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Old 02-17-2012, 11:22 AM   #1561  
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Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post
Sure - tell me the number of kiosks Redbox had at the end of 2006 - the year that DVD peaked.
1600. 1000 at McDonald's.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1985...-strong-growth

It's also when they starting testing their Walmart kiosks.

Do many people shop and eat at Walmart and McDonald's?

"As they move from 1,600 kiosks to 5,000 and then to eventually 10,000, it will be fascinating to watch the effect it has on the DVD industry."

The growth in Redbox helped usher in the fall of DVD sales.

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Nope - but you have to include Netflix too. Or are you going to argue THAT?
I agree. But Netflix was around well before Redbox and well before DVD's peak. Netflix was around for the highs and the lows. Redbox mainly just the lows. Coincidence?

Netflix was around since 1999. Yet DVD still skyrocketed. Only when Redbox showed did DVD falter. Coincidence or cause/effect?

Either way it's undeniable Redbox had a huge impact on DVD sales. I mean - $1/night. Hard to beat.

Last edited by bombsnizzle; 02-17-2012 at 11:28 AM..
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Old 02-17-2012, 11:31 AM   #1562  
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Old 02-17-2012, 11:38 AM   #1563  
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1600. 1000 at McDonald's.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1985...-strong-growth

It's also when they starting testing their Walmart kiosks.

Do many people shop and eat at Walmart and McDonald's?

"As they move from 1,600 kiosks to 5,000 and then to eventually 10,000, it will be fascinating to watch the effect it has on the DVD industry."

The growth in Redbox helped usher in the fall of DVD sales.

I agree. But Netflix was around well before Redbox and well before DVD's peak. Netflix was around for the highs and the lows. Redbox mainly just the lows. Coincidence?

Netflix was around since 1999. Yet DVD still skyrocketed. Only when Redbox showed did DVD falter. Coincidence or cause/effect?

Either way it's undeniable Redbox had a huge impact on DVD sales. I mean - $1/night. Hard to beat.
People were buying huge amounts of DVD catalog in 2002 through 2007. DVD started to fall after all of those titles were released.
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Old 02-17-2012, 11:45 AM   #1564  
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People were buying huge amounts of DVD catalog in 2002 through 2007. DVD started to fall after all of those titles were released.
Redbox didn't exist in 2002. So I fail to see your point.

So running out of catalogs is what doomed DVD and not a $1/night rental service? Would you agree that it is less tempting to buy a movie when you can rent it for $1/night? Or are you not even willing to agree to that?

I can't believe I have to sit here and debate whether or not Redbox has impacted DVD sales. We have a goddamn 56 day embargo by the biggest movie studio which emphatically suggests they are scared of the Redbox effect.

The rise of Redbox coincided with the fall of DVD. How direct of an impact is the only variable.

Last edited by bombsnizzle; 02-17-2012 at 11:48 AM..
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Old 02-17-2012, 11:49 AM   #1565  
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Box office power matters, but more importantly, RELEASES matter. What's the difference? Box office power only takes into account movies released in January that had a box office presence. December home video releases, limited theatrical releases, DTV releases, and catalog releases don't add to the BO power tally. If they did 2011 would be far more even with 2012 in terms of release strength. Also, there were a couple 2012 BO releases (Courageous and Paranormal Activity 3) that were in genres that either don't convert well to Blu-ray (courageous) or don't sell as much in proportion to their bo on home video period (Paranormal Activity)
You're right that the December box office was more of a factor, but catalogs and DTV were very prevalent in 2011 as well.

Using just the Nielsen First Alert ratios, I grouped the release types into five different categories, and determine the weight of each for the first five weeks of this year and last.

BD-1: new theatrical release week 1.

BD-2-4:new theatrical weeks 2-4

BD-5-8: new theatrical weeks 5-8

BD-9-26 new theatrical weeks 9-26

BD-nonBD everything else. DTV, catalog reissues (such as To Kill a Mockingbird), new theatrical over 26 weeks old (now considered as catalog, due to their being over 6 months old), TV, music, etc).

The sixth column is the average BD top 20 share for the week (from the OD table.

The first sets of figures are the difference between this year and last, and the top row is the average (not the weighted average, because I didn't use The-Numbers to weight them, as that info is too unreliable). The ratios are from the BLu-ray top 20, not the OD top 20.

Using the row highlighted in red as an example:

52% = 52% of unit sales that week came from new theatrical titles that were just released

18.7% = 18.7% of unit sales from new theatrical titles released 2-4 weeks ago.

etc.



Code:
Week	Date	BD-1	BD-2-4	BD-5-8	BD-9-26	BD-nonBO BD share
							
tot	diff	10.9%	-9.7%	-4.7%	4.6%	-1.1%	5.2%
							
5	diff	43.8%	-15.7%	-9.7%	-2.1%	-16.4%	12.9%
4	diff	-4.1%	6.6%	-5.4%	2.0%	1.0%	12.1%
3	diff	11.8%	-15.8%	-2.3%	-2.6%	8.9%	0.4%
2	diff	5.1%	-3.4%	-14.6%	0.6%	12.3%	-5.2%
1	diff	-2.1%	-20.1%	8.4%	25.2%	-11.4%	5.9%
							
tot	ave	45.0%	15.1%	15.6%	11.8%	12.6%	38.4%

5	2/5/12	52.0%	18.7%	0.0%	12.5%	16.8%	42.2%
4	1/29/12	66.9%	15.0%	6.0%	4.8%	7.5%	45.4%
3	1/22/12	39.1%	10.1%	27.9%	4.9%	18.0%	30.5%
2	1/15/12	40.6%	10.1%	23.7%	9.0%	16.6%	38.3%
1	1/8/12	26.3%	21.6%	20.5%	27.8%	3.9%	35.8%
							
tot	ave	34.1%	24.8%	20.3%	7.2%	13.7%	33.2%

5	2/6/11	8.2%	34.3%	9.7%	14.6%	33.2%	29.4%
4	1/30/11	71.0%	8.4%	11.3%	2.8%	6.5%	33.4%
3	1/23/11	27.3%	25.9%	30.2%	7.5%	9.1%	30.0%
2	1/16/11	35.5%	13.5%	38.3%	8.4%	4.4%	43.4%
1	1/9/11	28.4%	41.7%	12.0%	2.6%	15.3%	29.9%
.
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Old 02-17-2012, 12:24 PM   #1566  
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From 2005:

SALES, RENTALS SLOWING AS DIGITAL DISC TURNS 8.

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Byline: Greg Hernandez Staff Writer

CENTURY CITY - In past years, The annual Home Entertainment Summit has been a backslapping affair filled with reports of gaudy DVD sales records and record revenues. But as the DVD turns 8, this year's gathering at the Century Plaza Hotel in Los Angeles on Tuesday had more sobering news, with sales and rentals of the discs slowing to single-digit growth for the first time.

"The boom time is over, the S-curve is here,'' said Steve Nickerson, Warner Home Video's senior vice president of market management.

According to the Digital Entertainment Group, sales of DVD software grew by 9.8 percent for the 12 months ending March 2005, with revenue up by $2.2 billion.

"There's a lot of wringing of hands that the market isn't growing by, like, 60 percent,'' said Peter Staddon, executive vice president of marketing for 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment. "Lots of markets would dream of that kind of growth. It's a matter of putting it in perspective.''

Staddon, who presented a U.S. market update at the conference, said in an interview that the industry needs to find ways to return to double-digit growth in order to remain robust in an age when nearly 85 percent of U.S. households will have at least one DVD player. "Now we're at the time we've got to rely not on hardware to hand us growth on a silver platter,'' Staddon said. "If we continue to provide great product, there's no reason why we can't propel market growth.''

While sales of new-release feature films have climbed by 12.1 percent, according to the DEG, it is TV on DVD sales that are booming, with a growth spurtgrowth spurt of 49.5 percent over the 12-month period. Additionally, catalog DVD titles sold nearly 31 percent more units than new-release DVDs.

"Catalog has just been phenomenal,'' said presenter Tom Adams "That has shifted the weight of the business somewhat.''

Most of the heads of the home entertainment divisions of the major studios were present for the final day of the high-profile event produced by Home Media Retailing Magazine.

But during a presidents' panel, they chose not speak publicly on the home video industry's hottest topic: high definition DVD, which has split the studios into two camps.

With rival formats, HD DVD and Blu-ray, both determined to move forward during the fourth quarter, many see a likely repeat of the disastrous VHS-Betamax wars of the 1980s.

"Y'all are crazy!'' Tower Records video executive Kevin Cassidy exclaimed when a panel discussion covered the format war.

Cassidy said competing formats would be "extremely problematic'' and would alienate consumers, who will need clear reasons to spend the money to upgrade their home theater systems.

Said Cassidy, "the idea that we would go back into a format war, we would have to explain it to consumers who are basically becoming their own creative directors.''
Home video execs were concerned about DVD peak and fall before Redbox even existed, because they were running out of catalog DVD to sell.

Last edited by mikemorel; 02-17-2012 at 12:28 PM..
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Old 02-17-2012, 12:47 PM   #1567  
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Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post
From 2005:

SALES, RENTALS SLOWING AS DIGITAL DISC TURNS 8.

Home video execs were concerned about DVD peak and fall before Redbox even existed, because they were running out of catalog DVD to sell.
That might be true except for the fact that Redbox already existed in 2005.

http://www.allbusiness.com/retail-tr.../405061-1.html
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Old 02-17-2012, 01:30 PM   #1568  
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Originally Posted by bombsnizzle View Post
1600. 1000 at McDonald's.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1985...-strong-growth

It's also when they starting testing their Walmart kiosks.

Do many people shop and eat at Walmart and McDonald's?

"As they move from 1,600 kiosks to 5,000 and then to eventually 10,000, it will be fascinating to watch the effect it has on the DVD industry."

The growth in Redbox helped usher in the fall of DVD sales.

I agree. But Netflix was around well before Redbox and well before DVD's peak. Netflix was around for the highs and the lows. Redbox mainly just the lows. Coincidence?

Netflix was around since 1999. Yet DVD still skyrocketed. Only when Redbox showed did DVD falter. Coincidence or cause/effect?

Either way it's undeniable Redbox had a huge impact on DVD sales. I mean - $1/night. Hard to beat.
Redbox's impact on DVD sales has been in the last couple of years, when they had a significant number of kiosks. They had very little impact on DVD sales back in 2006.

Redbox has been around since 2002 BTW - a time that DVD sales were growing.
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Old 02-17-2012, 02:31 PM   #1569  
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That might be true except for the fact that Redbox already existed in 2005.

http://www.allbusiness.com/retail-tr.../405061-1.html
At the end of 2005, (when purchased by Coinstar) they had only 1000 kiosks.

In March of 2007, there were only 2300 Redbox kiosks. In other words, non-existent. There are now 33,000 Redbox kiosks.

To attempt a tie the peak and decline of DVD in 2006 to Redbox is ridiculous.
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Old 02-17-2012, 02:32 PM   #1570  
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Redbox's impact on DVD sales has been in the last couple of years, when they had a significant number of kiosks. They had very little impact on DVD sales back in 2006.
Prove it. They had about 1600 kiosks by then. Best Buy had about 852 stores in the US in 2008.

So if 1600 Redbox kiosks had no impact what about 852 Best Buy's??

Prove to me 1600 locations renting DVDs for $1 didn't change people's minds about buying a DVD for $16.99. Good luck.

Quote:
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Redbox has been around since 2002 BTW - a time that DVD sales were growing.
They have existed as a company since 2002 - their first kiosks vended groceries.

Your argument for little impact can be made for 2002 - they had about 11 kiosks in the DC metro area. However, that argument cannot be applied in 2005, when they had about 1000 kiosks. A "store" with 1000 locations has an impact. 1000 kiosks in 2005 was more locations than Best Buy.

I don't get it - are you actually taking the position that Redbox has had no impact on DVD's decline? Exactly what are you arguing? Or are you just arguing? I am pretty sure you are wrong whatever you are trying to "prove".
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Old 02-17-2012, 02:34 PM   #1571  
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At the end of 2005, (when purchased by Coinstar) they had only 1000 kiosks.

In March of 2007, there were only 2300 Redbox kiosks. In other words, non-existent. There are now 33,000 Redbox kiosks.

To attempt a tie the peak and decline of DVD in 2006 to Redbox is ridiculous.
Even looking at kiosk revenues, it is clear that they became more of a force post-2008.

And now (including 2011) you can almost see a direct correlation of their impact on [email protected] rental.
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Old 02-17-2012, 02:39 PM   #1572  
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At the end of 2005, (when purchased by Coinstar) they had only 1000 kiosks.

In March of 2007, there were only 2300 Redbox kiosks. In other words, non-existent. There are now 33,000 Redbox kiosks.

To attempt a tie the peak and decline of DVD in 2006 to Redbox is ridiculous.
Best Buy had 852 store locations inthe US in 2008.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da...18349_110q.htm

Pretty sure Best Buy has an impact on the OD market right? With less locations than Redbox

Yet 1000 kiosks are impactless? Your argument is ridiculous.

Millions of people ate at McDonald's in 2005 in the US. Millions of those customers used Redbox for $1/night. Millions of those people didn't buy the DVD that they rented for $1 from Redbox in 2005.

2005 was the start - now in 2012 WB is so scared they have a 56 day embargo.
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Old 02-17-2012, 02:41 PM   #1573  
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Even looking at kiosk revenues, it is clear that they became more of a force post-2008.

And now (including 2011) you can almost see a direct correlation of their impact on [email protected] rental.
"More of a force" means they already had some force prior to 2008. So you agree with me then apparently.

Looking at revenue is skewed because they were renting for $1 when everyone else was $4/night. They would need way more machines and way more transactions to make a dent in 2005/2006.

But that doesn't mean they weren't disruptive - even early on.

The psychological impact was made on anyone that saw a Redbox even if they didn't use it - ONE DOLLAR. A thousand red machines offering DVD's for $1 is insignificant?

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Old 02-17-2012, 03:01 PM   #1574  
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At the end of 2005, (when purchased by Coinstar) they had only 1000 kiosks.

In March of 2007, there were only 2300 Redbox kiosks. In other words, non-existent. There are now 33,000 Redbox kiosks.

To attempt a tie the peak and decline of DVD in 2006 to Redbox is ridiculous.
Using this argument the iPod did not have an impact on the music market until they sold hundreds of millions of units years later.

In the beginning, when they sold "only" a million units they were "non-existent".

The iPod represented a shift from day one even if the $$ didn't say so. Everything has to start from somewhere.

The iPod made Apple what it is today - the iPod was the ground work for the iPhone and Apple then selling more and more laptops and now iPads. Now a cultural icon. The iPod started it all. But I bet no one foresaw that in 2001-2002.

Just like Redbox wasn't as scary in 2005. Doesn't mean they shouldn't have been. Look at them now. WB is plenty scared.

The iPod was a catalyst. So was Redbox. Even when sales didn't necessarily reflect it. They changed the game. Their mere introduction blew things up.

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Old 02-17-2012, 03:45 PM   #1575  
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Best Buy had 852 store locations inthe US in 2008.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da...18349_110q.htm

Pretty sure Best Buy has an impact on the OD market right? With less locations than Redbox

Yet 1000 kiosks are impactless? Your argument is ridiculous.

Millions of people ate at McDonald's in 2005 in the US. Millions of those customers used Redbox for $1/night. Millions of those people didn't buy the DVD that they rented for $1 from Redbox in 2005.

2005 was the start - now in 2012 WB is so scared they have a 56 day embargo.
LMAO! Utter nonsense! That you can compare a DVD kiosk to a Best Buy store just shows how desperate you are to not to admit that you are WRONG in your statements.

Try looking at Redbox's financials and see what their gross sales has been for the last 6 years (per year). THAT will tell you everything you need to know - not some half-assed bullshit comparison like you are making.
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