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Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

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Old 03-30-2012, 10:48 AM   #2206  
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Originally Posted by Ray Von Geezer View Post
Sorry to be Mr. Thicky, but can you guys answer me a question?

When you're talking about box office revenue in the context of OD revenue being up or down, as in the paragraph above, you are talking about the BO revenue for the OD titles coming to market, so for the Muppet's you're talking about last year's BO? It's just that makes it sound like it's this year's BO being compared?

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I'm of course talking about the box office power of the titles coming out on Blu-ray and DVD. It would make zero sense to be comparing this year's theatrical box office with this year OD performance, as those movies haven't been released yet on OD.
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Old 03-30-2012, 10:54 AM   #2207  
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Originally Posted by Ray Von Geezer View Post
Sorry to be Mr. Thicky, but can you guys answer me a question?

When you're talking about box office revenue in the context of OD revenue being up or down, as in the paragraph above, you are talking about the BO revenue for the OD titles coming to market, so for the Muppet's you're talking about last year's BO? It's just that makes it sound like it's this year's BO being compared?

Cheers,

Ray Von
In this context, we are talking about the box office performance of the titles that have already reached home video, what we are usually calling the Total Box Office or TBO. HMM publishes that each week for all releases and bruceames slightly modifies that in taking out the non Blu-ray titles. That includes 2011 releases that hit home video in 2012 as the normal delay time from theatrical release to home video is 3-4 months.

In a greater sense the box office performance of 2012 titles including releases still in theaters in also way up in 2012 and that includes recent titles like John Carter and The Hunger Games. Those titles will probably maintain the home video TBO for most of the year and keep that advantage for 2012 over 2011 in home video TBO up for a while if not through the end of the year.

The strength of releases strongly affects the DVD and Blu-ray sales performance and its been well up so far this year.



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Old 03-30-2012, 10:57 AM   #2208  
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I'm of course talking about the box office power of the titles coming out on Blu-ray and DVD. It would make zero sense to be comparing this year's theatrical box office with this year OD performance, as those movies haven't been released yet on OD.
Yeah, that exactly what I thought, that's why your comments about "this quarter" and "BO being up from last year" made me wonder.

Ta for the clarification.

Ray Von
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Old 03-30-2012, 10:59 AM   #2209  
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Its Nielsen Videoscan first alert data so its kinda hard to argue with in the actual percentages being reported so its valid data for the NV reported Blu-ray unit share and the index number comparisons with the other releases.
I know it takes a lot for you to question any data, but if it was an error, it wouldn't be the first time. Remember Iron Man getting 10%? Of course, since that was low, that would arouse your suspicions more that 54% Muppets would.
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Old 03-30-2012, 11:00 AM   #2210  
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And how so? According to The-Numbers, which DOES account for Walmart, the share is virtually the same, as evidenced by them mirroring the NVC ratios to within 1% across all titles.
It should be closer than before but still shifted to slightly less Blu-ray unit marketshare if Walmart is included especially for high volume DVD leaning genre titles that Walmart does higher volumes.

Tom K Arnold just mentioned in a weekly writeup that Nielsen Videoscan first alert still does not include Walmart. HMM previously had mentioned that Walmart's share of the Blu-ray market has been closing on its 40% DVD share since last fall so the variation with or without Walmart in the data should be less since early last fall in any case than it was in years past.

As I have said now many times, I think its understandable that The-Numbers would have the most difficulty in estimating Walmart sales as everybody does as Walmart does not play well with others with sales data.
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Old 03-30-2012, 11:01 AM   #2211  
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Yeah, that exactly what I thought, that's why your comments about "this quarter" and "BO being up from last year" made me wonder.

Ta for the clarification.

Ray Von

My bad because I worded it wrong. I should have said box office power or box office lead-in to begin with. Thanks for pointing that out.
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Old 03-30-2012, 11:02 AM   #2212  
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Originally Posted by Ray Von Geezer View Post
Yeah, that exactly what I thought, that's why your comments about "this quarter" and "BO being up from last year" made me wonder.

Ta for the clarification.

Ray Von
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Made me laugh out loud.
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Old 03-30-2012, 11:06 AM   #2213  
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As I have said now many times, I think its understandable that The-Numbers would have the most difficulty in estimating Walmart sales as everybody does as Walmart does not play well with others with sales data.

The-Numbers have difficulty in estimating anything. They only estimate one number for the top title, fill in the blanks for the rest using the NVS cheat sheet (which doesn't estimate Walmart), and then claims that Walmart IS included in their figures. What a joke.
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Old 03-30-2012, 11:09 AM   #2214  
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I know it takes a lot for you to question any data, but if it was an error, it wouldn't be the first time. Remember Iron Man getting 10%? Of course, since that was low, that would arouse your suspicions more that 54% Muppets would.
Sure its possible, but I think Rentrak is showing similar data and that high percentage seems to be consistent with other reports and observations I have seen.

I would not hold your hopes up that it was a mistake, but we will see soon enough. If its an error NV will correct it in the data.

54% for The Muppets is higher than expected but its still consistent with growing Blu-ray share for all genres and for family titles. But lke I said the actual spilt taking into account Walmart will be less as its pretty likely the title did pretty well at Walmart last week.

Plus as a family title with a Friday release date it will have good weekend sales and the Sun-Sat Home Media Magazine weekly revenue stats will only capture the two days of Friday and Saturday sales and the first Sunday will fall into the next revenue reporting week as well.
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Old 03-30-2012, 11:16 AM   #2215  
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The-Numbers have difficulty in estimating anything. They only estimate one number for the top title, fill in the blanks for the rest using the NVS cheat sheet (which doesn't estimate Walmart), and then claims that Walmart IS included in their figures. What a joke.
That's your allegation but I think there is more small variations than that. The index numbers vary a small bit from that and the Blu-ray marketshares calculate out to have some small variations as well. Its not like they totally crib the numbers off the index numbers on the Blu-ray Top 20 chart. Its close but not exact and in the past had some variations that you might expect for DVD friendly titles that would do well at Walmart.

At the vary least they vary it a bit from the NV data but its supposed to be close in any case so its not unexpected that it is at all. But its perfectly legitimate for them to use the NV data as a sanity check.

In any case, its still useful as a scaling of the NV index numbers into something tangible in the way of an actual unit estimate that they are doing so we do not have too. Its their data estimates then not ours.
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Old 03-30-2012, 11:21 AM   #2216  
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Sure its possible, but I think Rentrak is showing similar data and that high percentage seems to be consistent with other reports and observations I have seen.

I would not hold your hopes up that it was a mistake, but we will see soon enough. If its an error NV will correct it in the data.

54% for The Muppets is higher than expected but its still consistent with growing Blu-ray share for all genres and for family titles. But lke I said the actual spilt taking into account Walmart will be less as its pretty likely the title did pretty well at Walmart last week.

Plus as a family title with a Friday release date it will have good weekend sales and the Sun-Sat Home Media Magazine weekly revenue stats will only capture the two days of Friday and Saturday sales and the first Sunday will fall into the next revenue reporting week as well.
I just said it was possible, and now you're saying I'm hoping for it? Geez, you were the one that brought it up to begin with. I'm not emotionally involved in this stuff as you are, so I couldn't care less if it was a mistake or not.
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Old 03-30-2012, 11:29 AM   #2217  
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That's your allegation but I think there is more small variations than that. The index numbers vary a small bit from that and the Blu-ray marketshares calculate out to have some small variations as well. Its not like they totally crib the numbers off the index numbers on the Blu-ray Top 20 chart. Its close but not exact and in the past had some variations that you might expect for DVD friendly titles that would do well at Walmart.

At the vary least they vary it a bit from the NV data but its supposed to be close in any case so its not unexpected that it is at all. But its perfectly legitimate for them to use the NV data as a sanity check.

In any case, its still useful as a scaling of the NV index numbers into something tangible in the way of an actual unit estimate that they are doing so we do not have too. Its their data estimates then not ours.
if +-1% is your idea of variation, then I don't know what to say. I'd say the confidence interval that the variation is not random is about 100%.

They use it more than a sanity check. It's all they use. The variation is too small for them to be using there own source first and then cross-checking with NVS. Anyone with a basic knowledge of statistics could see this easily.

I think I'll make up my own "numbers" list next week. It'll probably just as accurate as their site.
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Old 03-30-2012, 11:47 AM   #2218  
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if +-1% is your idea of variation, then I don't know what to say. I'd say the confidence interval that the variation is not random is about 100%.

They use it more than a sanity check. It's all they use. The variation is too small for them to be using there own source first and then cross-checking with NVS. Anyone with a basic knowledge of statistics could see this easily.
Well done over the last several posts bruce.

It is obvious to even casual observers and small children that The-Numbers is making their data from cheat sheets and guesses.

Why some here, and one in particular, choose to pretend that data is real is, quite frankly, disturbing.

Very strange.

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I think I'll make up my own "numbers" list next week. It'll probably just as accurate as their site.
Probably more accurate. The-Numbers is biased AND guessing.
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Old 03-30-2012, 02:33 PM   #2219  
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if +-1% is your idea of variation, then I don't know what to say. I'd say the confidence interval that the variation is not random is about 100%.

They use it more than a sanity check. It's all they use. The variation is too small for them to be using there own source first and then cross-checking with NVS. Anyone with a basic knowledge of statistics could see this easily.

I think I'll make up my own "numbers" list next week. It'll probably just as accurate as their site.
Right. So your allegation is that they just copy the Nielsen Videoscan figures, make a guess on the leading title and then just do some false made up minor variations so they will not get sued by Nielsen Videoscan and that they have been doing that since May 2011 for the Top 10 Blu-ray titles on their report and the Top 30 DVD titles since 2006.

Also they have just copied Nielsen Videoscan for all of the DVD and Blu-ray releases since 2006 in their Opusdata database for all of the titles as well since that's what they create the weekly reports from.

OK if you say so.

I think the more reasonable explanation is that they do get some estimates for the leading titles and then they do statistical modeling to create the estimates for the remaining titles in release for the week from a number of inputs they plug into a model.

Blu-ray is just tougher to model at the moment than DVD as its smaller in scale, concentrated in new releases and the Walmart share for new releases is tough to estimate on some weeks.

Here are their disclaimers.

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Precise information on DVD sales is not generally available. Our DVD sales figures are estimates based on studio figures, publicly available data, and private research on retail sales carried out by Nash Information Services, LLC. The figures include estimated sales at Walmart and other retailers that do not publicly release sales information.

Our sales charts currently start on February 12, 2006. DVDs released before that date do not have cumulative totals.
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Precise information on Blu-ray sales is not generally available. Our Blu-ray sales figures are estimates based on studio figures, publicly available data, and private research on retail sales carried out by Nash Information Services. The figures include estimated sales at Wal-Mart and other retailers that do not publicly release sales information. Cumulative sales figures are provided for titles that were released after January 1, 2010.

Historical Blu-ray sales data is available from our OpusData data service. Please email us at [email protected] if you are interested in a trial of the Video Market service, which includes weekly tracking of DVD sales, Blu-ray sales and video rentals.
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Research Services

In addition to providing information for free, Nash Information Services, LLC provides research services to hundreds of industry professionals, investors and entertainment companies each year. Since 1997, we have been constantly developing our Movie Industry Model, a sophisticated tool for analyzing the past and future performance of movies, including ancillary revenue through DVD and Blu-ray sales and rentals, TV sales, and foreign revenues.

Using our model, we can provide revenue estimates for past movies, predictions of opening weekends and total grosses for current and future releases, and many other financial projections that can be critical in creating a business plan for an independent movie, or planning an investment. Our research services are used by independent producers, investment banks and analysts, technology companies, retailers, web sites and the major studios.

One of our most popular services is our Movie Sales Projection. The projection is based on an extract from our database for movies that are similar to a given project based either on a list provided by our client, or by doing a search based on up to six criteria, including budget, genre and production method.

Based on this information, we provide a projection for the profit or loss that will be made by the movie, based on our distribution model for studio distribution, or by working with our client to identify an alternative distribution strategy appropriate for the particular project.

The Movie Sales Projection breaks down revenue into US and international theatrical and home market income, TV rights sales and other ancillary revenue.

For more information on The Numbers' research services please send an email to [email protected].

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Our OpusData data service connects you directly to movie data through an easy-to-use search and query interface, the OpusData Explorer, and an Application Programming Interface (API). Developed to cater to a wide range of users with varying data needs and database expertise, the OpusData subscription service provides direct access to search, query, download and manipulate movie data. Whether you want to integrate our data into your web site, develop an App, analyze industry trends or build investment models, OpusData provides you with the tools and data to do it.

Go to OpusData.com to sign up for a free trial.

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History
The Numbers was officially launched on October 17th, 1997 as a free resource for industry professionals, the investment community, and movie fans to track business information on movies. Since its humble early beginnings, with just 300 tracked movies, the site has grown to become the largest freely available database of movie industry information on the web. Nearly 13,000 movies and about 750,000 separate pieces of information are now stored in the database, and Nash Information Services continues its commitment to making this data available to the widest possible audience.

The site has been run since its inception by Bruce Nash, with the help of a dedicated team of researchers and writers, bringing daily updates on the movie industry from its base in Los Angeles, CA.
http://www.the-numbers.com/about.php
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Old 03-30-2012, 02:46 PM   #2220  
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As I said, I think the The-Numbers Blu-ray revenue estimates are consistently high and can have significant additional error in weeks with high volume sales at Walmart. But their cumulative totals are better as that what their database is designed to do for their consulting clients. I think their house bias is consistent as well.

But I also think their data is consistent in methodology and valid internally for title to title variations with the database and also for trending as well.

That's exactly what I was using it for here in the recent posts.

I also think its useful for order of magnitude purposes for The-Numbers to do the relative scaling of the Nielsen Videoscan first alert index numbers instead of you or I doing that on a weekly basis.

For the magnitude comparisons with other sources like the HMM or DEG estimates, I just think that your expectations of consistency in magnitude between two separate data sources is just plain unreasonable. In any industry type market size estimates the magnitudes just never match no matter what the professionalism or accuracy of the source of model. They generally are just too many moving parts.

In the case of home video sales, its especially difficult as much of the sales are made at Walmart who does not share data with most aggegators and sales are split among many studios and content providers who really do not want all of their sales data known for many reasons including wanting to hide those revenues from claims and from their competition.

All of these sources, including The-Numbers, DEG , Rentrak NPD and HMM are trying to estimate a moving elusive target with different time periods and ranges and its a bit more difficult to be consistent than you think.

I just think you expectations of consistency in magnitude are unrealistic and sources like The-Numbers weekly charts are just another data source to add to our understanding of the market as well as others.

Besides the simple fact that its the only by title weekly and long term source of data that is available as well and it matches over time NDA sources as well to a pretty good degree.
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