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Old 04-04-2012, 07:58 PM   #2296  
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Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
Thank you Bruce. Why wouldn't anyone think that? On the heals of the very successful DVD we have a new format that delivers our movies in stunning HD! I made the mistake of confusing my enthusiasm with the average consumer. Most people did. Including those in that poll I talked about. As did the studios. To deny this is to be in denial.
Talking about a Blu-ray fanboy poll at an enthusiast site just after the format war ended is hardly the same thing as the studios and retailers expecting everybody to rush right out an buy everything on Blu-ray.

Even if anyone in the industry seriously expected that it would have been impossible to do for the mastering replication and release of titles on the Blu-ray format in the years after the format war anyway. The pace of releases in 2008 and 2009 kinda prove that was never a serious expectation after the format war if it ever was at all.
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Old 04-04-2012, 09:03 PM   #2297  
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Originally Posted by bruceames
BO being down last year 8.2% just makes the comparison worse this year.

2011: Blu-ray +19.4% and BO YoY -8.2%
2012: Blu-ray + 27.8% and BO YoY +22.2%

So it took box office lead-in going from -8.2 percent to plus +22.2 percent, a net difference of 30.4 percent, just to see a modest rise of 8.4 percent in Blu-ray growth.

Are you sure it was "convenient" for me to leave it out?
1Q 2011 TBO was down -25.92% last year and was a major reason that Blu-ray was only up 10% in the 1Q 2011 period and 1H2011. You should be comparing 10% or the low of 7% in the 1Q 2011 YoY period to the current 28% or high of 33% as well. The better releases have obviously contributed to better performance in that metric in the 1Q 2012 vs 1Q 2011.

You should use that as a seasonal comparison instead of just looking at 1Q 2012 to all of 2012. That's distorting to a degree by throwing in the 4Q high volume period.

But you seem to be implying that there should be some sort of one to one correlation with the box office strength instead of the more general one that there is in reality. Better strength of releases and better TBO help as lesser poorer ones hurt but its hardly a direct correlation. Plus the genre's matter as well.
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Old 04-04-2012, 09:10 PM   #2298  
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The-Numbers top 10 Blu-ray revenue week ending 3/25/12: $64.19 million.

HMM total Blu-ray revenue for week ending 3/24: $40.36 million.

Last 4 weeks:

The-Numbers: $237.13 million
HMM: $151.96
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Old 04-04-2012, 09:19 PM   #2299  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
1Q 2011 TBO was down -25.92% last year and was a major reason that Blu-ray was only up 10% in the 1Q 2011 period and 1H2011. You should be comparing 10% or the low of 7% in the 1Q 2011 YoY period to the current 28% or high of 33% as well. The better releases have obviously contributed to better performance in that metric in the 1Q 2012 vs 1Q 2011.

You should use that as a seasonal comparison instead of just looking at 1Q 2012 to all of 2012. That's distorting to a degree by throwing in the 4Q high volume period.

But you seem to be implying that there should be some sort of one to one correlation with the box office strength instead of the more general one that there is in reality. Better strength of releases and better TBO help as lesser poorer ones hurt but its hardly a direct correlation. Plus the genre's matter as well.
Sure, I can compare Q1 this year vs. Q1 last year. And I'll tell you what, Blu-ray being up 10% under -25% YoY box office lead-in, is way, WAY more impressive than Blu-ray being up 27.8% under +22% YoY box office. That comparison makes the progression in growth decline plain as day. Blu-ray is so far actually doing much worse this year than it did in Q1 last year. Wow, not even close.

And you keep harping on the genre mix being unfriendly to Blu-ray this quarter. What makes you think it was more favorable in Q1 2011? Are you speculating on this, just because Twilight came out, or do you have any evidence to back up your claim?
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Old 04-04-2012, 09:34 PM   #2300  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
But you seem to be implying that there should be some sort of one to one correlation with the box office strength instead of the more general one that there is in reality. Better strength of releases and better TBO help as lesser poorer ones hurt but its hardly a direct correlation. Plus the genre's matter as well.
There's not a one to one relationship, as there are obviously other factors. But let's face it, Blu-ray is a new release format. Even you said that the top 10 alone accounts for at least 80% of all its revenue. How much more dependent on new releases can you get? And the vast majority of that new release revenue comes from strong box office movies.
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Old 04-04-2012, 09:57 PM   #2301  
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And you keep harping on the genre mix being unfriendly to Blu-ray this quarter. What makes you think it was more favorable in Q1 2011? Are you speculating on this, just because Twilight came out, or do you have any evidence to back up your claim?
You are the one who is making an issue of alleging that Blu-ray is underperforming relative to the box office strength, not me. It does not matter with your mechanizations of talking about how Blu-ray gained more in percentage than DVD with Twilight Saga this quarter, that's a different subject to the overall strength of the Twilight Release being a less favorable genre to Blu-ray than it was to DVD. DVD obviously gained more in absolute units sold and revenue and its percentage YoY gain is always muted by its larger base of sales and overall magnitude. The percentages for DVD are less volatile.

Twilight Saga is much of that TBO gain you are observing and as a lagging chick flick teen vampire romance phenomena it was expected that it would not impact Blu-ray nearly as much as it did DVD. Its obvious that Blu-ray would benefit less from Twilight Saga's box office performance in its theatrical to home video conversion number and that single title is much of the total box office percentage gain you are going on about.

If you want an explanation of why Blu-ray YoY gains did not match as much the TBO gains the reason is obvious.

Blu-ray still gained a lot from Twilight, but it gained less to the TBO gain than if the release was a more favorable action superhero genre like Avatar etc.




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Old 04-04-2012, 10:11 PM   #2302  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
There's not a one to one relationship, as there are obviously other factors. But let's face it, Blu-ray is a new release format. Even you said that the top 10 alone accounts for at least 80% of all its revenue. How much more dependent on new releases can you get? And the vast majority of that new release revenue comes from strong box office movies.
I did not specifically state that I think the top 10 Blu-ray titles did 80% of the format's revenues. I have stated that as new and recent releases being in that general ballpark. That would be more like the Top 20 Blu-ray titles over time.

I also think that The-Numbers Blu-ary revenue estimates are generally routinely high as well and some weeks with titles that do high volumes at Walmart their revenue estimates can be very high on the early weeks of release.

But I think that both The-Numbers and HMM and DEG and Rentrak and NPD and other data sources all show same trends over time even if the magnitudes do not match. I also think title to title or point to point comparisons internal to each data base are also valid. You just get in trouble in comparing the magnitudes especially in seasonally lower volume periods of the year and in shorter term comparisons like individual weeks.
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Old 04-04-2012, 10:17 PM   #2303  
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Originally Posted by bruceames
Sure, I can compare Q1 this year vs. Q1 last year. And I'll tell you what, Blu-ray being up 10% under -25% YoY box office lead-in, is way, WAY more impressive than Blu-ray being up 27.8% under +22% YoY box office. That comparison makes the progression in growth decline plain as day. Blu-ray is so far actually doing much worse this year than it did in Q1 last year. Wow, not even close.
You sure did not seem to be overly impressed with 10% YoY growth last 1Q 2011 at the time and you sure did not really seem to be too favorable to the argument and observation that much of that slow growth for Blu-ray was because of the poor TBO comparison and lower strength of the releases. It mattered then and it matters now.

Blu-ray is obviously doing better as is DVD and OD in general in growth this year than last by most commonly accepted measures. Its only in those secondary statistical or percentage comparisons that you are calculating that the metrics show as something less favorable. Its not so much a question of Blu-ray doing worse as it is that DVD is doing better with the same release resources. Its obviously clear that a big part of it is DVD doing more with the Twilight Saga tent pole release.
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Old 04-05-2012, 05:33 AM   #2304  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Sure, I can compare Q1 this year vs. Q1 last year. And I'll tell you what, Blu-ray being up 10% under -25% YoY box office lead-in, is way, WAY more impressive than Blu-ray being up 27.8% under +22% YoY box office. That comparison makes the progression in growth decline plain as day. Blu-ray is so far actually doing much worse this year than it did in Q1 last year. Wow, not even close.
I don't really get this point of view Bruce. I think the problem for me is using BO growth of 22% on a 25% decline, compared to Blu-Ray's growth of ~28% on a 10% increase to pronounce on relative growth doesn't bear scrutiny.

Comparing 2011-2010 and 2012-2011 separately looks like a percentage game to me. If BO had grown 22% on a 50%, 75% or even 90% decline your comparison with Blu-Ray would look equally as damning on the face of it, but the reality would still be the same. I think the following is the actual relative growth/decline for each over the period:-

Code:
Year    BO %                           BD %                    
2010    100                            100                           
2011    75 (-25% YOY)                  110 (+10% YOY)       
2012    91 (+22% YOY, -9% vs 2010)     140 (+28% YOY, +40% vs 2010)
I think that clearly shows BD growth relative to BO. Playing the "percentage game" BO has "grown" 22% YOY, it's still down 9% on 2010, meanwhile Blu-Ray is up 40%. Now whether that BD growth is acceptable or not is certainly up for debate, but to my mind not acknowledging the actual relative increase across the whole period in question would be to dispute whether there's any connection between BO and BD, which would destroy the point of this comparison anyway.

Ray Von

Last edited by Ray Von Geezer; 04-05-2012 at 05:39 AM..
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Old 04-05-2012, 07:40 AM   #2305  
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I don't really get this point of view Bruce. I think the problem for me is using BO growth of 22% on a 25% decline, compared to Blu-Ray's growth of ~28% on a 10% increase to pronounce on relative growth doesn't bear scrutiny.

Comparing 2011-2010 and 2012-2011 separately looks like a percentage game to me. If BO had grown 22% on a 50%, 75% or even 90% decline your comparison with Blu-Ray would look equally as damning on the face of it, but the reality would still be the same. I think the following is the actual relative growth/decline for each over the period:-

Code:
Year    BO %                           BD %                    
2010    100                            100                           
2011    75 (-25% YOY)                  110 (+10% YOY)       
2012    91 (+22% YOY, -9% vs 2010)     140 (+28% YOY, +40% vs 2010)
I think that clearly shows BD growth relative to BO. Playing the "percentage game" BO has "grown" 22% YOY, it's still down 9% on 2010, meanwhile Blu-Ray is up 40%. Now whether that BD growth is acceptable or not is certainly up for debate, but to my mind not acknowledging the actual relative increase across the whole period in question would be to dispute whether there's any connection between BO and BD, which would destroy the point of this comparison anyway.

Ray Von
Ray, the only problem with using 2010 (or earlier) as a benchmark is that Blu-ray is a growing format and box office is not. Blu-ray's (continued) growth is being weighted against the change of the most important indicator. I'm sure you can grasp that once you start to think about it.

Whenever something unusual occurs, I always like to know why. OD is up 0.7% this quarter, according to HMM, with only one week left to report.

Now how you choose to interpret the significance of the box office being up 22% is up to you. There is no formula for calculating what BD YoY would be if it were flat. But my sense tells me that Blu-ray up 27% on 22% YoY BO is very unimpressive. In fact, I would call it disappointing.
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Old 04-05-2012, 07:43 AM   #2306  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
You are the one who is making an issue of alleging that Blu-ray is underperforming relative to the box office strength, not me. It does not matter with your mechanizations of talking about how Blu-ray gained more in percentage than DVD with Twilight Saga this quarter, that's a different subject to the overall strength of the Twilight Release being a less favorable genre to Blu-ray than it was to DVD. DVD obviously gained more in absolute units sold and revenue and its percentage YoY gain is always muted by its larger base of sales and overall magnitude. The percentages for DVD are less volatile.

Twilight Saga is much of that TBO gain you are observing and as a lagging chick flick teen vampire romance phenomena it was expected that it would not impact Blu-ray nearly as much as it did DVD. Its obvious that Blu-ray would benefit less from Twilight Saga's box office performance in its theatrical to home video conversion number and that single title is much of the total box office percentage gain you are going on about.

If you want an explanation of why Blu-ray YoY gains did not match as much the TBO gains the reason is obvious.

Blu-ray still gained a lot from Twilight, but it gained less to the TBO gain than if the release was a more favorable action superhero genre like Avatar etc.
So it was just speculation then. Good to know.
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Old 04-05-2012, 08:23 AM   #2307  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Actually, DVD was the second go around for catalog. Home video was new with VHS. DVD was a big step up, but it was still SD. Mal is correct in his observation that studios expected/hoped that consumers would want to yet again upgrade their collection to Blu-ray, since it is the first time that most of these movies are available in HD.
While DVD and VHS were similar in terms of being in standard definition, the similarities pretty much end there. The form factor. Chapters and special features, no more rewinding tapes, cost for the studios, cost and form factor for retailers. Portability. Capacity for storage.

Honestly, there is really no comparison. Blu-Ray's main attraction over DVD is PQ/AQ and some special feature enhancements. For videophiles and audiophiles Blu-Ray is a big step forward. But as Lee said, it comes down to dollars and cents. As long as Blu-Ray has such a big cost premium over DVD, DVD will be very relevant.

I don't doubt that the studios had big aspirations for HDM, but like I said there were signs in the cable/sat industry that HD viewing adoption was going to be slow and by 2006 home video had already peaked several years before.

And there is no way the studios could have foreseen a massive recession that really paved the way for the rise of cheap kisoks, streaming, and mail order.

Blu-Ray will never be the success that DVD was. I really don't know why this is constantly being brought up, and I don't know too many people in 2012 that would say otherwise. But it clearly is successful or it would have been phased out already like other failed formats.
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Old 04-05-2012, 09:07 AM   #2308  
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While DVD and VHS were similar in terms of being in standard definition, the similarities pretty much end there. The form factor. Chapters and special features, no more rewinding tapes, cost for the studios, cost and form factor for retailers. Portability. Capacity for storage.

Honestly, there is really no comparison. Blu-Ray's main attraction over DVD is PQ/AQ and some special feature enhancements. For videophiles and audiophiles Blu-Ray is a big step forward. But as Lee said, it comes down to dollars and cents. As long as Blu-Ray has such a big cost premium over DVD, DVD will be very relevant.

I don't doubt that the studios had big aspirations for HDM, but like I said there were signs in the cable/sat industry that HD viewing adoption was going to be slow and by 2006 home video had already peaked several years before.

And there is no way the studios could have foreseen a massive recession that really paved the way for the rise of cheap kisoks, streaming, and mail order.

Blu-Ray will never be the success that DVD was. I really don't know why this is constantly being brought up, and I don't know too many people in 2012 that would say otherwise. But it clearly is successful or it would have been phased out already like other failed formats.
No, you are right about there being no comparison. But clearly studios were hoping for at least a little more excitement. I think part of the problem that instead of generating excitement, there is dismay at seeing this new format making their existing DVD collection look obsolete. And that tends to turn some off from collecting OD altogether.

And if the definition of success has sunk so low that it simply means that it hasn't been phased out yet, then expectations have fallen sharply indeed.
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Old 04-05-2012, 09:11 AM   #2309  
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Blu-Ray will never be the success that DVD was. I really don't know why this is constantly being brought up, and I don't know too many people in 2012 that would say otherwise. But it clearly is successful or it would have been phased out already like other failed formats.
Like most things in life, success is not a black or white issue. It is many shades of gray.

I don't know why you think it is "successful" because it has not lived up to it's creators original expectations.

DVD makes billions per year for it's creators and supporters while BD only makes hundreds of millions. . . . enough to continue it, but hardly enough to gloat over.
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Old 04-05-2012, 09:20 AM   #2310  
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I did not specifically state that I think the top 10 Blu-ray titles did 80% of the format's revenues. I have stated that as new and recent releases being in that general ballpark. That would be more like the Top 20 Blu-ray titles over time.
Ok, so you think top 20 is around 80% of total Blu-ray revenue, on average. Some weeks more, some weeks less. That still is an extreme dependence on new and recent releases.

By contrast, if you do the math, basing BD T20 being 80%, you'll see that DVD top 20 is only about 30% of its total revenue. So even in bad release weeks, DVD will still break $100 million.
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