Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

[bruceames]

Here are the top titles, and the Blu-ray share HMM vs. The-Numbers, for several consecutive weeks last summer

Date  HMMshare  Numbers     Title
12-Jun	52.6%	47.0%	True Grit
19-Jun	57.2%	48.1%	True Grit
26-Jun	43.4%	29.0%	The Adjustment Bureau
3-Jul	61.4%	49.1%	Sucker Punch
10-Jul	49.8%	39.8%	Sucker Punch
17-Jul	42.5%	36.6%	Rango
24-Jul	42.5%	33.8%	Rango
31-Jul	41.1%	32.9%	Source Code

Notice that the Blu-ray share for The-Numbers is quite a bit lower. I didn't calculate for the May and early June ratios, but they are probably similar, with The-Numbers giving lower Blu-ray shares. Lower Blu-ray shares would mean lower units for Blu-ray. That's why you can't just scale the DVD data and assume HMM Blu-ray shares. Hope this helps.

[Kosty]

Here are those examples with the actual magnitudes of the The-Numbers Blu-ray estimates multiplied by the variation to give an order of magnitude of the possible variations. In most cases the difference is the error of applying the non Walmart considered Nielsen Videoscan first alert percentages against the percentages of The-numbers in that slow volume period of the year where The-Numbers is including Walmart DVD sales (and a lower rate of Blu-ray sales) while Nielsen Videoscan is not.

But it should be less of a factor now as Walmart is now closer to the rest of the market in Blu-ray marketshares as Blu-ray has matured and become more mass market and mainstream.

Date  HMMshare  Numbers     Title
12-Jun	52.6%	47.0%	True Grit (736,835 x 5.6% = 41,262)
19-Jun	57.2%	48.1%	True Grit (375,018 * 9.1% = 34,126)              
26-Jun	43.4%	29.0%	The Adjustment Bureau (122,305 * 14.4% = 17,611)
3-Jul	61.4%	49.1%	Sucker Punch (265,856 * 12.3% = 32,700)
10-Jul	49.8%	39.8%	Sucker Punch (69,464 * 9% = 6,251)
17-Jul	42.5%	36.6%	Rango (352,502 * 5.9% = 20,767)
24-Jul	42.5%	33.8%	Rango (317,392 * 8.7% = 27,613)
31-Jul	41.1%	32.9%	Source Code (188,845 * 8.2% = 15,485)

Originally Posted by bruceames

Here are the top titles, and the Blu-ray share HMM vs. The-Numbers, for several consecutive weeks last summer



Notice that the Blu-ray share for The-Numbers is quite a bit lower. I didn't calculate for the May and early June ratios, but they are probably similar, with The-Numbers giving lower Blu-ray shares. Lower Blu-ray shares would mean lower units for Blu-ray. That's why you can't just scale the DVD data and assume HMM Blu-ray shares. Hope this helps.

Well its been a lot closer since Aug 2012 between the HMM and The-Numbers marketshares so using the DVD estimates against the NV unit percentages will give about same result as their Blu-ray estimates going forward. but the only advantage is you can self calculate them out a day or so earlier than when the Blu-ray Top 10 chart is released when you get the TN DVD Top 30 chart and combine it with the NV BD percentages. Otherwise the ratios are the same results down the line for the index numbers. The leading #1 title or the DVD estimates really just scale the magnitude of the unit estimates, the unit percentages and the relationship of the Index numbers of the Nielsen Videoscan lists and the The-Numbers lists are about the same now for most weeks for most titles. The only thing the The-Numbers does is scale the magnitude. But in comparing the The-Numbers estimates to one another they generally should exhibit the same bias or house effect. The only time since August 2011 when that has not been the case was when they mentioned it on a couple occasions (Thor was one time the first week TN was off)

By all reports since last fall the Walmart BD share of the market since the 4Q 2011 period is now close to their 40% traditional DVD share so for most genres the reported Nielsen Videoscan first alert numbers will be closer now to the truer Blu-ray share for the entire market.

In the summer period you also are looking that above that's also a lower volume time so the percentage variation will equate into a smaller absolute unit magnitude variation as well. Then of course they are just estimates as well for any title each week and expected to be 5% to 10% accurate so that sort of variation would not be surprising. If anything the current close match between the The-Numbers and Nielsen Videoscan Blu-ray unit marketshares since August 2011 is almost too close.

If the question was the 4Q 2011 and 1Q 2011 and 2Q 2011 or earlier calculations using that method its clear that the The-Numbers ratios that were supposed to include Walmart in the consideration should be lower than the Nielsen Videoscan percentages that did not include Walmart in the Nielsen Videoscan first alert point of sale census. That's exactly what you should expect, the figures that include Walmart should have a lower Blu-ray unit revenue share than the figures that did not consider Walmart.

Units are less of an issue for The-Numbers than revenues , especially for first week of some major releases where it seems they still do not have a good handle of estimating Walmart Blu-ray revenues for some genres. Their DVD estimates at least seem to be consistent in methodology since 2006 as well and follow the same trends as other sources throughout the year.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Kosty

Well its been a lot closer since Aug 2012 between the HMM and The-Numbers marketshares so using the DVD estimates against the NV unit percentages will give about same result as their Blu-ray estimates.

By all reports since last fall the Walmart BD share of the market since the 4Q 2011 period is now close to their 40% traditional DVD share so for most genres the reported Nielsen Videoscan first alert numbers will be closer now to the truer Blu-ray share for the entire market.

In the summer period you also are looking that above that's also a lower volume time so the percentage variation will equate into a smaller absolute unit magnitude variation as well. Then of course they are just estimates as well for any title each week and expected to be 5% to 10% accurate so that sort of variation would not be surprising. If anything the current close match between the The-Numbers and Nielsen Videoscan Blu-ray unit marketshares since August 2011 is almost too close.

If the question was the 4Q 2011 and 1Q 2011 and 2Q 2011 or earlier calculations using that method its clear that the The-Numbers ratios that were supposed to include Walmart in the consideration should be lower than the Nielsen Videoscan percentages that did not include Walmart in the Nielsen Videoscan first alert point of sale census. That's exactly what you should expect, the figures that include Walmart should have a lower Blu-ray unit revenue share than the figures that did not consider Walmart.

It been a lot closer lately, but last January is not "lately". The-Numbers didn't start tracking Blu-ray until May, and when they did, their Blu-ray shares were smaller. Around an average of 15-20% smaller. That time period is much closer to last January than "lately", and as such, if any assumption is to be made, it should account for this prevailing discount factor.

For example, for the week ending May 8th, The-Numbers DVD figures for The Green Hornet is 449,314. The Nielsen Blu-ray share is 49.5%, which would calculate to 440,416 Blu-ray units.

However, The-Numbers reported the Blu-ray units for this title to be only 291,320 units. That's a whopping 33.7% less than just by plugging in Nielsen ratios into DVD units.

And the funny thing is, after you make that 33.7% downwards adjustment on that title, for that week, the rest of the titles generally fall into the same ratio adjustment, give or take a few percent.

Bottom line, don't use DVD units with Nielsen Blu-ray share to get Blu-ray units. Actually, I don't like to use The-Numbers data on anything, because their data has been proven to be too unreliable. However it can be of use when comparing two different apples to apples periods, such as top 10 Blu-ray May 8th 2012 vs. 2011. Or finding how certain titles attrition over the first few weeks. But NOT using DVD numbers with Blu-ray ratios from a different source to get Blu-ray numbers. Please.

[cakefoo]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Here are the top titles, and the Blu-ray share HMM vs. The-Numbers, for several consecutive weeks last summer

Date  HMMshare  Numbers     Title
12-Jun	52.6%	47.0%	True Grit
19-Jun	57.2%	48.1%	True Grit
26-Jun	43.4%	29.0%	The Adjustment Bureau
3-Jul	61.4%	49.1%	Sucker Punch
10-Jul	49.8%	39.8%	Sucker Punch
17-Jul	42.5%	36.6%	Rango
24-Jul	42.5%	33.8%	Rango
31-Jul	41.1%	32.9%	Source Code

Notice that the Blu-ray share for The-Numbers is quite a bit lower. I didn't calculate for the May and early June ratios, but they are probably similar, with The-Numbers giving lower Blu-ray shares. Lower Blu-ray shares would mean lower units for Blu-ray. That's why you can't just scale the DVD data and assume HMM Blu-ray shares. Hope this helps.

So you're saying we shouldn't trust the DVD numbers either, just because the Numbers' Blu-ray data is off? Can't we chalk that up to it being early days for Blu-ray tracking for them?

[Kosty]

The Green Hornet and Thor were the weeks that The-Numbers identified as being the two weeks where they screwed up the Blu-ray first week estimates and they had to account for them in subsequent weeks.

I agree that using the DVD figures against the Blu-ray Nielsen Videoscan first alert marketshares in any time period before they started publishing the Blu-ray Top 10 chart will bias the estimates high as their DVD estimates include Walmart while the Nielsen Videoscan first alert marketshares do not. The percent variation would be likely higher in the slower volume weeks of 1Q 2Q 3Q than the 4Q and would probably be worse the further in time you went back as Walmart would have higher DVD sales in relationship to Blu-ray the earlier you went back.

Some genres would also be affected more than others as family friendly and female genres would have less Blu-ray marketshare and more DVD share at Walmart than action Blu-ray friendly genres as well.

[cakefoo]

My argument about the strength of releases doesn't hinge on 100% accurate The Numbers data. It doesn't change the fact that there were several major DTV titles and catalogs and major December releases on the individual weeks that people here were failing to acknowledge, mocking the concept of releases mattering to suit their agenda.

I will stop doing The Numbers + HMM calculations since they can't be proven 100% accurate.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by cakefoo

My argument about the strength of releases doesn't hinge on 100% accurate The Numbers data. It doesn't change the fact that there were several major DTV titles and catalogs and major December releases on the individual weeks that people here were failing to acknowledge, mocking the concept of releases mattering to suit their agenda.

I will stop doing The Numbers + HMM calculations since they can't be proven 100% accurate.

You do not need to do that anymore as you can just refer to the published The-Numbers Blu-ray calculations since May 2011.

If you do make a calculation for dates before that you should realize that any calculation done will overestimate the Blu-ray units as The-Numbers DVD estimates include Walmart in the calculations and the Nielsen Videoscan first alert Blu-ray numbers do not use Walmart so any Blu-ray percentages from Nielsen Videoscan would be too high and would overestimate Blu-ray units by 5% or 10% or more depending on the genre and magnitudes involved.

Walmart Blu-ray percentages have also been a moving target and have grown throughout the years as well so the further you go back the worse the effect.

But even if the calculations were 10% or greater off for any given title they still would be order of magnitude correct between titles and your argument still would be valid as even order of magnitude relationships still would make your point as well.

[bruceames]

I think that in May one can compare YoY units and get reasonable results, at least considering the source. And like Kosty said, the ratios between titles are going to be about the same after adjusting the initial number for the order of magnitude. Once you do that, one can reasonably use the Nielsen ratios on the DVD units.

Here are some deviation stats for those weeks I took the time to calculate. The percentage is the standard deviation from the average between titles, The-Numbers ratios vs. Nielsen. The average for those weeks is only 2.8%, so it's reasonably close. I suspect that the more recent weeks would be on average even closer than that.

10/23/11	0.40%
10/16/11	0.88%
10/9/11	0.71%
	
1.76	
10/2/11	2.45%
9/25/11	0.86%
9/18/11	6.98%
9/11/11	1.35%
9/4/11	1.04%
8/28/11	1.71%
8/21/11	1.36%
8/14/11	1.95%
8/7/11	8.64%
7/31/11	1.98%
7/24/11	1.34%
7/17/11	18.34%
7/10/11	1.00%
	
1.85	
7/3/11	0.98%
6/26/11	1.07%
6/19/11	1.11%
6/12/11	2.99%
6/5/11	3.22%
5/29/11	2.20%

[Kosty]

I did the the comparisons from May through November 2011 as an excel sheet between The-Numbers and HMM.

I have not updated it for recently as I have had less time in Dec and Jan and the percentages have matched for the most part.

But its a way to extend also the Top 10 Blu-ray unit estimates out to the Top 20 Blu-ray titles we have index numbers or DVD estimates and Blu-ray percentages to get an weekly order of magnitude estimate.

My sources tell me since the fall the The-Numbers weekly DVD and Blu-ray unit estimates are pretty close but sometimes the Blu-ray weekly estimates for revenues are off by a bit. Some weeks though (Green Hornet and Thor) the The-Numbers estimate was off quite a but and they acknowledged it and had to adjust in subsequent weeks)

Their cumulative totals are said to be pretty good but sometimes some initial weeks are flaky.

[Kosty]

It was even closer in October 2011 through December 2011 (12/12/11) which was the last week I calculated.

There is some small variance between taking the percentages you get from the TN DVD and BD units vs the Nielsen Videoscan unit marketshare BD percentages but it looks pretty random. Just what you would expect.

The unit calculations also are close but different if you take and extend the Nielsen Videoscan index numbers down vs the The-Numbers Blu-ray estimates, with small but random variations and if you go title by title and derive a Blu-ray estimate by going off the TN DVD estimate for each title and applying the NV Blu-ray marketshares. More variation for lagging BD genres with small random variations . Again pretty much what you would expect.

The recent The-Numbers Blu-ray numbers and percentages for UNITS seem reasonably accurate and at least scaled to the same magnitude as their long term DVD estimates since 2006. But I fully agree that the revenue estimates which we have no way to compare against on a weekly basis by title are more problematic and even if the best available are still less reliable.

Estimating revenues especially in the short term is always far more difficult for packaged media sales because of the difficulty of estimating Walmart sales revenues. That's always the issue, especially for a short term weekly basis.

But units should be easier at least since the fall when Walmart's share of Blu-ray sales has closed to be close to its long time 40% share of DVD sales.

[TowerGrove]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Redbox rentals are a factor, but I don't think it's the main factor. Here are some others:

1) saturation of the market (the biggest factor). DVDs are everywhere, including unwatched in shrink wrap in people's homes

2) price erosion due to the above. Titles are underselling, resulting in more clearance pricing, which negatively affects revenue.

3) Introduction of a superior format. This would affect DVD by firstly devaluing the product, as it is now a second best product, and also by discouraging consumers from buying a format that was rendered technically obsolete after just 9 years. Many won't make the same mistake with Blu-ray.

4) The economy (which is now starting to slowly recover)

5) Bit torrents and cheaper internet alternatives

6) streaming and other more "convenient" ways to choose and watch a movie

7) the introduction (or increased use) of very addictive time hog pastimes, such as facebook, the internet in general, and gaming.

Also fewer and fewer storefronts will have some effect on sales. Many retailers who carried items like media have closed in the past 2 years. Including Borders, Blockbuster, Circuit City some of the Barnes and Nobles, Hollywood Video, Virgin, Saturday Matinee, Suncoast etc (the list goes on and on). This has caused me to impulse buy less and less now.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by TowerGrove

Also fewer and fewer storefronts will have some effect on sales. Many retailers who carried items like media have closed in the past 2 years. Including Borders, Blockbuster, Circuit City some of the Barnes and Nobles, Hollywood Video, Virgin, Saturday Matinee, Suncoast etc (the list goes on and on). This has caused me to impulse buy less and less now.

I think that's a large factor that has often not been discussed much.

The closure of Circuit City in particular in March 2009 made a difference as they were among the leading packaged media retailers. Their liquidation sale in 1Q 2009 affected the 1Q 2009 vs 1Q 2008 comparisons and also made a one time effect in the annual comparisons plus eliminated that sales channel forever in the future.

Although Circuit City closed for reasons that were predominately not related to software sales they changed the marketplace forever when they went belly up in 2009. That eliminated a major channel for brick and mortar packaged media sales that many consumers routinely bought DVD units from for many years.

The other rentailer closures for Hollywood Video/ Movie Gallery Blockbuster locations and Borders etc all have had an effect to as they eliminated locations that consumers did impulse purchases of packaged media as well.

Nice observation that we have not talked about much.

[TowerGrove]

Originally Posted by Kosty

I think that's a large factor that has often not been discussed much.

The closure of Circuit City in particular in March 2009 made a difference as they were among the leading packaged media retailers. Their liquidation sale in 1Q 2009 affected the 1Q 2009 vs 1Q 2008 comparisons and also made a one time effect in the annual comparisons plus eliminated that sales channel forever in the future.

Although Circuit City closed for reasons that were predominately not related to software sales they changed the marketplace forever when they went belly up in 2009. That eliminated a major channel for brick and mortar packaged media sales that many consumers routinely bought DVD units from for many years.

The other rentailer closures for Hollywood Video/ Movie Gallery Blockbuster locations and Borders etc all have had an effect to as they eliminated locations that consumers did impulse purchases of packaged media as well.

Nice observation that we have not talked about much.

Circuit City's downfall started when Dickie Sharp took over and brought the world DIVX and continued thru the rest of his tenure of poor management at the concern.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by TowerGrove

Circuit City's downfall started when Dickie Sharp took over and brought the world DIVX and continued thru the rest of his tenure of poor management at the concern.

I remember them jumping the shark when they fired all the commissioned sales people out of the blue and hired or rehired substitutes at minimum wage it seemed. They had troubled relationships with vendors as well when HDTV prices fell and really did not manage many things well for major consumer electronics inventory.

They were hit hard in cash flow at the start of the great recession.

[chipvideo]

Originally Posted by Kosty

I think that's a large factor that has often not been discussed much.

The closure of Circuit City in particular in March 2009 made a difference as they were among the leading packaged media retailers. Their liquidation sale in 1Q 2009 affected the 1Q 2009 vs 1Q 2008 comparisons and also made a one time effect in the annual comparisons plus eliminated that sales channel forever in the future.

Although Circuit City closed for reasons that were predominately not related to software sales they changed the marketplace forever when they went belly up in 2009. That eliminated a major channel for brick and mortar packaged media sales that many consumers routinely bought DVD units from for many years.

The other rentailer closures for Hollywood Video/ Movie Gallery Blockbuster locations and Borders etc all have had an effect to as they eliminated locations that consumers did impulse purchases of packaged media as well.

Nice observation that we have not talked about much.

I brought this up several times over the last year, yet you kept on ignoring it and calling me a pessimistic doom and gloomer.

Impulse buying is less when you have less retail footprint. You bashed giz and myself all last year and said it made little difference. Boy how times have changed. :rolleyes

Every year that goes on will have less and less retail footprint for OD.

What do you think is going to happen when Best Buy goes belly up? The writing is on the wall for them. They can't compete with Walmart and amazon.