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Old 04-03-2012, 04:01 PM   #2266  
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Thanks for the info Cakefoo. The next few weeks should be interesting because that's when the 2011 pre-September heavy hitters came out.

The Q1 2011 vs. 2012 comparisons favor this year, thanks to Hunger Games.

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Old 04-03-2012, 04:05 PM   #2267  
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Here are the releases already scheduled and the $25 M and $10 M box office performing titles without release date with estimated projected release dates based on seasonal ARRs.





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Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
Next 4 weeks should let 2011 catch up a little in terms of fair comparisons.

Q4 2011 BO - http://boxofficemojo.com/quarterly/?...ew=releasedate

Still has Ghost Protocol and Sherlock Holmes, roughly $400M combined for those two.

Q4 2010 BO - http://boxofficemojo.com/quarterly/?...ew=releasedate

Still has Tron, Tangled and Harry Potter, $670M combined.






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Old 04-03-2012, 04:16 PM   #2268  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Thanks for the info Cakefoo. The next few weeks should be interesting because that's when the 2011 pre-September heavy hitters came out.

The Q1 2011 vs. 2012 comparisons favor this year, thanks to Hunger Games.

You are right. The next three weeks is when Easter happened and Tangled, Tron Legacy and Harry Potter 7.1 came out.

Once we get past those comparison weeks there is not much in 2011 let until September. Just True Grit and a summer release or two.

What we get for YoY cumulative gain after the next three weeks will have some momentum and inertia through most of the 2Q and the first part of the 3Q.











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Old 04-03-2012, 04:59 PM   #2269  
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You are right. The next three weeks is when Easter happened and Tangled, Tron Legacy and Harry Potter 7.1 came out.
Did Easter happen this year too?
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Old 04-03-2012, 10:16 PM   #2270  
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Did Easter happen this year too?
Not yet. It's this weekend.

What I meant is that the Easter holiday weekend is another high volume week, especially for family titles and it was coincident with the release of those high volume titles from last year.

Last year it was the week Tron: Legacy Little Fockers and Narnia came out. It was the second week of 2Q in that burst of heavy volume weeks.

Easter weekend this year is week ending 04/08/11 with War Horse ($80 M) and We Bought a Zoo ($75 M) as the leasing titles and that's not quite as Blu-ray friendly as Tron: Legacy nor the same TBO.


Once we get past those weeks and the head to head with Harry Potter 7.1 it gets better for the 2011 matchups for both Blu-ray and DVD all the way through mid September.

It will be interesting to see where the YoY cumulative metrics are after we get past mid April of this year.


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Old 04-04-2012, 12:02 AM   #2271  
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I dont think people want "better" yoy comparisons- they want evwn comparisons so they can easily compare the actual growth.
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Old 04-04-2012, 12:51 AM   #2272  
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I dont think people want "better" yoy comparisons- they want evwn comparisons so they can easily compare the actual growth.
I meant that the comparisons would be better for the 2012 metrics in the sense that they would be more favorable to 2012 after that period when as the matching releases in 2011 would be less strong.

I understand the concept of wanting to see a time when the TBO strength of 2012 vs 2011 was more or less even as that would make it a more apples to apples comparison where the release strength could be discounted as a factor. I agree that the next few weeks coming up will swing the pendulum back a bit there in the current TBO advantage so that "better" more even TBO strength matchup will be clearer.
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Old 04-04-2012, 07:51 AM   #2273  
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All this talk has got me thinking. If Bluray has to rely on releases to increase from here on out? Seems to me it may have peaked already. There is always going to be up and down years for any format. DVD must have had them. Yet its growth pushed it forward for many years to levels Bluray will never see. Same with VHS. It seems like releases are affecting Bluray prematurely. To me that sounds like the format has peaked or is very very close to it. Any thoughts?
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Old 04-04-2012, 08:38 AM   #2274  
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All this talk has got me thinking. If Bluray has to rely on releases to increase from here on out? Seems to me it may have peaked already. There is always going to be up and down years for any format. DVD must have had them. Yet its growth pushed it forward for many years to levels Bluray will never see. Same with VHS. It seems like releases are affecting Bluray prematurely. To me that sounds like the format has peaked or is very very close to it. Any thoughts?
Well it certainly looks like any rapid growth phases are over. Last year growth only 20% and this year it's up 27% on the strength of box office lead-in up a whopping 22%. It's hard to say what the growth would be with zero box office YoY improvement, but it certainly would be a lot less than it is now.

What is throttling Blu-ray's growth is the resilience of DVD. Market share this year is 23%, only 4% higher than it was last year. The studios apparently have overestimated the consumer's interest in Blu-ray. Now they are selling everything as combo packs in order to entice interest in the format.

Moreover the output volume even now still pales that of DVD. Six years after the introduction of BLu-ray, DVD is releasing six times the volume. That is an amazing discrepancy at this stage of the game and certainly not a show of confidence for the new format.

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Old 04-04-2012, 09:14 AM   #2275  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Well it certainly looks like any rapid growth phases are over. Last year growth only 20% and this year it's up 27% on the strength of box office lead-in up a whopping 22%. It's hard to say what the growth would be with zero box office YoY improvement, but it certainly would be a lot less than it is now.

What is throttling Blu-ray's growth is the resilience of DVD. Market share this year is 23%, only 4% higher than it was last year. The studios apparently have overestimated the consumer's interest in Blu-ray. Now they are selling everything as combo packs in order to entice interest in the format.

Moreover the output volume even now still pales that of DVD. Six years after the introduction of BLu-ray, DVD is releasing six times the volume. That is an amazing discrepancy at this stage of the game and certainly not a show of confidence for the new format.
I don't see why interest in Blu-Ray should be much different than other high def or premium mediums. For example HD cable/sat. The vast majority of channels are still in SD and the vast majority of content viewed through cable/sat is in SD. Many people that own HDTV's are not even getting high def channels, and those that are, still watch a lot of SD.

As long as the studios treat Blu-Ray as a premium product, you will see cheaper SD alternatives remain very popular IMHO. And you also have to look at the cost to provide content in SD vs HD. There is a reason why so many channels are still in SD, and DVD has so many more releases than Blu-Ray.

I just don't see it as an either/or scenario and I don't believe the studios do either. I don't see any intent to kill off SD media whether it be DVD or cable/sat programming. And we clearly can say the same for straming as well. SD content dominates Netflix and Amazon for example.
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Old 04-04-2012, 09:29 AM   #2276  
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I don't see why interest in Blu-Ray should be much different than other high def or premium mediums. For example HD cable/sat. The vast majority of channels are still in SD and the vast majority of content viewed through cable/sat is in SD. Many people that own HDTV's are not even getting high def channels, and those that are, still watch a lot of SD.

As long as the studios treat Blu-Ray as a premium product, you will see cheaper SD alternatives remain very popular IMHO. And you also have to look at the cost to provide content in SD vs HD. There is a reason why so many channels are still in SD, and DVD has so many more releases than Blu-Ray.

I just don't see it as an either/or scenario and I don't believe the studios do either. I don't see any intent to kill off SD media whether it be DVD or cable/sat programming. And we clearly can say the same for straming as well. SD content dominates Netflix and Amazon for example.

Well the progression is there, it's just slower than what many expected it to be. HD enthusiasts like us tend to have higher expectations I guess. Eventually the studios will release Blu-ray only versions (or combo only) and phase out DVD, and eventually the cable/sat providers will drop SD channels in favor of more HD channels. It's all fed by HDTV adoption and it all trickles down from there.

Speaking of HD channels, my wife is a big fan of Univision soap operas, and when they finally came out with an HD version of that channel, it was a massive improvement. I think any consumer with an HDTV that see that kind of improvement plus the elimination of the black bars will be hooked. Just an awareness thing more than anything.

By contrast, upscaled DVD looks very comparable to cable/sat HD, so there is little motivation to upgrade to Blu-ray, especially since there are no black bars to eliminate like there are when upgrading from SD cable/sat to HD cable/sat.
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Old 04-04-2012, 10:20 AM   #2277  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Well the progression is there, it's just slower than what many expected it to be. HD enthusiasts like us tend to have higher expectations I guess. Eventually the studios will release Blu-ray only versions (or combo only) and phase out DVD, and eventually the cable/sat providers will drop SD channels in favor of more HD channels. It's all fed by HDTV adoption and it all trickles down from there.
Yes, you would think with the cheap price of a Blu-Ray player and the fact that many Americans own an HDTV that there would be faster progression. As you mention, we are enthusiasts, so for us, it is a pretty easy decision when deciding to buy or rent a hidef title vs SD title. But I look at my parents. They have a 50" HDTV and a Blu-Ray player and my mom still rents and buys the DVD when the Blu-Ray version is available many times. I don't even think it is conscious, she just picks up the cheaper copy.

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Speaking of HD channels, my wife is a big fan of Univision soap operas, and when they finally came out with an HD version of that channel, it was a massive improvement. I think any consumer with an HDTV that see that kind of improvement plus the elimination of the black bars will be hooked. Just an awareness thing more than anything.
I honestly cannot even stand to watch SD channels anymore on sat. Especially on a 125" screen, but even on a 42" plasma that handles SD pretty good, it is just not tolerable. My wife is pretty much there as well, but I still am amazed when I go to someones house who owns an HDTV and they are watching a prime time TV show on the SD channel when they actually have the HD channel available to them. I do agree with you, it will take time and awareness, and as you mention, the difference is noticeable.

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By contrast, upscaled DVD looks very comparable to cable/sat HD, so there is little motivation to upgrade to Blu-ray, especially since there are no black bars to eliminate like there are when upgrading from SD cable/sat to HD cable/sat.
I think some titles upscale well on DVD and others not so much, but it is more of a price thing. I just don't think most Americans are going to rush out and rebuy a movie they own on DVD again on Blu-Ray. As you said, it is good enough for them and they already own the movie. But there are enough enthusiasts out there to support the catalog market, but not enough to ever propel Blu-Ray to DVD heights. Especially with so many other cheaper alternatives out there like Netflix streaming, and all the on-demand cable and sat channels and other competing entertainment options like gaming, social media, internet, etc.

If the studios truly expected people to rush out and rebuy everything again on Blu-Ray, they should have been paying closer attention to the cable/sat adoption of HD as a better barometer.
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Old 04-04-2012, 02:03 PM   #2278  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ack_bak View Post
Yes, you would think with the cheap price of a Blu-Ray player and the fact that many Americans own an HDTV that there would be faster progression. As you mention, we are enthusiasts, so for us, it is a pretty easy decision when deciding to buy or rent a hidef title vs SD title. But I look at my parents. They have a 50" HDTV and a Blu-Ray player and my mom still rents and buys the DVD when the Blu-Ray version is available many times. I don't even think it is conscious, she just picks up the cheaper copy.



I honestly cannot even stand to watch SD channels anymore on sat. Especially on a 125" screen, but even on a 42" plasma that handles SD pretty good, it is just not tolerable. My wife is pretty much there as well, but I still am amazed when I go to someones house who owns an HDTV and they are watching a prime time TV show on the SD channel when they actually have the HD channel available to them. I do agree with you, it will take time and awareness, and as you mention, the difference is noticeable.



I think some titles upscale well on DVD and others not so much, but it is more of a price thing. I just don't think most Americans are going to rush out and rebuy a movie they own on DVD again on Blu-Ray. As you said, it is good enough for them and they already own the movie. But there are enough enthusiasts out there to support the catalog market, but not enough to ever propel Blu-Ray to DVD heights. Especially with so many other cheaper alternatives out there like Netflix streaming, and all the on-demand cable and sat channels and other competing entertainment options like gaming, social media, internet, etc.

If the studios truly expected people to rush out and rebuy everything again on Blu-Ray, they should have been paying closer attention to the cable/sat adoption of HD as a better barometer.
I think most everyone expected it. I don't recall any doubters here when the new HDM formats were at war.
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Old 04-04-2012, 02:35 PM   #2279  
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Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
All this talk has got me thinking. If Bluray has to rely on releases to increase from here on out? Seems to me it may have peaked already. There is always going to be up and down years for any format. DVD must have had them. Yet its growth pushed it forward for many years to levels Bluray will never see. Same with VHS. It seems like releases are affecting Bluray prematurely. To me that sounds like the format has peaked or is very very close to it. Any thoughts?
Blu-ray has a high percentage of new release marketshare already and has a large portion of its sales coming from day and date and recently released new release sales.

As Blu-ray marketshare and volumes increase for new releases over time its sales revenues and unit volumes will continue to rise.

As Blu-ray average unit sold prices have stabilized now from year to year the Blu-ray unit volume increases will also more directly translate into revenue gains as well.

Its almost a separate revenue contribution track for gains made from the growing sales of new to Blu-ray and older release catalog titles on Blu-ray. That's steadily increasing over time as well even though its scale is still smaller and its overshadowed by the gains in Blu-ray new release sales.

As Blu-ray household penetration continues to rise each fall and over time as more Blu-ray catalog titles get released and displace DVD only titles at retail, Blu-ray catalog sales will add more and more to the overall Blu-ray revenue stream over time.

But no matter what Blu-ray catalog sales are never ever in a million years be like DVD was in its peak years when all those movies were released on digital home media on DVD for the first time.
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Old 04-04-2012, 02:44 PM   #2280  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Well it certainly looks like any rapid growth phases are over. Last year growth only 20% and this year it's up 27% on the strength of box office lead-in up a whopping 22%. It's hard to say what the growth would be with zero box office YoY improvement, but it certainly would be a lot less than it is now.
You conveniently ignore that box office was well down in 2011 compared to 2010. So that logically depressed the Blu-ray growth rate last year as well as accelerated it this year to a degree.

A lot of the TBO gain this year is with the Twilight Saga release and that's not a super duper friendly Blu-ray genre. But no doubt that better TBO and release strength helps.

Quote:
What is throttling Blu-ray's growth is the resilience of DVD. Market share this year is 23%, only 4% higher than it was last year. The studios apparently have overestimated the consumer's interest in Blu-ray. Now they are selling everything as combo packs in order to entice interest in the format.
The studios and retailers probably do not care much about DVD hanging around as long as it continues to make $ Billions on dollars in revenues. You are making assumptions on the primary reason for combos there but there is no doubt that its a combination of making more money, satisfying consumer demands and also encouraging the sale and adoption of Blu-ray for the long run.

Quote:
Moreover the output volume even now still pales that of DVD. Six years after the introduction of BLu-ray, DVD is releasing six times the volume. That is an amazing discrepancy at this stage of the game and certainly not a show of confidence for the new format.
Most of the skus for DVD are for low volume niche movies and for re-purposed or special interest stuff that does not benefit as much from Blu-ray's HD quality. All of the major new releases and a lot of older theatrical movies are coming out or will come out on Blu-ray which is predominately a movie and special event format than the general and miscellaneous release format DVD was and continues to be even now.

Most of the DVD skus released in the past and even now probably are not major theatrical movies and that's where most of Blu-ray releases will be concentrated as a category.
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