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Old 03-29-2012, 10:20 PM   #2191  
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Here is the entire data set in two parts.

Part 1

Spoiler:













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Old 03-29-2012, 10:23 PM   #2192  
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Old 03-29-2012, 10:25 PM   #2193  
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Here is the merchandising report for WE 3/25/11.

I'm not seeing anything there to give any clue to why The Muppets would have so high a 53% Blu-ray unit marketshare as reported by Nielsen Videoscan.

I assume it had a normal Disney coupon offer (article mentions $5) but that would be nothing new. Those are still $23 low end Blu-ray priced skus on sale and a lot of the Blu-ray or combo skus were priced much higher than that at major retailers.

The Blu-ray marketshare for The Muppets was seen as unexpectedly high. What caused that this week?

What am I missing?





Quote:
Lunch With 'The Muppets' (WE 03/25/12)

20 Mar, 2012
By: John Latchem


Anyone who has wanted to have lunch with the Muppets should head down to Best Buy, which is offering an exclusive lunch box with copies of the Blu-ray combo pack of The Muppets.

The included combo pack is the Wocka Wocka version with the film’s soundtrack for digital download, making the $27.99 in-store price cheaper than the $34.99 online price for the standalone version of the same combo pack, which isn’t offered in many stores. Best Buy further offers a $5 coupon from Disney at MuppetsCoupon.com/BestBuy, applicable toward the Wocka Wocka Blu-ray (and the lunch box).

Best Buy also has a free 7-inch bunny minion plush with purchase of Universal’s Hop Blu-ray, released on March 23.

Target offered a $5 savings with joint purchase of exclusive editions of both Hop and Despicable Me. Target’s Hop Blu-ray comes with wearable bunny ears.

For The Muppets, Target offered a six-episode “Muppet Show” sampler DVD with the Blu-ray of the new movie.

At Walmart, customers could get a set of four Muppets finger puppets with purchase of the Muppets Blu-ray/DVD combo pack (the verison without the digital soundtrack).

Spoiler:
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/age.../lunch-muppets

Last edited by Kosty; 03-30-2012 at 02:52 AM..
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Old 03-30-2012, 04:05 AM   #2194  
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Complete Historical Trend Slide Set as online PDF Week Ending 03/17/12

Complete Nielsen Videoscan Weekly Sales Report Slide Set as online PDF Week 03/25/12


Example screenshots of the interface are below. Use the above links to view.

You can also save individual slides or cut and paste the links to insert in your own posts.







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Old 03-30-2012, 08:52 AM   #2195  
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80% T20 revenue share seems too high to me. BD's revenue average this year is $36 million, so 20% of that is only $7.3 million. $7.3 million as a base just seems too low. A 30% base would be $10.8 million and that sounds more reasonable to me.

Look where DVD would be if Blu-ray T20 were at 80%. As the average BD T20 unit marketshare is 36% (probably higher than that because it's higher on the high volume weeks), a reasonable revenue share would be 36% * 1.25 = 45%. Now remember this 45% is on the conservative side, as it's probably a little higher and maybe as high as 50%.

So if DVD's average T20 revenue share is around 55%, then its average T20 revenue is (55%/45%) * (80% * $36 million) = $35 million.
And as DVD's average total revenue is $118 million, then the T20 share percentage of that is $35/$118 = 29.6%, or around 30%.

That's why I think Blu-ray's T20 share is closer to 70% then to 80%. If DVD is only 30%, then it would seem too extreme for Blu-ray to be at 80%. Just common sense to me.

Last edited by bruceames; 03-30-2012 at 08:59 AM..
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Old 03-30-2012, 09:04 AM   #2196  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Here is the merchandising report for WE 3/25/11.

I'm not seeing anything there to give any clue to why The Muppets would have so high a 53% Blu-ray unit marketshare as reported by Nielsen Videoscan.

I assume it had a normal Disney coupon offer (article mentions $5) but that would be nothing new. Those are still $23 low end Blu-ray priced skus on sale and a lot of the Blu-ray or combo skus were priced much higher than that at major retailers.

The Blu-ray marketshare for The Muppets was seen as unexpectedly high. What caused that this week?

What am I missing?
It does seem pretty high, if it's an error I'm sure TN will just copy it anyway because that's the only cheat sheet they have.

If it's legit, then it should be a pretty good week for BLu-ray.
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Old 03-30-2012, 09:18 AM   #2197  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
The variation is more random than that as usually its plus and minus a little bit for all the matching titles. But it should be much closer this year for the unit sale percentages as by all accounts the Walmart share of Blu-ray overall sales is much closer to their traditional 40% DVD share ever since the start of 4Q 2011.

Its not quite carbon copies either and the variation between titles seems more random than you seem to observe.
The variation is not at all random and is basically a carbon copy of the Nielsen ratios. Within 1% across 10 titles is NOT random at all.

Quote:
Its only when you start get into the weeds and start comparing magnitudes that things start getting problematic but that's just how it is with any broad market comparisons from different data aggregators and estimations from different sources. Its just that magnitudes are always an issue no matter what. Just the way it is.
It's not just the magnitudes but the variation as well. Just the way it is.


Quote:
Even if the magnitudes are off or systemically high the relationships for all the data points in the set are still the same and order of magnitude correct. The magnitude just scales the data it does not change the internal relationships between titles as much.
They are not even close to being ballpark correct. Almost doubling HMM's revenue one week and then 50% higher the next week means something's seriously amiss.

Quote:
There probably is still some flaws in that some DVD friendly titles probably have greater errors in their estimates and would be somewhat exaggerated in revenues compared to more Blu-ray friendly genres but comparing titles closer in genre would probably be more accurate as well as releases that are closer in release date as well.
It may be more accurate but again maybe not. It's easy to see that the magnitude is way off, because it can be compared with other data sets. So if they are way off with their magnitude, they are probably just way off with everything, period.

It's like throwing darts. You throw 100 darts, missing all over the place, and then the average position of all those darts is at the northeast edge of the dart board. The-Numbers is BS, and they get away with it because no one can prove them wrong. Well with their Blu-ray data, it's all coming to light because their total revenue often greatly exceeds that given by HMM. With DVD, no one noticed because the T20 revenue is such as small percentage of the total and the weekly T20 total go never go close to going over the overall total for the format.

But please do continue, it's fun watching you go to such lengths defending it in spite of all the damning evidence against it.
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Old 03-30-2012, 09:58 AM   #2198  
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Some bullish comments on physical media from a Fox executive.


Quote:
“Obviously it’s popular to talk about the ‘decline of physical media’ but even with the last four years of recession which have put a dent in the purchase model where maybe units did decline on DVD faster than perhaps Blu-ray could have compensated for,”

“[However] particularly in the US starting mid year 2011 the market began to stabilise and what you’re now beginning to see in the start of 2012 is growth in the physical market”
Quote:
Blu-ray 'not remotely' dead says 20th Century Fox top Exec

Updated 17:34 28 Mar 2012 by Thomas Tamblyn

In Danny Kaye's eyes the 'perfect storm' of 2011 is over for Blu-ray and physical media, with the market levelling out he believes the future is bright for the format

According to Twentieth Century Fox Executive Vice President of Global Research & Technology Danny Kaye, Blu-ray and other physical media has a long way to go before it’s written off by the likes of Netflix and LOVEFiLM Instant.


Despite the growth of these services Kaye is confident that physical media is still one of the best routes to go for arguing that the fluid nature of the internet means governance over content is much lower.

“We can govern the quality of Blu-ray, we can govern the quality of DVD for example, but even Netflix or say LOVEFiLM for example, can’t govern the quality of their service delivery because it then depends on someone else [Internet Service Provider]”

Talking about the dip in physical media Kaye points out that there were a culmination of factors to blame, most prominent of which included the boom of streaming services.

“It was the perfect storm you know right? When the recession started perhaps it hit harder and earlier in the US and then started spreading elsewhere.”

“It was the same time that you had a number of alternative channels of distribution begin to evolve and the consumer said, ‘Wow that’s pretty convenient, they’re cheaper, in some cases they’re really convenient and that’s the way I’m going to go.’”

Despite these more 'convenient' alternatives Kaye believes strongly that any such dip in physical media was a natural reaction and has since ended, he further backs this up with the news that for Fox physical media is still growing.

“Obviously it’s popular to talk about the ‘decline of physical media’ but even with the last four years of recession which have put a dent in the purchase model where maybe units did decline on DVD faster than perhaps Blu-ray could have compensated for,”

“[However] particularly in the US starting mid year 2011 the market began to stabilise and what you’re now beginning to see in the start of 2012 is growth in the physical market”

http://www.t3.com/news/blu-ray-and-d...-vp-danny-kaye
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Old 03-30-2012, 10:13 AM   #2199  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
80% T20 revenue share seems too high to me. BD's revenue average this year is $36 million, so 20% of that is only $7.3 million. $7.3 million as a base just seems too low. A 30% base would be $10.8 million and that sounds more reasonable to me.

Look where DVD would be if Blu-ray T20 were at 80%. As the average BD T20 unit marketshare is 36% (probably higher than that because it's higher on the high volume weeks), a reasonable revenue share would be 36% * 1.25 = 45%. Now remember this 45% is on the conservative side, as it's probably a little higher and maybe as high as 50%.

So if DVD's average T20 revenue share is around 55%, then its average T20 revenue is (55%/45%) * (80% * $36 million) = $35 million.
And as DVD's average total revenue is $118 million, then the T20 share percentage of that is $35/$118 = 29.6%, or around 30%.

That's why I think Blu-ray's T20 share is closer to 70% then to 80%. If DVD is only 30%, then it would seem too extreme for Blu-ray to be at 80%. Just common sense to me.
I'll have to think about your comments here a bit more to give a better response but I would just note that DVD is not Blu-ray and the percentage of DVD sales that are routine older release catalog sales is much greater than with Blu-ray.

I'll ping some industry sources today and see if I can get back any more recent figures or estimates on the proportion of sales and revenues that are new and recent releases vs older catalog titles from them to act as a sanity check.

But just one thing to note. Its not necessarily a real strength of Blu-ray to have the revenues still so concentrated in the new releases. It can be argued that that is still a delicate situation that catalog sales are still pretty low in relation to new release sales for the Blu-ray format. In fact, I personally would wish that catalog sales would be contributing more.

Its a good thing that Blu-ray is doing so well with new release sales and marketshares as that's where the higher prices and margins and volumes are but growing Blu-ray catalog sales to better approach DVD levels is important too and is lagging.

Blu-ray catalog sales are increasing in releases, overall volumes and units moved per released title but it seems that Blu-ray new release sales are growing even faster. More catalog sales and new to Blu-ray sales would certainly be better and a higher portion of Blu-ray sales shifted to older releases would probably be more healthy for the format in the long run, but I really do not see much evidence of a shift in the revenue portion from new release to older non Top 20 titles yet. I wish I could, but at the moment I see no evidence of that.

I'm actually arguing here that The-Numbers and other sources are showing that new release titles still overwhelming dominate the Blu-ray revenue stream and that's not necessarily a strength of Blu-ray as a format.

But that should change in the future as Blu-ray catalog sales increase but at the moment I think Blu-ray new release sales are growing even faster than catalog so that split has been maintained even as Blu-ray older release sales have grown in the past few years.
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Old 03-30-2012, 10:16 AM   #2200  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Some bullish comments on physical media from a Fox executive.


http://www.t3.com/news/blu-ray-and-d...-vp-danny-kaye

Just wait until the DEG report comes out. If it shows sell through growth, then the spin is going to be crazy.

It's amazing that OD sell-through has a chance to be up this quarter, amazing until you see that box office is up close to 20% from last year that is. Then it seems very normal. But you can be sure that box office won't be mentioned in the DEG report. That only happens when it's down and is used an an excuse.

But the box office bubble won't last forever.
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Old 03-30-2012, 10:20 AM   #2201  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
It does seem pretty high, if it's an error I'm sure TN will just copy it anyway because that's the only cheat sheet they have.

If it's legit, then it should be a pretty good week for BLu-ray.
Its Nielsen Videoscan first alert data so its kinda hard to argue with in the actual percentages being reported so its valid data for the NV reported Blu-ray unit share and the index number comparisons with the other releases.

Of course its not including Walmart in that calculation so the actual percentages taking that into account will be somewhat less.

So it should be another good week for Blu-ray.

Here was some speculation on why The Muppets was higher than expected in general terms.

I obviously disagree with your snide comment on The-Numbers but we will see. If they have a little variation with a slightly smaller Blu-ray share that would not be unexpected at all.


Quote:
Originally Posted by electricloseyland from HDD
I think The Muppets has an audience beyond the family crowd that usually buys those kind of family films -- people in their 30s (and maybe early 40s) without kids, who grew up with the Muppets and have a lot of nostalgia. They marketed this film perfectly, with viral videos and fake trailers parodying decidedly non-Muppety films like Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. So there was a lot of awareness of it, and when word came out that it was actually good, the 30-somethings turned out strong for it.

Plus, the 30-somethings are kind of in the Blu Ray sweet spot -- young and just savvy enough to have fancy home theaters, but sometimes not tech-savvy enough to know how to torrent it.

So I think the addition of the Gen X crowd to the expected family audience for The Muppets results in that above-average BD disc share. That's just my suspicion, I haven't seen any numbers that prove it.
Thanks. Makes sense to me.

I have not been watching a lot of cable/sat the last month so perhaps I missed all the marketing.

I know that a bunch of people I have talked to in the past week have been surprised on how well the title has been doing on home video in general and HMM noted its surprisingly high Blu-ray performance.
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Old 03-30-2012, 10:27 AM   #2202  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Just wait until the DEG report comes out. If it shows sell through growth, then the spin is going to be crazy.

It's amazing that OD sell-through has a chance to be up this quarter, amazing until you see that box office is up close to 20% from last year that is. Then it seems very normal. But you can be sure that box office won't be mentioned in the DEG report. That only happens when it's down and is used an an excuse.

But the box office bubble won't last forever.
I think the mention of stronger box office will certainly be made in the report but we shall see soon enough. Strength of releases including Star Wars was mentioned in the 3Q 2011 report so your cynicism there is a bit unfounded.

The box office performance and strength of releases matters either way and its going to help at least for a while yet. Overall theatrical box office is still way up this year and much of the 2012 better performing titles are still in the pipeline for home video.

A lot depends on how the summer releases do as always but so far so good. The economy growing finally should also assist as well.
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Old 03-30-2012, 10:37 AM   #2203  
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Slightly different article.

Quote:
Blu-ray not dead, says Twentieth Century Fox executive


Published Thursday, Mar 29 2012, 12:48pm EDT | By Mark Langshaw | 30 comments


Twentieth Century Fox's executive vice president of global research & technology has said that Blu-ray and physical media will not be phased out by digital any time soon.

Danny Kaye told T3 that services such as Netflix and LOVEFiLM cannot guarantee the same level of viewing quality as Blu-ray.

"We can govern the quality of Blu-ray, we can govern the quality of DVD for example, but even Netflix or say LOVEFiLM for example, can't govern the quality of their service delivery because it then depends on someone else [Internet Service Provider]," he said.

However, Kaye did attribute the downturn of physical media sales to the growing popularity of streaming services, among other factors.

"It was the perfect storm you know, right? When the recession started perhaps it hit harder and earlier in the US and then started spreading elsewhere," he added.

"It was the same time that you had a number of alternative channels of distribution begin to evolve and the consumer said, 'Wow that's pretty convenient, they're cheaper, in some cases they're really convenient and that's the way I'm going to go'."

The executive pointed out that Fox's physical sales began to pick up around mid-2011, and predicted that there will be "growth" in the sector during 2012.
http://www.digitalspy.com/tech/news/...executive.html
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Old 03-30-2012, 10:44 AM   #2204  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BruceAmes
It's amazing that OD sell-through has a chance to be up this quarter, amazing until you see that box office is up close to 20% from last year that is. Then it seems very normal. But you can be sure that box office won't be mentioned in the DEG report. That only happens when it's down and is used an an excuse.
Sorry to be Mr. Thicky, but can you guys answer me a question?

When you're talking about box office revenue in the context of OD revenue being up or down, as in the paragraph above, you are talking about the BO revenue for the OD titles coming to market, so for the Muppet's you're talking about last year's BO? It's just that makes it sound like it's this year's BO being compared?

Cheers,

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Old 03-30-2012, 10:46 AM   #2205  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Of course its not including Walmart in that calculation so the actual percentages taking that into account will be somewhat less.
And how so? According to The-Numbers, which DOES account for Walmart, the share is virtually the same, as evidenced by them mirroring the NVC ratios to within 1% across all titles.
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