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Old 03-26-2012, 06:40 PM   #2146  
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Updated thru week ending 3/17/12
Table of Blu-ray sales (HMM and DEG)
numbers are in (revenue) millions.
Weekly figures are from HMM (Home Media Magazine

Code:
2012 HMM    1707.03     0.1%    1303.26    -5.8%     403.76   25.2%    23.7%    1872.2  1597.8										
Week Date      OD     OD YoY      DVD    DVD YoY       BD    BD YoY  BD Share  TBO2012 TBO2011										

11  3/17     146.48     4.6%     112.13    -1.4%      34.34   30.2%    23.4%     276.1   154.2
10  3/10     165.27     9.5%     123.11     2.7%      42.16   35.7%    25.5%     216.0   177.1
9   3/3      150.39   -14.0%     115.29   -13.4%      35.10  -15.7%    23.3%      67.0   112.3
8   2/25     158.98    -2.2%     122.04    -7.3%      36.94   19.4%    23.2%     272.1   258.0
7   2/18     207.15    18.9%     160.38    10.4%      46.77   61.7%    22.6%      16.4    86.2
6   2/11     205.54    19.4%     151.09     3.1%      54.45  104.2%    26.5%     316.5   224.0
5   2/4      144.90    -8.6%     110.25   -16.0%      34.65   27.1%    23.9%     118.5    23.0
4   1/28     131.95   -13.6%      98.40   -20.2%      33.55   14.2%    25.4%     226.3   201.2
3   1/21     129.39    -2.4%     103.53    -4.9%      25.86    8.9%    20.0%     112.7    60.7
2   1/14     128.65    -5.1%     100.16    -7.7%      28.49    5.6%    22.1%     143.4   116.2
1   1/7      138.33    -8.0%     106.88   -11.6%      31.45    7.0%    22.7%     157.7   134.3

2011 DEG    8951.80   -13.2%    6851.80   -19.5%    2150.00   19.4%    24.0%    
2011 HMM    8604.20   -13.9%    6608.28   -20.3%    1995.92   17.7%    23.2%    9936.0 10820.9																			

Q4 DEG      3338.95   -11.0%    2464.81   -16.5%     924.14   15.5%    27.7%
Q4 HMM      3125.11   -12.4%    2280.75   -19.5%     844.36   15.1%    27.0%    3698.4  3932.2

52  12/31    174.13   -25.6%     130.29   -28.7%      43.84  -14.7%    25.2%      64.3    95.9
51  12/24    482.11   -13.1%     368.59   -16.9%     113.52    2.2%    23.5%     205.6   303.6
50  12/17    369.89   -23.4%     280.58   -26.8%      89.31  -10.1%    24.1%     360.7   635.3
49  12/10    322.48   -14.5%     243.85   -18.6%      78.63    1.5%    24.4%     624.8   535.6
48  12/3     229.49   -23.3%     173.97   -27.5%      55.52   -6.2%    24.2%     282.0   496.0
47  11/26    388.67   -12.4%     300.39   -16.5%      88.28    5.0%    22.7%     194.5   185.3
46  11/19    166.84   -14.3%     127.57   -18.0%      39.27    0.5%    23.5%      41.6   359.0
45  11/12    183.17     2.5%     128.95   -12.0%      54.22   68.3%    29.6%     422.9   251.3
44  11/5     167.53   -16.8%     117.59   -22.8%      49.94    2.0%    29.8%     335.6   414.9
43  10/29    147.15    11.2%      96.66   -11.3%      50.49  115.6%    33.6%     204.5   108.7
42  10/22    156.94     9.5%      95.94   -17.1%      61.00  120.8%    38.9%     370.0    56.0
41  10/15    152.92    -2.4%     106.50   -14.1%      46.42   42.2%    30.4%     343.3   233.0
40  10/8     183.79     9.3%     109.87    -9.4%      73.92   57.7%    40.2%     248.6   257.6

Q3 DEG      1742.79    -4.0%    1320.93   -14.7%     421.86   58.0%    24.2%
Q3 HMM      1667.09    -4.9%    1298.39   -13.9%     368.70   49.9%    22.1%    1806.3  1609.5										

39  10/1     152.58   -14.3%     109.97   -20.4%      42.61    7.1%    27.9%     352.1   382.7
38  9/24     153.60     5.0%     108.69   -12.5%      44.91  103.6%    29.2%     169.3   112.5
37  9/17     164.69    14.0%     107.37   -14.2%      57.32  197.2%    34.8%     190.8   165.2
36  9/10     128.84     0.0%     102.29   -10.5%      26.55   82.9%    20.6%     189.3    60.3
35  9/3      119.04    -9.5%     100.87   -13.7%      18.17   23.5%    15.3%      65.6    95.1
34  8/27     109.34   -13.1%      91.74   -16.6%      17.60   11.5%    16.1%      12.6    45.3
33  8/20     124.53    -4.4%     101.11   -12.8%      23.42   63.3%    18.8%     100.8    81.2
32  8/13     122.13    -1.8%      98.44    -9.5%      23.69   51.8%    19.4%     118.0   143.9
31  8/6      139.66     1.4%     111.78    -3.6%      27.88   27.9%    20.0%     189.8   133.5
30  7/30     108.78   -18.3%      89.06   -20.2%      19.72   -8.7%    18.1%      56.8   177.2
29  7/23     120.50    -1.9%      97.25    -9.4%      23.25   49.9%    19.3%      88.3    72.7
28  7/16     118.09    -4.8%      94.88   -13.5%      23.21   61.7%    19.7%     267.8    94.7
27  7/9      105.31   -16.7%      84.94   -22.7%      20.37   22.9%    19.3%       5.1    45.2										
		
Q2 DEG      1831      -15.0%    1434      -18.8%     397       9.4%    21.7%
Q2 HMM      1791.55   -12.2%    1402.94   -16.7%     388.61    9.1%    21.7%    2314.8  2422.0

26  7/2      127.11   -12.3%      96.32   -21.6%      30.79   39.4%    24.2%     102.3   181.4
25  6/25     123.25    -7.7%      98.18   -12.8%      25.07   20.1%    20.3%     205.4    85.8
24  6/18     149.89   -11.2%     114.68   -17.7%      35.21   19.5%    23.5%     208.2   142.8
23  6/11     130.81   -13.6%     103.23   -18.6%      27.58   12.3%    21.1%     305.0   152.6
22  6/4      118.16   -34.1%      96.17   -32.8%      21.99  -39.1%    18.6%      15.8   386.8
21  5/28     113.83   -16.6%      91.37   -22.9%      22.46   24.9%    19.7%     154.4    87.9
20  5/21     111.98   -15.2%      91.84   -18.9%      20.14    7.2%    18.0%      99.8   185.7
19  5/14     111.02   -23.6%      90.00   -26.8%      21.02   -6.2%    18.9%     155.6   113.6
18  5/7      122.05   -25.2%      99.74   -29.5%      22.31   -7.7%    18.3%     141.5   106.1
17  4/30     106.99   -40.6%      86.94   -39.6%      20.05  -44.5%    18.7%       0.0   120.5
16  4/23     217.30    -8.3%     171.47    -0.3%      45.83  -29.4%    21.1%     187.5   841.3
15  4/16     184.50    48.7%     134.40    24.8%      50.10  205.3%    27.2%     314.8     8.1
14  4/9      174.66    21.6%     128.60     5.9%      46.06  107.5%    26.5%     424.5     9.4
										
Q1 DEG      2068      -20.0%    1661      -25.0%     407      10.0%    19.7%		
Q1 HMM      2020.45   -23.2%    1626.20   -28.4%     394.25    9.4%    19.5%    2116.5  2857.2

13  4/2      192.11   -36.0%     144.16   -44.6%      47.95   20.1%    25.0%     300.9   461.1
12  3/26     135.54   -49.8%     110.21   -50.9%      25.33  -44.1%    18.7%     218.0   335.6
11  3/19     138.72   -46.5%     112.58   -49.6%      26.14  -27.1%    18.8%     154.2   534.3
10  3/12     146.96   -24.4%     116.11   -30.8%      30.85   16.5%    21.0%     177.0   247.2
9   3/5      174.59    -7.2%     132.93   -15.4%      41.66   34.1%    23.9%     112.3   258.8
8   2/26     160.96     4.5%     130.35    -2.5%      30.61   50.7%    19.0%     258.0    74.9
7   2/19     172.68    -8.1%     143.99   -12.7%      28.69   25.0%    16.6%      86.2    80.1
6   2/12     172.00   -19.4%     145.34   -23.1%      26.66    8.9%    15.5%     224.0   211.0
5   2/5      158.26   -16.7%     131.08   -20.8%      27.18   11.1%    17.2%      23.0   114.6
4   1/29     151.21   -14.6%     122.05   -20.9%      29.16   27.6%    19.3%     201.2   151.6
3   1/22     131.62   -16.3%     107.98   -21.0%      23.64   14.8%    18.0%      60.7    61.0
2   1/15     135.49   -17.3%     108.51   -23.9%      26.98   27.0%    19.9%     143.3   137.8
1   1/8      150.31   -14.1%     120.91   -19.5%      29.40   18.6%    19.6%     157.7   189.2

OD = optical disc (DVD + Blu-ray)
YoY = year over year percentage change
TBO = total box office
BD = Blu-ray

Last edited by bruceames; 03-26-2012 at 08:16 PM..
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Old 03-26-2012, 07:07 PM   #2147  
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Old 03-26-2012, 08:10 PM   #2148  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Updated thru week ending 3/17/12
Table of Blu-ray sales (HMM and DEG)
numbers are in (revenue) millions.
Weekly figures are from HMM (Home Media Magazine

Code:
2012 HMM    1707.03     0.1%    1303.26    -5.8%     403.76   25.2%    23.7%    1872.2  1597.8										
Week Date      OD     OD YoY      DVD    DVD YoY       BD    BD YoY  BD Share  TBO2012 TBO2011										

11  3/17     146.48     4.6%     112.13    -1.4%      34.34   30.2%    23.4%     276.1   154.2
10  3/10     165.27     9.5%     123.11     2.7%      42.16   35.7%    25.5%     216.0   177.1
9   3/3      150.39   -14.0%     115.29   -13.4%      35.10  -15.7%    23.3%      67.0   112.3
8   2/25     158.98    -2.2%     122.04    -7.3%      36.94   19.4%    23.2%     272.1   258.0
7   2/18     207.15    18.9%     160.38    10.4%      46.77   61.7%    22.6%      16.4    86.2
6   2/11     205.54    19.4%     151.09     3.1%      54.45  104.2%    26.5%     316.5   224.0
5   2/4      144.90    -8.6%     110.25   -16.0%      34.65   27.1%    23.9%     118.5    23.0
4   1/28     131.95   -13.6%      98.40   -20.2%      33.55   14.2%    25.4%     226.3   201.2
3   1/21     129.39    -2.4%     103.53    -4.9%      25.86    8.9%    20.0%     112.7    60.7
2   1/14     128.65    -5.1%     100.16    -7.7%      28.49    5.6%    22.1%     143.4   116.2
1   1/7      138.33    -8.0%     106.88   -11.6%      31.45    7.0%    22.7%     157.7   134.3

2011 DEG    8951.80   -13.2%    6851.80   -19.5%    2150.00   19.4%    24.0%    
2011 HMM    8604.20   -13.9%    6608.28   -20.3%    1995.92   17.7%    23.2%    9936.0 10820.9																			

Q4 DEG      3338.95   -11.0%    2464.81   -16.5%     924.14   15.5%    27.7%
Q4 HMM      3125.11   -12.4%    2280.75   -19.5%     844.36   15.1%    27.0%    3698.4  3932.2

52  12/31    174.13   -25.6%     130.29   -28.7%      43.84  -14.7%    25.2%      64.3    95.9
51  12/24    482.11   -13.1%     368.59   -16.9%     113.52    2.2%    23.5%     205.6   303.6
50  12/17    369.89   -23.4%     280.58   -26.8%      89.31  -10.1%    24.1%     360.7   635.3
49  12/10    322.48   -14.5%     243.85   -18.6%      78.63    1.5%    24.4%     624.8   535.6
48  12/3     229.49   -23.3%     173.97   -27.5%      55.52   -6.2%    24.2%     282.0   496.0
47  11/26    388.67   -12.4%     300.39   -16.5%      88.28    5.0%    22.7%     194.5   185.3
46  11/19    166.84   -14.3%     127.57   -18.0%      39.27    0.5%    23.5%      41.6   359.0
45  11/12    183.17     2.5%     128.95   -12.0%      54.22   68.3%    29.6%     422.9   251.3
44  11/5     167.53   -16.8%     117.59   -22.8%      49.94    2.0%    29.8%     335.6   414.9
43  10/29    147.15    11.2%      96.66   -11.3%      50.49  115.6%    33.6%     204.5   108.7
42  10/22    156.94     9.5%      95.94   -17.1%      61.00  120.8%    38.9%     370.0    56.0
41  10/15    152.92    -2.4%     106.50   -14.1%      46.42   42.2%    30.4%     343.3   233.0
40  10/8     183.79     9.3%     109.87    -9.4%      73.92   57.7%    40.2%     248.6   257.6

Q3 DEG      1742.79    -4.0%    1320.93   -14.7%     421.86   58.0%    24.2%
Q3 HMM      1667.09    -4.9%    1298.39   -13.9%     368.70   49.9%    22.1%    1806.3  1609.5										

39  10/1     152.58   -14.3%     109.97   -20.4%      42.61    7.1%    27.9%     352.1   382.7
38  9/24     153.60     5.0%     108.69   -12.5%      44.91  103.6%    29.2%     169.3   112.5
37  9/17     164.69    14.0%     107.37   -14.2%      57.32  197.2%    34.8%     190.8   165.2
36  9/10     128.84     0.0%     102.29   -10.5%      26.55   82.9%    20.6%     189.3    60.3
35  9/3      119.04    -9.5%     100.87   -13.7%      18.17   23.5%    15.3%      65.6    95.1
34  8/27     109.34   -13.1%      91.74   -16.6%      17.60   11.5%    16.1%      12.6    45.3
33  8/20     124.53    -4.4%     101.11   -12.8%      23.42   63.3%    18.8%     100.8    81.2
32  8/13     122.13    -1.8%      98.44    -9.5%      23.69   51.8%    19.4%     118.0   143.9
31  8/6      139.66     1.4%     111.78    -3.6%      27.88   27.9%    20.0%     189.8   133.5
30  7/30     108.78   -18.3%      89.06   -20.2%      19.72   -8.7%    18.1%      56.8   177.2
29  7/23     120.50    -1.9%      97.25    -9.4%      23.25   49.9%    19.3%      88.3    72.7
28  7/16     118.09    -4.8%      94.88   -13.5%      23.21   61.7%    19.7%     267.8    94.7
27  7/9      105.31   -16.7%      84.94   -22.7%      20.37   22.9%    19.3%       5.1    45.2										
		
Q2 DEG      1831      -15.0%    1434      -18.8%     397       9.4%    21.7%
Q2 HMM      1791.55   -12.2%    1402.94   -16.7%     388.61    9.1%    21.7%    2314.8  2422.0

26  7/2      127.11   -12.3%      96.32   -21.6%      30.79   39.4%    24.2%     102.3   181.4
25  6/25     123.25    -7.7%      98.18   -12.8%      25.07   20.1%    20.3%     205.4    85.8
24  6/18     149.89   -11.2%     114.68   -17.7%      35.21   19.5%    23.5%     208.2   142.8
23  6/11     130.81   -13.6%     103.23   -18.6%      27.58   12.3%    21.1%     305.0   152.6
22  6/4      118.16   -34.1%      96.17   -32.8%      21.99  -39.1%    18.6%      15.8   386.8
21  5/28     113.83   -16.6%      91.37   -22.9%      22.46   24.9%    19.7%     154.4    87.9
20  5/21     111.98   -15.2%      91.84   -18.9%      20.14    7.2%    18.0%      99.8   185.7
19  5/14     111.02   -23.6%      90.00   -26.8%      21.02   -6.2%    18.9%     155.6   113.6
18  5/7      122.05   -25.2%      99.74   -29.5%      22.31   -7.7%    18.3%     141.5   106.1
17  4/30     106.99   -40.6%      86.94   -39.6%      20.05  -44.5%    18.7%       0.0   120.5
16  4/23     217.30    -8.3%     171.47    -0.3%      45.83  -29.4%    21.1%     187.5   841.3
15  4/16     184.50    48.7%     134.40    24.8%      50.10  205.3%    27.2%     314.8     8.1
14  4/9      174.66    21.6%     128.60     5.9%      46.06  107.5%    26.5%     424.5     9.4
										
Q1 DEG      2068      -20.0%    1661      -25.0%     407      10.0%    19.7%		
Q1 HMM      2020.45   -23.2%    1626.20   -28.4%     394.25    9.4%    19.5%    2116.5  2857.2

13  4/2      192.11   -36.0%     144.16   -44.6%      47.95   20.1%    25.0%     300.9   461.1
12  3/26     135.54   -49.8%     110.21   -50.9%      25.33  -44.1%    18.7%     218.0   335.6
11  3/19     138.72   -46.5%     112.58   -49.6%      26.14  -27.1%    18.8%     154.2   534.3
10  3/12     146.96   -24.4%     116.11   -30.8%      30.85   16.5%    21.0%     177.0   247.2
9   3/5      174.59    -7.2%     132.93   -15.4%      41.66   34.1%    23.9%     112.3   258.8
8   2/26     160.96     4.5%     130.35    -2.5%      30.61   50.7%    19.0%     258.0    74.9
7   2/19     172.68    -8.1%     143.99   -12.7%      28.69   25.0%    16.6%      86.2    80.1
6   2/12     172.00   -19.4%     145.34   -23.1%      26.66    8.9%    15.5%     224.0   211.0
5   2/5      158.26   -16.7%     131.08   -20.8%      27.18   11.1%    17.2%      23.0   114.6
4   1/29     151.21   -14.6%     122.05   -20.9%      29.16   27.6%    19.3%     201.2   151.6
3   1/22     131.62   -16.3%     107.98   -21.0%      23.64   14.8%    18.0%      60.7    61.0
2   1/15     135.49   -17.3%     108.51   -23.9%      26.98   27.0%    19.9%     143.3   137.8
1   1/8      150.31   -14.1%     120.91   -19.5%      29.40   18.6%    19.6%     157.7   189.2

OD = optical disc (DVD + Blu-ray)
YoY = year over year percentage change
TBO = total box office
BD = Blu-ray

Last edited by Kosty; 03-27-2012 at 01:50 AM..
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Old 03-26-2012, 08:23 PM   #2149  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikemorel
And The-Numbers said the top ten blu-ray titles sold $76,540,238 for the week ending March 11th.

Nice try.
Holy cow, didn't notice that. Almost double HMM. Ridiculous.
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Old 03-26-2012, 08:41 PM   #2150  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Holy cow, didn't notice that. Almost double HMM. Ridiculous.
I just looked at TN vs HMM.

Their top 10 all year has been just a bit less than the HMM totals for the entire format with some variations up and down all year including a week way low.

Part of that is the TN Mon-Sun range vs the HMM sun-Sat range and part is that the TN estimates trend higher than HMM estimates in magnitude but the trends are similar over time. For weeks that they have been way high its corrected down the next week.

That's the highest they have been over and its will probably correct itself next week to a degree.
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Old 03-26-2012, 08:47 PM   #2151  
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I just looked at TN vs HMM.

Their top 10 all year has been just a bit less than the HMM totals for the entire format with some variations up and down all year including a week way low.

Part of that is the TN Mon-Sun range vs the HMM sun-Sat range and part is that the TN estimates trend higher than HMM estimates in magnitude but the trends are similar over time. For weeks that they have been way high its corrected down the next week.

That's the highest they have been over and its will probably correct itself next week to a degree.
Sure Kosty, whatever you say. I don't even want to get started on The-Numbers again.
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Old 03-26-2012, 08:54 PM   #2152  
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Odd comparison between Q1 this year and Q3 last year.


Q1 2012 / Q3 2011 --> difference

OD YoY: 0.1% / -4.9% --> 5.0%

DVD YoY: -5.8% / -13.9% --> 8.1%

Blu-ray YoY: 25.2% / 49.9% --> -24.7%

Box office YoY: 17.2% / 12.2% --> 5.0%


Everything is up except for Blu-ray.
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Old 03-26-2012, 09:03 PM   #2153  
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Sure Kosty, whatever you say. I don't even want to get started on The-Numbers again.
The last five weeks besides the last one, the total of the TN top 10 estimates have been about 92% of the HMM total format revenues.

But I don't know the carry over handy from the earlier week handy in my data as I missed those weeks and have not loaded up your data.

There is some Sun-Sat vs Mon-Sun week difference there but it looks like The-Numbers estimates for revenues for Blu-ray are still running about 10% or more high compared to HMM is one makes the assumption that Blu-ray new releases are still about 80% of total Blu-ray format revenues.

I'm still being told the units are much closer but TN still goes more high on major releases as they still are probably overestimating Blu-ray revenues at Walmart.

But the order of magnitude difference does not matter in the POTC 4 vs Transformers DOTM comparison on the last page as both titles estimates have the same house effect magnitude bias and systemic error or methodology flaw. Still apples to apples internal to the database.

The issue is always worse when comparing magnitudes between two different databases, not using internal comparisons or looking at the trends.


Code:
week ending                      HMM  TN top 10

5	02/04/12	02/05/12	34.85	34.85
6	02/11/12	02/12/12	54.45	55.24
7	02/18/12	02/19/12	46.77	20.65
8	02/25/12	02/26/12	36.94	35.54
9	03/03/12	03/04/12	35.10	45.67
 	
			208.11	191.95
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Old 03-26-2012, 09:16 PM   #2154  
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Q1 2012 / Q3 2011

OD YoY: 0.1% / -4.9%

DVD YoY: -5.8% / -13.9%

Blu-ray YoY: 25.2% / 49.9%

Box office YoY: 17.2% / 12.2%




Part of that is because Blu-ray dropped down from its yearly high of 33% after Twilight Saga in the head to head week with Bambi. Its already trending back up.

But the 3Q 2011 comparison also is going against the strong Blu-ray gain from the new to Blu-ray Star Wars and LOTR EE BD titles and the September Thor X-Men First Class etc tentpoles that did much better than the 3Q 2010 the year before. A lot of favorable BD titles in last 3Q 2011 compared to 3Q 2010.

We have had nothing that strong for Blu-ray yet this 1Q 2012 that wasn't as strong or arguably stronger for DVD like Twilight Saga was.


Both of those Blu-ray YoY gains (25.2% or 49.9%) were still higher than any other of those percentages even as the Blu-ray YoY gain is less in 1Q 2012 than 3Q 2012. Either is still higher than anything else in that set of numbers.

Last edited by Kosty; 03-26-2012 at 09:22 PM..
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Old 03-27-2012, 06:42 AM   #2155  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Odd comparison between Q1 this year and Q3 last year.


Q1 2012 / Q3 2011 --> difference

OD YoY: 0.1% / -4.9% --> 5.0%

DVD YoY: -5.8% / -13.9% --> 8.1%

Blu-ray YoY: 25.2% / 49.9% --> -24.7%

Box office YoY: 17.2% / 12.2% --> 5.0%


Everything is up except for Blu-ray.
Hi Bruce, Curious why you chose Q3 of last year? What about the other Q's? How were those numbers?

How are we now vs this time last year?
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Old 03-27-2012, 08:32 AM   #2156  
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Hi Bruce, Curious why you chose Q3 of last year? What about the other Q's? How were those numbers?

How are we now vs this time last year?
Hi Tower, I used Q3 because it's the only quarter where OD did reasonably well last year. Also it's the only quarter where box office was up, so I wanted to see how they compared under similar YoY box office conditions.

Here's the comparison to Q1 last year.

Q1 2012 / Q1 2011 --> difference

OD YoY: 0.1% / -23.2% --> 23.3%

DVD YoY: -5.8% / -28.4% --> 22.6%

Blu-ray YoY: 25.2% / 9.4% --> 15.8%

Box office YoY: 17.2% / -25.9% --> 43.1%%
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Old 03-27-2012, 10:58 AM   #2157  
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I'm still a bit amazed that we are on track for 1Q 2011 to have zero OD attrition from the same period last year. Obviously that's because of Twilight and the other releases and DVD has done better so Blu-ray's growth has had to cover less DVD attrition, but still that's significant.

Even in the best quarter last year the 3Q 2011 period, total DVD+BD =OD attrition was close but still -4.0%. Through 11 weeks we are a tiny +0.1% up and Blu-ray's growth has actually fully covered DVD's smaller attrition.

That's even better than the 3Q last year when the DEG made it a big story line so that will be a big propaganda point with them I'm sure this 1Q 2012 period as well.

Besides the better releases, maybe the improving economy is helping sell through sales or the added UltraViolet stuff is marginally helping things on top of the obvious factor that the TBO is up and the releases are better?

If we can get through the next month and into May with those statistics still high the better box office performance of the theatrical releases this year should help sustain things until the fall when everything depends on how the summer blockbusters do in the holiday season.

Obviously also even if the OD decline stabilizes that's going to be a a level that's far below what DVD did at its peak but being more stable is much better than the rates of decline we have seen since 2007.

Still really too early to tell yet this year, but so far so good.




Last edited by Kosty; 03-27-2012 at 11:05 AM..
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Old 03-28-2012, 12:24 PM   #2158  
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Part of that is the TN Mon-Sun range vs the HMM sun-Sat range and part is that the TN estimates trend higher than HMM estimates in magnitude but the trends are similar over time.
And part of that is The-Numbers just makes it all up.

Quote:
For weeks that they have been way high its corrected down the next week.

That's the highest they have been over and its will probably correct itself next week to a degree.
March 18th

HMM total for 6000 titles: $34.34M.

The-Numbers total for blu-ray top 10: $50.72M.



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Old 03-28-2012, 01:48 PM   #2159  
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Again the issue is the difficulty of comparing magnitudes in the estimates from any two data sources. Its always a bad idea to do that for any source, be it NPD Nielsen Videoscan iSuppli Displaysearch Rentrak, FutureSource or any other industry aggregation source. Especially true for any short turnaround or weekly results and involving Walmart with the difficulty of getting their numbers. Revenues are always more problematic than units as there are less crosschecks of the data from things like produced and shipped information that can be less restrictive than sales revenues.

Its also more valid to compare the general trends between different data sources and for data points between them that looking at magnitude variations between two different data sources.

Its clear that the house bias in the methodology between the The-Numbers revenue estimates for Blu-ray and the HMM vendor numbers for Blu-ray show a clear higher estimate for Blu-ray in the TN data with a somewhat lower bias for the HMM data which all of last year trended below the DEG data as well.

The data last year from HMM also trended low for the most accurate accepted figures we had all last year the DEG data, so its not surprising that another database like The-Numbers would trend higher than the HMM data and closer to the DEG's higher figures as well. For example in the 4Q 2011 timeframe the DEG data was 8% higher than the weekly cumulative rollup of the HMM data which means the HMM data was probably conservatively too low. The-Numbers data being higher than HMM in that period was probably more accurate or at least closer to the industry accepted DEG data which was higher than HMM.

I do understand your bias to find comfort in the lower data you could find and have skepticism over any larger sales numbers for Blu-ray or any data in general that shows Blu-ray in a positive light. If its any comfort, I think the The-Numbers data is somewhat high as well for revenues but mostly consistent but more accurate for units. I have been told that they are more accurate for title cumulative sales in the long run and for units in general as that is what there database is best designed to do in the long term lifecycle cumulative numbers. In particular I think they have difficulty in the revenue estimate of high volume skus at Walmart which is not uncommon. But again just because the magnitudes do not agree with other sources it does not mean the entire data set is invalid or that the trends or internal comparisons of data within the database is worthless or not useful.

4Q 2011 HMM BD Revenue -8.63% under DEG
3Q 2011 HMM BD Revenue -8.10% under DEG
2Q 2011 HMM BD Revenue -2.69% under DEG
1Q 2011 HMM BD Revenue -0.60% under DEG


The vast majority of Blu-ray releases in total do far less than the recent Blu-ray releases and the Top 10 titles captured by the The-Numbers Top 10 Blu-ray list. Its possible that other than the Top 10 titles still only in total do 20% of the revenues anyway so if the HMM data is 10% low and the TN data is 10% high those two databases being still reasonably accurate estimates of 10% of true would still have enough slack in the magnitudes to cover most of the non new release day and date volumes.

In any case a better determination would be made over a longer period of time and in the weeks I just looked at since Feb its a bit closer than the last couple weeks you just pointed out where it does appear at first glance that the TN estimate is much higher than the HMM vendor data.

But the trends are the same even if the magnitudes are not that consistent. Comparisons within the databases done with the same methodology still would be more valid as they would have the same house biases.

I'm sorry if you do not recognize that concept.

In any case, The-Numbers data is the only by title information we have for units and revenues and as its consistent for DVD and Blu-ray now as a long term set of published data comparisons between titles and for longer term trends that are apples to apples in the same dataset.

Last edited by Kosty; 03-28-2012 at 02:16 PM..
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Old 03-28-2012, 04:50 PM   #2160  
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And part of that is The-Numbers just makes it all up.



March 18th

HMM total for 6000 titles: $34.34M.

The-Numbers total for blu-ray top 10: $50.72M.



Comedy gold Mike. The-Numbers are often good for a few laughs, thanks for that.
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