Optical (Blu-ray/DVD) and Digital (EST/UV) Sales Thread

chipvideo · 11-09-2011, 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruceames

The latest Nielsen First Alert DVD top 20 sales are up, for week ending 11/6. Note in the chart that 3D sales are being isolated out for the first time. Cars 2 had a 17% 3D share, which is for OD. Since Blu-ray had a 47% share for the title, then the 3D share of the Blu-ray SKUs is 17/47 = 36.1%. That's pretty high considering the low adoption rate of 3D so far. The high percentage can only be explained in that there were a lot of future-proof sales, which is understandable considering that at about only $5 more, the 3D SKU represents the best value (and especially so with Disney titles that also include the digital copy and more special features as an exclusive to the 3D sku).

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-110611

In the BLu-ray chart, note that Captain America was only 18.8% of what Cars 2 did. It looks like either Cars 2 either did much better than CA, or that CA tanked in week 2(or a combination of both).

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-110611

I bet its a little of both.

PSound · 11-09-2011, 09:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruceames

The latest Nielsen First Alert DVD top 20 sales are up, for week ending 11/6. Note in the chart that 3D sales are being isolated out for the first time. Cars 2 had a 17% 3D share, which is for OD. Since Blu-ray had a 47% share for the title, then the 3D share of the Blu-ray SKUs is 17/47 = 36.1%. That's pretty high considering the low adoption rate of 3D so far. The high percentage can only be explained in that there were a lot of future-proof sales, which is understandable considering that at about only $5 more, the 3D SKU represents the best value (and especially so with Disney titles that also include the digital copy and more special features as an exclusive to the 3D sku).

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-110611

In the BLu-ray chart, note that Captain America was only 18.8% of what Cars 2 did. It looks like either Cars 2 either did much better than CA, or that CA tanked in week 2(or a combination of both).

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-110611

I was taking a look at that ratio split.

I agree that either Captain America saw a ~70% decline in the 2nd week (which would still be a good week for Cars 2), or Cars 2 had a phenomenal launch week.

This one is going to be interesting!

What was last year like when Toy Story 3 was released?

**bruceames** · 11-09-2011, 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PSound

I was taking a look at that ratio split.

I agree that either Captain America saw a ~70% decline in the 2nd week (which would still be a good week for Cars 2), or Cars 2 had a phenomenal launch week.

This one is going to be interesting!

What was last year like when Toy Story 3 was released?

Actually a 70% decline is about the average. If that was the case, then Cars 2 unit sales (inflated Numbers units) would be well over 2 million. But I'm guessing that the attrition for top selling titles is greater than the norm. Pirates 4 decline, assuming the DVD figures will translate proportionally according to Nielsen First Alert, would be around 77%. So if we use that as the model for CA, then Cars 2 sales would be around 1.87 million, which is still greater than either Pirates 4 or Captain America.

I don't remember what Toy Story's sales were, I wasn't keeping track back then. I know it did pretty well though.

**bruceames** · 11-09-2011, 09:55 PM

Jurassic Park only did 1.66% of Cars 2, which using the relatively conservative estimate above of 1.86 million for Cars 2, is about 30k units, which is just over 20% of the estimated 146k units* sold in week 1. Note that Jurassic Park already fell below Star Wars.

**bruceames** · 11-09-2011, 10:09 PM

According to The-Numbers, Toy Story 3 DVD did 3.86 million. Nielson First Alert reported a 33% Blu-ray share, so that would put BD sales at around 1.9 million. The next highest Blu-ray title was The Pacific, at only 8.37% of TS3. So it dwarfed the field that week.

PSound · 11-09-2011, 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruceames

According to The-Numbers, Toy Story 3 DVD did 3.86 million. Nielson First Alert reported a 33% Blu-ray share, so that would put BD sales at around 1.9 million. The next highest Blu-ray title was The Pacific, at only 8.37% of TS3. So it dwarfed the field that week.

Thanks again for pulling that info together!

Cars 2 doing around the same volume as Toy Story 3 would be a significant plus for Blu-ray. I certainly would not have predicted that.

OD will be down quite a bit by comparison, but if Cars 2 does pull off ~1.9 million BD units, it may mean BD could be up as much as 27% at EOY.

**bruceames** · 11-09-2011, 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PSound

Thanks again for pulling that info together!

Cars 2 doing around the same volume as Toy Story 3 would be a significant plus for Blu-ray. I certainly would not have predicted that.

OD will be down quite a bit by comparison, but if Cars 2 does pull off ~1.9 million BD units, it may mean BD could be up as much as 27% at EOY.

Well keep in mind that the BD shares are much higher this year than last year, so a lesser BD title will sell as well as a top BD title last year...at the expense of DVD.

Cars 2 BD did 47%, so if it sold 1.86 million units, then the dvd sold about 2.1 million, for a total of just under 4 million. Toy Story 3 sold about 5.75 million in week 1. Disney may be satisfied with the sales though, considering that Cars 2 was not critically acclaimed like TS3.

chipvideo · 11-09-2011, 11:48 PM

Cars 2 is also a Eyecandy Demo Disc everyone should have.

mikemorel · 11-10-2011, 06:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruceames

According to The-Numbers, Toy Story 3 DVD did 3.86 million. Nielson First Alert reported a 33% Blu-ray share, so that would put BD sales at around 1.9 million. The next highest Blu-ray title was The Pacific, at only 8.37% of TS3. So it dwarfed the field that week.

That is a mistake - trusting The-Numbers data for anything whatsoever.

The-Numbers blu-ray data for the top ten titles on Captain America week comes to $79 million.

That's just the top ten. HMM came in at $50 million for ALL blu-ray revenue. The-Numbers numbers get more outlandish as the 4th quarter progresses.

The-Numbers "data" is C.S. Trowbridge simply guessing, with a strong OD bias. There is no research there. I can't imagine anyone who would actually pay for their numbers.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruceames

Well keep in mind that the BD shares are much higher this year than last year, so a lesser BD title will sell as well as a top BD title last year...at the expense of DVD.

Cars 2 BD did 47%, so if it sold 1.86 million units, then the dvd sold about 2.1 million, for a total of just under 4 million. Toy Story 3 sold about 5.75 million in week 1. Disney may be satisfied with the sales though, considering that Cars 2 was not critically acclaimed like TS3.

Toy Story 3 was a year ago. Blu-ray is fighting some strong headwinds that degrade sales growth every year.

mikemorel · 11-10-2011, 06:56 AM

Another interesting factoid from this weeks "The-Numbers" top 10...

Total blu-ray sales for those 10 titles comes to $254.4 million...

That is 18.4% of ALL blu-ray sales for 2011 so far. Ridiculous.

**bruceames** · 11-10-2011, 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikemorel

That is a mistake - trusting The-Numbers data for anything whatsoever.

The-Numbers blu-ray data for the top ten titles on Captain America week comes to $79 million.

That's just the top ten. HMM came in at $50 million for ALL blu-ray revenue. The-Numbers numbers get more outlandish as the 4th quarter progresses.

The-Numbers "data" is C.S. Trowbridge simply guessing, with a strong OD bias. There is no research there. I can't imagine anyone who would actually pay for their numbers.

Toy Story 3 was a year ago. Blu-ray is fighting some strong headwinds that degrade sales growth every year.

I agree with you Mike, that's what I've been trying point out myself. I was just using them as point of reference to each other, but perhaps even that is not a good idea...

However it's not just Trowbridge guessing, because the BLu-ray numbers are simply scaled (using Nielsen ratios) off the DVD numbers. Generally the correlation to the ratios of their units and the Nielsen ratios are within 1% on most weeks, so basically when you know their DVD numbers, then you know their Blu-ray numbers as well (to within a few percent).

It's just that their high data gets exposed on Blu-ray data because it has a low ceiling compared to DVD and most of their sales are in the top 10 anyway (probably about 2/3 my guess). The last 8 weeks The-Numbers top 10 Blu-ray have been higher than HMM (all Blu-ray) by an average of 31%, and this latest week has the difference higher than ever at 56%. It's a joke, but the exaggeration starts with DVD.

**bruceames** · 11-10-2011, 04:56 PM

A few notes on the average cost per title in the above chart.

1) generally The-Numbers estimates on average cost are high, but to a lesser extent than on unit estimates.

2) in the above table, Captain America average price paid is $25.97, which seems a little high. Even when you account for 3D sales, which were probably no more than 15% of Blu-ray, it appears to be a dollar or two high.

3) Winnie the Pooh ($28.28), Jurassic Park ($61.92), Green Lantern ($28.99) and Thor ($31.99) are all high by perhaps 20% or so.

4) My guess right now is that the average price paid is about 10% high, as a whole, and that units sold estimates are probably 30-50% high.

PSound · 11-14-2011, 06:20 PM

Looks like Cars 2 ended up with good BD share, but did not really drive OD sales:

**bruceames** · 11-14-2011, 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PSound

Looks like Cars 2 ended up with good BD share, but did not really drive OD sales:

Not that great of a week really, up only 2%. Understandable though, going up against Toy Story 3. After next week the comparisons will be even more unfriendly.

PSound · 11-14-2011, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruceames

Not that great of a week really, up only 2%. Understandable though, going up against Toy Story 3. After next week the comparisons will be even more unfriendly.

Yep.

Next week should be up BIG.

Then it gets tough.

11-10-2011, 06:56 AM	#145
mikemorel High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 884	Another interesting factoid from this weeks "The-Numbers" top 10... Total blu-ray sales for those 10 titles comes to $254.4 million... That is 18.4% of ALL blu-ray sales for 2011 so far. Ridiculous. Last edited by mikemorel; 11-10-2011 at 07:00 AM..

11-09-2011, 09:55 PM	#139
bruceames Super Moderator Thread Starter Join Date: May 2006 Location: Novato, CA Posts: 17,128	Jurassic Park only did 1.66% of Cars 2, which using the relatively conservative estimate above of 1.86 million for Cars 2, is about 30k units, which is just over 20% of the estimated 146k units* sold in week 1. Note that Jurassic Park already fell below Star Wars.

11-09-2011, 10:09 PM	#140
bruceames Super Moderator Thread Starter Join Date: May 2006 Location: Novato, CA Posts: 17,128	According to The-Numbers, Toy Story 3 DVD did 3.86 million. Nielson First Alert reported a 33% Blu-ray share, so that would put BD sales at around 1.9 million. The next highest Blu-ray title was The Pacific, at only 8.37% of TS3. So it dwarfed the field that week.

11-09-2011, 11:48 PM	#143
chipvideo Steelbook Addict Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 678	Cars 2 is also a Eyecandy Demo Disc everyone should have.

11-10-2011, 04:56 PM	#147
bruceames Super Moderator Thread Starter Join Date: May 2006 Location: Novato, CA Posts: 17,128	A few notes on the average cost per title in the above chart. 1) generally The-Numbers estimates on average cost are high, but to a lesser extent than on unit estimates. 2) in the above table, Captain America average price paid is $25.97, which seems a little high. Even when you account for 3D sales, which were probably no more than 15% of Blu-ray, it appears to be a dollar or two high. 3) Winnie the Pooh ($28.28), Jurassic Park ($61.92), Green Lantern ($28.99) and Thor ($31.99) are all high by perhaps 20% or so. 4) My guess right now is that the average price paid is about 10% high, as a whole, and that units sold estimates are probably 30-50% high.

11-14-2011, 06:20 PM	#148
PSound High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 1,749	Looks like Cars 2 ended up with good BD share, but did not really drive OD sales: