High Def Forum - Your High Definition Community & High Definition Resource

Go Back   High Def Forum - Your High Definition Community & High Definition Resource >
Rules HDTV Forum Gallery LINK TO US! RSS - High Def Forum AddThis Feed Button AddThis Social Bookmark Button Groups

High Definition Media A place to discuss BD and UHD Content from physical and digital media

Like Tree255Likes

Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

Reply
AddThis Social Bookmark Button
 
Thread Tools
Old 11-15-2011, 05:22 AM   #166  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 
mikemorel's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 884
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
I found this data on DVD player penetration at EOY 2002 interesting.
DEG CEA data says 40 million homes.Their table adds up to 54 million players (they said more than 10 million homes had more than one player).

However, Digital Bits CEA data adds up to 43 million players. Yet it is supposedly apples to apples CEA numbers.





Quote:
So by years end, Blu-ray players will have close to the same level of penetration as DVD players did after 5 1/2 years in their respective lifecycles.
I was told that DEG numbers for 2011 assumed one blu-ray player per home, regardless of reality. Piper Jaffray report on blu-ray player quarterly declines is starting to raise a red flag on DEG obfuscation of player sales numbers...

Last edited by mikemorel; 11-15-2011 at 05:26 AM..
mikemorel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2011, 09:41 AM   #167  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 

Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,749
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
You meant for OD, right? I don't think BD itself is going to do much more than $80 next week.
I meant BD.

I am giving BD the benefit of the doubt with the biggest release title of the year.

If BD does less than $105 million for HP week, the average for the last 7 weeks of the year goes up with no more major releases ($200+ million) for the rest of the year. Including comparison weeks in December last year where there were multiple $200+ million releases.
PSound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2011, 10:10 AM   #168  
Super Moderator
Thread Starter
 
bruceames's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2006
Location: Novato, CA
Posts: 17,125
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
I meant BD.

I am giving BD the benefit of the doubt with the biggest release title of the year.

If BD does less than $105 million for HP week, the average for the last 7 weeks of the year goes up with no more major releases ($200+ million) for the rest of the year. Including comparison weeks in December last year where there were multiple $200+ million releases.
My guess is that HP8 will sell about 5.5 million units on both formats (real numbers, not The-Numbers inflated figures. They will be about 30% higher, or, 7.15 million units), with a BD share of about 40%. So that would be 2.2 million units for BD at about $24 per title, or about $53 million. Nothing else to speak of was released so the rest of BD should be about $20-30 million for a total of $83 max. Maybe that's being conservative, but then the last few weeks of HMM have come in under expectations so that has to be factored in, IMO.
bruceames is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2011, 10:19 AM   #169  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 

Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,749
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
My guess is that HP8 will sell about 5.5 million units on both formats (real numbers, not The-Numbers inflated figures. They will be about 30% higher, or, 7.15 million units), with a BD share of about 40%. So that would be 2.2 million units for BD at about $24 per title, or about $53 million. Nothing else to speak of was released so the rest of BD should be about $20-30 million for a total of $83 max. Maybe that's being conservative, but then the last few weeks of HMM have come in under expectations so that has to be factored in, IMO.
I expect your estimate is far closer to reality than what I have as the high end watermark.

I am just thinking on the optimistic high end, as if HP7pt2 does come in ~$85 million, then BD is put into the scenario of needing to average $105 million a week just to hit 25% YoY growth.
PSound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2011, 11:02 AM   #170  
Super Moderator
Thread Starter
 
bruceames's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2006
Location: Novato, CA
Posts: 17,125
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
I expect your estimate is far closer to reality than what I have as the high end watermark.

I am just thinking on the optimistic high end, as if HP7pt2 does come in ~$85 million, then BD is put into the scenario of needing to average $105 million a week just to hit 25% YoY growth.
Actually it would be a little less than $105 million, since HMM's 2010 data is running about 3.3% lower than DEG. The remaining historical data adds up to $571 million. Taking the $29.3 million week off that for matching HP week gives $542 million. That times 125% divided by 7 weeks gives $96.6 million.

Also keep in mind that the DEG is running 6.4% higher than HMM so far this year. So assuming that holds true for Q4 as well, than HMM would need to end up around $2.11 billion in order for the DEG to report a 25% YoY gain. That's about $600 million to sell in the last 8 weeks, so taking $85 million off for HP week leaves $520 million for the last 7 weeks. About $74 per week average. That should be no problem I would think, but still a 25% YoY would be a huge disappointment.
bruceames is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2011, 11:11 AM   #171  
Super Moderator
Thread Starter
 
bruceames's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2006
Location: Novato, CA
Posts: 17,125
Default

The-Numbers is reporting Cars 2 DVD did 1.983 million units. So if the Nielsen ratios are applied that would make the BD at 1.983 * (47/53) = 1.76 million. That would beat POTC4 by a small amount.

Also their top 10 revenue should be more extreme than ever. About $85 million, which would be an astounding 70% higher than what HMM reported. Their figures just get more outlandish as Q4 goes on (as Mike said).
bruceames is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2011, 11:14 AM   #172  
Super Moderator
Thread Starter
 
bruceames's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2006
Location: Novato, CA
Posts: 17,125
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
My guess is that HP8 will sell about 5.5 million units on both formats (real numbers, not The-Numbers inflated figures. They will be about 30% higher, or, 7.15 million units), with a BD share of about 40%. So that would be 2.2 million units for BD at about $24 per title, or about $53 million. Nothing else to speak of was released so the rest of BD should be about $20-30 million for a total of $83 max. Maybe that's being conservative, but then the last few weeks of HMM have come in under expectations so that has to be factored in, IMO.
I just remembered that HP8 is a Friday release, so that 5.5 million should be spread out among the next week as well (although about 70% of that should be for the first 3 days)
bruceames is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2011, 11:23 AM   #173  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 

Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,749
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Actually it would be a little less than $105 million, since HMM's 2010 data is running about 3.3% lower than DEG. The remaining historical data adds up to $571 million. Taking the $29.3 million week off that for matching HP week gives $542 million. That times 125% divided by 7 weeks gives $96.6 million.

Also keep in mind that the DEG is running 6.4% higher than HMM so far this year. So assuming that holds true for Q4 as well, than HMM would need to end up around $2.11 billion in order for the DEG to report a 25% YoY gain. That's about $600 million to sell in the last 8 weeks, so taking $85 million off for HP week leaves $520 million for the last 7 weeks. About $74 per week average. That should be no problem I would think, but still a 25% YoY would be a huge disappointment.
Awesome! Thanks for the breakdown!

That makes 25% look a lot more doable.

And I agree that 25% YoY would be a disappointment, especially with the major catalog releases this year and with the continued cannibalization of DVD (as demonstrated in BD marketshare gains).

Indeed, once BD hits the tipping point of cannibalization, it will have exhausted the main source of its growth and face serious headwinds in growth.
PSound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2011, 11:41 AM   #174  
Steelbook Addict
 
chipvideo's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 678
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
Awesome! Thanks for the breakdown!

That makes 25% look a lot more doable.

And I agree that 25% YoY would be a disappointment, especially with the major catalog releases this year and with the continued cannibalization of DVD (as demonstrated in BD marketshare gains).

Indeed, once BD hits the tipping point of cannibalization, it will have exhausted the main source of its growth and face serious headwinds in growth.
In other words, its going to be hitting a brick wall.
chipvideo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2011, 11:43 AM   #175  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 

Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,749
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by chipvideo View Post
In other words, its going to be hitting a brick wall.
I would not be surprised to see negative growth in Q3 2012.
PSound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2011, 12:53 PM   #176  
Steelbook Addict
 
chipvideo's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 678
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by PSound View Post
I would not be surprised to see negative growth in Q3 2012.
They had to get all the big movies into the 3rd quarter this year to get away from all the HUGE games that just started comming out. It started with Gears 3 and is going strong. I guess they expect gaming to be up this year from what I am reading.
chipvideo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2011, 02:32 PM   #177  
Super Moderator
Thread Starter
 
bruceames's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2006
Location: Novato, CA
Posts: 17,125
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by chipvideo View Post
They had to get all the big movies into the 3rd quarter this year to get away from all the HUGE games that just started comming out. It started with Gears 3 and is going strong. I guess they expect gaming to be up this year from what I am reading.
Good news for the gaming industry. However their good news means bad news for the movie industry, unless the average consumer suddenly has a lot more disposable income available this Xmas than last, which isn't very likely.
bruceames is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2011, 09:49 PM   #178  
Super Moderator
Thread Starter
 
bruceames's Avatar
 

Join Date: May 2006
Location: Novato, CA
Posts: 17,125
Default

According to The-Numbers, Captain America sales fell to about 330k units from over 1.5 million. That's an attrition of nearly 79%. POTC4 had an attrition of 77%, so it seems that the top selling titles have a higher attrition rate than the norm (which is around 71%).

That would explain why these top titles seem to have hardly any legs in week 2 to bolster the following weeks sales. One would have assumed that Cars2 + Captain America week 2 could at least break the $50 million barrier.

Last edited by bruceames; 11-15-2011 at 09:53 PM..
bruceames is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2011, 11:30 PM   #179  
Steelbook Addict
 
chipvideo's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 678
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Good news for the gaming industry. However their good news means bad news for the movie industry, unless the average consumer suddenly has a lot more disposable income available this Xmas than last, which isn't very likely.
Just saw a report a couple days ago about a poll taken and the average shopper is planning on spending aprox 25% less durring the holiday this year over last year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
According to The-Numbers, Captain America sales fell to about 330k units from over 1.5 million. That's an attrition of nearly 79%. POTC4 had an attrition of 77%, so it seems that the top selling titles have a higher attrition rate than the norm (which is around 71%).

That would explain why these top titles seem to have hardly any legs in week 2 to bolster the following weeks sales. One would have assumed that Cars2 + Captain America week 2 could at least break the $50 million barrier.
Makes sense that they are more front loaded due to the increased sales online. I believe it said something like a 15% increase in online spending this year.
chipvideo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2011, 11:36 AM   #180  
High Definition is the definition of life.
 
mikemorel's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 884
Default

TK's Take, from last month:

Possible New Warner Window Could Change the Sellthrough Game

Quote:
The 28-day window three, and sometimes four, studios imposed on Netflix and its fellow rental renegade, Redbox, in an attempt to spur sales, hasn’t really been working all that well, my sources tell me. Back in the gaga days of DVD, when up to 60% of inventory sold through within a week and everyone rushed out to buy the week’s hottest new releases bright and early on Tuesday morning, 28 days was a lifetime. But as the business matured, that sense of urgency gradually went away, to the point where first-week sales are way down. People don’t mind waiting a few weeks to rent a movie from Netflix or Redbox, particularly at a time when the economy is still shaky and entertainment options are at an all-time high. There’s plenty to do in those weeks before a movie hits the Netflix queue, from updating Facebook to beating your kid at Angry Birds.
Apparently new release sell-through revenues have NOT been very stable over the last few years, contrary to what somebody has been attempting to make a case for, armed with dubious, inflated, top 100 the-numbers data.
mikemorel is offline   Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
Go Back   High Def Forum - Your High Definition Community & High Definition Resource >
AddThis Social Bookmark Button
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:59 PM.



Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2004 - 2018, MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands