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Old 03-05-2012, 09:23 AM   #1816  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
I am clearly stating now that it was not just 1H 2011 that affected the statistics downward in 2011, late 4Q 2011 did so as well. I perfectly understand that and pointed it out then and once again do so right now. That's not the same as saying that 1Q 2011 drove the entire year of comparison last year as no matter what good or bad happened latter in the year which it did, the legacy of the 1Q TBO deficit still affected things the entire year.
Of course you are stating that now. You got caught in your own contradictions.


Again, a refresher from the just a few days ago.

I stated:

Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
It is a certainty that Blu-ray was developed and supported as it was seen as a way to stimulate OD sell through.

It has failed miserably in that regard. Last year alone it barely made up for 17% of DVDs decline. It grew a paltry $350 million last year despite receiving total studio support in new releases (including BD sell through only windows) and receiving arguably the most sought after catalog series in Home Video. It is almost unfathomably bad performance for it to only grow $350 million in light of the studio support it received, and with the large amount of DVD based it has to cannibalize from.
To which you responded:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Its not that the box office strength of releases being down -26% in the first quarter of last year or Avatar being in the 2Q comparisons from 2010 to 2011 had anything to do with that Year or Year growth rate....
Of course, in August of last year you were downplaying H1 results. Because in that case you were in "projection" spin mode. Now you have to highlight it now that you are in "excuse" spin mode.

But again, that is the point. Sincere people use data to update their viewpoint. Just like I modified my view of BD growth after seeing the trends set in H1.

You do not. You make excuses for Blu-ray. Or you make high projections for Blu-ray. Or you explain away poor Blu-ray performance. And that is all you do. You have never, ever once looked at a piece of Blu-ray data and stated that it might even be seen as negative to the prognosis of Blu-ray growth. And I don't think you are even capable of posting something like that.


Indeed, this all started from me pointing out the undeniable fact that Blu-ray had a poor 2011. Of course, that does not fit the story you are trying to sell, so you had to dispute it even if you contradicted yourself.

And now we have come full circle where I can once again state: Blu-ray had incredibly bad performance in 2011, with a measly $350 million revenue gain and barely covering 17% of DVD attrition.
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Old 03-05-2012, 09:39 AM   #1817  
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Once again that year to year growth revenue number and growth percentage for Blu-ray from 2010 to 2011 was heavily impacted by the strength of the releases between the two years. DVD was affected as well as Blu-ray even more so.

Better releases this year in comparison to 2011 will help the comparisons in a similar manner that the 1H2011 and late 4Q 2011 release comparisons last year did not.

In the periods where the release comparisons were more favorable last year its undeniable that Blu-ray did better. 3Q was even up 58% up YoY for Blu-ray in the DEG stats (49.9% YoY for Blu-ray in the HMM stats).

If you want to categorize Blu-ray sales last year as anything you want you are free to do so but its obvious that the top line number there for Blu-ray's growth was affected by the strength of releases in the comparison that included Avatar and two Twilight Saga movies in the 2010 comparison period that had no analog in the 2011 releases. You can ignore that all you want but other people understand the effect that releases had on the performance of home video last year.
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Old 03-05-2012, 09:44 AM   #1818  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound
Of course, in August of last year you were downplaying H1 results. Because in that case you were in "projection" spin mode. Now you have to highlight it now that you are in "excuse" spin mode.
Humor me.

How in the heck can you possibly assert that I was downplaying the 1H 2011 results when Blu-ray was at 10% at that point in time? I clearly noted that it was a big hole to climb out of even when I stated it would recover some by the end of the year. I clearly talked all the time on how Twilight Saga, Avatar and Alice in Wonderland all pushed the statistics downward.

Just because I commented and observed that the summer releases coming up were going to be more favorable and that the YoY results would rise from the 1H 2011 lows hardly means I was downplaying the results.

Discussing what variables affected the results is hardly "excuse mode". That would be your meme about discussing anything when the results would be less than what you assert would be good. The results are what they are and its natural for us following this stuff to talk about the obvious variables like box office strength when discussing the issues.

In the case of last year it was perfectly reasonable to assume and talk about or "project" that the results would improve with better releases, which as it turns out they certainly did. Blu-ray went from a low of 7.0% to 26.7% a +19.7% improvement between week 22 and week 45 before it fell back again in the HMM stats. At that high point 26.7% HMM stats would have been equal to a few points higher in the DEG stats. It was easy to be right about that projection that better 3Q and early 4Q releases would raise the metrics up from their 1Q and 2Q lows.

What I did not see that well was that the numbers would fall back down that much in the high volume 4Q period or that the December box office disparity would have that much impact as it clearly did in retrospect.

Last edited by Kosty; 03-05-2012 at 09:55 AM..
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Old 03-05-2012, 09:49 AM   #1819  
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Last year, from week 35 (end of August) to end of year, box office lead-in went from - 13.5% to -8.2%

Quote:
Originally Posted by KOSTY - 8/31/2011
Blu-ray will certainly do that with unit volume growth and if we get to 15-20% YoY cumulative YTD growth by the end of the 3Q that 40% benchmark for Blu-ray revenue growth is within reach by the end of the year taking product mix changes into the calculation.
So today (rather according to The Kosty of today), box office is to blame for weakness at the end of 2011. Despite Kosty predicting BD YoY growth to be around 40%... and box office lead-in being favorable from the time he made that prediction.

Kosty of August 2011 believes that BD underperformed significantly (18% YoY growth vs 40% YoY growth) despite an INCREASE of box office lead-in during that reported period.

Kosty of today needs to vehemently disagree with Kosty of August 2011 because it cannot be spun into a Blu-ray positive.
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Old 03-05-2012, 09:49 AM   #1820  
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Reposting this table of cumulative YoY BD revenue and box office because I notice there was another week that the YoY box office was down less than 1%. It occurred on week 15, a mere two weeks after Q1 was over.

Cumulative YoY BD and box office in 2011. Please note the percentages aren't for that particular week (except for week 1 of course), but rather the cumulative average from week 1 up to that point in each week. Blu-ray YoY was up 22.9% at that point.

Also there was another week earlier (week 9) that box office was down 1.0% with Blu-ray up 24.1%.

Week 4 had BO up 4.3% with BD up 22%, but that's too early in the year to associate any significance on the correlation between box office lead-in and BLu-ray revenue. But the 3 weeks with the BO lead-in within one percent of parity, Blu-ray was in the mid to upper 20% range.

Code:
Week	BD YoY	Cum BO
52	17.7%	-8.2%
51	18.7%	-8.0%
50	19.9%	-7.2%
49	22.0%	-4.9%
48	23.2%	-6.2%
47	24.5%	-4.1%
46	25.9%	-4.3%
45	26.7%	-0.6%
44	25.5%	-2.8%
43	26.6%	-1.9%
42	24.6%	-3.2%
41	22.1%	-7.5%
40	21.4%	-9.2%

39	19.7%	-9.5%
38	20.2%	-9.5%
37	18.2%	-10.6%
36	14.2%	-11.3%
35	13.1%	-13.5%
34	12.9%	-13.2%
33	12.9%	-12.8%
32	12.1%	-13.3%
31	11.3%	-13.2%
30	10.8%	-14.5%
29	11.4%	-12.7%
28	10.6%	-13.2%
27	9.6%	-16.7%

26	9.3%	-16.1%
25	8.3%	-15.1%
24	8.0%	-17.7%
23	7.4%	-19.6%
22	7.2%	-23.5%
21	10.1%	-17.0%
20	9.6%	-18.9%
19	9.7%	-17.6%
18	10.4%	-19.2%
17	11.3%	-20.7%
16	15.6%	-18.1%
15	22.9%	-0.7%
14	15.1%	-11.4%

13	9.4%	-25.9%
12	8.1%	-24.2%
11	16.7%	-22.5%
10	23.2%	-5.4%
9	24.1%	-1.0%
8	22.4%	13.1%
7	18.8%	-5.2%
6	17.8%	-6.4%
5	19.7%	-10.4%
4	22.0%	4.3%
3	20.1%	-6.8%
2	22.5%	-8.0%
1	18.6%	-16.6%

Last edited by bruceames; 03-05-2012 at 09:59 AM..
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Old 03-05-2012, 09:53 AM   #1821  
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The Kosty today:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Humor me.

How in the heck can you possibly assert that I was downplaying the 1H 2011 results when Blu-ray was at 10% at that point in time?
The Kosty of August 2011:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty - 8/31/2011
The 1H comparisons are history. They will not matter much as time rolls along in any case as they will be superseded by the end of the year statistics for anyone looking at this stuff.

If you want to wallow in the mud and continue to live in the past that's certainly up to you. But its not unreasonable for rational people having a discussion here or looking at the future possibilities in the 4Q to see that Avatar was an unusual event and the total box office disparity this year compared to last year has affected the year to year comparisons.

You are the one spinning when you ignore the obvious that Avatar has had a major effect on the YoY comparisons.

Who cares that the 1H comparison was 10%? That was two months ago and it will not matter at the end of the year or in the future what that interim number was.

If its not predictive of the 4Q numbers because its distorted because of the box office disparity of having Twilight: New Moon, Avatar and Alice in Wonderland in the 2010 data without matching analogs in 2011 and its not predictive of the future and 4Q its a momentary historical benchmark, nothing more.

The only effect it will have is when the 3Q and 4Q and final yearly numbers come in for Blu-ray and home entertainment revenues in total the low 1Q and 2Q numbers will only make the 3Q and 4Q numbers look better in comparison.
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Old 03-05-2012, 10:05 AM   #1822  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Reposting this table of cumulative YoY BD revenue and box office because I notice there was another week that the YoY box office was down less than 1%. It occurred on week 15, a mere two weeks after Q1 was over.

Cumulative YoY BD and box office in 2011. Please note the percentages aren't for that particular week (except for week 1 of course), but rather the cumulative average from week 1 up to that point in each week. Blu-ray YoY was up 22.9% at that point.

Also there was another week earlier (week 9) that box office was down 1.0% with Blu-ray up 24.1%.

Week 4 had BO up 4.3% with BD up 22%, but that's too early in the year to associate any significance on the correlation between box office lead-in and BLu-ray revenue. But the 3 weeks with the BO lead-in within one percent of parity, Blu-ray was in the mid to upper 20% range.

Code:
Week	BD YoY	Cum BO
52	17.7%	-8.2%
51	18.7%	-8.0%
50	19.9%	-7.2%
49	22.0%	-4.9%
48	23.2%	-6.2%
47	24.5%	-4.1%
46	25.9%	-4.3%
45	26.7%	-0.6%
44	25.5%	-2.8%
43	26.6%	-1.9%
42	24.6%	-3.2%
41	22.1%	-7.5%
40	21.4%	-9.2%

39	19.7%	-9.5%
38	20.2%	-9.5%
37	18.2%	-10.6%
36	14.2%	-11.3%
35	13.1%	-13.5%
34	12.9%	-13.2%
33	12.9%	-12.8%
32	12.1%	-13.3%
31	11.3%	-13.2%
30	10.8%	-14.5%
29	11.4%	-12.7%
28	10.6%	-13.2%
27	9.6%	-16.7%

26	9.3%	-16.1%
25	8.3%	-15.1%
24	8.0%	-17.7%
23	7.4%	-19.6%
22	7.2%	-23.5%
21	10.1%	-17.0%
20	9.6%	-18.9%
19	9.7%	-17.6%
18	10.4%	-19.2%
17	11.3%	-20.7%
16	15.6%	-18.1%
15	22.9%	-0.7%
14	15.1%	-11.4%

13	9.4%	-25.9%
12	8.1%	-24.2%
11	16.7%	-22.5%
10	23.2%	-5.4%
9	24.1%	-1.0%
8	22.4%	13.1%
7	18.8%	-5.2%
6	17.8%	-6.4%
5	19.7%	-10.4%
4	22.0%	4.3%
3	20.1%	-6.8%
2	22.5%	-8.0%
1	18.6%	-16.6%
That ~22% range is probably just about right for BD overall performance in 2011 outside of box office. That also includes the positive impact from catalog (notably the Star Wars saga) and the BD promotional work including BD only sell through windows and BD combo packages with minor (or even negative) cost comparisons to the DVD only SKU.

I would consider that poor performance, particularly compared to year prior performance with a larger installed base and the (already mentioned) highly favorable promotional assistance BD received.
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Old 03-05-2012, 10:05 AM   #1823  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
Last year, from week 35 (end of August) to end of year, box office lead-in went from - 13.5% to -8.2%



So today (rather according to The Kosty of today), box office is to blame for weakness at the end of 2011. Despite Kosty predicting BD YoY growth to be around 40%... and box office lead-in being favorable from the time he made that prediction.

Kosty of August 2011 believes that BD underperformed significantly (18% YoY growth vs 40% YoY growth) despite an INCREASE of box office lead-in during that reported period.


Kosty of today needs to vehemently disagree with Kosty of August 2011 because it cannot be spun into a Blu-ray positive.
Where did I "predict" 40% growth again? I seem to remember that I said it was still possible in August 2011 not that I was predicting anything.


Blu-ray certainly did not under perform for the 3Q where the TBO comparison was up 12%, Blu-ray was up 58% YTY in that period.

The strength of releases matter both good and bad then and now.

Blu-ray also saw a series of weeks with these YoY stats that obviously showed the positive impact of the better TBO and strength of releases in that period as well:

Code:
 68.3%
  2.0%
115.6% 
120.8%
 42.2%
 57.7%
 58.0%
 49.9%
  7.1%
103.6%
197.2%








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Old 03-05-2012, 10:11 AM   #1824  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Reposting this table of cumulative YoY BD revenue and box office because I notice there was another week that the YoY box office was down less than 1%. It occurred on week 15, a mere two weeks after Q1 was over.

Cumulative YoY BD and box office in 2011. Please note the percentages aren't for that particular week (except for week 1 of course), but rather the cumulative average from week 1 up to that point in each week. Blu-ray YoY was up 22.9% at that point.

Also there was another week earlier (week 9) that box office was down 1.0% with Blu-ray up 24.1%.

Week 4 had BO up 4.3% with BD up 22%, but that's too early in the year to associate any significance on the correlation between box office lead-in and BLu-ray revenue. But the 3 weeks with the BO lead-in within one percent of parity, Blu-ray was in the mid to upper 20% range.

Spoiler:
Code:
Week	BD YoY	Cum BO
52	17.7%	-8.2%
51	18.7%	-8.0%
50	19.9%	-7.2%
49	22.0%	-4.9%
48	23.2%	-6.2%
47	24.5%	-4.1%
46	25.9%	-4.3%
45	26.7%	-0.6%
44	25.5%	-2.8%
43	26.6%	-1.9%
42	24.6%	-3.2%
41	22.1%	-7.5%
40	21.4%	-9.2%

39	19.7%	-9.5%
38	20.2%	-9.5%
37	18.2%	-10.6%
36	14.2%	-11.3%
35	13.1%	-13.5%
34	12.9%	-13.2%
33	12.9%	-12.8%
32	12.1%	-13.3%
31	11.3%	-13.2%
30	10.8%	-14.5%
29	11.4%	-12.7%
28	10.6%	-13.2%
27	9.6%	-16.7%

26	9.3%	-16.1%
25	8.3%	-15.1%
24	8.0%	-17.7%
23	7.4%	-19.6%
22	7.2%	-23.5%
21	10.1%	-17.0%
20	9.6%	-18.9%
19	9.7%	-17.6%
18	10.4%	-19.2%
17	11.3%	-20.7%
16	15.6%	-18.1%
15	22.9%	-0.7%
14	15.1%	-11.4%

13	9.4%	-25.9%
12	8.1%	-24.2%
11	16.7%	-22.5%
10	23.2%	-5.4%
9	24.1%	-1.0%
8	22.4%	13.1%
7	18.8%	-5.2%
6	17.8%	-6.4%
5	19.7%	-10.4%
4	22.0%	4.3%
3	20.1%	-6.8%
2	22.5%	-8.0%
1	18.6%	-16.6%
The week 15 was just after the Tangled Tron Legacy and harry Potter 7.1 releases. But Harry Potter 7.1 was a Friday release IIRC and had a lot of carryover into the following week as well but that is when the statistics the next week ran into Avatar in 2Q 2010 for Earth Day.
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Old 03-05-2012, 10:13 AM   #1825  
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The Kosty today:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Where did I "predict" 40% growth again?
The Kosty August 2011

Quote:
Originally Posted by KOSTY - 8/31/2011
Blu-ray will certainly do that with unit volume growth and if we get to 15-20% YoY cumulative YTD growth by the end of the 3Q that 40% benchmark for Blu-ray revenue growth is within reach by the end of the year taking product mix changes into the calculation.
For some perspective, Kosty's post above was in response to this. He is obviously disagreeing strongly that my predicted 25%-30% growth is far too low based off of his expectations.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound
My narrative is actual sales numbers and trends.

At this point I don't see things hitting the 40% number I thought we would see this year.


Even if Blu-ray ends the year at 25%-30% growth (and OD down 15%), your narrative is basically going to be "Look how much better it is than the sub 10% growth in H1". Indeed, the difference is you massage the impact of the numbers so that it is always sunny in Blu-ray land.

What you call doom and gloom, I call the reality of relatively low growth in light of the very large DVD market that Blu-ray is cannibalizing from. Most of the time I have been commenting here has been in the midst of single digit Blu-ray growth from a sub $2 billion yearly base. Forgive me if I do not find that impressive.
http://forums.highdefdigest.com/high...k-deg-483.html


Again, flip-flopping based on the need to either make excuses, project high BD growth or explain away current performance.
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Old 03-05-2012, 10:15 AM   #1826  
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This exchange pretty much sums up what I am stating -

The Kosty today:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Humor me.

How in the heck can you possibly assert that I was downplaying the 1H 2011 results when Blu-ray was at 10% at that point in time?
The Kosty of August 2011:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty - 8/31/2011
The 1H comparisons are history. They will not matter much as time rolls along in any case as they will be superseded by the end of the year statistics for anyone looking at this stuff.

If you want to wallow in the mud and continue to live in the past that's certainly up to you. But its not unreasonable for rational people having a discussion here or looking at the future possibilities in the 4Q to see that Avatar was an unusual event and the total box office disparity this year compared to last year has affected the year to year comparisons.

You are the one spinning when you ignore the obvious that Avatar has had a major effect on the YoY comparisons.

Who cares that the 1H comparison was 10%? That was two months ago and it will not matter at the end of the year or in the future what that interim number was.

If its not predictive of the 4Q numbers because its distorted because of the box office disparity of having Twilight: New Moon, Avatar and Alice in Wonderland in the 2010 data without matching analogs in 2011 and its not predictive of the future and 4Q its a momentary historical benchmark, nothing more.

The only effect it will have is when the 3Q and 4Q and final yearly numbers come in for Blu-ray and home entertainment revenues in total the low 1Q and 2Q numbers will only make the 3Q and 4Q numbers look better in comparison.
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Old 03-05-2012, 10:30 AM   #1827  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
This exchange pretty much sums up what I am stating -

The Kosty today:



The Kosty of August 2011:
I was right then and now.

I was not talking about the significance of the metric at the 1H 2010 mark on depressing the end result statistics for the year (obviously in the math) but I was talking about the impact on that snapshot statistic on the industry and media perceptions by the end of the year. It obviously would impact the statistics in the numbers but what I was talking about was that no one word care about the low 10% number by the end of the year except to talk about the 3Q and 2H2010 as being much better to it by comparison. Which is exactly what happened and exactly what the DEG stated in their future write ups concerning the second half of 2011 over the first half lows.

I was not downplaying the effect of that first half performance on the effects overall on the statistical numbers as we are talking about now, I was clearly talking about the impact that the 10% number at Q1 and Q2 would have in the future after the end of the year had a chance to improve on those extreme lows that were created by the -$847.9 Million TBO -16.06% TBO disparity that existed at the end of 2Q 2011. I clearly stated that the number would be used as a historical benchmark in its impact and that it would really only be used in the future as a snapshot number that had been improved upon as the year went along. Which is exactly what happened.

I was clearly not talking about it then in the context of low 1H 2010 having a statistical effect on the overall 2011 year which it obviously would do in any case as those numbers were already baked into the cake.

The only long term effect that the low 10% number had at the end of the 1Q and 2Q periods was to make the 58% 3Q and 20% end of the year number look better by comparison.

No one in the industry cares now that the number was at those lows in 1H 2010. The only reason we are discussing them now is their statistical impact on the end of the year totals, but its the 20% annual growth metric number that is remembered now.

Now as we are talking in the weeds here now on how that low point affected the numbers as the year goes along, that's another thing entirely. But the industry as a whole does not remember much what that 1H number was at all.

Now when Blu-ray probably comes at the end of this 1Q 2012 period with a YoY growth rate that;s probably going to be much better than that 10% 1Q 2011 benchmark, I'm sure the DEG will remind everyone else once again what it was a year ago so the current number at the end of the 1Q 2012 period will look even better by comparison.

I'm being perfectly consistent. What I said then is essentially what I am saying now that the early 1H 2011 impacts of those box office disparities will be moderated by better releases later in the year and the low 10% number would only serve as a comparison point later in the year. It was not like the benchmark was going to remain at that low 10% in all probability and was a symptom of the poor release comparisons.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty - 8/31/2011
The 1H comparisons are history. They will not matter much as time rolls along in any case as they will be superseded by the end of the year statistics for anyone looking at this stuff.

If you want to wallow in the mud and continue to live in the past that's certainly up to you. But its not unreasonable for rational people having a discussion here or looking at the future possibilities in the 4Q to see that Avatar was an unusual event and the total box office disparity this year compared to last year has affected the year to year comparisons.

You are the one spinning when you ignore the obvious that Avatar has had a major effect on the YoY comparisons.

Who cares that the 1H comparison was 10%? That was two months ago and it will not matter at the end of the year or in the future what that interim number was.

If its not predictive of the 4Q numbers because its distorted because of the box office disparity of having Twilight: New Moon, Avatar and Alice in Wonderland in the 2010 data without matching analogs in 2011 and its not predictive of the future and 4Q its a momentary historical benchmark, nothing more.

The only effect it will have is when the 3Q and 4Q and final yearly numbers come in for Blu-ray and home entertainment revenues in total the low 1Q and 2Q numbers will only make the 3Q and 4Q numbers look better in comparison.

Last edited by Kosty; 03-05-2012 at 11:19 AM..
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Old 03-05-2012, 11:10 AM   #1828  
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I was right then and now.

The only long term effect that the low 10% number had at the end of the 1Q and 2Q periods was to make the 58% 3Q and 20% end of the year number look better by comparison.
That is not accurate.

From the point you were is "projection" spin mode in August 2011 stating that H1 numbers did not matter, box office went from - 13.5% to -8.2%.

And the year still ended up under 20% BD sell through growth. The trends established in H1 with BD equalized growth far below 2010's pace continued. Period.


You were wrong. And you are wrong now.

2011 was a very poor year for Blu-ray growth. $350 million revenue contribution increase. Barely 17% of DVD attrition. And all that was easily predicted by H1 performance by simply accounting for the BO changes.

Well below any start of 2011 projections (even mine).

True then. True now.
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Old 03-05-2012, 11:28 AM   #1829  
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That is not accurate.

From the point you were is "projection" spin mode in August 2011 stating that H1 numbers did not matter, box office went from - 13.5% to -8.2%.

And the year still ended up under 20% BD sell through growth. The trends established in H1 with BD equalized growth far below 2010's pace continued. Period.


You were wrong. And you are wrong now.

2011 was a very poor year for Blu-ray growth. $350 million revenue contribution increase. Barely 17% of DVD attrition. And all that was easily predicted by H1 performance by simply accounting for the BO changes.

Well below any start of 2011 projections (even mine).

True then. True now.

I was certainly correct in that the 10% number was not an accurate representation of where we would end up at the end of the year because of the effect Avatar and the other stronger 1H 2010 releases had on the numbers.

My point then was that no one in the industry cared much at the end of the year that the interim number was only 10% as the second half of the year gains and the final number was the story that mattered when talking about Blu-ray's 2012 performance. The low 10% number earlier in the year only mattered to make the second half of the year look better in comparison.

We both agree that the low 1H 2011 numbers that were a result of the stronger 1H 2010 titles did continuously affect the arithmetic of the total annual statistics. There is really nothing to argue about there.
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Old 03-05-2012, 11:28 AM   #1830  
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That ~22% range is probably just about right for BD overall performance in 2011 outside of box office. That also includes the positive impact from catalog (notably the Star Wars saga) and the BD promotional work including BD only sell through windows and BD combo packages with minor (or even negative) cost comparisons to the DVD only SKU.

I would consider that poor performance, particularly compared to year prior performance with a larger installed base and the (already mentioned) highly favorable promotional assistance BD received.

2011 BD catalog was very strong compared to 2010, even without Star Wars. But with Star Wars that was a bonus $100 million extra in revenues for last year, easily. If you pull that off the top of BD's week 45 cumulative revenue then the YoY dives down to just under 20%.

This year catalog is down slightly, so it'll be interesting to see if as much gets released this year as last. But given the trend to farm out major studio titles to small distributors, I would bet that the major studio catalog release count will remain down, as it's down nearly 50% as it is.
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