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Old 11-22-2011, 05:59 PM   #236  
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I'm basing my guess on the "hope" that their numbers, although obviously high, may be somewhat accurate in proportion from week to the next. That is, HP7.2, although it didn't sell 2.7 million BD units, may have sold 60% more units than did Cars2. So I just basically multiplied $50 times 1.6. I didn't check the remaining titles though, and they're probably not 60% higher as a group, so if anything my guess would be a little high.
Under $80 million would be a very bad week for BD considering the lead-in and the season.
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Old 11-22-2011, 06:12 PM   #237  
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Under $80 million would be a very bad week for BD considering the lead-in and the season.
Yes that would be below expectations, IMO. But remember HP was a Friday release, and that alone could move about $10-20 million into next week, that would have counted this week if it were released on a Tuesday.
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Old 11-22-2011, 06:42 PM   #238  
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Yes that would be below expectations, IMO. But remember HP was a Friday release, and that alone could move about $10-20 million into next week, that would have counted this week if it were released on a Tuesday.
That definitely would have an impact, but that would still be a low number.
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Old 11-22-2011, 06:47 PM   #239  
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That definitely would have an impact, but that would still be a low number.
What would you consider a "par" number then, $110 million?
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Old 11-22-2011, 06:52 PM   #240  
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What would you consider a "par" number then, $110 million?
Over $85 million.

HP7pt2 is a major release. The final installment of a massive franchise.

We are a year later, with a larger installed base of BD players. It is the 4th quarter shopping season.

As far as lead-in, it doesn't get much better than this.
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