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Old 03-05-2012, 11:36 AM   #1831
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The week 15 was just after the Tangled Tron Legacy and harry Potter 7.1 releases. But Harry Potter 7.1 was a Friday release IIRC and had a lot of carryover into the following week as well but that is when the statistics the next week ran into Avatar in 2Q 2010 for Earth Day.
Tangled and Tron Legacy did very well on Blu-ray, and if you combine the BD sales of those two titles with HP 7.1, then that would more than offset Avatar's BD sales.

Avatar sold well on BD, but at $745 million box office power, the BD revenue to box office ratio was not any higher than normal. In fact, the three titles above outsold it with nearly $100 million less combined BO power.
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Old 03-05-2012, 12:04 PM   #1832
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2011 BD catalog was very strong compared to 2010, even without Star Wars. But with Star Wars that was a bonus $100 million extra in revenues for last year, easily. If you pull that off the top of BD's week 45 cumulative revenue then the YoY dives down to just under 20%.

This year catalog is down slightly, so it'll be interesting to see if as much gets released this year as last. But given the trend to farm out major studio titles to small distributors, I would bet that the major studio catalog release count will remain down, as it's down nearly 50% as it is.
Its a pretty modest time for releases for catalog titles at this time of the year. That percentage you have if with low volumes being compared and it was also coming off the first really large 4Q holiday season Blu-ray had with hardware and software sales in 4Q 2010 so there was a demand at retail for inventory and releases as Blu-ary inventory levels at retailers increased.

What's more important is how things end up later in the year from the major studios. But you cannot discount the rise in Blu-ray catalog releases from all sources either as those get exposed to consumers as well and most people have no clue on the studios or distribution details for a release.

That's also of course a different stat that the DVD Release Report has as they they categorize things differently than you do.


But as you said it will indeed be interesting to see what happens in the way of releases as the year goes along.

Titanic and Indiana Jones will be among the major new to Blu-ray titles we already know about coming up in 2012.







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Old 03-05-2012, 12:10 PM   #1833
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Tangled and Tron Legacy did very well on Blu-ray, and if you combine the BD sales of those two titles with HP 7.1, then that would more than offset Avatar's BD sales.

Avatar sold well on BD, but at $745 million box office power, the BD revenue to box office ratio was not any higher than normal. In fact, the three titles above outsold it with nearly $100 million less combined BO power.
The two Twilight movies and Alice in Wonderland were the other 2010 release that affected the statistical comparisons in a big way.

No matter how you count it up the 1Q TBO was still around -$740.7 M -25.92% at the 1Q mark and around -$847.9 M -16.06% at the 1H mark so no matter how you balance the releases the first half of last year was still very much in favor of 1H 2010.

Box office power is never a one to one relationship with home video performance and with bigger releases there of course are some degree of diminishing returns. Plus the 3D premium as well was huge with Avatar and does not translate well into home video as box office results did before.
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Old 03-05-2012, 12:12 PM   #1834
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2011 BD catalog was very strong compared to 2010, even without Star Wars. But with Star Wars that was a bonus $100 million extra in revenues for last year, easily. If you pull that off the top of BD's week 45 cumulative revenue then the YoY dives down to just under 20%.

This year catalog is down slightly, so it'll be interesting to see if as much gets released this year as last. But given the trend to farm out major studio titles to small distributors, I would bet that the major studio catalog release count will remain down, as it's down nearly 50% as it is.
Yep. The Q3 hole left by Star Wars is probably going to register for that week and impact Q3 as a whole.


I think by end of H1 we will have a pretty good idea of rough trending. The next major milestone will be the Hunger Games release. If it does well, it will reflect on strength for The Avengers and DKF in Q4. Both Avengers and DKF should do better BD share than the Hunger Games, but relative strength for BO blockbusters can be roughly gauged by Hunger Games.
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Old 03-05-2012, 12:15 PM   #1835
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Tangled and Tron Legacy did very well on Blu-ray, and if you combine the BD sales of those two titles with HP 7.1, then that would more than offset Avatar's BD sales.

Avatar sold well on BD, but at $745 million box office power, the BD revenue to box office ratio was not any higher than normal. In fact, the three titles above outsold it with nearly $100 million less combined BO power.

Yep.

And Q2 box office lead-in was flat. DVD benefited from the favorable BO strength (compared to Q1), but Blu-ray did not. At that point it was very clear to any impartial observer that BD would perform significantly worse growth than in 2010.

Granted, even I did not expect it to do only $350 million growth for the year (at that point). That was exceedingly poor growth far lower than I would have projected at that time.
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Old 03-05-2012, 12:21 PM   #1836
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Yep. The Q3 hole left by Star Wars is probably going to register for that week and impact Q3 as a whole.


I think by end of H1 we will have a pretty good idea of rough trending. The next major milestone will be the Hunger Games release. If it does well, it will reflect on strength for The Avengers and DKF in Q4. Both Avengers and DKF should do better BD share than the Hunger Games, but relative strength for BO blockbusters can be roughly gauged by Hunger Games.
I can agree pretty much with you on all of this above.

Hunger Games should be similar to Twilight Saga but with the possibility with more male demographics. That will give us a clue on how the more action adventure tentpoles will do on Blu-ray as they should do even better as you assume.

The Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol release coming up in the head to head slot with Harry Potter 7.1 in a month from now also will help gage the trends as well.

If Indiana Jones or Titanic or a combination of things comes out in the same general time as Star Wars then that will help soften that head to head matchup but Star Wars as well as LOTR EE weeks will indeed be tough comparisons as you mention as well.

Last edited by Kosty; 03-05-2012 at 12:34 PM..
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Old 03-05-2012, 12:43 PM   #1837
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Here's some charts with gaps in them I have not completed yet that show the week to week YoY trends for Blu-ray DVD and OD over 2010 and 2011. The 2011 weekly results have the TBO YoY weekly change shaded in the background in pink.

They obviously show how the BD and DVD YoY percentage performance is related to the TBO change but at a lower magnitude but also how kinda random the weekly changes are for both TBO and YoY changes from week to week,

2011 2012



2010 2011 2012





Last edited by Kosty; 03-05-2012 at 12:47 PM..
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Old 03-05-2012, 01:01 PM   #1838
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The two Twilight movies and Alice in Wonderland were the other 2010 release that affected the statistical comparisons in a big way.

No matter how you count it up the 1Q TBO was still around -$740.7 M -25.92% at the 1Q mark and around -$847.9 M -16.06% at the 1H mark so no matter how you balance the releases the first half of last year was still very much in favor of 1H 2010.

Box office power is never a one to one relationship with home video performance and with bigger releases there of course are some degree of diminishing returns. Plus the 3D premium as well was huge with Avatar and does not translate well into home video as box office results did before.
Well the whole point was that Avatar was not skewing the 2011 YoY revenue when the YoY box office difference is considered along with it. That's what we're discussing here: how Blu-ray performs given the box office lead-in.

Avatar was just an average title in that regard, lot's of sales but lots of box office baggage ($745 million) to go along with it. The ratio is normal (or close to it). An example of a skewed title would be Star Wars or some other title that over or underperforms according to the box office.
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Old 03-05-2012, 01:17 PM   #1839
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Well the whole point was that Avatar was not skewing the 2011 YoY revenue when the YoY box office difference is considered along with it. That's what we're discussing here: how Blu-ray performs given the box office lead-in.

Avatar was just an average title in that regard, lot's of sales but lots of box office baggage ($745 million) to go along with it. The ratio is normal (or close to it). An example of a skewed title would be Star Wars or some other title that over or underperforms according to the box office.
Or in the case of major catalog releases the box office not being accounted for at all (for 6 individual absolutely blockbuster titles).
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Old 03-05-2012, 01:25 PM   #1840
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I would also point out that anomalies that point to new trends are what are interesting.

For example, if Hunger Games is delayed to Q4 and BD ends Q3 up above 30% (YoY) growth, that would be a clear sign (IMO) that BD growth was on pace to outperform initial expectations for 2012 (outperform 2011 % growth).

So far I have not seen any anomalies that suggest BD will end the year outside of the ~ 12% - 18% YoY growth range.
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Old 03-05-2012, 01:33 PM   #1841
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Or in the case of major catalog releases the box office not being accounted for at all (for 6 individual absolutely blockbuster titles).
Also you have some DTV titles that still do quite well that do not count in the TBO statistics as well.

I have the following major catalog releases that acted as proxy new releases for Blu-ray last 3Q or 4Q 2011.

What others were you counting?


Star Wars Saga
The Lion King
Dumbo
Jurassic Park Trilogy

plus

Lord of the Rings EE re release on Blu-ray


Major new to Blu-ray releases were not counted in the TBO for past years either like LOTR and Back to the Future as well.

Last edited by Kosty; 03-05-2012 at 01:42 PM..
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Old 03-05-2012, 01:40 PM   #1842
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I would also point out that anomalies that point to new trends are what are interesting.

For example, if Hunger Games is delayed to Q4 and BD ends Q3 up above 30% (YoY) growth, that would be a clear sign (IMO) that BD growth was on pace to outperform initial expectations for 2012 (outperform 2011 % growth).

So far I have not seen any anomalies that suggest BD will end the year outside of the ~ 12% - 18% YoY growth range.
You don't see a current 32% YoY growth for Blu-ray as hinting at that a little bit?

j/k I think its too soon as well.

Long way until the end of 3Q 2012 comes around.

I think we will get a strong hint by the end of April this year on at least how the stats will be through the middle of September as there will not be much in the way of good 2011 weeks left that will depress them much until then between weeks 17 and 37.

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Old 03-05-2012, 02:35 PM   #1843
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You don't see a current 32% YoY growth for Blu-ray as hinting at that a little bit?

j/k I think its too soon as well.

Long way until the end of 3Q 2012 comes around.

I think we will get a strong hint by the end of April this year on at least how the stats will be through the middle of September as there will not be much in the way of good 2011 weeks left that will depress them much until then between weeks 17 and 37.
I think end of Q1 will be important, but we need more weeks not impacted by a major catalog release to normalize the numbers.


I really don't see anything yet that signals a fundamental shift from BDs box office normalized growth rate of ~22% in 2011 declining to around ~12%-18% in 2012.
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Old 03-05-2012, 02:57 PM   #1844
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I think end of Q1 will be important, but we need more weeks not impacted by a major catalog release to normalize the numbers.


I really don't see anything yet that signals a fundamental shift from BDs box office normalized growth rate of ~22% in 2011 declining to around ~12%-18% in 2012.
It will be interesting to see.

If Blu-ray's growth rate ends up increasing from the HMM 17.7% YoY EOY number or the DEG number of 19.4% YoY EOY in 2012 that would probably be seen as a positive sign for Blu-ray.


I'm a little bit confused on how we can get to 22% normalized growth for Blu-ray in 2011 again when The DEG stats ended up at 19.4% or so and the Total Box Office at the end of the year was $-884.0 M or -8.17% down from 2010. Even with those close to even TBO benchmarks we discussed above.
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Old 03-05-2012, 05:00 PM   #1845
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It will be interesting to see.

If Blu-ray's growth rate ends up increasing from the HMM 17.7% YoY EOY number or the DEG number of 19.4% YoY EOY in 2012 that would probably be seen as a positive sign for Blu-ray.


I'm a little bit confused on how we can get to 22% normalized growth for Blu-ray in 2011 again when The DEG stats ended up at 19.4% or so and the Total Box Office at the end of the year was $-884.0 M or -8.17% down from 2010. Even with those close to even TBO benchmarks we discussed above.
Blu-ray posting higher growth in 2012 than in 2011 (no matter the BO) would indeed be seen as a positive sign.

I don't know of any precedence for that in a Home Video format.
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