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Old 02-19-2012, 06:48 PM   #1606  
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Originally Posted by chipvideo View Post
I brought this up several times over the last year, yet you kept on ignoring it and calling me a pessimistic doom and gloomer.

Impulse buying is less when you have less retail footprint. You bashed giz and myself all last year and said it made little difference. Boy how times have changed. :rolleyes

Every year that goes on will have less and less retail footprint for OD.

What do you think is going to happen when Best Buy goes belly up? The writing is on the wall for them. They can't compete with Walmart and amazon.
Well I don't remember you ever mentioning Circuit City or even Hollywood Video as being lost to brick and mortar locations and consumer impulse buying specifically in how their lost affected the annual statistics between 2008 and 2009, 2009 and 2010 or 2010 vs 2011. Nor do I actually remember you specifically mentioning the loss of any retailers or Circuit City in particular last year. I may have missed it from you in between your routine postings.

The loss of the rental locations for Blockbuster Video or Hollywood Video Movie Gallery make little difference going forward as their direct to consumer sell thru sales were not that significant. Borders makes a bit more difference going forward.

If Best Buy goes under within the next three years that will make an impact to be sure, but that's not going to happen this year at least.

But Circuit City made a big difference in the 2009 vs 2010 comparisons which we talked about at the time. Especially for 1Q 2008 vs 1Q 2009 vs 1Q 2010 DVD sales comparisons when the March 2009 boost to DVD sales from their liquidation boosted the 2Q 2009 numbers for DVD.

The loss of Circuit City which had 15% to 20% of the DVD sales share was alone a major factor in DVDs decline from 2009 to 2010 as not all of their routine buyers migrated to Best Buy Walmart Amazon or Target.

It was a factor in Best Buy grabbing a higher portion of Blu-ray sales in 2009 and beyond though as they lost their best Blu-ray brick and mortar competitor.

I bashed you and him last year for many reasons including his insistence of saying something that was not true that Blu-ray shown inventory at Best Buy and Walmart and Target was decreasing, which was not true. DVD facings and inventory are certainly less as is CDs, but Blu-ray facings continue to rise as it displaces DVD.

But a loss of Best Buy would be a extremely large impact on the physical sales market, even bigger than the loss of Circuit City or the rentailers.
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Old 02-19-2012, 09:40 PM   #1607  
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Are you kidding me!!!! I said for years that netflix changed the way we consume OD. The all you can eat plan is what changed the home video industry forever. Geez man. Your in denial to say that. Everyone knows that I have always been about the all you can eat disc rentals.

Netflix is the sole reason for Circuit City and all the other places going belly up. They lowered the price to consume an OD in your home. They forced Blockbuster to try the same thing and they failed and went belly up. It has a ripple effect across the entire industry.

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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Well I don't remember you ever mentioning Circuit City or even Hollywood Video as being lost to brick and mortar locations and consumer impulse buying specifically in how their lost affected the annual statistics between 2008 and 2009, 2009 and 2010 or 2010 vs 2011. Nor do I actually remember you specifically mentioning the loss of any retailers or Circuit City in particular last year. I may have missed it from you in between your routine postings.

The loss of the rental locations for Blockbuster Video or Hollywood Video Movie Gallery make little difference going forward as their direct to consumer sell thru sales were not that significant. Borders makes a bit more difference going forward.

If Best Buy goes under within the next three years that will make an impact to be sure, but that's not going to happen this year at least.

But Circuit City made a big difference in the 2009 vs 2010 comparisons which we talked about at the time. Especially for 1Q 2008 vs 1Q 2009 vs 1Q 2010 DVD sales comparisons when the March 2009 boost to DVD sales from their liquidation boosted the 2Q 2009 numbers for DVD.

The loss of Circuit City which had 15% to 20% of the DVD sales share was alone a major factor in DVDs decline from 2009 to 2010 as not all of their routine buyers migrated to Best Buy Walmart Amazon or Target.

It was a factor in Best Buy grabbing a higher portion of Blu-ray sales in 2009 and beyond though as they lost their best Blu-ray brick and mortar competitor.

I bashed you and him last year for many reasons including his insistence of saying something that was not true that Blu-ray shown inventory at Best Buy and Walmart and Target was decreasing, which was not true. DVD facings and inventory are certainly less as is CDs, but Blu-ray facings continue to rise as it displaces DVD.

But a loss of Best Buy would be a extremely large impact on the physical sales market, even bigger than the loss of Circuit City or the rentailers.
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Old 02-19-2012, 10:36 PM   #1608  
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Who mentioned Netflix in this discussion?

We were talking about the effect fo Circuit City dying in Mar 2009 and brick and mortar rental outlets selling DVDs in past years.

Of course cheap Netflix and Redbox kiosk rentals affected sell through as well as Netflix streaming and other Internet mobile and new entertainment activities including better console gaming.

Who is denying that Netflix or Redbox affected things? Not me.

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Originally Posted by chipvideo View Post
Are you kidding me!!!! I said for years that netflix changed the way we consume OD. The all you can eat plan is what changed the home video industry forever. Geez man. Your in denial to say that. Everyone knows that I have always been about the all you can eat disc rentals.

Netflix is the sole reason for Circuit City and all the other places going belly up. They lowered the price to consume an OD in your home. They forced Blockbuster to try the same thing and they failed and went belly up. It has a ripple effect across the entire industry.
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Old 02-19-2012, 10:51 PM   #1609  
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"Well I don't remember you ever mentioning Circuit City or even Hollywood Video as being lost to brick and mortar locations"

They weren't lost to brick and mortar locations. They were lost to netflix offering a cheaper way to watch movies at home.

Netflix made it so people would stop going to the brick and mortar locations to find dvd's wich in turn brought in foot traffic to the store so you could buy overpriced hdmi cables.

See where I am going with the Kosty? I have not changed my tune once in over 5 years on here or the other board.

The home video market is sick. It will cause many other B&M to go belly up over the next decade. Best Buy is a sure lock to go belly up. The writing is on the wall, its only a matter of how much longer than can compete with a company like amazon and wal mart. Plain and simple they can't afford too. Walmart is your one stop shop that sells gas too. Best Buy is a one trick poney. Amazon has such deep pockets it can do what ever they want. They are the apple of online sales.

Best Buy can't survive with their business model. Way too much overhead and physical locations to upkeep while pretty much depending on the home entertainment sector.

Last edited by chipvideo; 02-19-2012 at 10:56 PM..
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Old 02-20-2012, 01:37 AM   #1610  
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When I said that Circuit City was lost to brick and mortar I meant that that retail chain was lost to the sell through category of brick and mortar retailers, not that they went bankrupt because of other brick and mortar retailers. Although in the case of Circuit City, that actually was the case for Majap and home video sales as Walmart (and Best Buy) did put price pressure on them in a big way. For Circuit City the Great Recession and the fall 2008 sales season really killed them.

You have been predicting the death of physical retail packaged media sales since I met you many years ago and even though DVD sales are clearly in decline and BD sales have not covered DVDs attrition its still a huge product category and digital offerings have not rose to the same scale as packaged media either.

We do agree that the studios continue to have concerns on what to do to cover DVDs decline but the core difference between us I think is that I see Blu-ray as a positive part of the solution that the studios and retailers see that a portion of new digital and other revenue streams that will be around together.

If home video package media sales stabilizes a bit (right now its only down -7% YoY and will be closer when we get the Twilight numbers in soon for 2/12/12) with the help of UV and growing Blu-ray sales that's less the studios have to have the other digital revenue streams make up on an annual basis.

You always make it sound like Blu-ray or even DVD will disappear tomorrow and that's simply not the case, they will be substantial revenue streams for many years to come.

Blu-ray will continue to grow both with new release sales and in catalog sales over time and will context to extend the packaged media revenue stream for years to come in the future. Even if Blu-ray does not offset DVD declines fully it still will mean the OD revenue stream still will be larger than most consumer product categories and the one of the largest and highest margin revenue streams for the studios and retailers even if its declining and not as big as DVD at its peak. Blu-ray does not have to cover DVDs decline all by itself in this day and age.

Last edited by Kosty; 02-20-2012 at 01:41 AM..
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Old 02-20-2012, 01:45 AM   #1611  
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Best Buy can't survive with their business model. Way too much overhead and physical locations to upkeep while pretty much depending on the home entertainment sector.
Best buy is not going to go away before the 4Q 2012 holiday season under any circumstances even as it has to negotiate the problems it may face in the near future. If the economy improves so will its future. Its not like Walmart is doing gangbusters in Major Appliances and AV hardware either in this economy.

Best Buy certainly has issues but its still a category leader with potential to work things out. Its not like Circuit City in 1Q 2009.
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Old 02-20-2012, 01:05 PM   #1612  
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Best buy is not going to go away before the 4Q 2012 holiday season under any circumstances even as it has to negotiate the problems it may face in the near future. If the economy improves so will its future. Its not like Walmart is doing gangbusters in Major Appliances and AV hardware either in this economy.

Best Buy certainly has issues but its still a category leader with potential to work things out. Its not like Circuit City in 1Q 2009.
I never said it would this year.
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Old 02-20-2012, 01:10 PM   #1613  
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I never said it would this year.
I think saying it would go away by the end of the decade kinda makes it irrelevant to the discussion of the topic of packaged media sales as well.

Even if things went from bad to worse for Best Buy it will still be around through 4Q 2012 and 4Q 2013, the next two holiday seasons, and would possibly have sustainability issues starting in 1Q 2014.

Then we would worry about how it would affect the 2014 and 4Q 2014 Blu-ray and DVD numbers.

Ye gads. That's too far ahead to think about in Feb 2012.
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Old 02-20-2012, 03:04 PM   #1614  
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Best Buy lives and dies by the strength of the home video market. All one has to do is go look at the stock price chart. They peaked in April of 2006 and have been on a downhill tragectory since.
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Old 02-20-2012, 04:15 PM   #1615  
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Best Buy lives and dies by the strength of the home video market. All one has to do is go look at the stock price chart. They peaked in April of 2006 and have been on a downhill tragectory since.
Correlation does not mean causation.

Lots of other factors there besides packaged media sales for DVD and Blu-ray. Prices for HDTVs for example and consumers cutting back on more luxury expenses such as major appliances and other major purchases as well.

But Best Buy has some advantages as well as a surviving big box category leader with a national footprint. But they have to solve many issues such as their e commerce website and management of their services divisions.
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Old 02-20-2012, 05:09 PM   #1616  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Correlation does not mean causation.

Lots of other factors there besides packaged media sales for DVD and Blu-ray. Prices for HDTVs for example and consumers cutting back on more luxury expenses such as major appliances and other major purchases as well.

But Best Buy has some advantages as well as a surviving big box category leader with a national footprint. But they have to solve many issues such as their e commerce website and management of their services divisions.

I hate when I go in to purchase only to find the price is different in the store than what I saw on the website.
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Old 02-20-2012, 05:26 PM   #1617  
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A few things to consider. For this week the wholesale price for the Twilight release was considerably higher than it was in the past and both the DVD version and the Blu-ray versions were not as heavily discounted as in the past and especially as much as the last release in December 2010.

There was also a larger price disparity this last week between the Blu-ray and the DVD versions. At my local retailers I saw a $10 to $12 difference in price last weekend between the DVD and Blu-ray versions and neither sku was heavily discounted as in the past.

Summit/Lionsgate kept the wholesale price higher and retailers it seemed did not feel they had to discount much to have the rate of sales they wanted. So the amount of units DVD sold and the Blu-ray units sold will generate more revenue and profitable income for the studio and retailer than if they were discounted.

Twilight Franchise Nielsen Videoscan first alert release week reported Blu-ray unit marketshares


25.00% for Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part I (Feb 2012) release week

22.67% for Twilight: Eclipse (Dec 2010)

17.00% for Twilight: New Moon (Mar 2010)

7.00% for Twilight (Mar 2009)


http://forums.highdefdigest.com/high...ml#post1884501

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/high...ml#post2076618

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/high...ml#post1484238


Finally, the seasonality of the release may also have affected the marketshare split as well between DVD and Blu-ray. The earlier release in Feb 2012 here was designed to match the romantic female orientated nature of the storyline with Valentines Day and that's a different dynamic than Easter or Christmas release times.
Which retailer was this?

Best Buy had the Blu-ray for $22.99, only $4.00 more than the DVD. Target and Amazon was the same price, $5.00 more than the DVD. Walmart was also $22.99, and only $3.00 more than the DVD.

Those 4 retailers should cover the vast majority of sales, and the price difference is relatively small, as well as overall pricing being very normal.

It looks to me like the Blu-ray version was not handicapped at all.

Quote:
Otherwise, most of the attention still was focused on The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn —Part 1. Notably, Best Buy raised the price of its copies a few days after the Saturday release date, bringing the DVD version from $18.99 to $22.99 and the Blu-ray from $22.99 to $24.99. Best Buy’s weekly ad circular also stopped advertising the chain’s exclusive steelbook packaging.

Target didn’t adjust the prices, but stopped promoting its exclusive DVD gift set.
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/age...on-time-target
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Old 02-20-2012, 05:44 PM   #1618  
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Which retailer was this?

Best Buy had the Blu-ray for $22.99, only $4.00 more than the DVD. Target and Amazon was the same price, $5.00 more than the DVD. Walmart was also $22.99, and only $3.00 more than the DVD.

Those 4 retailers should cover the vast majority of sales, and the price difference is relatively small, as well as overall pricing being very normal.

It looks to me like the Blu-ray version was not handicapped at all.



http://www.homemediamagazine.com/age...on-time-target
Maybe I was seeing the combo versions or something at my local Target and Best Buy instead of the Blu-ray only skus.

But those also were prices on Sunday or Monday when I posted that and they were not the Friday night or Saturday release day price points. Its possible I was only seeing the Blu-ray special editions as I did not look that close.

The Twilight Saga teen vampire stuff is not something I ever considered buying so maybe I missed something.

You are right if there was a normal $5 price differential as that's pretty much the norm now a days.

I see the Best Buy website has similar pricing differential between the DVD and Blu-ray skus at the moment.

What was the lowest price one could get the Twilight DVD version on its midnight release date?
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Old 02-20-2012, 05:50 PM   #1619  
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http://www.twilightlexicon.com/2012/...elease-events/

Quote:
A perfect Valentine’s Day gift for fang-y friends and families, the DVD will be available for $22.96 and the Blu-ray for $26.96. For a full list of stores holding midnight events, please visit http://see.walmart.com/moviecenter/t...king-dawn-pt-1
Quote:
To keep the crowd under control, Target is handing out passes beginning at 9:00 p.m. to all the Twi-hards waiting in line. Prices at Target: $24.99 for the exclusive “Flower Prop” 2-disc DVD gift set and $17.99 for a 2-disc set. Blu-ray will also be available.

http://www.examiner.com/northside-fa...#ixzz1my9HtuWX
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Old 02-20-2012, 05:52 PM   #1620  
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Here was a site that explained all the release night deals.

http://happymoneysaver.com/where-to-...-dvdbluray-211

Quote:
where to get the best deal on twilight breaking dawn dvd/bluray (2/11)
FEBRUARY 9, 2012


Calling all the Twi-fans out there! The Twilight Breaking Dawn PART 1 DVD/BluRay will be released this Saturday, February 11th.

Get the Best Price on Breaking Dawn DVD/Blu-Ray (<- tweet this!)

If you are planning to buy this DVD when it comes out, Toys R Us seems to have the best price I can find out there:



Image from Toys R Us Ad from this week (2/5-2/11)

2 Disc Special Edition DVD – $15.99
Special Edition Blu-Ray – $19.99


Target stores are having a fun event… where you can see the sneek peek of Part 2 at the event! I love a great sneek peek!!

Target Exclusive Event Information: You are cordially invited to an exclusive Target event: Be the first to get your Breaking Dawn – Part 1 DVD and see a SNEAK PEEK of Breaking Dawn – Part 2! Come to participating Target stores on Friday February 10th – Tickets for the DVD will be distributed in Guest Services starting at 9pm. Breaking Dawn Part 2 Sneak Peek will begin at 11pm. Stores close at 1am. Find a location near you.

2 Disc Special Edition DVD $17.99 – plus you should be able to price match the ToysRus Ad 2/5-2/11 for $15.99
Special Edition Blu-Ray- $22.99 – price match ToysRus ad for $19.99
Special Edition Blu-Ray + Get a special Keepsake Flower Petal from the set- $28.99


Walmart – they are also having a fun event, but you don’t get to see the sneak peek of Part 2. However you can pre-order your copy online and enter to win a trip for two to the L.A. premiere of Breaking Dawn Part 2 in November 2012.

Here are the 4 separate Breaking Dawn Part 1 Versions Walmart is selling:

2 Disc DVD set – $17.96
2 Disc Blu-Ray set – $22.96
Exclusive 2 Disc DVD + Fabric Poster of Bella & Edward getting married – $22.96
Exclusive Blu-ray set + Fabric Poster – $26.96
If you go in store you can price match the ToysRus ad for $15.99 for DVD too.

If you don’t want to go in the store you can order on Amazon!

2 Disc Special Edition DVD – $17.99
Special Edition Blu-Ray - $22..99
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