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Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

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Old 04-01-2012, 11:48 AM   #2236  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
DEG doesn't chart Blu-ray and DVD separately, but they did say how much each format did in sell-through. Only the separate rental revenue is unavailable for 2011.
Well, not quite...

The 2010 DEG made it clear - $1.8 billion in blu-ray sales, and $2.3 billion in sales + rentals. Therefore $0.5 billion in rentals.

The DEG’s Year-End 2011 Home Entertainment Report didn't make results clear:
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Annual Spending on Blu-ray Discs Jumps 20 Percent Hitting $2 Billion for First Time
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Blu-ray Disc has evolved to become the standard for home entertainment. Impressively, both new release and catalog sales saw double digit growth of 20 percent in 2011.
The 20% sales growth and $2 billion in sales didn't work too well with $1.8 billion from the previous year. And, as you say, nothing about blu-ray rentals.

Therefore it was difficult for mainstream news outlets to comment on blu-ray growth. No "sound bite" there for the press to work with.

To this day, I don't believe I have ever seen "blu-ray sales were $2.15 billion in 2011, according to the DEG" in news articles.
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Old 04-01-2012, 12:11 PM   #2237  
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Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post
Well, not quite...

The 2010 DEG made it clear - $1.8 billion in blu-ray sales, and $2.3 billion in sales + rentals. Therefore $0.5 billion in rentals.

The DEG’s Year-End 2011 Home Entertainment Report didn't make results clear:


The 20% sales growth and $2 billion in sales didn't work too well with $1.8 billion from the previous year. And, as you say, nothing about blu-ray rentals.

Therefore it was difficult for mainstream news outlets to comment on blu-ray growth. No "sound bite" there for the press to work with.

To this day, I don't believe I have ever seen "blu-ray sales were $2.15 billion in 2011, according to the DEG" in news articles.
That's right, last year Blu-ray did $0.5 billion in rentals, but no such breakdown was given this year.

Regarding sell-through, it was reported through the media that DVD did $6.8 billion. Therefore, the remainder is $8.95 billion - $6.8 billion = $2.15 billion. It also jives with the 19% YoY (19.44% actually) that was reported for Blu-ray(or 20%, depending on where you read it).

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Consumers spent $18 billion buying and renting discs and on digital movies in 2011, a 2% decrease from 2010, the Digital Entertainment Group (DEG) will report Tuesday.

Sales of Blu-ray discs topped $2 billion for the first time, up 19% from 2010. But DVD sales dropped 20% to $6.8 billion.
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/st...011/52473310/1
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Old 04-01-2012, 05:54 PM   #2238  
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Also the reported growth in digital is deceptive because it shows $1 billion in new streaming revenue. Streaming is cannibalizing cable/sat premium channels, and not OD rental. Since cable/sat premium movie channel revenue is not included in the DEG report, then neither should streaming.
That report also transferred the revenues that were previously attributed to DVD rental in the Netflix DVD+streaming plans into streaming SVOD rental categories. A lot of the SVOD category also was the accounting and real shift of Netflix revenues that were previously accounted as physical disc rental revenues to the new separate digital SVOD rental category.

So some of the physical disc rental decline was the shifted allocation of Netflix disc and rental subscription streaming into digital rentals. Some of it was as well the new Netflix streaming customers that were not previous customers as well so that indeed is new to the report. You are right that some of those is from the shift from cable/sat premium VOD into Netflix as well. But not all.

But Netflix streaming is also a substitute for Netflix DVD rental and its a new digital revenue stream from Netflix that has been a major part of the rental revenue stream from previous reports. Its also a large part of the growing digital rental revenue segment. That's why they included it. Its not quite like cable/sat that its taking some revenues from. But is also like cable sat VOD which is also in that digital rental category as well.

Last edited by Kosty; 04-01-2012 at 06:27 PM..
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Old 04-01-2012, 06:14 PM   #2239  
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Bruce: What it your best estimate of the DEG split for the following?:




I need:

W = 2010 DVD sell through and rental
X = 2011 DVD sell through and rental

Y = 2010 Blu-ray sell through and rental
Z = 2011 Blu-ray sell though and rental



That's composed of the following pieces we have from the EOY 2011 DEG report ($ in millions)


+________2010 DVD sell through
+________2010 Blu-ray sell through

=$10,829.15



+________2010 Blu-ray rental
+________2010 DVD rental

=$5,850.56



+________2011 Blu-ray sell through
+________2011 DVD sell through

=$9,505.47



+________2011 Blu-ray rental
+________2011 DVD rental

=$5,673.19











Last edited by Kosty; 04-01-2012 at 06:36 PM..
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Old 04-01-2012, 06:33 PM   #2240  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
I wish that chart showed Bluray and DVD separately. Then it would be easier to see how poorly Bluray is Actually doing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
DEG doesn't chart Blu-ray and DVD separately, but they did say how much each format did in sell-through. Only the separate rental revenue is unavailable for 2011.

If bruceames can give me his best estimate for the 2010 and 2011 sellthrough+rental splits for Blu-ray and DVD I'll make up a new graph that does exactly that.

What I need to make that chart is to get the following that matches the final 2011 totals:



I need:

W = 2010 DVD sell through and rental
X = 2011 DVD sell through and rental

Y = 2010 Blu-ray sell through and rental
Z = 2011 Blu-ray sell though and rental

Last edited by Kosty; 04-01-2012 at 06:37 PM..
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Old 04-01-2012, 06:41 PM   #2241  
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Quote:
That's right, last year Blu-ray did $0.5 billion in rentals, but no such breakdown was given this year.
Didn't we see some report of the percentage of Blu-ray rental growth in 2011 over 2010? If we know that it was X% over $500 M in 2010 that would give us a guess for Blu-ray rental income in 2011.

Or if we had DVD only rental income from 2010 and 2011.
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Old 04-01-2012, 06:53 PM   #2242  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Bruce: What it your best estimate of the DEG split for the following?:


From the EOY 2011 DEG report ($ in millions)


+________2010 DVD sell through
+________2010 Blu-ray sell through

=$10,829.15



+________2010 Blu-ray rental
+________2010 DVD rental

=$5,850.56



+________2011 Blu-ray sell through
+________2011 DVD sell through

=$9,505.47



+________2011 Blu-ray rental
+________2011 DVD rental

=$5,673.19
Code:
Year Total   DVDsell  DVDrent  BDsell  BDrent	% rent	% BD

1999	1.1	0.96	0.14	0.00	0.00	12.5%	0.0%
2000	2.4	1.82	0.58	0.00	0.00	24.0%	0.0%
2001	5.3	4.21	1.09	0.00	0.00	20.6%	0.0%
2002	8.6	6.45	2.15	0.00	0.00	25.0%	0.0%
2003	13.1	9.44	3.66	0.00	0.00	28.0%	0.0%
2004	16.7	12.45	4.25	0.00	0.00	25.5%	0.0%
2005	18.9	13.51	5.39	0.00	0.00	28.5%	0.0%
2006	20.2	13.89	6.29	0.02	0.00	31.1%	0.1%
2007	20.0	13.38	6.31*	0.25	0.05*	32.1%	1.8%
2008	19.3	12.48	5.92	0.63	0.27	33.0%	5.0%
2009	17.3	10.55	5.25	1.07	0.43	32.8%	9.2%
2010	16.2	8.50	5.35	1.80	0.50	36.2%  17.5%
2011	14.6	6.80	4.90*	2.15	0.77*	38.8%  24.0%
*= estimate

Kosty, the sell-through totals you have above include EST. You can fill in the blanks with the table I made.
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Old 04-01-2012, 06:59 PM   #2243  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
That report also transferred the revenues that were previously attributed to DVD rental in the Netflix DVD+streaming plans into streaming SVOD rental categories. A lot of the SVOD category also was the accounting and real shift of Netflix revenues that were previously accounted as physical disc rental revenues to the new separate digital SVOD rental category.

So some of the physical disc rental decline was the shifted allocation of Netflix disc and rental subscription streaming into digital rentals. Some of it was as well the new Netflix streaming customers that were not previous customers as well so that indeed is new to the report. You are right that some of those is from the shift from cable/sat premium VOD into Netflix as well. But not all.
I know they shifted it from OD rental. I think I calculated it at around $400-$450 million in 2010. If that were extracted from OD 2010 rental then 2010 rental would actually be up and not down.
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Old 04-01-2012, 07:03 PM   #2244  
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under revision

Last edited by Kosty; 04-01-2012 at 07:08 PM..
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Old 04-01-2012, 07:04 PM   #2245  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Didn't we see some report of the percentage of Blu-ray rental growth in 2011 over 2010? If we know that it was X% over $500 M in 2010 that would give us a guess for Blu-ray rental income in 2011.

Or if we had DVD only rental income from 2010 and 2011.
Never saw anything for BD rental all year. I just took a guess at it and noted it with an asterisk.
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Old 04-01-2012, 07:06 PM   #2246  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Code:
Year Total   DVDsell  DVDrent  BDsell  BDrent	% rent	% BD

1999	1.1	0.96	0.14	0.00	0.00	12.5%	0.0%
2000	2.4	1.82	0.58	0.00	0.00	24.0%	0.0%
2001	5.3	4.21	1.09	0.00	0.00	20.6%	0.0%
2002	8.6	6.45	2.15	0.00	0.00	25.0%	0.0%
2003	13.1	9.44	3.66	0.00	0.00	28.0%	0.0%
2004	16.7	12.45	4.25	0.00	0.00	25.5%	0.0%
2005	18.9	13.51	5.39	0.00	0.00	28.5%	0.0%
2006	20.2	13.89	6.29	0.02	0.00	31.1%	0.1%
2007	20.0	13.38	6.31*	0.25	0.05*	32.1%	1.8%
2008	19.3	12.48	5.92	0.63	0.27	33.0%	5.0%
2009	17.3	10.55	5.25	1.07	0.43	32.8%	9.2%
2010	16.2	8.50	5.35	1.80	0.50	36.2%  17.5%
2011	14.6	6.80	4.90*	2.15	0.77*	38.8%  24.0%
*= estimate

Kosty, the sell-through totals you have above include EST. You can fill in the blanks with the table I made.
Thanks.
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Old 04-01-2012, 07:13 PM   #2247  
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OK here's the chart with that split between DVD and Blu-ray in 2010 and 2011.

Spoiler:







Slides updated below

Last edited by Kosty; 04-02-2012 at 11:10 AM..
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Old 04-01-2012, 07:20 PM   #2248  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Never saw anything for BD rental all year. I just took a guess at it and noted it with an asterisk.
I think that is a good guess. That's pretty close to what I came up with, a little lower but good enough. I'm told that was order of magnitude correct. I used your numbers in the chart.
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Old 04-01-2012, 10:23 PM   #2249  
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Nice job. But why no DVD and Bluray split? I want to see DVD sell through and Bluray sell through separated. Thanks.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
OK here's the chart with that split between DVD and Blu-ray in 2010 and 2011.





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Old 04-01-2012, 10:41 PM   #2250  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
Nice job. But why no DVD and Bluray split? I want to see DVD sell through and Bluray sell through separated. Thanks.
Sorry.

I do not have that historical data for the separate sell through data for the years 1997 through 2009 only the combined sell through and rental numbers.

That new chart is the same format for the DEG data that I had done before since 2007 I think when I first graphed out the DEG data.

I'll try to make up a chart using bruceames table soon.


EDIT: New charts added to the group in the following post.

Last edited by Kosty; 04-01-2012 at 11:15 PM..
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