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Old 11-17-2011, 10:52 AM   #196  
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I fixed your reply (in italics). Reread it now and see how ridiculous that sounds. If it's flat, then it's being maintained.
No.

No more than you can say Home Video is dead in a comparison week with BO lead-in sharply down. Box Office lead in matters.
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Old 11-17-2011, 11:39 AM   #197  
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No.

No more than you can say Home Video is dead in a comparison week with BO lead-in sharply down. Box Office lead in matters.
We weren't discussing box office, and it has no relevance because the original remark about BD sustaining OD sales was made in isolation (that is, assuming other variables being equal).

Last edited by bruceames; 11-17-2011 at 11:44 AM..
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Old 11-17-2011, 12:04 PM   #198  
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We weren't discussing box office, and it has no relevance because the original remark about BD sustaining OD sales was made in isolation (that is, assuming other variables being equal).
Box office always matters. That is why conversion rate is discussed so prevalently.

You cannot measure relative success (which 'sustain' and 'maintain' imply) without discussing box office.
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Old 11-17-2011, 12:10 PM   #199  
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Box office always matters. That is why conversion rate is discussed so prevalently.

You cannot measure relative success (which 'sustain' and 'maintain' imply) without discussing box office.
Box office has been relatively flat over the years. I don't see what your point is. The original remark was made in isolation to all the other variables. How is that a lie if you can't disprove it?
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Old 11-17-2011, 12:11 PM   #200  
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Box office has been relatively flat over the years. I don't see what your point is.
Box office difference between 2007 (the starting point you listed) and 2010 (last full year of data) was right around $1 billion dollars.

Not flat.
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Old 11-17-2011, 12:58 PM   #201  
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Box office difference between 2007 (the starting point you listed) and 2010 (last full year of data) was right around $1 billion dollars.

Not flat.
Yes, but box office has been going up because of ticket inflation, and new release home video prices have been relatively stable over the years (which is a good thing, I think). To get an apples to apple comparison you would need to adjust the box office figures to remove the inflation factor out. For example 2010 dollars are only worth 95 cents in 2007.

Anyway, it's obvious that consumer are willing to accept inflating theater ticket prices but not home video.
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Old 11-17-2011, 01:33 PM   #202  
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A wise man once said "revenue is the great equalizer". Who was that guy?
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Old 11-17-2011, 02:04 PM   #203  
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Yes, but box office has been going up because of ticket inflation, and new release home video prices have been relatively stable over the years (which is a good thing, I think). To get an apples to apple comparison you would need to adjust the box office figures to remove the inflation factor out. For example 2010 dollars are only worth 95 cents in 2007.

Anyway, it's obvious that consumer are willing to accept inflating theater ticket prices but not home video.
Thats because its a "night out on the town" and away from home.
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Old 11-17-2011, 04:47 PM   #204  
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A wise man once said "revenue is the great equalizer". Who was that guy?
A wiser man would have said "profit is the great equalizer". The above statement holds true only if the proportion of profit generated from that revenue remains constant.

Theater operating costs have steady risen over the years, as a much greater proportion of costs are labor and overhead, as opposed to OD production, which sees material costs and production actually improve over time.

That's why you see CE products with falling prices while service oriented products (like theater and concerts) steadily climb.

The bottom line is that while box office may be going up, the difference is going to the theater operators rather than as profit for the studios.
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Old 11-17-2011, 04:54 PM   #205  
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Thats because its a "night out on the town" and away from home.
And keep in mind that theater is still cheaper than many other forms of "away from home" entertainment. Also for movies away from home, the theater has no competition. You get to see it first and away from home, while OD has competition from cable, streaming and rental, which keeps prices in check.
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Old 11-17-2011, 05:20 PM   #206  
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A wiser man would have said "profit is the great equalizer". The above statement holds true only if the proportion of profit generated from that revenue remains constant.

Theater operating costs have steady risen over the years, as a much greater proportion of costs are labor and overhead, as opposed to OD production, which sees material costs and production actually improve over time.

That's why you see CE products with falling prices while service oriented products (like theater and concerts) steadily climb.

The bottom line is that while box office may be going up, the difference is going to the theater operators rather than as profit for the studios.
Ultimately, income is what the studios care about. But margin is an impact of internal business. Not of strength of sustaining conversion rates that is the traditional measurement of Home Video strength (as measured in revenue).

When measuring relative strength, revenue IS the great equalizer. Period. Always has been, always will be. It is the best measurement tool for measuring consumer interest.

And to get you back on track. You are defending the assertion that OD revenue has been "maintained" and "sustained" by Blu-ray. It hasn't. OD Home Video sell through has lagged box office. This is not fantasyland where the facts don't matter, or a propaganda site. That is why studios are changing budgets. That is why RIFs are happening.

This forum is the place where we acknowledge those truths impacting the industry and don't sugarcoat it. This is the place where we call PR spin downplaying the truth what it is... a lie.
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Old 11-17-2011, 05:30 PM   #207  
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BTW... I agree that discussions around margin and profit are great to discuss, as they do have a big impact on the business, including studio decisions.

I just don't think we need to perpetuate a lie to actually discuss how those other actual topics come into play.
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Old 11-17-2011, 05:44 PM   #208  
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And to get you back on track. You are defending the assertion that OD revenue has been "maintained" and "sustained" by Blu-ray. It hasn't. OD Home Video sell through has lagged box office. This is not fantasyland where the facts don't matter, or a propaganda site. That is why studios are changing budgets. That is why RIFs are happening.

This forum is the place where we acknowledge those truths impacting the industry and don't sugarcoat it. This is the place where we call PR spin downplaying the truth what it is... a lie.
To get me back on track? You're the one who diverted from sustaining OD revenue to how box office affects it, and I just played along.

Anyway all in good fun, but the original point I was making is that by stating "Blu-ray is sustaining OD revenue", does not mean someone is lying. I think you're getting just a little carried away by making sure the tag "lie" is applied here. You gotta give people the benefit of the doubt a little more and not assume the worst.

I was only defending the "sustaining" remark as a devil's advocate by showing you that it's possible to believe it and say it without being a liar. In your case, you think conversion rates have to be sustained as well, but that's just your opinion. And given that theater prices have to go up over time to sustain profits, while OD prices do not, I don't think conversion rates have to be a prerequisite for sustaining OD either, as along as profits are.

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Old 11-17-2011, 08:01 PM   #209  
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I was only defending the "sustaining" remark as a devil's advocate by showing you that it's possible to believe it and say it without being a liar.
I know exactly what you were doing. Which is why I referred to this, without beating it over your head. To show that I knew you were playing devil's advocate:

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Originally Posted by bruceames
Haha, good one Silverado. 3D theater seats cost about $5 more, but so do 3D combo packs. They offset each other, and why other people can't see that is beyond me.
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Originally Posted by bruceames
So a majority of consumers making the choice to spend more on movie tickets. In this economy. What's the world coming to?!

Face it, revenue is the great equalizer. Consumers show interest with their wallets, not with their butts. Studios measure success in dollars and sense, not with units sold.
http://forums.highdefdigest.com/high...ml#post2262169


But when playing devil's advocate you are ignoring the context of the statement (Blu-ray is sustaining and maintaining sell through OD revenue) and who is making it. If someone told me the world was flat, I would not automatically jump to calling them a liar.

Now if I knew they had a great understanding of geology (indeed, more than the average person) and had demonstrated the knowledge and intelligence to KNOW better, and that they had ties to a group who would benefit from pushing the lie that the world was flat... then yes, I could call it a lie.

At it's base, someone could:
  • Have little understanding of the impact of conversion rates
  • Could not have knowledge of studio layoffs
  • Could not have knowledge of studio execs discussing the sobering decline of conversion rates
  • Could not be aware of studio layoffs in Home Video
  • Could not be aware of studio execs discussing changing budgets of new releases due to the decline in new release revenue
  • Could not be aware of studios actually following through on changing budgets of major releases (with bankable stars and directors)

And if that was all true, they could truly believe that revenue was being "maintained" and "sustained" due to ignorance or lack of intellect.

We both know that is not the case with those making the assertion.


And really my issue with perpetuating the lie, is that people who don't know better may believe it because it is spun so well. Meanwhile, people are losing their jobs and productions are being impacted because OD sell through revenue is not being sustained by ANYTHING (including Blu-ray).

Last edited by PSound; 11-17-2011 at 08:24 PM..
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Old 11-17-2011, 09:55 PM   #210  
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Lol, I was talking a little smack when I said that. But even though I believe new release revenue is declining like everything else, I'm not going to make assumptions on others that they're lying, if they believe otherwise. And even if I felt that way I'd keep it to myself because after all, calling someone a liar is a personal attack. It's better to attack the argument. Besides, a lot of the disagreement is merely differences in semantics.

You define sustained OD revenue as meaning sustained conversion rates, and honestly I disagree with that. Sure, conversion rates is the only tool available to those who don't have access to inside info. But it doesn't take a genius to figure out that the model is flawed because it doesn't account that ticket prices need to go up to cover rising overhead while OD prices can remain flat while maintaining the same margins as before (some costs do go up but others go down). So you're not getting apples to apples anymore.

That's cool, as long as one can recognize that flaw in the model and give it its due consideration (if they think it's still worth using at that point).

No question though that studios are hurting and OD losses are a big part of that. But bigger budgets are probably just as big a reason or even more, and I also suspect that box office profits may be down even though revenue may be up. The last 10 years box office is only up 10% and we all know that theater expenses have risen much more than that.
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