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Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

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Old 04-04-2012, 02:50 PM   #2281  
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If the studios truly expected people to rush out and rebuy everything again on Blu-Ray, they should have been paying closer attention to the cable/sat adoption of HD as a better barometer.


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I think most everyone expected it. I don't recall any doubters here when the new HDM formats were at war.
I sure did.

I don't think you can found any evidence that was the case.

Actually I don't think I remember a soul stating that they expected most consumers would rush out and buy all of their DVD collections on Blu-ray or HD DVD immediately even if they were available.

That would have been a pretty ludicrous statement not only with the prices that the new formats were being sold at retail but also with the limited and forecasted numbers of titles available on the formats.
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Old 04-04-2012, 02:59 PM   #2282  
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mikemorel posted this article in the UV thread but it had an interesting quote on 1Q 2012 vs 1Q 2011 OD revenues.

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2. As cute as it is to talk about DVDs massive decline as an unstoppable mud slide, which started in 2006 (ah, to remember 2008, when I was the only one writing about it), this analysts numbers seem to have stopped a year or so ago.

The current numbers show that DVD seems to have, finally, plateaued and that there is some ongoing growth in Blu-ray. It’s not a huge growth business and as I have written before, I think the studios are already angling to get out of the hard disc business… but 5% growth in Q1 2012 over Q1 2011 is the first time the Home Entertainment divisions have seen actual growth in overall disc sales in the last 6 years.

http://moviecitynews.com/2012/04/hom...anks-deadline/

Original post here:

http://www.highdefforum.com/1248553-post580.html
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Old 04-04-2012, 03:05 PM   #2283  
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from another site

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Originally Posted by Bishop_99
I like the trend that is occurring now when compared to last year. Optical up, Blu-ray has a good increase over last year and DVD's have a slight decline but not as big as the previous year I guess? I haven't tracked the DVD trend too much this year though.
DVD has been down a lot less this year as the TBO has been stronger for new releases, the Christmas carryover seemed to have a better DVD genre tail and there was a Twilight Saga title in the 1Q 2012 period and none in Q1 2011 to match with it.

That helps OD as less DVD attrition means less ground that Blu-ray growth has to cover.

Its the first time ever that Blu-ray's growth has fully covered DVD's attrition in a full quarter (so far 1 week remaining in 1Q 2012). 3Q 2011 was close but 1Q 2012 is now better.







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Old 04-04-2012, 04:04 PM   #2284  
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I sure did.

I don't think you can found any evidence that was the case.

Actually I don't think I remember a soul stating that they expected most consumers would rush out and buy all of their DVD collections on Blu-ray or HD DVD immediately even if they were available.

That would have been a pretty ludicrous statement not only with the prices that the new formats were being sold at retail but also with the limited and forecasted numbers of titles available on the formats.
Kosty, we have been over this before. I showed a poll where more than half of the respondents thought Bluray would be as sucessful or more sucessful than DVD. In order for that to happen people would have to rebuy thier collections on Bluray. That is more proof than you have ever shown otherwise. Please show me your proof. Because after years of debating this you have yet to provide any. I certainly have. Do I have to link that poll again? It will have to be later. Not going to search for it and link it on my iPhone. Too much of a hassle. Especially when I think most here know what I am talking about. I think it's crazy that you are still in such denial about this.
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Old 04-04-2012, 04:22 PM   #2285  
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You conveniently ignore that box office was well down in 2011 compared to 2010. So that logically depressed the Blu-ray growth rate last year as well as accelerated it this year to a degree.
BO being down last year 8.2% just makes the comparison worse this year.

2011: Blu-ray +19.4% and BO YoY -8.2%
2012: Blu-ray + 27.8% and BO YoY +22.2%

So it took box office lead-in going from -8.2 percent to plus +22.2 percent, a net difference of 30.4 percent, just to see a modest rise of 8.4 percent in Blu-ray growth.

Are you sure it was "convenient" for me to leave it out?

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A lot of the TBO gain this year is with the Twilight Saga release and that's not a super duper friendly Blu-ray genre. But no doubt that better TBO and release strength helps.
Twilight was friendliER to Blu-ray than to DVD, and we've been over this several times before. It's time to lose that excuse.

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The studios and retailers probably do not care much about DVD hanging around as long as it continues to make $ Billions on dollars in revenues. You are making assumptions on the primary reason for combos there but there is no doubt that its a combination of making more money, satisfying consumer demands and also encouraging the sale and adoption of Blu-ray for the long run.
You're right, the studios don't want DVD to go away while Blu-ray isn't yet up to speed. And the way it looks, it never will be.

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Most of the skus for DVD are for low volume niche movies and for re-purposed or special interest stuff that does not benefit as much from Blu-ray's HD quality. All of the major new releases and a lot of older theatrical movies are coming out or will come out on Blu-ray which is predominately a movie and special event format than the general and miscellaneous release format DVD was and continues to be even now.

Most of the DVD skus released in the past and even now probably are not major theatrical movies and that's where most of Blu-ray releases will be concentrated as a category.
Anything that comes out on Blu-ray will benefit from HD, whether it's special interest, music, documentary, TV shows, Anime, or whatever.
And just because it's low volume doesn't mean it's low profit. Those 9,000 DVD titles that were not released on Blu-ray in 2011 were done so because of lack of interest in the format.
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Old 04-04-2012, 04:39 PM   #2286  
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DVD has been down a lot less this year as the TBO has been stronger for new releases, the Christmas carryover seemed to have a better DVD genre tail and there was a Twilight Saga title in the 1Q 2012 period and none in Q1 2011 to match with it.
So now on top of Twilight you're blaming the Xmas carryover on relatively weak (compared to DVD) Blu-ray Q1 2012 performance. There is no end to the excuses from you.

But that's ridiculous, since all of the top December releases that did over $100 million at the box office had a very good BD share, with the exception of The Help. Planet of the Apes did 49%, Kung Fu Panda 2 did 36%, The Hangover II 44%, Cowboys & Aliens 55%, The Smurfs 42%. The Help only did 24% but then, that's the average share for Blu-ray anyway. A lot of BLu-ray friendly titles there Kosty.

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Its the first time ever that Blu-ray's growth has fully covered DVD's attrition in a full quarter (so far 1 week remaining in 1Q 2012). 3Q 2011 was close but 1Q 2012 is now better.
And you scold me for "conveniently" forgetting to account for box office lead-in.
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Old 04-04-2012, 04:43 PM   #2287  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
mikemorel posted this article in the UV thread but it had an interesting quote on 1Q 2012 vs 1Q 2011 OD revenues.




http://moviecitynews.com/2012/04/hom...anks-deadline/

Original post here:

http://www.highdefforum.com/1248553-post580.html
And not one mention (box office lead-in up 22%) of the reason why OD is up. Very informative article and insightful quote there Kosty.
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Old 04-04-2012, 04:49 PM   #2288  
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But no matter what Blu-ray catalog sales are never ever in a million years be like DVD was in its peak years when all those movies were released on digital home media on DVD for the first time.
Actually, DVD was the second go around for catalog. Home video was new with VHS. DVD was a big step up, but it was still SD. Mal is correct in his observation that studios expected/hoped that consumers would want to yet again upgrade their collection to Blu-ray, since it is the first time that most of these movies are available in HD.
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Old 04-04-2012, 05:36 PM   #2289  
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Actually, DVD was the second go around for catalog. Home video was new with VHS. DVD was a big step up, but it was still SD. Mal is correct in his observation that studios expected/hoped that consumers would want to yet again upgrade their collection to Blu-ray, since it is the first time that most of these movies are available in HD.
Thank you Bruce. Why wouldn't anyone think that? On the heals of the very successful DVD we have a new format that delivers our movies in stunning HD! I made the mistake of confusing my enthusiasm with the average consumer. Most people did. Including those in that poll I talked about. As did the studios. To deny this is to be in denial.
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Old 04-04-2012, 06:07 PM   #2290  
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Thank you Bruce. Why wouldn't anyone think that? On the heals of the very successful DVD we have a new format that delivers our movies in stunning HD! I made the mistake of confusing my enthusiasm with the average consumer. Most people did. Including those in that poll I talked about. As did the studios. To deny this is to be in denial.
The difference between Videophiles . . . and Joe Public

Joe values dollars and cents over pixels. Always will.
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Old 04-04-2012, 06:15 PM   #2291  
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The difference between Videophiles . . . and Joe Public

Joe values dollars and cents over pixels. Always will.
Something that the studios underestimated. Demand for HDTVs were high mostly because of the form factor rather than the increase in pixels. Blu-ray has the same form as DVD, except with more pixels and a higher price.
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Old 04-04-2012, 06:40 PM   #2292  
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Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post
The difference between Videophiles . . . and Joe Public

Joe values dollars and cents over pixels. Always will.
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Something that the studios underestimated. Demand for HDTVs were high mostly because of the form factor rather than the increase in pixels. Blu-ray has the same form as DVD, except with more pixels and a higher price.
Yup. To think otherwise you are just out of touch or not being honest.
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Old 04-04-2012, 07:14 PM   #2293  
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Something that the studios underestimated. Demand for HDTVs were high mostly because of the form factor rather than the increase in pixels. Blu-ray has the same form as DVD, except with more pixels and a higher price.
BINGO!

The "George Jetson Hang-On-The-Wall TV" became a reality and with prices that fell so quickly, it was within reach of the large majority of Joe Pubic households.

Last edited by Lee Stewart; 04-04-2012 at 07:18 PM..
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Old 04-04-2012, 07:52 PM   #2294  
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Actually, DVD was the second go around for catalog. Home video was new with VHS. DVD was a big step up, but it was still SD. Mal is correct in his observation that studios expected/hoped that consumers would want to yet again upgrade their collection to Blu-ray, since it is the first time that most of these movies are available in HD.
I specifically mentioned "digital" home media as Blu-ray was not as much an upgrade over digital DVD as DVD was over analog VHS. Besides from the get go DVD was priced as a ownership collectable format while VHS was a rental dominated format for much of its lifecycle.
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Old 04-04-2012, 07:53 PM   #2295  
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BINGO!

The "George Jetson Hang-On-The-Wall TV" became a reality and with prices that fell so quickly, it was within reach of the large majority of Joe Pubic households.
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Something that the studios underestimated. Demand for HDTVs were high mostly because of the form factor rather than the increase in pixels. Blu-ray has the same form as DVD, except with more pixels and a higher price.
I agree that much of the thrill of HDTV ownership was the form factor and the native ability of the display to make even standard definition stuff look bigger and better.
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