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Old 03-20-2012, 12:30 PM   #2026  
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Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
That's the thing with you guys being in denial. Even though I have corrected this before it's again and again. I never said or have said Bluray had to do as well as DVD for me to consider it a success. Kosty, I've corrected you on this several times. But you keep trying to use this defense. Probably because it's the only defense.

I've always said that I would consider Bluray a success if it at least got close to doing what DVD did. Or at least do as well as VHS. As it is it looks quite clear it will do neither. In fact it looks like it will fall way short of even VHS's numbers. This is with a much better product, years later with many more people in the world to sell to.

Oh and Danny? No I fell to the hype from guys like you and Kosty who are always running to the defense of Bluray. Ignoring comon sense. I fell to the hype of all the hype during the format war. How you guys pumped up how you thought people cared about all those pixals and bit rates because they would make all the difference in the world. After all you guys argued it was these minor benifits that Bluray offered over HDDVD that would win the format war. In the end it wasn't that at all. It was all internal deals and a game system that was going to create an unnatural advantage giving skewed numbers that studios bought into. You proved it yourself. You know that just because people buy big HD TVs does not guarantee they will use it for HD. Infact we know the percentage shows people actually buy them for the size of the screen.

It's cute when I see guys like you try to act like this is all completely expected. After the fact...

LOL!
You are not talking about me hyping Blu-ray during the format war. I was a prominent HD DVD supporter who even though I liked and enjoyed Blu-ray since Feb 2007 and my first PS3 I was among the most prominent skeptical Blu-ray commentators on the planet during the format war. But once HD DVD died I moved on an appreciated Blu-ray after it solved the issues I was most concerned about during the format war.

I did not defend Blu-ray during the format war as much as I was a HD DVD supporter that liked Blu-ray but thought HD DVD was the better option and was good enough to do the job.

Blu-ray is never going to get close to what DVD did at its peak in overall sales. Perhaps for new releases maybe, but not overall as many of the stuff released on DVD would never make sense to release on Blu-ray. But I do not care about that stuff on the format.

Blu-ray has long since exceeded my expectations and the rest is gravy.
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Old 03-20-2012, 12:39 PM   #2027  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
Huh? They had no choice really. Imagine a word where BD layers only played BD discs. BD would likely be dead and we would be enjoying HD DVD right now.
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Originally Posted by bombsnizzle View Post
lol.

You just can't get over it.
Seriously. Wow.

I never will regret buying my HD DVD hardware and movies and enjoying them to this day, but I think I've long ago accepted that Blu-ray was the better option despite my enthusiastic support for HD DVD over Blu-ray back in the day.

Comments like that really kinda make it seem that a lot your current skepticism against Blu-ray comes from your team losing the format war four years ago and its a continuation of a blood feud or something against Blu-ray that started during the format war days..

I do agree that it was essential that both HD DVD and Blu-ray offer playback of DVD so it was never an option for them to do without. That's also sustaining to a degree the DVD sales and rental streams as well as Blu-ray players are DVD players too.

Personally, I think that HD DVD would have even a harder time today making a case against streaming and Netflix and cheap DVD rentals and 3D on HD DVD would have been more difficult as well. I think Blu-ray is doing better now than HD DVD would have done. Blu-ray certainly exceeded by 4Q 2010 any projections for HD DVD that the HD DVD proponents ever had and I don't see how HD DVD would have done any better since than Blu-ray has done.
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Old 03-20-2012, 12:43 PM   #2028  
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Quote:
Centris: Blu-ray Player Household Penetration Reaches 26%

20 Mar, 2012
By: Erik Gruenwedel



About one in four homes had a Blu-ray Disc player or capable consumer electronic device in the fourth quarter of 2011, up 47% from the same period in 2010, according to new research.

Horsham, Pa.-based Centris Research disclosed the finding in a quarterly report outlining communication and technology penetration in the home. The Blu-ray data mirrors weekly Home Media Magazine research figures, including that 23% of total disc sales ($36.9 million) revenue came from the high-definition format for the week ended Feb. 25.

It is the Blu-ray market that continues to drive packaged media sales and generate higher margins for studios than standard DVD, disc rentals, transactional video-on-demand and electronic sellthrough. The format is also a foundation in Hollywood’s effort to launch cloud-based digital locker UltraViolet.

Surprisingly, the number of households with a DVD player increased 4% to 91% in the period, compared with 87% in the previous year. The data underscores the notion that average consumer demand for optical disc entertainment remains strong.


In addition, the report – based on 2,000 Internet survey respondents monthly – found that household penetration of time delayed TV programming via digital video recorders (DVR) also increased 4% to 38% from 36% in 2010.

The report also found that HDTV penetration increased 6% to 63%, while high-definition TV service from multichannel video program distributors increased 11% to 42% of households. Households with a TV rose 1% to nearly 100% market penetration.

“The [data] shows that U.S. households continue to purchase a broad range of technologies,” said Bill Beaumont, president of Centris.
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/blu...aches-26-26721
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Old 03-20-2012, 12:59 PM   #2029  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post
Your data is old - anything newer?
Quote:
Originally Posted by bombsnizzle View Post
Old data is better than no data.

Feel free to contact nielsen and get the 2011 numbers.
Well this new article (see above) is johnny on the spot.

Quote:
"The report also found that HDTV penetration increased 6% to 63%, while high-definition TV service from multichannel video program distributors increased 11% to 42% of households. Households with a TV rose 1% to nearly 100% market penetration."
So in 2012, well over a decade after HDTV has been released, HDTV service is still in a minority of households, even those with HDTVs.

Why does HDTV service trail HDTV hardware?

Clearly the desire for HD content, from a provider or disc, does not match the desire for HDTV form factor.

So is HD cable/satellite a "failure" when compared to SD content? I mean, it's had a decade+ to overcome SD content and still hasn't.

Last edited by bombsnizzle; 03-20-2012 at 01:08 PM..
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Old 03-20-2012, 01:30 PM   #2030  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/blu...aches-26-26721

The report also found that HDTV penetration increased 6% to 63%
DEG from that link I provided above said "HDTV penetration is now at more than 74.5 million U.S. households", which is 64%, so that works.

There is a serious descrepancy in blu-ray player penetration, however. DEG says nearly 40 million homes have a blu-ray playback device. Centris says 29.7 million homes have a Blu-ray Disc player or capable consumer electronic device.
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Old 03-20-2012, 03:39 PM   #2031  
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Originally Posted by bombsnizzle View Post
Well this new article (see above) is johnny on the spot.



So in 2012, well over a decade after HDTV has been released, HDTV service is still in a minority of households, even those with HDTVs.

Why does HDTV service trail HDTV hardware?

Clearly the desire for HD content, from a provider or disc, does not match the desire for HDTV form factor.

So is HD cable/satellite a "failure" when compared to SD content? I mean, it's had a decade+ to overcome SD content and still hasn't.
You need do a reality check. TV formats take a long time to transition. Just do some searching to see how long it took for the transition from B & W to Color. A decade is a very short time.
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Old 03-20-2012, 03:40 PM   #2032  
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Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post
DEG from that link I provided above said "HDTV penetration is now at more than 74.5 million U.S. households", which is 64%, so that works.

There is a serious descrepancy in blu-ray player penetration, however. DEG says nearly 40 million homes have a blu-ray playback device. Centris says 29.7 million homes have a Blu-ray Disc player or capable consumer electronic device.
That's because the DEG counts one BD PBD as one household which we know to be false.
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Old 03-20-2012, 05:08 PM   #2033  
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Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post
That's because the DEG counts one BD PBD as one household which we know to be false.
Right. Now we know approximately how many homes have more than one BD player, or a player and a PS3, or a replacement player - 10 million.
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Old 03-20-2012, 05:19 PM   #2034  
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Old 03-20-2012, 05:50 PM   #2035  
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Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post
Right. Now we know approximately how many homes have more than one BD player, or a player and a PS3, or a replacement player - 10 million.
Possibly but not necessarily. That may be a poor assumption.

Some of it also can just be an margin of error in two different reporting agencies estimates. Or one is using a different household estimate or including Canada or using shipped versus sold numbers or using survey estimates instead of industry data.

The Centris survey IIRC ( I can't find the original data) has a smaller sample size than the NPD data set we usually see. The DEG data IIRC is based on industry sales data and IIRC adjusted by industry estimates for duplicate households. Even if the NPD was all units sold or shipped in the time period it could be using a different set of assumptions and methodology that biases it in the other direction.

Survey based information tends to undercount CE items as some consumers have difficulty in describing tech electronics in their households as well.

114,235,996 is the 2011 US Census estimate for households. The DEG or NPD or Centris could also be adding in the Canadian households in the calculation as those figures are often North American market based for consumer electronics.

40.0/114.235 = 35.0%

29.7/114.235 = 26.0%

If the NPD and Centris data are using survey numbers for identification and the DEG is using industry supplied data then its not just as simple as comparing the magnitudes of each and subtracting out.

Comparing magnitudes of different data sources is always problematic. Its the trends that match not the magnitudes.

One of the data estimates especially if its survey based could easily be 5% or 10% high and the other 5% or 10% low even if they were trying to estimate exactly the same thing.

You just cannot make that assumption here that one is counting all units and the others are counting non duplicate households, they just both could have error margins in the opposite directions.

When we get the annual NPD household survey in a couple months we will get a better idea as they have a more consistent long term methodology with a greater sample size.
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Old 03-20-2012, 05:54 PM   #2036  
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Week Ending 03/10/12




I guess OD ain't dead yet.

Obviously a nice week for Immortals and Game of Thorns.

Blu-ray being up 35.7% really pulled up the DVD+BD YoY percentage for the week .
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Old 03-20-2012, 05:59 PM   #2037  
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Updated thru week ending 3/10/12
Table of Blu-ray sales (HMM and DEG)
numbers are in (revenue) millions.
Weekly figures are from HMM (Home Media Magazine

Code:
2012 HMM    1560.55    -0.3%    1191.13    -6.2%     369.32   24.8%    23.7%    1596.1  1443.6										
Week Date      OD     OD YoY      DVD    DVD YoY       BD    BD YoY  BD Share  TBO2012 TBO2011										

10  3/10     165.27     9.5%     123.11     2.7%      42.16   35.7%    25.5%     216.0   177.1
9   3/3      150.39   -14.0%     115.29   -13.4%      35.10  -15.7%    23.3%      67.0   112.3
8   2/25     158.98    -2.2%     122.04    -7.3%      36.94   19.4%    23.2%     272.1   258.0
7   2/18     207.15    18.9%     160.38    10.4%      46.77   61.7%    22.6%      16.4    86.2
6   2/11     205.54    19.4%     151.09     3.1%      54.45  104.2%    26.5%     316.5   224.0
5   2/4      144.90    -8.6%     110.25   -16.0%      34.65   27.1%    23.9%     118.5    23.0
4   1/28     131.95   -13.6%      98.40   -20.2%      33.55   14.2%    25.4%     226.3   201.2
3   1/21     129.39    -2.4%     103.53    -4.9%      25.86    8.9%    20.0%     112.7    60.7
2   1/14     128.65    -5.1%     100.16    -7.7%      28.49    5.6%    22.1%     143.4   116.2
1   1/7      138.33    -8.0%     106.88   -11.6%      31.35    7.0%    22.7%     157.7   134.3

2011 DEG    8951.80   -13.2%    6851.80   -19.5%    2150.00   19.4%    24.0%    
2011 HMM    8604.20   -13.9%    6608.28   -20.3%    1995.92   17.7%    23.2%    9936.0 10820.9																			

Q4 DEG      3338.95   -11.0%    2464.81   -16.5%     924.14   15.5%    27.7%
Q4 HMM      3125.11   -12.4%    2280.75   -19.5%     844.36   15.1%    27.0%    3698.4  3932.2

52  12/31    174.13   -25.6%     130.29   -28.7%      43.84  -14.7%    25.2%      64.3    95.9
51  12/24    482.11   -13.1%     368.59   -16.9%     113.52    2.2%    23.5%     205.6   303.6
50  12/17    369.89   -23.4%     280.58   -26.8%      89.31  -10.1%    24.1%     360.7   635.3
49  12/10    322.48   -14.5%     243.85   -18.6%      78.63    1.5%    24.4%     624.8   535.6
48  12/3     229.49   -23.3%     173.97   -27.5%      55.52   -6.2%    24.2%     282.0   496.0
47  11/26    388.67   -12.4%     300.39   -16.5%      88.28    5.0%    22.7%     194.5   185.3
46  11/19    166.84   -14.3%     127.57   -18.0%      39.27    0.5%    23.5%      41.6   359.0
45  11/12    183.17     2.5%     128.95   -12.0%      54.22   68.3%    29.6%     422.9   251.3
44  11/5     167.53   -16.8%     117.59   -22.8%      49.94    2.0%    29.8%     335.6   414.9
43  10/29    147.15    11.2%      96.66   -11.3%      50.49  115.6%    33.6%     204.5   108.7
42  10/22    156.94     9.5%      95.94   -17.1%      61.00  120.8%    38.9%     370.0    56.0
41  10/15    152.92    -2.4%     106.50   -14.1%      46.42   42.2%    30.4%     343.3   233.0
40  10/8     183.79     9.3%     109.87    -9.4%      73.92   57.7%    40.2%     248.6   257.6

Q3 DEG      1742.79    -4.0%    1320.93   -14.7%     421.86   58.0%    24.2%
Q3 HMM      1667.09    -4.9%    1298.39   -13.9%     368.70   49.9%    22.1%    1806.3  1609.5										

39  10/1     152.58   -14.3%     109.97   -20.4%      42.61    7.1%    27.9%     352.1   382.7
38  9/24     153.60     5.0%     108.69   -12.5%      44.91  103.6%    29.2%     169.3   112.5
37  9/17     164.69    14.0%     107.37   -14.2%      57.32  197.2%    34.8%     190.8   165.2
36  9/10     128.84     0.0%     102.29   -10.5%      26.55   82.9%    20.6%     189.3    60.3
35  9/3      119.04    -9.5%     100.87   -13.7%      18.17   23.5%    15.3%      65.6    95.1
34  8/27     109.34   -13.1%      91.74   -16.6%      17.60   11.5%    16.1%      12.6    45.3
33  8/20     124.53    -4.4%     101.11   -12.8%      23.42   63.3%    18.8%     100.8    81.2
32  8/13     122.13    -1.8%      98.44    -9.5%      23.69   51.8%    19.4%     118.0   143.9
31  8/6      139.66     1.4%     111.78    -3.6%      27.88   27.9%    20.0%     189.8   133.5
30  7/30     108.78   -18.3%      89.06   -20.2%      19.72   -8.7%    18.1%      56.8   177.2
29  7/23     120.50    -1.9%      97.25    -9.4%      23.25   49.9%    19.3%      88.3    72.7
28  7/16     118.09    -4.8%      94.88   -13.5%      23.21   61.7%    19.7%     267.8    94.7
27  7/9      105.31   -16.7%      84.94   -22.7%      20.37   22.9%    19.3%       5.1    45.2										
		
Q2 DEG      1831      -15.0%    1434      -18.8%     397       9.4%    21.7%
Q2 HMM      1791.55   -12.2%    1402.94   -16.7%     388.61    9.1%    21.7%    2314.8  2422.0

26  7/2      127.11   -12.3%      96.32   -21.6%      30.79   39.4%    24.2%     102.3   181.4
25  6/25     123.25    -7.7%      98.18   -12.8%      25.07   20.1%    20.3%     205.4    85.8
24  6/18     149.89   -11.2%     114.68   -17.7%      35.21   19.5%    23.5%     208.2   142.8
23  6/11     130.81   -13.6%     103.23   -18.6%      27.58   12.3%    21.1%     305.0   152.6
22  6/4      118.16   -34.1%      96.17   -32.8%      21.99  -39.1%    18.6%      15.8   386.8
21  5/28     113.83   -16.6%      91.37   -22.9%      22.46   24.9%    19.7%     154.4    87.9
20  5/21     111.98   -15.2%      91.84   -18.9%      20.14    7.2%    18.0%      99.8   185.7
19  5/14     111.02   -23.6%      90.00   -26.8%      21.02   -6.2%    18.9%     155.6   113.6
18  5/7      122.05   -25.2%      99.74   -29.5%      22.31   -7.7%    18.3%     141.5   106.1
17  4/30     106.99   -40.6%      86.94   -39.6%      20.05  -44.5%    18.7%       0.0   120.5
16  4/23     217.30    -8.3%     171.47    -0.3%      45.83  -29.4%    21.1%     187.5   841.3
15  4/16     184.50    48.7%     134.40    24.8%      50.10  205.3%    27.2%     314.8     8.1
14  4/9      174.66    21.6%     128.60     5.9%      46.06  107.5%    26.5%     424.5     9.4
										
Q1 DEG      2068      -20.0%    1661      -25.0%     407      10.0%    19.7%		
Q1 HMM      2020.45   -23.2%    1626.20   -28.4%     394.25    9.4%    19.5%    2116.5  2857.2

13  4/2      192.11   -36.0%     144.16   -44.6%      47.95   20.1%    25.0%     300.9   461.1
12  3/26     135.54   -49.8%     110.21   -50.9%      25.33  -44.1%    18.7%     218.0   335.6
11  3/19     138.72   -46.5%     112.58   -49.6%      26.14  -27.1%    18.8%     154.2   534.3
10  3/12     146.96   -24.4%     116.11   -30.8%      30.85   16.5%    21.0%     177.0   247.2
9   3/5      174.59    -7.2%     132.93   -15.4%      41.66   34.1%    23.9%     112.3   258.8
8   2/26     160.96     4.5%     130.35    -2.5%      30.61   50.7%    19.0%     258.0    74.9
7   2/19     172.68    -8.1%     143.99   -12.7%      28.69   25.0%    16.6%      86.2    80.1
6   2/12     172.00   -19.4%     145.34   -23.1%      26.66    8.9%    15.5%     224.0   211.0
5   2/5      158.26   -16.7%     131.08   -20.8%      27.18   11.1%    17.2%      23.0   114.6
4   1/29     151.21   -14.6%     122.05   -20.9%      29.16   27.6%    19.3%     201.2   151.6
3   1/22     131.62   -16.3%     107.98   -21.0%      23.64   14.8%    18.0%      60.7    61.0
2   1/15     135.49   -17.3%     108.51   -23.9%      26.98   27.0%    19.9%     143.3   137.8
1   1/8      150.31   -14.1%     120.91   -19.5%      29.40   18.6%    19.6%     157.7   189.2

OD = optical disc (DVD + Blu-ray)
YoY = year over year percentage change
TBO = total box office
BD = Blu-ray
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Old 03-20-2012, 06:16 PM   #2038  
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The OD YoY sellthough number is hanging tough around break even. That closed a full percentage point from last week.

If that can sustain itself through the end of the 1Q 2011 that will probably be a big press release propaganda point for the DEG especially when they include a probably rise for digital streaming and kiosk rentals.
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Old 03-20-2012, 06:24 PM   #2039  
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Very interesting comparison between DVD and BD YoY. This year DVD is down 6.2% while Blu-ray is up 24.8%. Last year at this time (after 10 weeks), DVD was down 19.4% while Blu-ray was up 23.3%.

So the difference this year is DVD. It is doing much, much better this year compared to last, while Blu-ray is doing about the same. Surprising that Blu-ray's YoY is so modest considering box office is up 10.6%.

As for this last week, Blu-ray had genre-friendly Immortals and about $40 in BO power over last year, plus a bonus non-box office TV show Game of Thrones which placed #2 on the BD charts and did a 57% share. 35.7% YoY seems rather modest with that arsenal. All of last year's box office power was in comedy or drama.
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Old 03-20-2012, 06:50 PM   #2040  
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This is already the 3rd week this year that DVD has been positive YoY, while there were only 2 such weeks all of last year (shown below). Notice what the BD YoY was in those 5 weeks, all of them over 61%, with the exception of this week, which was 35.7%.

Code:
Week Date      OD     OD YoY      DVD    DVD YoY       BD    BD YoY  BD Share  TBO2012 TBO2011
2012:
10  3/10     165.27     9.5%     123.11     2.7%      42.16   35.7%    25.5%     216.0   177.1
7   2/18     207.15    18.9%     160.38    10.4%      46.77   61.7%    22.6%      16.4    86.2
6   2/11     205.54    19.4%     151.09     3.1%      54.45  104.2%    26.5%     316.5   224.0

2011:													2011:
15  4/16     184.50    48.7%     134.40    24.8%      50.10  205.3%    27.2%     314.8     8.1
14  4/9      174.66    21.6%     128.60     5.9%      46.06  107.5%    26.5%     424.5     9.4
.
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