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Scenario of how HD DVD wins format war quickly!

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Old 04-02-2007, 05:19 PM   #76
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Chris:

If you guys are willing to pay so much for DVD's, I sure wish you would bid on some of my eBay auctions, I am trying to thin out my collection and rarely get over $5 including shipping and often get no bids at all.
You have GOT to be kidding us . . .right?

This statement is a joke . . correct?

Cause if you believe this then everything we have said . . DID NOT sink in. $20 is for new releases. MOST DVD's do 75% of their sales in the first 30 days of their life.

You are selling the same junk movies that Wal-Mart sells for $5.00 BRAND NEW

Quote:
Fryet:

Based on your logic, a person should not buy either format, but just stick with an upconverting DVD player. If a person has gone through the trouble to buy a High Def player (like HD-DVD), then they aren't going to be satisfied watching upconverted movies - they want true High Def.
"You can dress that pig up so that she can go to the prom . . . .but she ain't winning the Prom Queen title"

Quote:
Fryet:

So in summary, if I am Universal, here is what I am looking at:

If I try to ensure HD-DVD wins:
I suffer a profit loss on combo disks
No guarantee that I will be able to kill off BR just by selling cheaper combo disks
I cannot sell my product to owners of the PS3 who do not also own another High Def player

If I try to ensure BR wins:
I do not suffer any loss of money, in fact I get access to all of the owners of the PS3.
I could guarantee the end of the format war by switching to BR support.

If you were a corporate exec, which would you chose? Either way you supposedly can end the format war, but which way is better for you?
If you are suggesting that the second choice of your scenerio is the correct one.. . I believe Unotis said it best:

Quote:
Unotis:

Why would the company that produces and supports one format exclusively, decide to not try and win the format war and take all the money from the market home to their vaults?
The reason is "do you want a small piece of the $277 Billion marketplace (2007-2017) . . . or do you want a big piece of that marketplace (Licensing and Royalty Fees)"

Quote:
PFC5:

I fully agree with you and I guess I left the " " off of the original post to let you know I was mostly joking about most BD players not upscaling because most are the PS3 which does not scale.
What's the joke?

2.5 to 3 million PS3's and 30,000 standalone players for BD. PS3 - IS the BD player of choice.

Last edited by Lee Stewart; 04-02-2007 at 05:24 PM..
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Old 04-03-2007, 04:25 AM   #77
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Originally Posted by unotis View Post
Stop picking and choosing what you read, I said some of the Blu-Ray players and you know that you consider the PS3 to be the example of a Blu-Ray player.

If in the future you want ot leave out that game console from discussions of Blu-Ray players just let us know and I'm sure we will do that just for you.

And also, You're the one who kept asking for someone to show a way that HD DVD could quickly win the format war!

I did with this thread, I did not say it had to happen this way anymore then your fantasy of Universal throwing in the towel and saying "We give up Blu-Ray's won"! has to happen.

So if you want to cry do it in your bathroom, although I do enjoy you're little tantrums AND YOU ARE A HOOT!
I don't cry and don't throw tantrums. Typically for HD DVD enthusiasts, you state something apparently intentionally misleading. Some players by my way of thinking would mean more than one model. I assume your post here means you agree, the scenario you have promoted won't be tried. You would think the second place team wouldn't be such a bunch of braggarts, maybe a little more lowkey approach is appropriate?

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Old 04-03-2007, 05:16 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by Chris Gerhard View Post
I don't cry and don't throw tantrums. Typically for HD DVD enthusiasts, you state something apparently intentionally misleading. Some players by my way of thinking would mean more than one model. I assume your post here means you agree, the scenario you have promoted won't be tried. You would think the second place team wouldn't be such a bunch of braggarts, maybe a little more lowkey approach is appropriate?
Chris
Remember that Daytona 500 scenerio?

Well the "second place team" is now about one car length behind the leader . . . and here comes turn 1 - don't be surprised if we pass you and take over the lead within the next 30 days.

Very easy to take a commanding lead when your competitor is on pit road making adjustments to their car. But now with the flood of HD DVD releases starting in about a week - bye bye "little blue" (IBM has always been called Big Blue).
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Old 04-03-2007, 07:31 AM   #79
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You have GOT to be kidding us . . .right?

This statement is a joke . . correct?

Cause if you believe this then everything we have said . . DID NOT sink in. $20 is for new releases. MOST DVD's do 75% of their sales in the first 30 days of their life.

You are selling the same junk movies that Wal-Mart sells for $5.00 BRAND NEW
Of course that is another blatantly false statement, but you are known for that. Get a list of titles I have sold or tried to sell in the last 90 days and try to prove that, you will come short in your analysis, I know that for a fact. You can pay $20 for DVD's if you want, you have that right. I have sold many DVD titles released on HD DVD, over a dozen as you would see if you bothered to even try to support anything you say.

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Old 04-03-2007, 08:04 AM   #80
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Of course that is another blatantly false statement, but you are known for that. Get a list of titles I have sold or tried to sell in the last 90 days and try to prove that, you will come short in your analysis, I know that for a fact. You can pay $20 for DVD's if you want, you have that right. I have sold many DVD titles released on HD DVD, over a dozen as you would see if you bothered to even try to support anything you say.
Chris
RED - Now that is FUNNY!!

OK Chris . . which one of these titles is on your ebay list?

ERAGON
ROCKY BALBOA
BLOOD DIAMOND

You and Jimmy Smith should get together! Call yourself Chris Smith or Jimmy Gerhard . . .

That way we can get twice the laughs!

Chris don't sell CLUELESS if you have it. You are going to need it!

BLUE - Yea I have the SD version of Bullitt and Black Rain and Van Helsing also

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Old 04-03-2007, 09:16 AM   #81
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Originally Posted by Chris Gerhard View Post
I don't cry and don't throw tantrums. Typically for HD DVD enthusiasts, you state something apparently intentionally misleading. Some players by my way of thinking would mean more than one model. I assume your post here means you agree, the scenario you have promoted won't be tried. You would think the second place team wouldn't be such a bunch of braggarts, maybe a little more lowkey approach is appropriate?

Chris
Where have I stated anything that is intentionally misleading?

Re-read your posts, you posted several times in one of the threads, would someone please show me a way HD DVD could win the format war quickly. Do I need to find your own posts and point them out to you?

And why do you insist the this approach will not be tried?

You might be right but there is just as much chance That you could be totally wrong.

And in my minds eye some players could mean the thousands upon thousands of your favorite Blu-Ray player, the almighty PS3, that should qualify as some (especially since they by far out sell the other players).

Come on Chris, keep beating that dead horse, I enjoy when you have lost the debate and refuse to acknowledge it (I think you secretly agree with everything we've posted but, to say so would be too painful when you're supposedly the 1st place team).
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Old 04-03-2007, 09:35 AM   #82
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Unotis:
If I was Universal I would try to have my format win the war just as much as if I was Ford... I wouldn't stop making Fords because the competition is costly and decide I'll just re-tool and start making Chevys.

The problem with this analogy is that Universal isn't making cars, they are making something that goes into the interior of the car. Whether HD-DVD or BR wins, Universal will still be selling their movies. For them to support one over the other has to give them a financial benefit. So when you are suggesting that they lose money to ensure that Chevy wins, it is contradictory for the reason they have created movies in the first place - to make money.
You misundertood what the analogy meant, I was not saying Universal sold cars but, cars and HD DVDs are both products being marketed and sold and the reason and methods of selling both are basically the same.

And if you don't think Ford or Chevy don't loose money inorder to insure their increased sales then you are wrong, Rebates, low interest financing and even giving optional features for free, costs them money which they make up through increased sales.

Quote:
OK, you have lost me here. They already have the entire DVD market. Anyone with a DVD player can play their DVD movies, and they release all of their new movies on DVD. Them selling their combo disks at less profit is not going to increase their DVD sales numbers. People aren't going to say, "Well, I wasn't going to buy this movie, but since it is on a combo disk, I will buy it." People buy movies because they want to watch it. If anything, high costs discourage people from buying a movie.
I don't know how I could have lost you?

They would sell at less profit to increase market share, that is very common in business, then when they have a larger slice of the pie they reap the profit benefits.

I never stated people should buy combo discs at higher costs, the whole point was combo discs at the same price to ease the transition from SD to HD DVDs. They would then have the total market in HD DVDs (HD DVD's takeover will happen the only question is when and by whom).

So it should read, I was going to buy this disc anyway, why not get the HD version included since it won't cost me anymore and I'll probably purchase a HD DVD player in the future (especially since they cost half what a Blu-Ray player costs) to go with my new HDTV anyway.

Have I explained it properly or do you still not understand it?

Last edited by unotis; 04-03-2007 at 09:46 AM..
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Old 04-03-2007, 02:45 PM   #83
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OK, unotis, you are not understanding anything that I am saying, so this debate will be ending soon, since I don't know of how to say it any more clearly. I would like to clarify one thing that you are saying.

You are saying that Universal can increase market share by selling combo disks for less than they are now. Let' take the example of the movie King Kong, produced by Universal

The movie is currently available in DVD format and can play on all DVD players. The movie is also available on High Def format, and can play on HD-DVD players, but not on BR players. You have already stated that Universal is not trying to kill the BR format so that it can convince all of the BR owners to purchase HD-DVD players instead, so the BR marketshare is unreachable for them. Where else were you expecting Universal to be expanding its market share? The only new potential buyers of King Kong that I can see would be BR owners. Is there another aspect of the market that I am unaware of?
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Old 04-03-2007, 03:50 PM   #84
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I think he is saying IF Universal and the other HD DVD studios start selling combos at the price new release SD DVDs sell for now, they can expand their market share IN HD DVD by having all the people who do not currently own HD DVD players buying THEM since they would already have many discs with that HD format at home.

It would be a side bonus to get all the BD fans buying discs with HD DVD (because that is how they would all be sold). This might even tempt BD fans to end up buying a HD DVD player to watch them in HD. This could easily happen when the prices get low enough for HD DVD players like they appear to be heading towards.
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Old 04-03-2007, 04:06 PM   #85
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Originally Posted by unotis View Post
Where have I stated anything that is intentionally misleading?

Re-read your posts, you posted several times in one of the threads, would someone please show me a way HD DVD could win the format war quickly. Do I need to find your own posts and point them out to you?

And why do you insist the this approach will not be tried?

You might be right but there is just as much chance That you could be totally wrong.

And in my minds eye some players could mean the thousands upon thousands of your favorite Blu-Ray player, the almighty PS3, that should qualify as some (especially since they by far out sell the other players).

Come on Chris, keep beating that dead horse, I enjoy when you have lost the debate and refuse to acknowledge it (I think you secretly agree with everything we've posted but, to say so would be too painful when you're supposedly the 1st place team).
I lost the debate, I stated the scenario you offer doesn't work and won't be tried, how have I lost that debate? Your silly idea will never be tried.

If you meant some players is one model, then you are entitled to write however you choose, I consider some means more than one, but if you meant there was one model owned by many people that can't upscale, then you don't write or think the way I do, but we already knew that.

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Old 04-03-2007, 04:12 PM   #86
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Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post
RED - Now that is FUNNY!!

OK Chris . . which one of these titles is on your ebay list?

ERAGON
ROCKY BALBOA
BLOOD DIAMOND

You and Jimmy Smith should get together! Call yourself Chris Smith or Jimmy Gerhard . . .

That way we can get twice the laughs!

Chris don't sell CLUELESS if you have it. You are going to need it!

BLUE - Yea I have the SD version of Bullitt and Black Rain and Van Helsing also

Wow, you are quite the debater, those three titles are the only ones that aren't at Wal-Mart at $5 and that is how you prove that I am not selling anything other than $5 Wal-Mart titles. Even you should be able to see how silly your arguments are. I am fed up with this and have put you on ignore so if others find your nonsense insightful, let them try to make sense of it.

Your attempts at humor or attempts to ridicule don't come off very well, but I won't have to point that out to you any longer. Jimmy
Gerhard and Chris Smith, I can only assume that brilliant come back took some real thought.

Chris
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Old 04-03-2007, 05:46 PM   #87
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I think he is saying IF Universal and the other HD DVD studios start selling combos at the price new release SD DVDs sell for now, they can expand their market share IN HD DVD by having all the people who do not currently own HD DVD players buying THEM since they would already have many discs with that HD format at home.

It would be a side bonus to get all the BD fans buying discs with HD DVD (because that is how they would all be sold). This might even tempt BD fans to end up buying a HD DVD player to watch them in HD. This could easily happen when the prices get low enough for HD DVD players like they appear to be heading towards.
PFC5, thanks for trying to explain his position. The problem is that movies don't exactly have a market share, either they offer it in a format or they don't. The only way they could expand their market share is if they begin to offer their movies to an untapped market, like BR, or maybe PSP. But let's go back to King Kong as an example. Let's also just stick with the DVD market to keep things simple. Universal chooses to release the movie at $20, and they get 500,00 buyers (I am making the numbers up). Now they build a time machine, go back in time and decide to sell the movie for $15 instead. They sell 600,000 copies instead. The majority of buyers were going to buy the movie anyway, and only a few fence-sitters changed their mind due to the lower price. They then go ahead and change their mind again, go back in time again, and sell the movie for $5 instead. 1 million copies of the movie are sold. That means more market share, right? Well, Universal then decides to release their next movie at $20. Will more people buy that movie since they bought King Kong from Universal? Probably not, since people don't have much brand loyalty when it comes to movies - they buy movies based on the quality of the individual product, not based on which movie studio is distributing the movie. In fact, if customers get in the habit of buying movies for a lower price, they will start to view the $20 movies as overpriced, and studios then have to offer future movies at a reduced price in order to sell the same numbers.

So in summary, reduced prices in movies do cause some effect in how many units of that movie sells, but does very little when it comes to making a customer choose to buy another title from that studio in the future. Movie studios are constantly weighing the best price point for selling their products, and will only reduce prices if they believe it will increase unit sales enough to justify the lower cost. All else being equal, movie studios prefer customers to buy a $20 DVD and a $30 HD-DVD, not just a $20 combo-disk. It is unlikely that just by adding HD-DVD to a DVD will significantly increase the sale of DVDs, so they are better off selling DVD and HD-DVD separately.
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Old 04-03-2007, 08:52 PM   #88
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I hear what you are saying BUT, we are talking about more than JUST SD DVDs. the market share aspect is based on the format since we are discussing this. If Universal sells new release combos for the same price as SD DVD new releases instead of the $5.00 premium then al lot of people buy the combo so they have an upgrade path to HD when they are ready to make the move. If you already own say 10 combos which HD player are you going to buy?
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Old 04-04-2007, 03:42 AM   #89
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I hear what you are saying BUT, we are talking about more than JUST SD DVDs. the market share aspect is based on the format since we are discussing this. If Universal sells new release combos for the same price as SD DVD new releases instead of the $5.00 premium then al lot of people buy the combo so they have an upgrade path to HD when they are ready to make the move. If you already own say 10 combos which HD player are you going to buy?
The one that has the most software or the most titles of interest to watch in the future or the one that can play the biggest selection of movies at the rental store or the one that my friends and family use. The one that can play these 10 movies that have already been watched on DVD repeatedly isn't even going to get much consideration.

My position is easy to support, just look at what is happening. This scenario that isn't being tried and I predicted won't be tried and if it does is going to fail is the side that is difficult to support. Somehow I have lost the debate because of something, what I don't know. Because somebody said something or the group of you don't like me? It is all too funny to try to make sense of. In general, a debate about a possible future event can't be lost based on discussion of how it was right or terrific or brilliant despite the fact it never happened. The decision makers at Universal or Warner or other apparently don't find this idea too bright. Are they just stupid or have they done market research and believe the idea doesn't work? I suggest they know the idea is dumb and doesn't work, I don't buy they can't see such an easy possible attempt at greater market share. This possible approach was discussed years before the format ever launched. The idea would close the gap on HD disc software sales, despite being dumb, because it would sell to some that otherwise wouldn't sell. What it would also do is alienate a mainstream, big volume market, DVD.

Most everybody here jumps onboard touting HD DVD and discussing how it can win the format war, an idiotic position based on the facts, and it is great and rah, rah, rah, blah, blah, blah. Repeating FUD about how awful Blu-ray is, and more rah, rah, rah, blah, blah, blah. Challenging the FUD and trying to stop the lunacy is bad and derided. Obviously I will soon get tired of having to take this position and stop my lone dissenter status and discuss my beloved hobby at other sites or different areas of this forum. The debate here has no basis in fact, no basis in past history, it consists entirely a group of people that want HD DVD and believe some things can happen, things that just can't happen and won't happen. I don't know why so many of you feel so passionately about these things that don't matter and can't happen, and I won't try to figure that out. I joined it with a logical straight forward position, if you want HD discs to succeed, one format is best in my opinion. Blu-ray has the studio support, hardware manufacture support, and the lead in sales. So I suggest having Blu-ray win quickly is best for the hobby. I read FUD about how superior HD DVD is and about how the awful manufacturers and studios behind Blu-ray are going to do blah, blah, blah. It is all a big bunch of nonsense and I challenged it and have to endure ridicule so I fight back with all I can think of, biting comments and challenging statements made without support or challenging statements that are obviously just wrong.

I will close with a simple summary, this idea of forcing acceptance of a new format by a single inventory dual format disc that has already been tried and failed or analyzed and rejected by these players in the past won't be tried with HD DVD. Of course nobody will look back in a few years and think highly of me because I was right, I will still be the jerk that disagreed with the brilliant plan a few HD DVD enthusiasts discussed and ran with as terrific despite past history and despite no interest by the only companies that could actually try the plan.

Chris
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Old 04-04-2007, 04:54 AM   #90
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The one that has the most software or the most titles of interest to watch in the future or the one that can play the biggest selection of movies at the rental store or the one that my friends and family use. The one that can play these 10 movies that have already been watched on DVD repeatedly isn't even going to get much consideration.

My position is easy to support, just look at what is happening. This scenario that isn't being tried and I predicted won't be tried and if it does is going to fail is the side that is difficult to support. Somehow I have lost the debate because of something, what I don't know. Because somebody said something or the group of you don't like me? It is all too funny to try to make sense of. In general, a debate about a possible future event can't be lost based on discussion of how it was right or terrific or brilliant despite the fact it never happened. The decision makers at Universal or Warner or other apparently don't find this idea too bright. Are they just stupid or have they done market research and believe the idea doesn't work? I suggest they know the idea is dumb and doesn't work, I don't buy they can't see such an easy possible attempt at greater market share. This possible approach was discussed years before the format ever launched. The idea would close the gap on HD disc software sales, despite being dumb, because it would sell to some that otherwise wouldn't sell. What it would also do is alienate a mainstream, big volume market, DVD.

Most everybody here jumps onboard touting HD DVD and discussing how it can win the format war, an idiotic position based on the facts, and it is great and rah, rah, rah, blah, blah, blah. Repeating FUD about how awful Blu-ray is, and more rah, rah, rah, blah, blah, blah. Challenging the FUD and trying to stop the lunacy is bad and derided. Obviously I will soon get tired of having to take this position and stop my lone dissenter status and discuss my beloved hobby at other sites or different areas of this forum. The debate here has no basis in fact, no basis in past history, it consists entirely a group of people that want HD DVD and believe some things can happen, things that just can't happen and won't happen. I don't know why so many of you feel so passionately about these things that don't matter and can't happen, and I won't try to figure that out. I joined it with a logical straight forward position, if you want HD discs to succeed, one format is best in my opinion. Blu-ray has the studio support, hardware manufacture support, and the lead in sales. So I suggest having Blu-ray win quickly is best for the hobby. I read FUD about how superior HD DVD is and about how the awful manufacturers and studios behind Blu-ray are going to do blah, blah, blah. It is all a big bunch of nonsense and I challenged it and have to endure ridicule so I fight back with all I can think of, biting comments and challenging statements made without support or challenging statements that are obviously just wrong.

I will close with a simple summary, this idea of forcing acceptance of a new format by a single inventory dual format disc that has already been tried and failed or analyzed and rejected by these players in the past won't be tried with HD DVD. Of course nobody will look back in a few years and think highly of me because I was right, I will still be the jerk that disagreed with the brilliant plan a few HD DVD enthusiasts discussed and ran with as terrific despite past history and despite no interest by the only companies that could actually try the plan.

Chris
I agree with most of your post. Pretty much this entire forum is pro HD DVD and Anti-Blu-Ray and positive Blu-Ray articles either go unread or quickly dismissed. And IMO, HD DVD winning is just too unlikely for me to agree with; too many things have to happen. But HD DVD fans will latch on to the same old things. "Cheaper players will come soon and don't forget about all these titles we're coming out with, these studios are going to go neutral". Seriously, how many topics or posts have been said about rumored "Neutrality". But if you post an article about someone predicting a Blu-Ray victory, look out! Fear makes you do crazy things, in this case; say them.
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