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Scenario of how HD DVD wins format war quickly!

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Old 04-04-2007, 11:32 AM   #106
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When it comes to who has the advantage in the format war, I don't think it is as simple to calculate as described. One, just because one consultant says that 1 and 5 PS3 is connected to an HDTV does not mean their data is accurate. Two, even if inaccurate, people without HDTVs may in some cases still be buying BR movies (because they plan to upgrade soon, and don't want to have to buy the movies again when they do get an HDTV). The best indication of who is winning the format war is total disk sales in each format, which currently BR is winning hands down, although in all fairness, let's see if those sales numbers continue.

Also, SD-DVD is not going away any time soon, regardless of whether one of the HD formats drops out of the race. Until everyone owns HDTVs, there will continue to be a large market of buyers who will only be buying SD-DVD. For that reason, price of the player is not the biggest obstacle of an HD format replacing DVD.
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Old 04-04-2007, 11:36 AM   #107
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It is based on a simple set of marketing/financial ratios called the "Law of diminishing returns". Here is a link to an explaination:

http://www.cr1.dircon.co.uk/TB/2/dreturns.htm

At the present higher prices for the combos they are not selling as well. This is pretty much a given I think. Of course the studios want to sell the movies at the highest price they can, but doing that has hurt sales and overall profit on those movies released in combo form with the higher pricing structure. Universal seems to be doing a knee-jerk reaction to this by simple offering them not on combo discs as a result.

We simply do not know what the true margins on SD DVD, HD DVD (non-combo), and HD DVD combo movies sold so we can only speculate where that Law of diminishing returns point is.
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Old 04-04-2007, 12:01 PM   #108
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Actually, Universal not offering the combo disk any more is what I expected. Here is why the combo disk is being phased out.

1. Most customers are not willing to buy a combo disk at a higher price since they only have a regular DVD player. If Universal only offered a combo disk (and no regular DVD), they would hurt regular DVD sales due to the law of diminishing returns. Customers will start to buy their movie less if offered for more than $20.
2. Apparently the price point for HD-DVD is $30. When studios attempt to sell a combo disk at a higher price, they find that the law of diminishing returns reduce sales.
3. Universal does not want to sell a combo disk at the same price as a regular HD-DVD disk, because they will make more money from the double dippers that buy both the DVD and HD version of the movie.

For these reasons, apparently Universal has decided that they make more money by not offering a combo disk. Which goes in the exact opposite direction of what Unotis was expecting.
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Old 04-04-2007, 12:32 PM   #109
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Originally Posted by Chris Gerhard View Post

My position is easy to support, just look at what is happening. This scenario that isn't being tried and I predicted won't be tried and if it does is going to fail is the side that is difficult to support. The decision makers at Universal or Warner or other apparently don't find this idea too bright. Are they just stupid or have they done market research and believe the idea doesn't work? I suggest they know the idea is dumb and doesn't work, I don't buy they can't see such an easy possible attempt at greater market share. This possible approach was discussed years before the format ever launched. The idea would close the gap on HD disc software sales, despite being dumb, because it would sell to some that otherwise wouldn't sell. What it would also do is alienate a mainstream, big volume market, DVD.



I will close with a simple summary, this idea of forcing acceptance of a new format by a single inventory dual format disc that has already been tried and failed or analyzed and rejected by these players in the past won't be tried with HD DVD. Of course nobody will look back in a few years and think highly of me because I was right, I will still be the jerk that disagreed with the brilliant plan a few HD DVD enthusiasts discussed and ran with as terrific despite past history and despite no interest by the only companies that could actually try the plan.

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Chris,

Give up and admit that you have not proven anything,, you've just voiced your very biased opinion. I know many people have biased opinions on the forum (aren't all opinions biased?) but, at least they are open to diffferent opinions. You state yours as if they are carved in stone and handed down from God himself.

YOU asked for a possible scenerio of how HD DVD could quickly win the format war, this thread gave it to you!

And nowhere is it suggested that giving the consumer something FREE would be forcing something on them, and truthfully you're dumb if you think that this could alienate the mass market!

And your simpleton summary is just that!

When has anyone offered a HD/SD combo DVD for the same price before? Answer=NO ONE! so there is no history!

How do you know what the HD DVD camp is planning or not planning and if they might try this idea? Answer=YOU DON"T!

And if by some lucky chance you are correct, no one will look back and say you were brilliant because I'm certain you will remind everyone everwhere just how right you were and then they will think of you as a Jerk!

last but not least...Don't ask for something repeatedly in your posts then complain and refer to the scenerio as FUD when you're given it because that is exactly why you are not taken seriously here except by your one recent but late supporter.

So go back to the blu-ray forum where you can all pat each other on your backs until your arms fall off!

Last edited by unotis; 04-04-2007 at 12:53 PM..
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Old 04-04-2007, 12:36 PM   #110
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You just pretty much summed up my issues with his posts. Chris was always a good poster in my mind until recently, but he has resorted to ignoring key points in opposing posts, taking things out of context, and calling oppossing views AND posters FUD because of these methods used.

We get that he wants only one format but in reality we have THREE formats right now, and because of the high price of BD we may never replace SD DVD with BD. Certainly if HD DVD went away, then BD would NOT be dropping prices like they have had to with the two announced 2G BD players. Even still that price drop to $600-800.00 announced for them is not even close to getting people to change from SD DVD.

If BD wasn't around HD DVD would surely be higher priced, but with the potential (I know a BD word ) to drop faster. Also by only having SD DVD & HD DVD the combo discs would make all the retailers very happy and would avoid all the confusion that now exists in consumers.

I believe if BD never came to market that we WOULD have no where near the confusion and we WOULD have a smooth transition to HD DVD. I certainly do not want to reward a company that caused the transition to happen and happen fast AND at higher prices still double for hardware and still without ALL features in the spec, AND in the hardware.
I don't care about most of the things discussed in these format war threads. I don't think DVD is going away during the life of these products, it is a great value and in over 90% of homes. What I have stated is HD DVD can not win quickly and one HD disc format is preferrable. I haven't seen any credible disagreement with those opinions and if you think there has been and I have ignored it, you are wrong, I have read all of it and disagree with it completely. You are wrong if you think I have ignored any of this, it just isn't worth further discussion. The FUD thrown about here regarding what happens if Blu-ray wins and is the only HD disc format is exactly as I have called it, FUD, period.

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Old 04-04-2007, 12:36 PM   #111
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Originally Posted by fryet View Post
Actually, Universal not offering the combo disk any more is what I expected. Here is why the combo disk is being phased out.

1. Most customers are not willing to buy a combo disk at a higher price since they only have a regular DVD player. If Universal only offered a combo disk (and no regular DVD), they would hurt regular DVD sales due to the law of diminishing returns. Customers will start to buy their movie less if offered for more than $20.
2. Apparently the price point for HD-DVD is $30. When studios attempt to sell a combo disk at a higher price, they find that the law of diminishing returns reduce sales.
3. Universal does not want to sell a combo disk at the same price as a regular HD-DVD disk, because they will make more money from the double dippers that buy both the DVD and HD version of the movie.

For these reasons, apparently Universal has decided that they make more money by not offering a combo disk. Which goes in the exact opposite direction of what Unotis was expecting.
The combo disc is NOT being phased out. Universal apparently has decided to release catolog movies as regular HD DVDs for the time being. The day and date releases will still be combos.

Don't be so quick to shovel dirt on the combo.

It amuses me to see such dislike of the HD DVD combo by BD fans.

Last edited by bruceames; 04-04-2007 at 12:39 PM..
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Old 04-04-2007, 12:45 PM   #112
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Originally Posted by fryet View Post
When it comes to who has the advantage in the format war, I don't think it is as simple to calculate as described. One, just because one consultant says that 1 and 5 PS3 is connected to an HDTV does not mean their data is accurate. Two, even if inaccurate, people without HDTVs may in some cases still be buying BR movies (because they plan to upgrade soon, and don't want to have to buy the movies again when they do get an HDTV). The best indication of who is winning the format war is total disk sales in each format, which currently BR is winning hands down, although in all fairness, let's see if those sales numbers continue.

Also, SD-DVD is not going away any time soon, regardless of whether one of the HD formats drops out of the race. Until everyone owns HDTVs, there will continue to be a large market of buyers who will only be buying SD-DVD. For that reason, price of the player is not the biggest obstacle of an HD format replacing DVD.
Well written.

In your second paragraph, this scenerio does not say that SD DVD will just totally go away but, that giving them both for the price of one will facillitate the transition.

The HD DVD side would give the consumer the easiest way to do this and bonus of future HD DVD viewing without having to just toss all their already purchased SD DVDs.

Especially when they do purchase a HD DVD player to go with their new HDTV purchase.

HD DVD viewing will happen (no dispute there) but, with this scenerio it will be the HD DVD camp that will provide it the best and least cost to the consumer.

Again, a WIN, WIN SITUATION!
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Old 04-04-2007, 12:51 PM   #113
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The FUD thrown about here regarding what happens if Blu-ray wins and is the only HD disc format is exactly as I have called it, FUD, period.
Just like the FUD you are spreading (and Bill Hunt) that this format war must be resolved quickly or neither will win.
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Old 04-04-2007, 12:58 PM   #114
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...I have read all of it and disagree with it completely. You are wrong if you think I have ignored any of this, it just isn't worth further discussion.
Then we'll agree to disagree, nothing wrong with that. If you thus feel it's not worth further discussion, then I hope you act on those feelings.
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Old 04-04-2007, 01:00 PM   #115
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The combo disc is NOT being phased out. Universal apparently has decided to release catolog movies as regular HD DVDs for the time being. The day and date releases will still be combos.

Don't be so quick to shovel dirt on the combo.

It amuses me to see such dislike of the HD DVD combo by BD fans.
That's too bad- I wish they would shovel dirt on the combo- I absolutely hate them.
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Old 04-04-2007, 01:05 PM   #116
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That's too bad- I wish they would shovel dirt on the combo- I absolutely hate them.

It's too early to see what the true consensus is, and that would include more than just us early adopters. If more consumers end up hating them than liking them, then market forces will eventually phase them out.

I hope that they soon come out with the Twin Format discs, which is 30gb HD DVD + 4.7 SD DVD on one side. Most movies will fit on 4.7gb and they can always tweak with the bitrate in order to squeeze a few more minutes in. This is the kind of disc I imagine for the future and one that could potentially sell very well.
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Old 04-04-2007, 01:12 PM   #117
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Yeah- I know that natural forces will help the studios decide which direction to go in. I wasn't really looking at it from a market standpoint- just a Strawberry standpoint. And let me tell you- Strawberry hates 'em.

Also- (and this obviously doesn't apply to Universal, since they're a one-format studio) I hate to say it, but I'd be just as interested to know the effects that combos are having on dual-format releases. In my case- when a release hits both formats, and the HD DVD version costs more because of this combo business, (The Departed, Happy Feet, The Fountain, etc.) I'm buying Blu-Ray and saving myself the money in instances where I otherwise might not. I know that BR version of The Departed outsold the HD DVD version almost 2:1 after release- I'd be curious to know if those numbers would have been different if the prices had been the same...
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Old 04-04-2007, 01:18 PM   #118
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I hope that they soon come out with the Twin Format discs, which is 30gb HD DVD + 4.7 SD DVD on one side. Most movies will fit on 4.7gb and they can always tweak with the bitrate in order to squeeze a few more minutes in. This is the kind of disc I imagine for the future and one that could potentially sell very well.
Watch out!

Someone will read that and start posting how much the consumer would revolt if offered such an evil device especially if they can get it for a really good price...it's FUD!

After all the consumer will not be forced to purchase a HD DVD disc even if they get it free on the reverse side of their SD DVD disc.

They only truly want one HD format and naturally that will be Blu-Ray only!

Sorry, being sarcastic, been a rough day.

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Old 04-04-2007, 01:27 PM   #119
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Yeah- I know that natural forces will help the studios decide which direction to go in. I wasn't really looking at it from a market standpoint- just a Strawberry standpoint. And let me tell you- Strawberry hates 'em.
I personally like them okay and would buy alot of them if they decided to offer them for the same price (I have 2 other DVD players hooked up so I could use them in the other rooms also).

The flexability would be undeniably tempting.
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Old 04-04-2007, 01:34 PM   #120
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I personally like them okay and would buy alot of them if they decided to offer them for the same price (I have 2 other DVD players hooked up so I could use them in the other rooms also).

The flexability would be undeniably tempting.
Well, sure- the high price is the only thing I have against them. They're a little more tolerable on Amazon, but you just get creamed at the brick and mortar stores with the damn things.
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