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Old 03-20-2012, 06:52 PM   #2041  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Very interesting comparison between DVD and BD YoY. This year DVD is down 6.2% while Blu-ray is up 24.8%. Last year at this time (after 10 weeks), DVD was down 19.4% while Blu-ray was up 23.3%.

So the difference this year is DVD. It is doing much, much better this year compared to last, while Blu-ray is doing about the same. Surprising that Blu-ray's YoY is so modest considering box office is up 10.6%.

As for this last week, Blu-ray had genre-friendly Immortals and about $40 in BO power over last year, plus a bonus non-box office TV show Game of Thrones which placed #2 on the BD charts and did a 57% share. 35.7% YoY seems rather modest with that arsenal. All of last year's box office power was in comedy or drama.
Blu-ray at this point last year also had the advantage of Bambi as a new to Blu-ray release that was a bit more powerful than Lady and the Tramp.

Its not surprising that DVD would benefit more from the better TBO this year as a lot of that was the Twilight Saga movie which skewed DVD and the residuals in January from last year.

$40 M in box office power is pretty trivial for a week with over $200M TBO and last year also had The Walking Dead and Jackass 3D which skewed toward PS3 users and Blu-ray as well.

35.7% share increase for Blu-ray with a 23.5% TBO gain with similar genre titles this year and last does not sound that bad to me at all. That's over performing the TBO increase.

The real difference for Blu-ray and DVD will come in a month or so when this years stats will not be driven down by Avatar and Alice in Wonderland like they were last year.

Last edited by Kosty; 03-20-2012 at 07:09 PM..
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Old 03-20-2012, 06:58 PM   #2042  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
This is already the 3rd week this year that DVD has been positive YoY, while there were only 2 such weeks all of last year (shown below). Notice what the BD YoY was in those 5 weeks, all of them over 61%, with the exception of this week, which was 35.7%.

Code:
Week Date      OD     OD YoY      DVD    DVD YoY       BD    BD YoY  BD Share  TBO2012 TBO2011
2012:
10  3/10     165.27     9.5%     123.11     2.7%      42.16   35.7%    25.5%     216.0   177.1
7   2/18     207.15    18.9%     160.38    10.4%      46.77   61.7%    22.6%      16.4    86.2
6   2/11     205.54    19.4%     151.09     3.1%      54.45  104.2%    26.5%     316.5   224.0

2011:													2011:
15  4/16     184.50    48.7%     134.40    24.8%      50.10  205.3%    27.2%     314.8     8.1
14  4/9      174.66    21.6%     128.60     5.9%      46.06  107.5%    26.5%     424.5     9.4
.
Of course. That's the Twilight Saga effect this year.

2/11 and 2/18 is the first weekend and full week of Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1. That helped DVD a lot even more than Blu-ray as its a lagging Blu-ray genre. But Blu-ray was still helped.

1Q 2010 and 1Q 2012 will benefit in the statistics as they have a Twilight Saga release while 1Q 2011 last year suffered comparison wise as it was sans Twilight Saga.


4/9 and 4/16 last year was Tron: Legacy and Harry Potter The Deathly Hallows 1 with the carry over from Tangled.

Last edited by Kosty; 03-20-2012 at 07:01 PM..
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Old 03-20-2012, 07:03 PM   #2043  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Updated thru week ending 3/10/12
Table of Blu-ray sales (HMM and DEG)
numbers are in (revenue) millions.
Weekly figures are from HMM (Home Media Magazine

Code:
2012 HMM    1560.55    -0.3%    1191.13    -6.2%     369.32   24.8%    23.7%    1596.1  1443.6										
Week Date      OD     OD YoY      DVD    DVD YoY       BD    BD YoY  BD Share  TBO2012 TBO2011										

10  3/10     165.27     9.5%     123.11     2.7%      42.16   35.7%    25.5%     216.0   177.1
9   3/3      150.39   -14.0%     115.29   -13.4%      35.10  -15.7%    23.3%      67.0   112.3
8   2/25     158.98    -2.2%     122.04    -7.3%      36.94   19.4%    23.2%     272.1   258.0
7   2/18     207.15    18.9%     160.38    10.4%      46.77   61.7%    22.6%      16.4    86.2
6   2/11     205.54    19.4%     151.09     3.1%      54.45  104.2%    26.5%     316.5   224.0
5   2/4      144.90    -8.6%     110.25   -16.0%      34.65   27.1%    23.9%     118.5    23.0
4   1/28     131.95   -13.6%      98.40   -20.2%      33.55   14.2%    25.4%     226.3   201.2
3   1/21     129.39    -2.4%     103.53    -4.9%      25.86    8.9%    20.0%     112.7    60.7
2   1/14     128.65    -5.1%     100.16    -7.7%      28.49    5.6%    22.1%     143.4   116.2
1   1/7      138.33    -8.0%     106.88   -11.6%      31.35    7.0%    22.7%     157.7   134.3

2011 DEG    8951.80   -13.2%    6851.80   -19.5%    2150.00   19.4%    24.0%    
2011 HMM    8604.20   -13.9%    6608.28   -20.3%    1995.92   17.7%    23.2%    9936.0 10820.9																			

Q4 DEG      3338.95   -11.0%    2464.81   -16.5%     924.14   15.5%    27.7%
Q4 HMM      3125.11   -12.4%    2280.75   -19.5%     844.36   15.1%    27.0%    3698.4  3932.2

52  12/31    174.13   -25.6%     130.29   -28.7%      43.84  -14.7%    25.2%      64.3    95.9
51  12/24    482.11   -13.1%     368.59   -16.9%     113.52    2.2%    23.5%     205.6   303.6
50  12/17    369.89   -23.4%     280.58   -26.8%      89.31  -10.1%    24.1%     360.7   635.3
49  12/10    322.48   -14.5%     243.85   -18.6%      78.63    1.5%    24.4%     624.8   535.6
48  12/3     229.49   -23.3%     173.97   -27.5%      55.52   -6.2%    24.2%     282.0   496.0
47  11/26    388.67   -12.4%     300.39   -16.5%      88.28    5.0%    22.7%     194.5   185.3
46  11/19    166.84   -14.3%     127.57   -18.0%      39.27    0.5%    23.5%      41.6   359.0
45  11/12    183.17     2.5%     128.95   -12.0%      54.22   68.3%    29.6%     422.9   251.3
44  11/5     167.53   -16.8%     117.59   -22.8%      49.94    2.0%    29.8%     335.6   414.9
43  10/29    147.15    11.2%      96.66   -11.3%      50.49  115.6%    33.6%     204.5   108.7
42  10/22    156.94     9.5%      95.94   -17.1%      61.00  120.8%    38.9%     370.0    56.0
41  10/15    152.92    -2.4%     106.50   -14.1%      46.42   42.2%    30.4%     343.3   233.0
40  10/8     183.79     9.3%     109.87    -9.4%      73.92   57.7%    40.2%     248.6   257.6

Q3 DEG      1742.79    -4.0%    1320.93   -14.7%     421.86   58.0%    24.2%
Q3 HMM      1667.09    -4.9%    1298.39   -13.9%     368.70   49.9%    22.1%    1806.3  1609.5										

39  10/1     152.58   -14.3%     109.97   -20.4%      42.61    7.1%    27.9%     352.1   382.7
38  9/24     153.60     5.0%     108.69   -12.5%      44.91  103.6%    29.2%     169.3   112.5
37  9/17     164.69    14.0%     107.37   -14.2%      57.32  197.2%    34.8%     190.8   165.2
36  9/10     128.84     0.0%     102.29   -10.5%      26.55   82.9%    20.6%     189.3    60.3
35  9/3      119.04    -9.5%     100.87   -13.7%      18.17   23.5%    15.3%      65.6    95.1
34  8/27     109.34   -13.1%      91.74   -16.6%      17.60   11.5%    16.1%      12.6    45.3
33  8/20     124.53    -4.4%     101.11   -12.8%      23.42   63.3%    18.8%     100.8    81.2
32  8/13     122.13    -1.8%      98.44    -9.5%      23.69   51.8%    19.4%     118.0   143.9
31  8/6      139.66     1.4%     111.78    -3.6%      27.88   27.9%    20.0%     189.8   133.5
30  7/30     108.78   -18.3%      89.06   -20.2%      19.72   -8.7%    18.1%      56.8   177.2
29  7/23     120.50    -1.9%      97.25    -9.4%      23.25   49.9%    19.3%      88.3    72.7
28  7/16     118.09    -4.8%      94.88   -13.5%      23.21   61.7%    19.7%     267.8    94.7
27  7/9      105.31   -16.7%      84.94   -22.7%      20.37   22.9%    19.3%       5.1    45.2										
		
Q2 DEG      1831      -15.0%    1434      -18.8%     397       9.4%    21.7%
Q2 HMM      1791.55   -12.2%    1402.94   -16.7%     388.61    9.1%    21.7%    2314.8  2422.0

26  7/2      127.11   -12.3%      96.32   -21.6%      30.79   39.4%    24.2%     102.3   181.4
25  6/25     123.25    -7.7%      98.18   -12.8%      25.07   20.1%    20.3%     205.4    85.8
24  6/18     149.89   -11.2%     114.68   -17.7%      35.21   19.5%    23.5%     208.2   142.8
23  6/11     130.81   -13.6%     103.23   -18.6%      27.58   12.3%    21.1%     305.0   152.6
22  6/4      118.16   -34.1%      96.17   -32.8%      21.99  -39.1%    18.6%      15.8   386.8
21  5/28     113.83   -16.6%      91.37   -22.9%      22.46   24.9%    19.7%     154.4    87.9
20  5/21     111.98   -15.2%      91.84   -18.9%      20.14    7.2%    18.0%      99.8   185.7
19  5/14     111.02   -23.6%      90.00   -26.8%      21.02   -6.2%    18.9%     155.6   113.6
18  5/7      122.05   -25.2%      99.74   -29.5%      22.31   -7.7%    18.3%     141.5   106.1
17  4/30     106.99   -40.6%      86.94   -39.6%      20.05  -44.5%    18.7%       0.0   120.5
16  4/23     217.30    -8.3%     171.47    -0.3%      45.83  -29.4%    21.1%     187.5   841.3
15  4/16     184.50    48.7%     134.40    24.8%      50.10  205.3%    27.2%     314.8     8.1
14  4/9      174.66    21.6%     128.60     5.9%      46.06  107.5%    26.5%     424.5     9.4
										
Q1 DEG      2068      -20.0%    1661      -25.0%     407      10.0%    19.7%		
Q1 HMM      2020.45   -23.2%    1626.20   -28.4%     394.25    9.4%    19.5%    2116.5  2857.2

13  4/2      192.11   -36.0%     144.16   -44.6%      47.95   20.1%    25.0%     300.9   461.1
12  3/26     135.54   -49.8%     110.21   -50.9%      25.33  -44.1%    18.7%     218.0   335.6
11  3/19     138.72   -46.5%     112.58   -49.6%      26.14  -27.1%    18.8%     154.2   534.3
10  3/12     146.96   -24.4%     116.11   -30.8%      30.85   16.5%    21.0%     177.0   247.2
9   3/5      174.59    -7.2%     132.93   -15.4%      41.66   34.1%    23.9%     112.3   258.8
8   2/26     160.96     4.5%     130.35    -2.5%      30.61   50.7%    19.0%     258.0    74.9
7   2/19     172.68    -8.1%     143.99   -12.7%      28.69   25.0%    16.6%      86.2    80.1
6   2/12     172.00   -19.4%     145.34   -23.1%      26.66    8.9%    15.5%     224.0   211.0
5   2/5      158.26   -16.7%     131.08   -20.8%      27.18   11.1%    17.2%      23.0   114.6
4   1/29     151.21   -14.6%     122.05   -20.9%      29.16   27.6%    19.3%     201.2   151.6
3   1/22     131.62   -16.3%     107.98   -21.0%      23.64   14.8%    18.0%      60.7    61.0
2   1/15     135.49   -17.3%     108.51   -23.9%      26.98   27.0%    19.9%     143.3   137.8
1   1/8      150.31   -14.1%     120.91   -19.5%      29.40   18.6%    19.6%     157.7   189.2

OD = optical disc (DVD + Blu-ray)
YoY = year over year percentage change
TBO = total box office
BD = Blu-ray
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Old 03-20-2012, 07:05 PM   #2044  
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LOL

25.51% Blu-ray unit marketshare barely made the rounding up to 26% on the pie chart. Hand grenades and horseshoes.

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Old 03-20-2012, 07:11 PM   #2045  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Blu-ray at this point last year also had the advantage of Bambi as a new to Blu-ray release that was a bit more powerful than Lady and the Tramp.
Speculation whether Bambi did better than Lady and the Tramp. Do you have any sales figures to back that up?

Quote:
Its not surprising that DVD would benefit more from the better TBO this year as a lot of that was the Twilight Saga movie which skewed DVD and the residuals in January from last year.
Give it a rest. Twilight came out 6 weeks ago, and we already know that it did about a 24-25% unit share, which is what Blu-ray is doing overall anyway in revenue. So it's NOT skewing toward any format, and if it did, it would be Blu-ray because the average selling price of the Twilight BD is higher.

Quote:
$40 M in box office power is pretty trivial for a week with over $200M TBO and last year also had The Walking Dead and Jackass 3D which skewed toward PS3 users and Blu-ray as well. 35.7% share increase for Blu-ray with a 23.50% TBO gain with similar genre titles this year and last does not sound that bad to me at all.
$40 million may be paltry, but no more so than the 35.7% YoY that Blu-ray did based on that $40 million BO improvement + more favorable genre titles + Game of Thrones.

[/quote]
The real difference for Blu-ray and DVD will come in a month or so when this years stats will not be driven down by Avatar and Alice in Wonderland like they were last year.[/QUOTE]

Once again, Avatar actually underperformed on OD compared to its box office power, and Q2 box office as a whole was only down 4.4%.
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Old 03-20-2012, 07:14 PM   #2046  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Of course. That's the Twilight Saga effect this year.

2/11 and 2/18 is the first weekend and full week of Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1. That helped DVD a lot even more than Blu-ray as its a lagging Blu-ray genre. But Blu-ray was still helped.

1Q 2010 and 1Q 2012 will benefit in the statistics as they have a Twilight Saga release while 1Q 2011 last year suffered comparison wise as it was sans Twilight Saga.


4/9 and 4/16 last year was Tron: Legacy and Harry Potter The Deathly Hallows 1 with the carry over from Tangled.
And Twilight gave Blu-ray 25% in units, which is more than that in revenue. Since Blu-ray got more than its normal share from that title, what does it have to show for it? Doing about the same YoY this year is last.
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Old 03-20-2012, 07:18 PM   #2047  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post

Give it a rest. Twilight came out 6 weeks ago, and we already know that it did about a 24-25% unit share, which is what Blu-ray is doing overall anyway in revenue. So it's NOT skewing toward any format, and if it did, it would be Blu-ray because the average selling price of the Twilight BD is higher..
You were making the point of DVD being up. A lot of DVD being up is the magnitude of the impact of the Twilight Saga movie which did more DVD volume than Blu-ray.
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Old 03-20-2012, 07:27 PM   #2048  
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And Twilight gave Blu-ray 25% in units, which is more than that in revenue. Since Blu-ray got more than its normal share from that title, what does it have to show for it? Doing about the same YoY this year is last.
The point I was trying to make is that a lot of the DVD rise is based on the strength and genre of releases in the Twilight Saga release. So that's adding to the YoY growth of DVD and helping the OD stats. You pointed out those weeks 6 weeks ago as well.

Blu-ray is indeed doing about the same growth so far as last year at the 10 week point but it has a chance to gain a bit more in the next three weeks of the quarter.

The difference in the YoY statistics going forward this year is that we are not going to have an uncontested $760 M box office Avatar and a $334 M box office Alice in Wonderland driving down the YoY statistics.





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Old 03-20-2012, 07:32 PM   #2049  
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$40 million may be paltry, but no more so than the 35.7% YoY that Blu-ray did based on that $40 million BO improvement + more favorable genre titles + Game of Thrones.
$40 M is an small difference when you are talking about $216.03 compared to $174.93.

That's +23.50% more TBO.

+37.50% up for Blu-ray YoY growth is noticeably more than +23.50%.
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Old 03-20-2012, 07:38 PM   #2050  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty
The real difference for Blu-ray and DVD will come in a month or so when this years stats will not be driven down by Avatar and Alice in Wonderland like they were last year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames
Once again, Avatar actually underperformed on OD compared to its box office power, and Q2 box office as a whole was only down 4.4%
Sure but that's not the point. OD gains or losses are never one to one with box office strength. There is a bit of diminishing returns as a lot of major box office performance is repeat viewing which does not mean more individual consumers showing interest in the title only intensity and few individuals are going to buy multiple packaged media copies even if they saw the movie more than once.

Its obvious what the huge uncontested tentpoles of Twilight Saga, Avatar and Alice in Wonderland did to depress the YoY statistics last year even though the 2Q TBO got closer over time.

That's not going to happen in that way this year so we are not going to drop to only a 7% growth rate hole that we will have to climb out of this year.

Its more likely that where we end up with after Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol next month which is likely to be a bit better than last year will only continue to rise over the summer once again and that metric will probably be in better shape when the summer releases hit the street this fall.

Spoiler:





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Old 03-20-2012, 08:26 PM   #2051  
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Sure but that's not the point. OD gains or losses are never one to one with box office strength. There is a bit of diminishing returns as a lot of major box office performance is repeat viewing which does not mean more individual consumers showing interest in the title only intensity and few individuals are going to buy multiple packaged media copies even if they saw the movie more than once.

Its obvious what the huge uncontested tentpoles of Twilight Saga, Avatar and Alice in Wonderland did to depress the YoY statistics last year even though the 2Q TBO got closer over time.

That's not going to happen in that way this year so we are not going to drop to only a 7% growth rate hole that we will have to climb out of this year.

Its more likely that where we end up with after Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol next month which is likely to be a bit better than last year will only continue to rise over the summer once again and that metric will probably be in better shape when the summer releases hit the street this fall.
It's the only point. Avatar's box office conversion ratio was less than normal. End of story.
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Old 03-20-2012, 08:30 PM   #2052  
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$40 M is an small difference when you are talking about $216.03 compared to $174.93.

That's +23.50% more TBO.

+37.50% up for Blu-ray YoY growth is noticeably more than +23.50%.
+37.50% rather than +23.50% is only $3.75 million in extra revenue.

And you have yet to mention Game of Thrones.
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Old 03-20-2012, 08:32 PM   #2053  
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You were making the point of DVD being up. A lot of DVD being up is the magnitude of the impact of the Twilight Saga movie which did more DVD volume than Blu-ray.
Bottom line box office power is up 10.5% YoY. DVD has responded in kind. Blu-ray has not.
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Old 03-20-2012, 09:33 PM   #2054  
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+37.50% rather than +23.50% is only $3.75 million in extra revenue.

And you have yet to mention Game of Thrones.
Last year had The Walking Dead as well, not quite Game of Thorns but still a similar genre TV release.
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Old 03-20-2012, 09:39 PM   #2055  
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Bottom line box office power is up 10.5% YoY. DVD has responded in kind. Blu-ray has not.
Blu-ray has responded to the better box office, its already reached much higher than it did for last years YoY highs.

But there is no story there. Most of the box office gain is with Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1, a teen vampire romance monster blockbuster hit that skews toward Blu-ray lagging young female demographics. Of course DVD has responded better to it than Blu-ray has done. Like this week where Blu-ray did better than DVD with these genre releases. Absolutely expected results with no surprises.

But even right after Twilight this year Blu-ray was at +32.69% YoY, which was the highest it was at that metric since we have been tracking it it in the last couple years. So Blu-ray did respond to the box office increase as well. Its likely to end the 1Q 2012 at a much higher level than 1Q 2011 as you just can't a snapshot of it this week or last and say its the same. Its been higher in the yoY metric than last year for most of the last 5 weeks.

Better box office performing titles have done better on packaged media sales in the year to year comparisons in both last year and this year statistics. No surprise there at all.






Last edited by Kosty; 03-21-2012 at 02:29 AM..
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