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Old 02-29-2012, 10:31 AM   #1711
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
TV shows will never be sold on Blu-ray as they were on DVD. TV on DVD really helped sustain DVD sales revenues from 2004 to 2006 or 2007 after the major catalog theatrical move titles were starting to be exhausted for DVD release.

Netflix and Hulu streaming is just a superior experience for episodic TV series viewing for most consumers and much of that old TV show catalog does not benefit much from high definition Blu-ray anyway if it was standard definition or video based. Plus all the old special interest DVD skus and all the double dip DVD releases as well that are useless or obsolete to release on Blu-ray.

Blu-ray is more geared to theatrical movies and for high quality television series and much of the other DVD list of skus will never be released on Blu-ray.
I agree that Blu-ray is a specialized format and for most consumers is overkill when it comes to older content. That's why it's been a long road for mainstream adoption for the format as a whole. Here we are nearly 6 years in and still around a 24% share. That says a lot about the difficultly it has at replacing DVD in all its forms.

It's true that TV on Netflix or on your hard drive is much more convenient than a 5 season set with 30 discs to swap out. It's a pain to remember where you were when you leave the series and come back several months later, as by then the player will have erased the position memory.

So then you're left with those consumers who feel Blu-ray's better quality is worth the extra hassle of dealing with discs, and those are in a minority. Although with disc you also get special features and sub/audio options and never have to worry about availability. It can be risky to watch a series on Netflix only to see it pulled before you finish.

With older content the problem is, and always will be, the trade off of having more grain to go with higher resolution. Most consumers would probably rather get DVD resolution and lose the grain, so you get the "problem" of having too much resolution. Fortunately though, a larger than normal percentage of consumers that like older movies (because they're cinephiles) also appreciate higher resolution and realize that grain is the nature of the beast, so we still get classic movie releases although not nearly on the same scale as DVD. Adding to that is that most of these classics were just released on DVD in the later years of the format and the same consumers who bought them are not interested in double dipping so soon.

Of course the tent pole and popular classics will get better treatment but for the most part, the older movies are being released by small distributors such as Kino or Criterion. Of the 44 pre-1950 movies released last year, only 4 came from the major studios.

Last edited by bruceames; 02-29-2012 at 10:38 AM..
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Old 02-29-2012, 10:58 AM   #1712
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I was talking about its too early to see if the increased Blu-ray YoY change this year is just a result just of the strength of releases or something more than that. I agree with PSound on that.
Is this a joke? Blu-ray's YoY was actually DOWN until 2 weeks ago when Twilight and Lady and the Tramp came out. How much more obvious can it be?

It's really funny to see you downplay the effect of new releases when YoY BO is strong and overplay it when YoY BO is weak.
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Old 02-29-2012, 11:28 AM   #1713
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Is this a joke? Blu-ray's YoY was actually DOWN until 2 weeks ago when Twilight and Lady and the Tramp came out. How much more obvious can it be?

It's really funny to see you downplay the effect of new releases when YoY BO is strong and overplay it when YoY BO is weak.
As I stated before, this is very similar to the spike we saw at end of Q3 / early Q4 last year. The difference is that there is very little prior revenue reported to normalize it in any way.

End of Q1 and H1 will be good benchmarks. We will probably be able to update projections at that point.


So far I have not seen anything to take me off of the ~ 12%-16% BD growth for the year.
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Old 02-29-2012, 12:31 PM   #1714
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
I agree that Blu-ray is a specialized format and for most consumers is overkill when it comes to older content. That's why it's been a long road for mainstream adoption for the format as a whole. Here we are nearly 6 years in and still around a 24% share. That says a lot about the difficultly it has at replacing DVD in all its forms.

It's true that TV on Netflix or on your hard drive is much more convenient than a 5 season set with 30 discs to swap out. It's a pain to remember where you were when you leave the series and come back several months later, as by then the player will have erased the position memory.

So then you're left with those consumers who feel Blu-ray's better quality is worth the extra hassle of dealing with discs, and those are in a minority. Although with disc you also get special features and sub/audio options and never have to worry about availability. It can be risky to watch a series on Netflix only to see it pulled before you finish.

With older content the problem is, and always will be, the trade off of having more grain to go with higher resolution. Most consumers would probably rather get DVD resolution and lose the grain, so you get the "problem" of having too much resolution. Fortunately though, a larger than normal percentage of consumers that like older movies (because they're cinephiles) also appreciate higher resolution and realize that grain is the nature of the beast, so we still get classic movie releases although not nearly on the same scale as DVD. Adding to that is that most of these classics were just released on DVD in the later years of the format and the same consumers who bought them are not interested in double dipping so soon.

Of course the tent pole and popular classics will get better treatment but for the most part, the older movies are being released by small distributors such as Kino or Criterion. Of the 44 pre-1950 movies released last year, only 4 came from the major studios.
I really agree with you here. The really long tail of classic movies are an issue for Blu-ray release for a number of reasons at this point in time.

The first issue is that for pre 1970 titles they have less commercial consumer demand so in general terms they will see more units when the Blu-ray user base is larger. Then as you stated many classics had more recent DVD release so there is fear of re releasing too soon. Then you have the serious issue of source material preservation and status and if the content makes sense to restore or would show well on HD.

Pretty much its certain that all of the $100 box office titles will get a Blu-ray release and we are 80% there already. For the 10,000 titles that

With much of that older long tail stuff the DVD results were modest and for some titles it still is now only in release in some MOD program like the Warner Archive

For the 5000 theatrical movies that ever got more than a modest $4 million in box office performance those are pretty certain to get a Blu-ray release over time as well.

DVD has had about 23,200 theatrical releases about 16,500 pre 1997 catalog and 6700 current release post 1997 titles according to the DVD RR. Most of the post 1997 titles will probably be economically viable for a Blu-ray release regardless of source materials for their recent nature.

The real question is not whether or not the more economically viable better box office performing titles or the more recent titles will be a Blu-ray release, most probably will.

The issue is more on how deep and how much cleanup the deeper catalog titles will have if they ever are released on Blu-ray as those lesser performing and older classic titles are just not going to sell as much units as the better box office performing and more recent stuff.

Blu-ray manufacturing on demand in the future is also certainly possible and some studios may license out more distribution for that deeper library stuff as Blu-ray is getting cheap enough to replicate or duplicate to support low unit breakeven sales model. But that's always going to be easier to do when the Blu-ray ownership base is longer for the niche demand stuff. But its tough for really old stuff to get a studio champion for early release, unless its almost a labor of love as no one is going to fall on his sword for the really old stuff that would not have a projected demand. That naturally would fall in the release cycle after the more productive stuff is released.

I hope more of the deep catalog stuff gets released over time as well and its also a concern of mine. I'm not worried so much about the more viable stuff, that will make money and probably get a Blu-ray release, its the long tail stuff and the restoration and care in release that's still a concern of mine and others I talk to as well. Its good to see any releases in those genres and older 1950 stuff that I wonder about.

Some Blu-ray classics I know about in the past few years sold more than enough to cover their release and restoration costs but there was thoughts that some would have benefited to have been released later when the Blu-ray user base was larger. That's getting better all the time though so the situation is improving.

http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/dom...page=49&p=.htm
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Old 02-29-2012, 12:37 PM   #1715
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As I stated before, this is very similar to the spike we saw at end of Q3 / early Q4 last year. The difference is that there is very little prior revenue reported to normalize it in any way.

End of Q1 and H1 will be good benchmarks. We will probably be able to update projections at that point.


So far I have not seen anything to take me off of the ~ 12%-16% BD growth for the year.

Another difference is that Blu-ray YoY is up much less this time and DVD is down much less. In early Q4 Blu-ray was up over 70% and DVD down around 14%. Now it's 32% Blu-ray and -6% DVD.

In any case I don't think we're referring to the exact same thing, as I was saying that OD is up because of the box office and we don't need to see 3-6 months of follow up data to confirm that.

The only thing that is uncertain is why the delta between Blu-ray and DVD has shrunk so much, and we would need more data to see if that's going to make a trend or is just a temporary quirk in the data.
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Old 02-29-2012, 12:38 PM   #1716
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Is this a joke? Blu-ray's YoY was actually DOWN until 2 weeks ago when Twilight and Lady and the Tramp came out. How much more obvious can it be?

It's really funny to see you downplay the effect of new releases when YoY BO is strong and overplay it when YoY BO is weak.
I do not downplay or overplay it. It makes a big difference when it is down like in 1Q of last year and in mid Nov and Dec 2011 and when it was up in September 2011 and October 2011 of last year.

I have consistently stated that Twilight this year is a huge advantage as it was a disadvantage last year in the comparisons with two Twilight Saga movies and Avatar in 2010 vs 2011.

It seems to me that its you that is discounting the effect that release strength had on the statistics last year. Releases matter this year as they did in the comparisons last year as well.

But I also see a stronger base rate of sales this year as well for Blu-ray as I look deeper in the statistics. If that's true and if the release strength this year remains closer or more favorable then that will advantage the OD and Blu-ray YTY statistics as well. But as I said its much too early to see that and I agree with PSound that the end of the 1Q and into the 2Q will give a better idea of the trend.
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Old 02-29-2012, 12:45 PM   #1717
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Another difference is that Blu-ray YoY is up much less this time and DVD is down much less. In early Q4 Blu-ray was up over 70% and DVD down around 14%. Now it's 32% Blu-ray and -6% DVD.

In any case I don't think we're referring to the exact same thing, as I was saying that OD is up because of the box office and we don't need to see 3-6 months of follow up data to confirm that.

The only thing that is uncertain is why the delta between Blu-ray and DVD has shrunk so much, and we would need more data to see if that's going to make a trend or is just a temporary quirk in the data.
There are definitely two distinct phenomenon at play.

The BO strength (and strong catalog) skewing the results because of the small sample size.

And the new (unexpectedly strong) performance of DVD.


The shift in DVD is really the interesting one, because I am still thinking BD will drift sub-20% growth when box office normalizes over time.
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Old 02-29-2012, 12:47 PM   #1718
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Originally Posted by Kosty
For the 5000 theatrical movies that ever got more than a modest $4 million in box office performance those are pretty certain to get a Blu-ray release over time as well.
There have been a lot more than 5000 movies that grossed over $4 million, especially when you adjust for inflation. Most movies before 1980 aren't even in the boxofficemojo database because the box office is unknown, and many from the 80's and even early 90's are missing as well.

Last year 154 movies released on Blu-ray grossed over $4 million, so using that benchmark as a rough guide, assuming 150 movies a year as being "viable", you would get 1500 for every 10 years, or, over 12000 going back to 1930. Of course, the older the movie, the less current appeal it would have.
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Old 02-29-2012, 12:52 PM   #1719
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There have been a lot more than 5000 movies that grossed over $4 million, especially when you adjust for inflation. Most movies before 1980 aren't even in the boxofficemojo database because the box office is unknown, and many from the 80's and even early 90's are missing as well.

Last year 154 movies released on Blu-ray grossed over $4 million, so using that benchmark as a rough guide, assuming 150 movies a year as being "viable", you would get 1500 for every 10 years, or, over 12000 going back to 1930. Of course, the older the movie, the less current appeal it would have.
I think BD replication capacity may play a role in BD catalog.

It makes sense to gear up runs for games, new releases and the best of catalog (as production capacity allows).


To really pump out a ton of titles, capacity would need to be increased. That would require significant capital investment in BD production lines. Who wants to invest that money?
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Old 02-29-2012, 12:55 PM   #1720
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I do not downplay or overplay it. It makes a big difference when it is down like in 1Q of last year and in mid Nov and Dec 2011 and when it was up in September 2011 and October 2011 of last year.

I have consistently stated that Twilight this year is a huge advantage as it was a disadvantage last year in the comparisons with two Twilight Saga movies and Avatar in 2010 vs 2011.

It seems to me that its you that is discounting the effect that release strength had on the statistics last year. Releases matter this year as they did in the comparisons last year as well.

But I also see a stronger base rate of sales this year as well for Blu-ray as I look deeper in the statistics. If that's true and if the release strength this year remains closer or more favorable then that will advantage the OD and Blu-ray YTY statistics as well. But as I said its much too early to see that and I agree with PSound that the end of the 1Q and into the 2Q will give a better idea of the trend.
BO after 7 weeks last year was down 5%, while BLu-ray was up 18.7%. So that actually increases the total BO disparity when you take last year into account. Thanks for bringing that to my attention.
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Old 02-29-2012, 01:22 PM   #1721
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There are definitely two distinct phenomenon at play.

The BO strength (and strong catalog) skewing the results because of the small sample size.

And the new (unexpectedly strong) performance of DVD.


The shift in DVD is really the interesting one, because I am still thinking BD will drift sub-20% growth when box office normalizes over time.

A lot of releases like Twlight and Courageous this year are more favorable DVD genres than leading Blu-ray genres so more of the positive TBO impact has benefited DVD sales even more than Blu-ray.

I agree we have a small sample size.

But we also have a large jump in the YoY trend that will have some inertia to stay at a higher level as there are not that many weeks in the 2010 period in 1Q 2Q and 3Q 2011 that were above $40M for Blu-ray last year.

So there will be less chances to depress that metric. Especially after we get into late April through mid September.

It will be interesting to see how it develops and where Blu-ray ends up on weeks where the box office advantage is less pronounced.
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Old 02-29-2012, 06:11 PM   #1722
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A lot of releases like Twlight and Courageous this year are more favorable DVD genres than leading Blu-ray genres so more of the positive TBO impact has benefited DVD sales even more than Blu-ray.

I agree we have a small sample size.

But we also have a large jump in the YoY trend that will have some inertia to stay at a higher level as there are not that many weeks in the 2010 period in 1Q 2Q and 3Q 2011 that were above $40M for Blu-ray last year.

So there will be less chances to depress that metric. Especially after we get into late April through mid September.

It will be interesting to see how it develops and where Blu-ray ends up on weeks where the box office advantage is less pronounced.
Q1 is typically light on Blu-ray favorable genres, and last year was no exception either. We're getting apples to apples from what I can tell, and remember that last year there was no Blu-ray exclusive Lady and the Tramp, which topped the charts over Twilight and came in second the following week. It basically cancels out the DVD bias of Twilight, as I had illustrated in an earlier post.
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Old 02-29-2012, 06:20 PM   #1723
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Q1 is typically light on Blu-ray favorable genres, and last year was no exception either. We're getting apples to apples from what I can tell, and remember that last year there was no Blu-ray exclusive Lady and the Tramp, which topped the charts over Twilight and came in second the following week. It basically cancels out the DVD bias of Twilight, as I had illustrated in an earlier post.
Well Bambi was near the same relative slot being in first week of March 01, 2011 as the 1Q Disney classic animation release new to Blu-ray. So that will be a close comparison shortly.

If we are close to apples to apples tin your mind then Blu-ray is still doing better than the pace for this time of last year. But like I said its still very early and its just too soon to really tell on the trending.
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Old 02-29-2012, 09:24 PM   #1724
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Well Bambi was near the same relative slot being in first week of March 01, 2011 as the 1Q Disney classic animation release new to Blu-ray. So that will be a close comparison shortly.

If we are close to apples to apples tin your mind then Blu-ray is still doing better than the pace for this time of last year. But like I said its still very early and its just too soon to really tell on the trending.
Genre mix is apples to apples but not the box office strength.

But like you say it's too early to tell if the box office disparity has mattered.
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Old 03-01-2012, 09:37 AM   #1725
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Nielsen ranking are up at HMM. No surprises that I can see, and BD shares about what one would expect.

Lady and the Tramp and Twilight are still in the top 5 in both charts. Tower Heist is listed as a comedy, but it's actually an action/comedy, so that's why the BD share is higher than normal for the listed genre.

Overall BD share for the Top 20 is 33.4%.


http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-022612

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-022612
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