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Old 02-15-2012, 11:01 AM   #1516  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
If last year's numbers are adjusted down, it would have the opposite effect of making this year's number's look better. Sometimes I think that's the reason why they are adjusted downwards. After all, why are they always adjusted downwards and rarely (if ever) upwards? Can't be a coincidence.

As for BLu-ray peaking, I think it's getting close, but it still has a lot of DVD to feed off of, so it might be a few more years of slow growth. But it's really amazing when you think about it, that after the better part of 6 years, Blu-ray still has less than a 25% market share. I'll bet no one would have predicted that.
Ya, I thought that the revision of numbers this year would make last year look worse. So we should see everything stay the same with sell through, sounds good.
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Old 02-15-2012, 07:44 PM   #1517  
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Top 20 tables aren't up yet, but according to HMM, Twilight: Breaking Dawn had only a 25% Blu-ray. That seems pretty low considering the last installment did 23% over a year ago. I thought it would get 28-30%, considering the standard Blu-ray linear market share growth of 6% (or thereabouts) per year.

Also it wasn't even the top title for Blu-ray. Lady and the Tramp was. Surprising a catalog could beat out such a hot new release (of course only Disney catalogs are capable of such a feat), so it looks like it may be a pretty good week for Blu-ray.

Last edited by bruceames; 02-15-2012 at 07:48 PM..
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Old 02-15-2012, 11:37 PM   #1518  
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It should have been a HUGE week for blu-ray. I see this as a major dissapointment to only have 25% of a HUGE title for blu-ray. Guess dvd is good enough afterall.
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Old 02-16-2012, 03:14 AM   #1519  
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This years TBO is more than 20% higher than last year (YTD). That is not close. Indeed, if it was down more than 20% you would be touting that as the excuse for Blu-ray weakness.


BD growth is actually TRAILING TBO lead-in strength. Spin away as you must, but don't expect others to ignore the facts.
So what you're saying is that if a box office lead-in is $2M in 2012 vs $1M in 2011, that means Blu-ray as an entire format needs to do 100% growth that week in order to keep up with the BO?
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Old 02-16-2012, 04:59 AM   #1520  
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For some perspective.. H1 last year had a 16.1% drop in box office lead-in. At the time, Kosty was spinning like a top about the impact of a 16.1% delta in box office lead-in as an excuse for BD sell through weakness in H1.

And now he is spinning that a >20% increase in TBO lead-in is not significant? Please.
Box office power matters, but more importantly, RELEASES matter. What's the difference? Box office power only takes into account movies released in January that had a box office presence. December home video releases, limited theatrical releases, DTV releases, and catalog releases don't add to the BO power tally. If they did 2011 would be far more even with 2012 in terms of release strength. Also, there were a couple 2012 BO releases (Courageous and Paranormal Activity 3) that were in genres that either don't convert well to Blu-ray (courageous) or don't sell as much in proportion to their bo on home video period (Paranormal Activity)

Last edited by cakefoo; 02-16-2012 at 05:07 AM..
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Old 02-16-2012, 07:17 AM   #1521  
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Box office power matters, but more importantly, RELEASES matter.
Only when format growth slows to a crawl. When catalog sales dry up. When you give up the dream that consumers buying blu-ray players would replace their disc libraries with blu-ray, the new release market is all that is left. Which means demand for the format peaks sooner, at a much lower revenue.

Quote:
December home video releases, limited theatrical releases, DTV releases, and catalog releases don't add to the BO power tally.
Cakefoo and Kosty have changed their arguments.

Last September, Kosty believed that blu-ray would hit "more than $8 billion in sales+rentals". Don't know how that will happen, unless studios stop selling DVD, instead bundling DVD with BD. But then the format they are selling ceases to be called blu-ray; it becomes "BVD(TM)", a term I just coined, after Bradley, Voorhees & Day, the underwear manufacturer.

In 2008, cakefoo (and others) thought that blu-ray would begin to exceed TOTAL DVD sales in 2011. Didn't happen, because consumers aren't replacing their libraries with blu-ray. Now he is concentrating on new releases.



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Old 02-16-2012, 07:56 AM   #1522  
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Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
Top 20 tables aren't up yet, but according to HMM, Twilight: Breaking Dawn had only a 25% Blu-ray. That seems pretty low considering the last installment did 23% over a year ago. I thought it would get 28-30%, considering the standard Blu-ray linear market share growth of 6% (or thereabouts) per year.

Also it wasn't even the top title for Blu-ray. Lady and the Tramp was. Surprising a catalog could beat out such a hot new release (of course only Disney catalogs are capable of such a feat), so it looks like it may be a pretty good week for Blu-ray.
A few things to consider. For this week the wholesale price for the Twilight release was considerably higher than it was in the past and both the DVD version and the Blu-ray versions were not as heavily discounted as in the past and especially as much as the last release in December 2010.

There was also a larger price disparity this last week between the Blu-ray and the DVD versions. At my local retailers I saw a $10 to $12 difference in price last weekend between the DVD and Blu-ray versions and neither sku was heavily discounted as in the past.

Summit/Lionsgate kept the wholesale price higher and retailers it seemed did not feel they had to discount much to have the rate of sales they wanted. So the amount of units DVD sold and the Blu-ray units sold will generate more revenue and profitable income for the studio and retailer than if they were discounted.

Twilight Franchise Nielsen Videoscan first alert release week reported Blu-ray unit marketshares


25.00% for Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part I (Feb 2012) release week

22.67% for Twilight: Eclipse (Dec 2010)

17.00% for Twilight: New Moon (Mar 2010)

7.00% for Twilight (Mar 2009)


http://forums.highdefdigest.com/high...ml#post1884501

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/high...ml#post2076618

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/high...ml#post1484238


Finally, the seasonality of the release may also have affected the marketshare split as well between DVD and Blu-ray. The earlier release in Feb 2012 here was designed to match the romantic female orientated nature of the storyline with Valentines Day and that's a different dynamic than Easter or Christmas release times.
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Old 02-16-2012, 08:08 AM   #1523  
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Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post
Only when format growth slows to a crawl. When catalog sales dry up. When you give up the dream that consumers buying blu-ray players would replace their disc libraries with blu-ray, the new release market is all that is left. Which means demand for the format peaks sooner, at a much lower revenue.

Cakefoo and Kosty have changed their arguments.

Last September, Kosty believed that blu-ray would hit "more than $8 billion in sales+rentals". Don't know how that will happen, unless studios stop selling DVD, instead bundling DVD with BD. But then the format they are selling ceases to be called blu-ray; it becomes "BVD(TM)", a term I just coined, after Bradley, Voorhees & Day, the underwear manufacturer.

In 2008, cakefoo (and others) thought that blu-ray would begin to exceed TOTAL DVD sales in 2011. Didn't happen, because consumers aren't replacing their libraries with blu-ray. Now he is concentrating on new releases.




Err. Blu-ray still is growing in both sales and rental revenues.

Nice of you to assume something will not happen in the future that has not happened yet. We shall see.

Last year Blu-ray was about $3 billion in total sell through and rental and was growing in marketshare for both new releases and older titles. $8 Billion in total Blu-ray sell through and rental revenues may not be as impossible in future years as you might think.

Cakefoo was also not also talking about total annual sales in that example anyway. He was talking a single week when he that prediction back in 2008. Last year in 2008 Blu-ray did achieve weeks where it did get above 40% revenue marketshare for total revenues and routinely now gets over 50% revenue marketshare for top 20 sellers. That's better than your general predictions from 2008.


Consumers will never replace all of their DVD purchases with Blu-ray versions. That's what it would take for Blu-ray sales to ever be as large as DVD sales were. I certainly nor cakefoo never thought that would happen.

But Blu-ray will continue to increase marketshare for new releases and extend that profitable new release revenue stream into the future and Blu-ray catalog sales and the base weekly rate of Blu-ray routine sales will continue to grow into the future as the Blu-ray user base expands in household penetration and Blu-ray continues to displace DVD inventory at retail.
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Old 02-16-2012, 08:14 AM   #1524  
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Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post
Only when format growth slows to a crawl. When catalog sales dry up. When you give up the dream that consumers buying blu-ray players would replace their disc libraries with blu-ray, the new release market is all that is left. Which means demand for the format peaks sooner, at a much lower revenue.

Cakefoo and Kosty have changed their arguments.

Last September, Kosty believed that blu-ray would hit "more than $8 billion in sales+rentals". Don't know how that will happen, unless studios stop selling DVD, instead bundling DVD with BD. But then the format they are selling ceases to be called blu-ray; it becomes "BVD(TM)", a term I just coined, after Bradley, Voorhees & Day, the underwear manufacturer.

In 2008, cakefoo (and others) thought that blu-ray would begin to exceed TOTAL DVD sales in 2011. Didn't happen, because consumers aren't replacing their libraries with blu-ray. Now he is concentrating on new releases.




Err. Blu-ray still is growing in both sales and rental revenues.

Nice of you to assume something will not happen in the future that has not happened yet. We shall see.

Last year Blu-ray was about $3 billion in total sell through and rental and was growing in marketshare for both new releases and older titles. $8 Billion in total Blu-ray sell through and rental revenues may not be as impossible in future years as you might think.

We shall see in the future whether or not my guess of $8 Billion for sell through and rental income is more accurate than the smaller guesses of some of the routine posters here.

Cakefoo was also not also talking about total annual sales in that example anyway. He was talking a single week when he that prediction back in 2008. Last year in 2008 Blu-ray did achieve weeks where it did get above 40% revenue marketshare for total revenues and routinely now gets over 50% revenue marketshare for top 20 sellers. That's better than your general predictions from 2008. 2011 already saw peaks in that metric of 40.2% and 38.9% in that metric so its possible we may see weeks in 2012 that meet or exceed that amount. Which would not be bad for a guess made in 2008 by cakefoo.

Cakefoo's guess there is probably going to be more accurate than Malanthius's guess of never for the same poll.


Consumers will never replace all of their DVD purchases with Blu-ray versions. That's what it would take for Blu-ray sales to ever be as large as DVD sales were. I certainly nor cakefoo never thought that would happen.

But Blu-ray will continue to increase marketshare for new releases and extend that profitable new release revenue stream into the future and Blu-ray catalog sales and the base weekly rate of Blu-ray routine sales will continue to grow into the future as the Blu-ray user base expands in household penetration and Blu-ray continues to displace DVD inventory at retail.

Last edited by Kosty; 02-16-2012 at 08:17 AM..
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Old 02-16-2012, 08:43 AM   #1525  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
A few things to consider. For this week the wholesale price for the Twilight release was considerably higher than it was in the past and both the DVD version and the Blu-ray versions were not as heavily discounted as in the past and especially as much as the last release in December 2010.

There was also a larger price disparity this last week between the Blu-ray and the DVD versions. At my local retailers I saw a $10 to $12 difference in price last weekend between the DVD and Blu-ray versions and neither sku was heavily discounted as in the past.

Summit/Lionsgate kept the wholesale price higher and retailers it seemed did not feel they had to discount much to have the rate of sales they wanted. So the amount of units DVD sold and the Blu-ray units sold will generate more revenue and profitable income for the studio and retailer than if they were discounted.

Twilight Franchise Nielsen Videoscan first alert release week reported Blu-ray unit marketshares


25.00% for Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part I (Feb 2012) release week

22.67% for Twilight: Eclipse (Dec 2010)

17.00% for Twilight: New Moon (Mar 2010)

7.00% for Twilight (Mar 2009)


http://forums.highdefdigest.com/high...ml#post1884501

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/high...ml#post2076618

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/high...ml#post1484238


Finally, the seasonality of the release may also have affected the marketshare split as well between DVD and Blu-ray. The earlier release in Feb 2012 here was designed to match the romantic female orientated nature of the storyline with Valentines Day and that's a different dynamic than Easter or Christmas release times.
Of course a wider than normal (around $5) price differential would affect the market share, as it did here. And remember that works both ways. When it's only a couple of bucks, the Blu-ray share is going to be higher than it otherwise would be.

A higher unit price doesn't necessarily translate into more revenue and greater profits. The opposite can equally be true, but it looks like the higher selling prices may have paid off this time. It's a double-edged sword though, price it too high and unit sales will suffer.

Seasonality is a factor of course when you time horror releases around halloween, Christmas movies around Christmas, romantic or chic flick (such as Twilight) movies around Valentines day, war movies around Father's day, etc. I meant seasonality in the sense of releasing a movie in Q4 vs. the rest of the year, without any of those other factors at play.

Last edited by bruceames; 02-16-2012 at 08:52 AM..
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Old 02-16-2012, 09:30 AM   #1526  
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
Last year Blu-ray was about $3 billion in total sell through and rental and was growing in marketshare for both new releases and older titles. $8 Billion in total Blu-ray sell through and rental revenues may not be as impossible in future years as you might think.
How does blu-ray get to $8 billion in sales+rentals? Even at a 20% compounded growth rate in sales, blu-ray only gets to $4.5 billion in sales by 2015. And studios are trying like hell to kill rentals.

Quote:
Cakefoo was also not also talking about total annual sales in that example anyway. He was talking a single week when he that prediction back in 2008.
Read what I wrote. I said "In 2008, cakefoo (and others) thought that blu-ray would begin to exceed TOTAL DVD sales in 2011". Winning a single sales week implies blu-ray BEGINNING to exceed total DVD sales.

Quote:
Last year in 2008 Blu-ray did achieve weeks where it did get above 40% revenue marketshare for total revenues and routinely now gets over 50% revenue marketshare for top 20 sellers. That's better than your general predictions from 2008.
Like I said, for you it is now all about new releases. And I don't believe I made any predictions about blu-ray sales back in 2008.

Quote:
Consumers will never replace all of their DVD purchases with Blu-ray versions. That's what it would take for Blu-ray sales to ever be as large as DVD sales were. I certainly nor cakefoo never thought that would happen.
So, you still think blu-ray sales will get to "more than $8 billion" by DEG, in the US?

Quote:
But Blu-ray will continue to increase marketshare for new releases and extend that profitable new release revenue stream into the future and Blu-ray catalog sales and the base weekly rate of Blu-ray routine sales will continue to grow into the future as the Blu-ray user base expands in household penetration and Blu-ray continues to displace DVD inventory at retail.
You just said - nothing.

I guessed in a recent poll that blu-ray would achieve 7%-15% growth this year, assuming studios don't take to selling "BVD". That would be between $2.3 billion and $2.5 billion in DEG sell through in 2012. At the beginning of last year, you "expected" $3 billion in sell through - FOR 2011!

View Poll Results: What will Blu-ray sell through growth be in 2012?

What do you see blu-ray achieving for sell through in 2012? After all, if $8 billion in sales+rental is "not impossible", then blu-ray needs to start moving, THIS YEAR. In leaps and bounds.

What do you expect for blu-ray, in numbers for 2012. I told you what I expect.

Last edited by mikemorel; 02-16-2012 at 09:36 AM..
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Old 02-16-2012, 09:44 AM   #1527  
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Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post
Only when format growth slows to a crawl. When catalog sales dry up. When you give up the dream that consumers buying blu-ray players would replace their disc libraries with blu-ray, the new release market is all that is left. Which means demand for the format peaks sooner, at a much lower revenue.

Cakefoo and Kosty have changed their arguments.

Last September, Kosty believed that blu-ray would hit "more than $8 billion in sales+rentals". Don't know how that will happen, unless studios stop selling DVD, instead bundling DVD with BD. But then the format they are selling ceases to be called blu-ray; it becomes "BVD(TM)", a term I just coined, after Bradley, Voorhees & Day, the underwear manufacturer.

In 2008, cakefoo (and others) thought that blu-ray would begin to exceed TOTAL DVD sales in 2011. Didn't happen, because consumers aren't replacing their libraries with blu-ray. Now he is concentrating on new releases.



Yep. These guys have changed thier tunes. And they hope no one notices. I also love Kostys cute PR lines like "Bluray continues to grow". How does someone become so delusional that they actually think more than 8 billion is still possible knowing what they know? Blurays growth is slowing to a near standstill. It may even peak this year. I don't know if I should feel sad or laugh at these guys.
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Old 02-16-2012, 09:54 AM   #1528  
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Yep. These guys have changed thier tunes. And they hope no one notices. I also love Kostys cute PR lines like "Bluray continues to grow". How does someone become so delusional that they actually think more than 8 billion is still possible knowing what they know? Blurays growth is slowing to a near standstill. It may even peak this year. I don't know if I should feel sad or laugh at these guys.
I'm constantly amazed how right we were and how utterly wrong they continue to be. But hey, were just pessimistic!
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Old 02-16-2012, 12:08 PM   #1529  
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What do you expect from people who are here to promote a product?
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Old 02-16-2012, 01:50 PM   #1530  
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Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post
Only when format growth slows to a crawl. When catalog sales dry up. When you give up the dream that consumers buying blu-ray players would replace their disc libraries with blu-ray, the new release market is all that is left. Which means demand for the format peaks sooner, at a much lower revenue.
What? I didn't say anything contrary, I said that in the short period in question compared to january 2011, catalog, dtv and limited theatrical to home video overperformers in 2011 were stronger and negate part of the box office advantage of 2012.

Quote:
Cakefoo and Kosty have changed their arguments
Oh, great relevant response! Save it. I thought that Blu-ray would follow a similar growth curve as DVD or thereabouts. it didn't, does that make me wrong about what I said above? Or are you just saying things because it's what you do here at highdefforum- attack people? That's cool and grownup.
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