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Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

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Old 02-17-2012, 01:44 AM   #1546  
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I wasn't referring to any poll. You obviously agree with Kosty. Do you not? Correct me if I'm wrong. Do you not think Bluray will achieve 8 billion?
I have not thought about what Blu-ray will peak at for a long time. So it can't be obvious to you what I think. Why is it even important to the topic of January releases that bruce and I were trying to have?

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Cakefoo is the only guy I know that can cry and accuse people of attacks and tell people to grow up. And then attack and act like a child on the same page. LOL!
Who diverged from the topic and started discussing posters first? Mike, then you and chip. 3 strikes against you guys, none against me. The accusation I changed my tune about releases, based on an irrelevant poll, is a fabrication from mike that you and chip eagerly obeyed without hestation. All in lieu of a direct and logic response to the topic I was discussing with Bruce.
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Old 02-17-2012, 09:29 AM   #1547  
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If you want a circle jerk go back to HDD then.
That's what I'm wondering. He seems very upset that we can finally dish it out without fear of major retaliation by the Powers That Be over on that other forum. He was obviously able to get away with it, but we were not.

Always love looking back at these old polls. You, Silverado and myself were pretty much spot on. Maybe even a bit optimistic. Blu-ray is already peaking or close to it. I suspect lots of DVD delays and such to get that number artificially higher.
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Old 02-17-2012, 09:33 AM   #1548  
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I have not thought about what Blu-ray will peak at for a long time. So it can't be obvious to you what I think. Why is it even important to the topic of January releases that bruce and I were trying to have?

Who diverged from the topic and started discussing posters first? Mike, then you and chip. 3 strikes against you guys, none against me. The accusation I changed my tune about releases, based on an irrelevant poll, is a fabrication from mike that you and chip eagerly obeyed without hestation. All in lieu of a direct and logic response to the topic I was discussing with Bruce.
Bullshit. How can you not think of what Bluray will peak at? It's a major topic here and the former smackdown. You continue to accuse people of things and then do exactly those things. Stop being a hipocrite and participate. Then maybe I can take your posts seriously.
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Old 02-17-2012, 09:48 AM   #1549  
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How can you not think of what Bluray will peak at?
I'd say somewhere between MORE than HD DVD () but less than DVD.
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Old 02-17-2012, 09:56 AM   #1550  
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Even if Blu-ray peaks at $6 billion, and we're not even halfway there with growth slowing down to a crawl, it would be less than 1/2 of VHS peak and 1/3 of DVD's peak. I think Blu-ray will probably peak around $4-5 billion the way things are going now. Digital, if it takes hold via UV, will be cannibalizing from OD, further limiting its growth potential.
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Old 02-17-2012, 09:56 AM   #1551  
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I'd say somewhere between MORE than HD DVD () but less than DVD.
That would be a safe guess.
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Old 02-17-2012, 10:04 AM   #1552  
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Looks like I was optimistic in that poll. When was it taken?
September 2011. Only five months ago.

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Blu-ray in 2011 was $2.15 billion sell through plus rental. In 2010 rental was $500 million, but unfortunately for 2011 the DEG didn't give any breakdown for Blu-ray rental. I would guess between $600 and $700 million, so using the average of those 2 guesses, that would put the total revenue at around $2.8 billion. It obviously has a long way to go to get to $6 billion.
Thanks.

I thought Kosty might have had some data behind his $3 billion guesstimate.
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Old 02-17-2012, 10:08 AM   #1553  
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Even if Blu-ray peaks at $6 billion, and we're not even halfway there with growth slowing down to a crawl, it would be less than 1/2 of VHS peak and 1/3 of DVD's peak. I think Blu-ray will probably peak around $4-5 billion the way things are going now. Digital, if it takes hold via UV, will be cannibalizing from OD, further limiting its growth potential.
Nothing is ever going to match DVD. It was lightning in a bottle.

Rental services and prices have forever impacted ownership.

DVD would not have been nearly as successful if Redbox was renting DVDs for $1 from 1997-2004.

It is no coincidence the downfall of peak DVD coincided with the introduction of Redbox.
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Old 02-17-2012, 10:20 AM   #1554  
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Nothing is ever going to match DVD. It was lightning in a bottle.

Rental services and prices have forever impacted ownership.

DVD would not have been nearly as successful if Redbox was renting DVDs for $1 from 1997-2004.

It is no coincidence the downfall of peak DVD coincided with the introduction of Redbox.
That's easy and convenient to say now isn't it? Especially when half those polled at smackdown thought Bluray would do as well or better than DVD. And considering there were many HDDVD supporters at that sight? I'm going to guess a majority of those that voted like that were Bluray fanboys like yourself. That's why I laugh at the change of tunes I see with no admission of how wrong you guys were.
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Old 02-17-2012, 10:20 AM   #1555  
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Thanks for this detail sir..
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Old 02-17-2012, 10:29 AM   #1556  
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Originally Posted by bombsnizzle View Post
Nothing is ever going to match DVD. It was lightning in a bottle.

Rental services and prices have forever impacted ownership.

DVD would not have been nearly as successful if Redbox was renting DVDs for $1 from 1997-2004.

It is no coincidence the downfall of peak DVD coincided with the introduction of Redbox.
Redbox rentals are a factor, but I don't think it's the main factor. Here are some others:

1) saturation of the market (the biggest factor). DVDs are everywhere, including unwatched in shrink wrap in people's homes

2) price erosion due to the above. Titles are underselling, resulting in more clearance pricing, which negatively affects revenue.

3) Introduction of a superior format. This would affect DVD by firstly devaluing the product, as it is now a second best product, and also by discouraging consumers from buying a format that was rendered technically obsolete after just 9 years. Many won't make the same mistake with Blu-ray.

4) The economy (which is now starting to slowly recover)

5) Bit torrents and cheaper internet alternatives

6) streaming and other more "convenient" ways to choose and watch a movie

7) the introduction (or increased use) of very addictive time hog pastimes, such as facebook, the internet in general, and gaming.

Last edited by bruceames; 02-17-2012 at 10:34 AM..
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Old 02-17-2012, 10:36 AM   #1557  
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That's easy and convenient to say now isn't it?
Yes hindsight is easier than predicting the future.

I bet you predicted the economic collapse of 2008 too.

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Especially when half those polled at smackdown thought Bluray would do as well or better than DVD.
So a forum for high definition enthusiasts was bullish about high definition sales? Imagine that.

HD DVD was supposed to be the TRUE successor to DVD - by birth rite and name. How'd that work out??

Much better to be wrong about format sales than to be wrong about the format itself.

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That's why I laugh at the change of tunes I see with no admission of how wrong you guys were.
Once again, I'd be more embarrassed having picked the losing format than to have picked wrong with regards to $6B vs $2B.

But hey, you guys are making a mountain of a molehill.

Some couldn't even pick the right format - what gives you right to criticize a whiff on sales numbers? Some thought a now DEAD format would selling billions of dollars. Talk about being wrong...
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Old 02-17-2012, 10:38 AM   #1558  
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Originally Posted by bombsnizzle View Post
Nothing is ever going to match DVD. It was lightning in a bottle.

Rental services and prices have forever impacted ownership.

DVD would not have been nearly as successful if Redbox was renting DVDs for $1 from 1997-2004.

It is no coincidence the downfall of peak DVD coincided with the introduction of Redbox.
Redbox's popularity came long after DVD peaked.
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Old 02-17-2012, 10:43 AM   #1559  
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Redbox's popularity came long after DVD peaked.
Redbox started around DVD's peak. Or are you going to argue that?

Either way it helped DVD's decline. Or are you going to argue that?
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Old 02-17-2012, 10:48 AM   #1560  
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Redbox started around DVD's peak. Or are you going to argue that?
Sure - tell me the number of kiosks Redbox had at the end of 2006 - the year that DVD peaked.

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Either way it helped DVD's decline. Or are you going to argue that?
Nope - but you have to include Netflix too. Or are you going to argue THAT?
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