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Old 03-21-2012, 07:47 PM   #2056  
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Old 03-21-2012, 07:57 PM   #2057  
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Week Ending 03/18/12


Blu-ray Unit Marketshare:

50% for The Adventures of Tintin
32% for Descendants
23% for Happy Feet Two.



Quote:
'Happy Feet Two' Dances Way to Top Sales Spot

21 Mar, 2012
By: Thomas K. Arnold


Happy Feet Two

The approach of Spring Break continues to find studios stepping up their release schedules of high-profile titles, as Hollywood home video marketers take aim at out-of-school kids and their Easter gift-giving parents.

Three new releases landed in the top three slots on the weekly Nielsen VideoScan First Alert sales chart, which tracks all disc sales at most big retailers except Walmart and Sam’s Club, as well as Nielsen’s dedicated Blu-ray Disc sales chart for the week ended March 18.

On the overall sales chart, Warner Home Video’s Happy Feet Two, which earned $64 million in U.S. theaters, debuted at No. 1. Paramount’s The Adventures of Tintin ($77.6 million) bowed at No. 2 and 20th Century Fox’s The Descendants ($82 million) debuted at No. 3.

The first two films are animated family features; Descendants is an Oscar-winning dramatic comedy that stars George Clooney in a critically hailed performance as a wealthy father who tries to reconnect with his daughters after his wife is seriously injured in a boating accident.

On the Blu-ray Disc sales chart, all three films also captured the top three spots, albeit in a different order. The top-selling Blu-ray Disc was Adventures of Tintin, with Descendants following at No. 2 and Happy Feet Two trailing at No. 3.

Accordingly, Nielsen research shows Tintin generated 50% of its sales from the Blu-ray Disc format, compared to 32% for Descendants and just 23% for Happy Feet Two.

On Home Media Magazine’s weekly video rental chart, Adventures of Tintin was an easy winner, in part due to the fact that Paramount doesn’t delay shipping its new releases to rental dealers.

Sony Pictures’ Jack and Jill slipped to No. 2 after two weeks in the top spot, followed by another new release, Summit Entertainment’s The Three Musketeers, which debuted at No. 3.
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...les-spot-26746
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Old 03-21-2012, 07:58 PM   #2058  
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Quote:
...the weekly Nielsen VideoScan First Alert sales chart, which tracks all disc sales at most big retailers except Walmart and Sam’s Club
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...les-spot-26746
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Old 03-21-2012, 08:17 PM   #2059  
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Apparently The-Numbers didn't get that memo. Their ratios have been tracking Nielsen to with 1-2% accuracy since last August and they do include Walmart in their estimates. So either Walmarts BD share is almost exactly the same, on nearly every tracked Nielsen title, or one of those sites is wrong. Which is it Kosty?

from The-Numbers site:
Quote:
The figures include estimated sales at Wal-Mart and other retailers that do not publicly release sales information

Latest weeks comparison (Nielsen vs. The-Numbers) of market share among common titles. Notice they are practically identical among all 7 titles, the biggest difference being only 0.2%!

Now The-Numbers is including Walmart, but Nielsen isn't. And yet the market share is virtually the same. So much for the significance of Walmart being excluded from Nielsen.

Code:
DVDunits BDunits TNshare Nielsen	Title
648,947	926,964	58.8%	58.8%	Immortals
517,860	679,557	56.8%	56.7%	Game of Thrones: The Complete First Season
461,401	187,618	28.9%	28.9%	Footloose
409,356	159,531	28.0%	28.2%	Jack and Jill
376,000	153,783	29.0%	29.2%	Puss in Boots
206,495	175,382	45.9%	46.0%	Hugo
129,270	86,300	40.0%	40.1%	The Lion King 2: Simba's Pride
.

Last edited by bruceames; 03-21-2012 at 08:40 PM..
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Old 03-21-2012, 09:13 PM   #2060  
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Happy Feet at only 23%? Guess I'm going to use that as an example for what every BD gets for now on. Cherry-pickin' the lowest is the way to go!
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Old 03-21-2012, 09:44 PM   #2061  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Apparently The-Numbers didn't get that memo. Their ratios have been tracking Nielsen to with 1-2% accuracy since last August and they do include Walmart in their estimates. So either Walmarts BD share is almost exactly the same, on nearly every tracked Nielsen title, or one of those sites is wrong. Which is it Kosty?

from The-Numbers site:



Latest weeks comparison (Nielsen vs. The-Numbers) of market share among common titles. Notice they are practically identical among all 7 titles, the biggest difference being only 0.2%!

Now The-Numbers is including Walmart, but Nielsen isn't. And yet the market share is virtually the same. So much for the significance of Walmart being excluded from Nielsen.

Code:
DVDunits BDunits TNshare Nielsen	Title
648,947	926,964	58.8%	58.8%	Immortals
517,860	679,557	56.8%	56.7%	Game of Thrones: The Complete First Season
461,401	187,618	28.9%	28.9%	Footloose
409,356	159,531	28.0%	28.2%	Jack and Jill
376,000	153,783	29.0%	29.2%	Puss in Boots
206,495	175,382	45.9%	46.0%	Hugo
129,270	86,300	40.0%	40.1%	The Lion King 2: Simba's Pride
.
In the past year since we have gotten the The-Numbers data there has been more variation even in the weeks since August 2011 when it really closed there are outliers. In the past month or so I've seem some titles having some random variations so its not always that close.

For family orientated and chick flick titles there is probably more variation at Walmart as it still sells more DVD than average and that sometimes does show up in the The-Numbers data. But ever since last fall the Walmart unit share has closed a lot for Blu-ray sales and its much closer to the overall industry marketshare now for most titles. Its probably within any margin or error now anyway so perhaps The-Numbers is generally now just defaulting to that for simplicity. They have to use it at least as a sanity check in any case.

There were recent reports that Walmart is much closer to its routine DVD marketshare of 40% for Blu-ray ever since 4Q 2011 so for mos titles its going to be rather close and close to the margin of error in any case.

But it does seem with weeks like that that The-Numbers is at the minimum using the Nielsen Videoscan numbers as a sanity check at the very least or a shortcut or crib sheet at the most.

I've been told that Walmart is within a percent or so now for almost all releases to the industry average with the exception being high volume family titles or female skewing genre titles like romantic comedies and things like Twilight Saga that do a lot of young female volumes.
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Old 03-21-2012, 09:49 PM   #2062  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GizmoDVD View Post
Happy Feet at only 23%? Guess I'm going to use that as an example for what every BD gets for now on. Cherry-pickin' the lowest is the way to go!
We all realize that you will continue to do what you do.

If you want to use the lowest number you can see as an average example then that's your own delusion and distortion of the reality of the situation.

Whatever floats your boat. At least we will all be clear of your agenda.
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Old 03-21-2012, 09:54 PM   #2063  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
We all realize that you will continue to do what you do.

If you want to use the lowest number you can see as an average example then that's your own delusion and distortion of the reality of the situation.

Whatever floats your boat. At least we will all be clear of your agenda.
But it's perfectly acceptable for someone to use the highest %? Your agenda is crystal clear, don't worry.
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Old 03-21-2012, 09:55 PM   #2064  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Apparently The-Numbers didn't get that memo. Their ratios have been tracking Nielsen to with 1-2% accuracy since last August and they do include Walmart in their estimates. So either Walmarts BD share is almost exactly the same, on nearly every tracked Nielsen title, or one of those sites is wrong. Which is it Kosty?
Neither, they are both estimates. There is some random variation each week since August 2011 in any case and its not like all the titles are exact or are biased in the same way. The variation is much smaller but it still seems to be small but random on many weeks that I've checked. This week does seem to be too close for comfort though.

But 1-2% since last fall is probably where it should be for most titles as Walmart's Blu-ray unit marketshare closed a lot with the rest of the industry last fall as its Blu-ray volumes increased.

In any case that's getting close to any sort of margin of error in any weekly estimates that can be practically done so its at the least order of magnitude correct in any case.




Last edited by Kosty; 03-21-2012 at 10:02 PM..
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Old 03-21-2012, 10:09 PM   #2065  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GizmoDVD View Post
But it's perfectly acceptable for someone to use the highest %? Your agenda is crystal clear, don't worry.
Its factual to state what the highest numbers are for the week or what the records are to date. Its OK as well to see all the performance of all the titles we have data for as well, including the lowest. Each week I provide both. But over time one can easily see that Blu-ray title marketshares are steadily rising over time. But to only focus on the worst number you can find seems odd.

Its also factual to use the data on what the weekly Top 20 Sellers unit marketshare average is for the leading titles for each week and keep track of that metric over time.

I'm not the one that said I was going to only use the lowest number I could fine, that's you with that distortion if that's what you want to focus on but its not representative of what the market performance of Blu-ray or understand the reality of the situation.

Of course some titles will always be lower on any given week but that's always going to be the case. But over time even the lowest performing genre's are rising in Blu-ray marketshare even as they continue to lag the better matching genre's for Blu-ray.

I use all the data all the time but the higher numbers are the most noticeable more prominent important benchmarks in any given week as they show the continued growth and progress of the consistent upward trends.

I provide and keep track of as much data as I can find every week and for as far back as we have the data. Its all part of the picture.

Both the lowest numbers for each week and the highest numbers for Blu-ray marketshare units sold and revenues generated have steadily rose over time. Even you cannot deny that.






Last edited by Kosty; 03-21-2012 at 10:18 PM..
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Old 03-21-2012, 10:22 PM   #2066  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GizmoDVD View Post
Happy Feet at only 23%?

Guess I'm going to use that as an example for what every BD gets for now on.

Cherry-pickin' the lowest is the way to go!
Obviously using the lowest number you can find as an "example of what every BD gets" would be pretty absurd as it would not be an accurate representation of the average performance of the format.

Cherry picking data to distort the situation just to be argumentative is also just lame from a discussion standpoint as well.

Its always better to use as much accurate data as possible to make your points.
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Old 03-21-2012, 10:23 PM   #2067  
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Originally Posted by GizmoDVD View Post
But it's perfectly acceptable for someone to use the highest %? Your agenda is crystal clear, don't worry.
The highest % is a milestone, it shows whats achievable.
For example getting over 20% was a huge achievement for The Dark Knight. Now we're seeing a kids movie get 23%
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Old 03-21-2012, 10:25 PM   #2068  
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Maybe I'm dating myself here but I remember when Happy Feet came out during the format war on HD DVD and Blu-ray.

23% share is a big change from the pathetic numbers that title had during the format war years. Big change over the years.

Happy Feet came out on WE April 15, 2007 and sold only around 10,000 HD DVD and Blu-ray units that week. That would not even register against DVD in marketshare back then. Lots of progress since those format war days.

Last edited by Kosty; 03-21-2012 at 10:32 PM..
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Old 03-21-2012, 10:28 PM   #2069  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Neither, they are both estimates. There is some random variation each week since August 2011 in any case and its not like all the titles are exact or are biased in the same way. The variation is much smaller but it still seems to be small but random on many weeks that I've checked. This week does seem to be too close for comfort though.

But 1-2% since last fall is probably where it should be for most titles as Walmart's Blu-ray unit marketshare closed a lot with the rest of the industry last fall as its Blu-ray volumes increased.

In any case that's getting close to any sort of margin of error in any weekly estimates that can be practically done so its at the least order of magnitude correct in any case.



So if it's only 1-2% difference, then why are you making such a big deal about Nielsen excluding Walmart? You did just use bold red lettering, didn't you?
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Old 03-21-2012, 10:34 PM   #2070  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Its factual to state what the highest numbers are for the week or what the records are to date. Its OK as well to see all the performance of all the titles we have data for as well, including the lowest. Each week I provide both. But over time one can easily see that Blu-ray title marketshares are steadily rising over time. But to only focus on the worst number you can find seems odd.
Yep, 20% last year, 24% this year. Slow but steady. At this rate, Blu-ray will be at 50% in 2020.

Oh, and it's no more factual to state one extreme or another. It is deceptive to pass off the higher title share as if they were representative of the whole. Gizmo is just bringing balance by pitting your extreme against his.
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