Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

[mikemorel]

OD down another 17%.

BD sellthrough at $1.43 billion with 8 weeks to go. It may be into the 1st week in December when it hits $1.8 billion (2010 BD sales).

[PSound]

Originally Posted by mikemorel

OD down another 17%.

BD sellthrough at $1.43 billion with 8 weeks to go. It may be into the 1st week in December when it hits $1.8 billion (2010 BD sales).

Wow!

That is an interesting statistic. Will be good to note when it actually hits $1.8 billion. That would mean it would have to do $360 million for BD until the end of the year to do 20% gain, and $450 million to hit 25% YoY.

[PSound]

Or it has to average $102.5 million per week from now on to reach 25% growth.

[Malanthius]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Not that great of a week really, up only 2%. Understandable though, going up against Toy Story 3. After next week the comparisons will be even more unfriendly.

I don't see it as understandable really. Total box office looking at all the releases was pretty close to equal wasn't it? Plus this is a pixar movie. Yes less take at the box office for cars compared to T3 but still. I thought Bluray was growing enough to make up for this? Guess I've been reading a lot of

[bruceames]

Here's the updated table. Like Mike said, OD took a big hit. First time since July it's been down that much, so Cars 2 should get a fail for the way it followed up up TS3. Even worse is that Cars 2 had a lot of help while TS3 was all alone.

Updated thru week ending 11/5/11
Table of Blu-ray sales (HMM and DEG)
numbers are in (revenue) millions.

2011 total  6287.42   -13.0%    4854.09   -20.2%    1433.33   25.5%    22.8%    7739.6  7958.9										
Week Date      OD     OD YoY      DVD    DVD YoY       BD    BD YoY  BD Share  TBO2011 TBO2010										

Q4 total     808.33     0.8%     526.56   -15.4%     281.77   57.0%    34.9%    1502.0  1070.2

44  11/5     167.53   -16.8%     117.59   -22.8%      49.94    2.0%    29.8%     335.6   414.9
43  10/29    147.15    11.2%      96.66   -11.3%      50.49  115.6%    33.6%     204.5   108.7
42  10/22    156.94     9.5%      95.94   -17.1%      61.00  120.8%    38.9%     370.0    56.0
41  10/15    152.92    -2.4%     106.50   -14.1%      46.42   42.2%    30.4%     343.3   233.0
40  10/8     183.79     9.3%     109.87    -9.4%      73.92   57.7%    40.2%     248.6   257.6

Q3 DEG      1742.79    -4.0%    1320.93   -14.7%     421.86   58.0%    24.2%
Q3 total    1667.09    -4.9%    1298.39   -13.9%     368.70   49.9%    22.1%    1806.3  1609.5										

39  10/1     152.58   -14.3%     109.97   -20.4%      42.61    7.1%    27.9%     352.1   382.7
38  9/24     153.60     5.0%     108.69   -12.5%      44.91  103.6%    29.2%     169.3   112.5
37  9/17     164.69    14.0%     107.37   -14.2%      57.32  197.2%    34.8%     190.8   165.2
36  9/10     128.84     0.0%     102.29   -10.5%      26.55   82.9%    20.6%     189.3    60.3
35  9/3      119.04    -9.5%     100.87   -13.7%      18.17   23.5%    15.3%      65.6    95.1
34  8/27     109.34   -13.1%      91.74   -16.6%      17.60   11.5%    16.1%      12.6    45.3
33  8/20     124.53    -4.4%     101.11   -12.8%      23.42   63.3%    18.8%     100.8    81.2
32  8/13     122.13    -1.8%      98.44    -9.5%      23.69   51.8%    19.4%     118.0   143.9
31  8/6      139.66     1.4%     111.78    -3.6%      27.88   27.9%    20.0%     189.8   133.5
30  7/30     108.78   -18.3%      89.06   -20.2%      19.72   -8.7%    18.1%      56.8   177.2
29  7/23     120.50    -1.9%      97.25    -9.4%      23.25   49.9%    19.3%      88.3    72.7
28  7/16     118.09    -4.8%      94.88   -13.5%      23.21   61.7%    19.7%     267.8    94.7
27  7/9      105.31   -16.7%      84.94   -22.7%      20.37   22.9%    19.3%       5.1    45.2										
		
Q2 DEG      1831      -15.0%    1434      -18.8%     397       9.4%    21.7%
Q2 total    1791.55   -12.2%    1402.94   -16.7%     388.61    9.1%    21.7%    2314.8  2422.0

26  7/2      127.11   -12.3%      96.32   -21.6%      30.79   39.4%    24.2%     102.3   181.4
25  6/25     123.25    -7.7%      98.18   -12.8%      25.07   20.1%    20.3%     205.4    85.8
24  6/18     149.89   -11.2%     114.68   -17.7%      35.21   19.5%    23.5%     208.2   142.8
23  6/11     130.81   -13.6%     103.23   -18.6%      27.58   12.3%    21.1%     305.0   152.6
22  6/4      118.16   -34.1%      96.17   -32.8%      21.99  -39.1%    18.6%      15.8   386.8
21  5/28     113.83   -16.6%      91.37   -22.9%      22.46   24.9%    19.7%     154.4    87.9
20  5/21     111.98   -15.2%      91.84   -18.9%      20.14    7.2%    18.0%      99.8   185.7
19  5/14     111.02   -23.6%      90.00   -26.8%      21.02   -6.2%    18.9%     155.6   113.6
18  5/7      122.05   -25.2%      99.74   -29.5%      22.31   -7.7%    18.3%     141.5   106.1
17  4/30     106.99   -40.6%      86.94   -39.6%      20.05  -44.5%    18.7%       0.0   120.5
16  4/23     217.30    -8.3%     171.47    -0.3%      45.83  -29.4%    21.1%     187.5   841.3
15  4/16     184.50    48.7%     134.40    24.8%      50.10  205.3%    27.2%     314.8     8.1
14  4/9      174.66    21.6%     128.60     5.9%      46.06  107.5%    26.5%     424.5     9.4
										
Q1 DEG      2068      -20.0%    1661      -25.0%     407      10.0%    19.7%		
Q1 total    2020.45   -23.2%    1626.20   -28.4%     394.25    9.4%    19.5%    2116.5  2857.2

13  4/2      192.11   -36.0%     144.16   -44.6%      47.95   20.1%    25.0%     300.9   461.1
12  3/26     135.54   -49.8%     110.21   -50.9%      25.33  -44.1%    18.7%     218.0   335.6
11  3/19     138.72   -46.5%     112.58   -49.6%      26.14  -27.1%    18.8%     154.2   534.3
10  3/12     146.96   -24.4%     116.11   -30.8%      30.85   16.5%    21.0%     177.0   247.2
9   3/5      174.59    -7.2%     132.93   -15.4%      41.66   34.1%    23.9%     112.3   258.8
8   2/26     160.96     4.5%     130.35    -2.5%      30.61   50.7%    19.0%     258.0    74.9
7   2/19     172.68    -8.1%     143.99   -12.7%      28.69   25.0%    16.6%      86.2    80.1
6   2/12     172.00   -19.4%     145.34   -23.1%      26.66    8.9%    15.5%     224.0   211.0
5   2/5      158.26   -16.7%     131.08   -20.8%      27.18   11.1%    17.2%      23.0   114.6
4   1/29     151.21   -14.6%     122.05   -20.9%      29.16   27.6%    19.3%     201.2   151.6
3   1/22     131.62   -16.3%     107.98   -21.0%      23.64   14.8%    18.0%      60.7    61.0
2   1/15     135.49   -17.3%     108.51   -23.9%      26.98   27.0%    19.9%     143.3   137.8
1   1/8      150.31   -14.1%     120.91   -19.5%      29.40   18.6%    19.6%     157.7   189.2

OD = optical disc (DVD + Blu-ray)
YoY = year over year percentage change
TBO = total box office
BD = Blu-ray

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Malanthius

I don't see it as understandable really. Total box office looking at all the releases was pretty close to equal wasn't it? Plus this is a pixar movie. Yes less take at the box office for cars compared to T3 but still. I thought Bluray was growing enough to make up for this? Guess I've been reading a lot of

That's pretty accurate. Cars2 is a Pixar title as well, and it had some help that TS3 didn't have.

Safe to say that I don't think this week exceeded anyone's expectations.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by PSound

Or it has to average $102.5 million per week from now on to reach 25% growth.

You don't say. That's a pretty tall order. I don't think it will be filled.

If Blu-ray can't even break $50 on a $335 million TBO week in November, then it's certainly not going to average double that the rest of the year.

Especially with the last 8 weeks averaging $80 million less in box office power than this week.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by mikemorel

OD down another 17%.

BD sellthrough at $1.43 billion with 8 weeks to go. It may be into the 1st week in December when it hits $1.8 billion (2010 BD sales).

FWIW so far this year, the DEG has been 6.4% higher than HMM for Blu-ray. Not that 6.4% is significant or that it will make the difference between reaching or not reaching $2.5 billion.

[mikemorel]

Originally Posted by bruceames

FWIW so far this year, the DEG has been 6.4% higher than HMM for Blu-ray. Not that 6.4% is significant or that it will make the difference between reaching or not reaching $2.5 billion.

Ahhh... Yesss. $2.5 billion. "A plausable and reasonable goal", as one prolific poster and pundit postulated, as recently as September.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by mikemorel

Ahhh... Yesss. $2.5 billion. "A plausable and reasonable goal", as one prolific poster and pundit postulated, as recently as September.

And yet this apparently "unattainable" $2.5 billion is such a tiny number when compared to the $8.6 billion DVD did in 2002. (BTW, DVD rentals were an additional $2.9 billion in 2002).

That's not even 30% of the pace of DVD sell through at the same point in it's lifecycle (well, DVD did start 3 months earlier in the year).

http://www.dvdinformation.com/news/press/010903.htm

[chipvideo]

Looks like my 25% YOY gain for blu-ray is not going to happen. Its looking like I was overly optimistic with my 2011 prediciton. Oh well. Thats the way it goes.

[bruceames]

I found this data on DVD player penetration at EOY 2002 interesting.

DVD Now in More than 40 Million U.S. Households

According to figures compiled by the DVD Entertainment Group based on data from the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA), retailers and manufacturers, more than 25 million DVD players were sold to consumers in 2002, a 50 percent increase over 2001, bringing the number of DVD households to more than 40 million. More than 10 million homes have two or more DVD players. There are currently more than 95 million DVD playback devices in American homes, including set top players, DVD-ROM drives and DVD-capable video game machines.

Compare that with today:

The number of U.S. homes with Blu-ray players, including Sony PS3s, home theater-in-a-box systems (HTiBs), and BD set-tops, now stands at 33.5 million--a year-over-year increase of 52 percent.

So by years end, Blu-ray players will have close to the same level of penetration as DVD players did after 5 1/2 years in their respective lifecycles.

And yet Blu-ray is doing only about 30% of the sales that DVD did. Wow.

Keep in mind that VHS did nearly $10 billion on its own in 2002, just about what DVD will do this year. So you can't say it's DVD's fault that Blu-ray's growth rate is plummeting, as DVD faced the same scenario back then with VHS.

[Malanthius]

Originally Posted by bruceames

I found this data on DVD player penetration at EOY 2002 interesting.




Compare that with today:


So by years end, Blu-ray players will have close to the same level of penetration as DVD players did after 5 1/2 years in their respective lifecycles.

And yet Blu-ray is doing only about 30% of the sales that DVD did. Wow.

Keep in mind that VHS did nearly $10 billion on its own in 2002, just about what DVD will do this year. So you can't say it's DVD's fault that Blu-ray's growth rate is plummeting, as DVD faced the same scenario back then with VHS.

Yup. Clearly people are using the Bluray players as DVD players and to stream more than to play Blurays. At least that's what the sales numbers tell me. Or lack there of.

[PSound]

Originally Posted by bruceames

You don't say. That's a pretty tall order. I don't think it will be filled.

If Blu-ray can't even break $50 on a $335 million TBO week in November, then it's certainly not going to average double that the rest of the year.

Especially with the last 8 weeks averaging $80 million less in box office power than this week.

I can't imagine Harry Potter week getting much more than $120 million for BD in one week.

And I think it will drop quite a bit after that.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by PSound

I can't imagine Harry Potter week getting much more than $120 million for BD in one week.

And I think it will drop quite a bit after that.

You meant for OD, right? I don't think BD itself is going to do much more than $80 next week.