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Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

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Old 03-14-2012, 08:54 AM   #1966  
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I am actually quite shocked such a sig is allowed.

It is nothing more than a thinly veiled personal attack.

Just one more step in your ongoing smear campaign against an individual. Disgraceful really. Talk about character...
I'm sure you are just overjoyed with Kostys sig though uh? Apparently we who disagree with him are enemies and pigs. But that's ok?
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Old 03-14-2012, 09:24 AM   #1967  
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Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post
Except Puss in Boots (week 2) this year had the same TBO as Megamind, did it not? And Puss in Boots was released the Friday prior to the 3/4 week comparison?

Which would leave Bambi from last year competing with Hugo this year, which won 5 (and was nominated for a total of 11) academy awards for sound and cinematography that same week, and was watched by 39 million people in the U.S.

And then there is the next four weeks:

47.95 M
46.06 M
50.10 M
45.83 M
Right, Puss 'n Boots and Megamind cancel each other out. The box office power is fairly similar (last year was a little higher), so that leaves Bambi compared with nothing last year basically. A fair guess is that Bambi did $10 million in sales, so if you wipe that out from last year, Blu-ray would be up about 12% instead of down 14.3%.

As for the YTD, it's interesting in that DVD is down only 7.1% for the 10 weeks so far, and yet Blu-ray is up only 23.5%. DVD last year was down 20.3% so that a big improvement. On the other hand, Blu-ray is up only a few percent from last year, surprising because box office is up 9% so far this year vs. being down 8.2% last year. It appears that DVD is responding healthily to the BO improvement, but Blu-ray is doing similar YoY under the same improved stimulus. Odd.

Of course, Twilight has helped DVD, but it has also helped Blu-ray in the same proportion as the overall market share (Twilight is doing around 25% BD share vs. 23.4% BD share overall).

And speaking of overall market share, it was 19.5% for Q1 2011, and now it's still only 23.4%?! Even for Blu-ray, its normally slow market share growth, which averages around 6.5% per year, has slowed down even more to just under 4%. Not a very encouraging sign for BD adoption. I'm sure the studios are not pleased, given all their efforts at encouraging adoption through the use of combo packs on virtually every major new release (some without BD-only alternatives), DVD delays on some titles, and reducing DVD SKUs to bare bones when they do come out. Anyone who is pleased with Blu-ray's performance up to now must have very low expectations, as only a true pessimist could.
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Old 03-14-2012, 09:36 AM   #1968  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
The next three weeks coming up are easier, the following four weeks are tougher, but then after that the next twenty two weeks over the rest of 2Q and most of the 3Q are pretty modest in Blu-ray's 2010 performance so whatever we see by the end of April for Blu-ray YoY performance will not fall much over the summer until we get to the September summer tent pole releases again.

By the time we get to those this year we have the Easter releases and Mission Impossible and other titles to compete with them. But that's really the last 2010 stretch that's really competitive in the comparisons until September.
Q2 and most of Q3 is the slow season, so of course the 2011 figures are going to be modest. But that doesn't make it any easier this year unless OD breaks out of that mold which has existed for many years. In fact, it could be a tougher comparison challenge because the box office wasn't down much in those two quarters as it was in Q1. Unlike DVD, Blu-ray really hasn't taken advantage of the BO improvement, up only 23.5%. In Q2-3 there might not be a BD improvement to take advantage of at all. What's your sense of the release forcast? Do you see major releases coming out this summer?
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Old 03-14-2012, 10:29 AM   #1969  
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I think that the upcoming releases in 2Q and 3Q 2012 look a bit more favorable this year compared to last year. But we will get a better sense of that pretty soon.

What will become clearer though is the YoY average after we get past April as there is nothing between the end of April and mid September in the 2011 weekly performance to really drag the cumulative YoY stats down so what we have then will tend to stay where it is or trend upward as most 2012 weeks should stay above $20 M.
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Old 03-14-2012, 10:33 AM   #1970  
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A lot of the releases and box office strength so far in 2012 has been more DVD friendly titles, not only with the Twilight Saga movie which dominated the period but also with some DTV and niche movies like Courageous and other dramas.

It will be interesting to see how things work out when the more Blu-ray friendly genres and action adventure movies show up. Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol will be interesting to see.
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Old 03-14-2012, 10:42 AM   #1971  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
A lot of the releases and box office strength so far in 2012 has been more DVD friendly titles, not only with the Twilight Saga movie which dominated the period but also with some DTV and niche movies like Courageous and other dramas.
Last year was no different. The only Blu-ray friendly (action) movies released in weeks 1-10 that did over $1 million in BO was Machete ($26 million) and Faster ($23.1 million). Looks like apples-apples to me...
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Old 03-14-2012, 02:34 PM   #1972  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Last year was no different. The only Blu-ray friendly (action) movies released in weeks 1-10 that did over $1 million in BO was Machete ($26 million) and Faster ($23.1 million). Looks like apples-apples to me...
Lots of December 4Q 2010 carryover in the 1Q 2011 YoY stats that did not happen in January 2012 this year as the December 4Q 2011 releases were less powerful.

Plus I also see Red and Death Race 2 last year along with the less favorable Blu-ray horror genre Paranormal Activity 2 and Saw the Final Chapter.

The DVD side is looking better this year in the YoY stats from titles like Treasure Buddies and Courageous as well as the Twilight Saga stuff.

But as we said all along its really too early to tell much.

The real difference in the YoY trending this year is that there will not be an Avatar or Twilight Saga movie in last years comparisons that will drive down the YoY metric this year to a new low as the upcoming comparison weeks in April are good but not that high as those blockbusters. Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol and the Easter releases should hold there own or at least will not be that blown out as Avatar and Twilight: New Moon did to last years statistics.

Where we end up in April is likely to stay at that level or increase even higher all the way until September then its up to how the summer releases and new to Blu-ray tentpoles like Titanic and the Indiana Jones Blu-ray sets perform.



Blu-ray and OD YoY Cumulative Revenue Trends Week Ending 03/03/12







Last edited by Kosty; 03-14-2012 at 02:50 PM..
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Old 03-14-2012, 02:56 PM   #1973  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Q2 and most of Q3 is the slow season, so of course the 2011 figures are going to be modest. But that doesn't make it any easier this year unless OD breaks out of that mold which has existed for many years. In fact, it could be a tougher comparison challenge because the box office wasn't down much in those two quarters as it was in Q1. Unlike DVD, Blu-ray really hasn't taken advantage of the BO improvement, up only 23.5%. In Q2-3 there might not be a BD improvement to take advantage of at all. What's your sense of the release forcast? Do you see major releases coming out this summer?
I think what is coming up and is in the theaters now is stronger than what we saw released last year in Q2 2011 and Q3 2011. Sherlock Holmes and a lot of unscheduled titles look pretty good in Blu-ray type genres. Immortals might do well in this weeks new stats.

We shall see how it performs on home video and on Blu-ray soon enough.



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Old 03-14-2012, 07:52 PM   #1974  
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In an early announcement to retailers, Warner Brothers is set to release 'Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows' on Blu-ray on June 12.
http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/sh...r_Blu-ray/9006

That's around these releases with week endings from last year.

06/18/11 Battle: Los Angeles
06/11/11 True Grit
06/04/11 True Blood: Third Season


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Old 03-14-2012, 09:30 PM   #1975  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
A lot of those may not be applicable to an extra version in the set, for example the MPEG DTS or Dolby if its already being used on the Blu-ray version.

The phrase " pennies" as I said above in general terms would makes sense in relative sense as a phrase in comparison to the "dollars" more that a BD+DVD+UV combo sells for at typical retail pricing. I started off the conversation here by saying that order of magnitude "is $0.50 or less". The point being its a heck a lot less than the higher retail price point a BD+DVD combo commands so its a more profitable higher margin sku.

But where did I say it cost way less than 15 cents anyway? I think I only stated that it can possibly be only an extra 15 cents to add an extra DVD 9 for a commercial DVD run of 10,000 units not an initial DVD Disc for the initial production run? Perhaps that did not include some royalties which is a possibility.

But in any case the greater point was that we obviously know that it costs the studio far less than the $0.48 cents that Pacific Disc is quoting for 50,000 units including royalties (see the chart below) when the studios are doing 10 to 100 times the volumes for their BD+DVD combo runs producing millions of units, not thousands.

Plus UltraViolet Discs or Digital Copies would not have all those royalty fees in any case as well. If its dropping for that 3rd party replicator $0.02 cents for every 20,000 units at the 50,000 unit break it would be a lot less in volumes of millions of units in a studio title replication run. Common sense applies.

The central issue remains that a BD+DVD combo selling for $5-$10 over a DVD version is a heck of a lot higher margin even when including an extra DVD even if it costs the full price of 3rd party replication which we absolutely know the studios are not paying because of their existing replicator relationships and the volumes of discs that they use and buy for a mainstream studio release which is in the millions not just tens of thousands.

Optical Discs are not replicated using an "endless mold." Depending on the quantity, there will be Grandmother, Mother and Daughter Glass Master Stampers. They wear out relativelity quickly and have to be replaced which affects the price of the discs.
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Old 03-15-2012, 05:46 AM   #1976  
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Week Ending 03/11/12

58.82% Immortals
56.73% Game of Thrones: The Complete First Season
28.86% Footloose
28.23% Jack and Jill
29.19% Puss in Boots

38.25% Blu-ray Top 20 Sellers Unit Marketshare




Quote:
'Immortals' Lives Atop Sales; 'Jack and Jill' Tops Rentals


14 Mar, 2012
By: Thomas K. Arnold


Immortals

The approaching spring break, and a promise of hordes of out-of-school disc buyers, prompted the studios to release several high-profile Blu-ray Discs and DVDs March 6, so that the top four spots on the Nielsen VideoScan sales charts for the week ended March 11 all went to new releases.

Debuting at No. 1 on both First Alert, which tracks overall sales, and the dedicated Blu-ray Disc chart was 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment’s Immortals, an actioner that grossed $83.5 million in U.S. theaters during its fall 2011 theatrical run.

Taking the No. 2 spot, also on both charts, was the first season set of HBO’s acclaimed “Game of Thrones,” a medieval fantasy series based on author George R. R. Martin's bestselling “A Song of Ice and Fire” fantasy books.

Third place, again on both charts, went to the remake of the dance movie Footloose, from Paramount, which earned $51.8 million in U.S. theaters.

The fourth spot on the overall sales chart went to Sony Pictures’ Jack and Jill, an Adam Sandler comedy that earned $74.2 million in U.S. theaters. Paramount’s Hugo, the previous week’s top Blu-ray Disc seller, took the No. 4 spot on the Blu-ray Disc chart, while Jack and Jill finished fifth. On First Alert, Hugo slipped to No. 7 after debuting at No. 2 the prior week.


Jack and Jill claimed victory among rental consumers, bowing at No. 1 on Home Media Magazine’s weekly video rental chart, with Footloose debuting at No. 2. Hugo, the previous week’s top rental, slipped to No. 3 on the rental chart.



Related Links :
Top 20 Sellers for the Week Ended 03/11/12

Top 20 Rentals for the Week Ended 03/11/12

Top 20 Selling Blu-ray Discs for the Week Ended 03/11/12

Top 20 Blu-ray Market Share for the Week Ended 03/11/12
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Old 03-15-2012, 05:47 AM   #1977  
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Week Ending 03/11/12

58.82% Immortals
56.73% Game of Thrones: The Complete First Season
45.97% Hugo
28.86% Footloose
28.23% Jack and Jill
29.19% Puss in Boots

38.25% Blu-ray Top 20 Sellers Unit Marketshare




Quote:
'Immortals' Lives Atop Sales; 'Jack and Jill' Tops Rentals


14 Mar, 2012
By: Thomas K. Arnold


Immortals

The approaching spring break, and a promise of hordes of out-of-school disc buyers, prompted the studios to release several high-profile Blu-ray Discs and DVDs March 6, so that the top four spots on the Nielsen VideoScan sales charts for the week ended March 11 all went to new releases.

Debuting at No. 1 on both First Alert, which tracks overall sales, and the dedicated Blu-ray Disc chart was 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment’s Immortals, an actioner that grossed $83.5 million in U.S. theaters during its fall 2011 theatrical run.

Taking the No. 2 spot, also on both charts, was the first season set of HBO’s acclaimed “Game of Thrones,” a medieval fantasy series based on author George R. R. Martin's bestselling “A Song of Ice and Fire” fantasy books.

Third place, again on both charts, went to the remake of the dance movie Footloose, from Paramount, which earned $51.8 million in U.S. theaters.

The fourth spot on the overall sales chart went to Sony Pictures’ Jack and Jill, an Adam Sandler comedy that earned $74.2 million in U.S. theaters. Paramount’s Hugo, the previous week’s top Blu-ray Disc seller, took the No. 4 spot on the Blu-ray Disc chart, while Jack and Jill finished fifth. On First Alert, Hugo slipped to No. 7 after debuting at No. 2 the prior week.


Jack and Jill claimed victory among rental consumers, bowing at No. 1 on Home Media Magazine’s weekly video rental chart, with Footloose debuting at No. 2. Hugo, the previous week’s top rental, slipped to No. 3 on the rental chart.



Related Links :
Top 20 Sellers for the Week Ended 03/11/12

Top 20 Rentals for the Week Ended 03/11/12

Top 20 Selling Blu-ray Discs for the Week Ended 03/11/12

Top 20 Blu-ray Market Share for the Week Ended 03/11/12
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...-rentals-26683

Last edited by Kosty; 03-15-2012 at 06:12 AM..
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Old 03-15-2012, 07:39 AM   #1978  
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As always, a lot depends on volumes involved when we look at the index numbers, but Immortals and Game of Thorns were giving indications that they were both doing pretty well.

This could end up being a pretty good week just glancing at the Blu-ray portions in blue on the weekly charts.

Last year Blu-ray did $30.85 and we have been above that mark for six straight weeks now so the comparison to last year looks OK.

Last year Jackass 3D The Walking Dead were the leading titles along with week 2 of the Bambi BD+DVD combo with DVD delay release.


10 03/12/11 146.96 OD 116.11 DVD 30.85 BD 20.99% BD% 36.81% BDT20%







Quote:

Projections: 'Immortals' Looks To Take 'Throne'


12 Mar, 2012
By: John Latchem



A popular HBO show is competing with several modest theatrical performers for the top sales spot the week ending March 11.

Game of Thrones: The Complete First Season looks like it will have a strong debut week, but to top the charts it will have to overcome the likes of Fox’s Immortals ($83.5 million at the domestic box office), Sony Pictures’ Jack and Jill ($74.2 million) and Paramount’s remake of Footloose ($51.8 million).

With Immortals relegated to a 28-day kiosk embargo, Jack and Jill should top the rental chart.



Quote:
Projected Top 3 Sellers for Week Ending 3/11/2012



1 Immortals Fox New

2 Game of Thrones: The Complete First Season HBO New

3 Jack and Jill Sony Pictures New
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...e-throne-26625

Immortals will be in the week ending 3/11/12 data set.

Quote:
Approximately 50% of all first-day Immortals disc sales were of the high-def variety.

...

After just 24 hours in the market, the Immortals Blu-ray was tracking to be the best-selling disc thus far in 2012


Quote:
Fox Parties with Playboy for ‘Immortals’ Release


7 Mar, 2012
By: Chris Tribbey




LOS ANGELES — Playboy founder Hugh Hefner and his Playboy Mansion always throw good parties. Throw in a sexy blockbuster film like Immortals, and you’ve got a bash for the ages.

As much fun as 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment’s March 6 event was, the studio could have held an Immortals Blu-ray Disc release party in some random back alley. Fox would have still enjoyed the same launch-day success it had with this entertaining epic.

“Fox is the greatest partner to deliver [Immortals] into homes,” said Craig Flores, executive producer of the film, which pulled in more than $217 million at the worldwide box office. “I mean, look at this release party. Nobody needs to tell Fox what to do when it comes to promotion, or how to get home entertainment into the home.”

After just 24 hours in the market, the Immortals Blu-ray was tracking to be the best-selling disc thus far in 2012, Fox representatives said.

Approximately 50% of all first-day Immortals disc sales were of the high-def variety. That’s a far cry from a year ago, when new Blu-ray releases from the studio garnered less than 20% of the disc pie. It’s excellent news for Fox, which has been advertising Immortals as the first “must-own” Blu-ray of the year.


Fox released three disc versions of Immortals: DVD ($29.98), a Blu-ray combo with digital copy ($39.99), and a 3D Blu-ray combo with digital copy ($49.99). If action-adventure fans have 3D at home, there’s no question which version they should choose, Flores said.

“We had a huge [theatrical] release in 3D, so I think fans appreciate it that way,” he said. “People who have 3D in the home, all the more power [to them].”

Fox brought out plenty of talent for the event, though it was actor Bruce Boxleitner (Tron, Tron: Legacy) who extolled the virtues of 3D most succinctly.

“We’re expanding the way we tell stories now,” he said. “I know there’s a lot of speculation about what business [3D] will do, but I will tell you it’s spot on.” 3D receipts accounted for roughly two-thirds of the film’s opening weekend box office in November, according to BoxOfficeMojo.com.

On the Blu-ray versions, Fox includes more than an hour of bonus features, including an alternate opening, two alternate endings, a pair of behind-the-scenes featurettes, a graphic novel and deleted scenes.

For Immortals actor Corey Sevier (Apollo), the first choice on what to watch after the movie is an easy one.

“I’m probably going to look for deleted scenes,” he laughed. “Because I hope I’m going to show up in a few of those. The alternate ending, opening. It’s going to be exciting.”


http://www.homemediamagazine.com/blu...-release-26613
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Old 03-15-2012, 08:51 AM   #1979  
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The order of magnitude for the scaling for the new release Blu-ray and DVD sales can maybe be judged by looking at the normal attrition from last weeks leading titles Hugo and Puss and Boots to this new week.



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Old 03-16-2012, 07:29 AM   #1980  
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Complete Historical Trend Slide Set as online PDF Week Ending 03/03/12

Complete Nielsen Videoscan Weekly Sales Report Slide Set as online PDF Weeks 02/25/12 - 03/11/12/



Example screenshots of the interface are below. Use the above links to view.

You can also save individual slides or cut and paste the links to insert in your own posts.







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