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ESCA: Blu-ray will be 50% of market by 2012

Bravestime
06-24-2009, 04:05 PM
ESCA: Blu-ray will be 50% of market by 2012
PHYSICAL: Futuresource predicts software sales to grow with set-top price drops

Blu-ray Disc is not being adopted as fast as once expected, but the format’s relatively steady growth remains a huge driver for the home entertainment business, according to Futuresource Consulting. At a presentation at the Entertainment Supply Chain Conference here Tuesday, Futuresource predicted that by 2012, Blu-ray software sales will make up half of home entertainment business.

Now, household penetration of high-definition hardware in the U.S. is split 3% set-top and 6% PS3. That will switch in 2012 to 53% set-top and 22% PS3.

“This is all about pricing,” said Alison Casey, Futuresource head of global content. “In 2012, you’ll see entry-level Blu-ray pricing at $50. At that point, Blu-ray will become mass market.”

As the maturing standard-definition DVD market should continue to lose value—down 13% in revenue in the U.S. in 2009, estimates Futuresource—Blu-ray’s momentum will be responsible for stabilizing the category. With Blu-ray software making up 50% of the market in 2012, digital will comprise 29%, split between TV video-on-demand at 16%, online video at 10% and mobile sales at 3%.


Complete Article (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6667297.html)

DonnyDC
06-24-2009, 04:11 PM
With Blu-ray software making up 50% of the market in 2012, digital will comprise 29%, split between TV video-on-demand at 16%, online video at 10% and mobile sales at 3%So that leaves DVD with... 21 percent?

I think thats a little low.

Lee Stewart
06-24-2009, 04:14 PM
"As the maturing standard-definition DVD market should continue to lose value—down 13% in revenue in the U.S. in 2009"

DVD revenue in 2008 was $21.6B

http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/press/CES2009yearEnd.htm

A 13% reduction will be $2.8B

BD is going to do $2.8B in revenue for 2009? ........................:rolleyes:

DonnyDC
06-24-2009, 04:35 PM
I think they meant Blu ray will eventually 'stabilize the catagory,' maybe not in 2009 though.

Lee Stewart
06-24-2009, 04:46 PM
As the maturing standard-definition DVD market should continue to lose value—down 13% in revenue in the U.S. in 2009, estimates Futuresource—Blu-ray’s momentum will be responsible for stabilizing the category.

sta⋅bi⋅lize  /ˈsteɪbəˌlaɪz/ Show Spelled [stey-buh-lahyz] Show IPA verb, -lized, -liz⋅ing.

Use stabilizing in a Sentence
–verb (used with object)

1.to make or hold stable, firm, or steadfast.

2.to maintain at a given or unfluctuating level or quantity: The government will try to stabilize the cost of living.

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/stabilizing

But not in 2009.

DonnyDC
06-24-2009, 04:49 PM
Uh ok?

bruceames
06-24-2009, 07:45 PM
Pretty optimistic prediction, given that Blu-ray's marketshare has remain fairly constant for the last 8-9 months at around 10%. Furthermore, just because people buy $50 Blu-ray players doesn't mean that they'll buy $25 movies. The current niche group will, yes, but as BD player penetration gets mainstream by default (like HDTV is now, nothing else to buy), the average Joe will be more inclined to buy the $3 DVDs and rent the day and dates.

Bravestime
06-24-2009, 08:37 PM
Pretty optimistic prediction, given that Blu-ray's marketshare has remain fairly constant for the last 8-9 months at around 10%. Furthermore, just because people buy $50 Blu-ray players doesn't mean that they'll buy $25 movies. The current niche group will, yes, but as BD player penetration gets mainstream by default (like HDTV is now, nothing else to buy), the average Joe will be more inclined to buy the $3 DVDs and rent the day and dates.

As the BD's revenue increases, then I see the price of the titles dropping. If the studios drop the price down to within $4 of the DVD version and reduce the DVD content to nearly a stripped down package, then I can see a great deal of consumers buying the BD version.

With that said, I really do not ever expect BD to revitalize the physical media format. I do believe overall physical media will slowly decrease due to the other available HD sources.

HD Goofnut
06-24-2009, 11:14 PM
I also think that the studios will begin to phase out the 2 disc DVD sets. They'll probably narrow it down to a single disc DVD with no special features and the BD that will contain all of the special features. The price difference will be probably $5-10 difference with the DVD being about $15-17 and the BD being $25-27 at least concerning new releases.

Nikopol
06-25-2009, 02:07 AM
These predictions always read like what stock market "analysts" would have written during better times. Yet another "huge thing", happening in three years time... I love how it basically says "format didn't meet expectations", yet it will dominate the market nevertheless".

I'll believe it, when i see it. Imo the key will be in the software revenue growth rates, this should tell us most of what we need to know.

bruceames
06-25-2009, 08:44 AM
I also think that the studios will begin to phase out the 2 disc DVD sets. They'll probably narrow it down to a single disc DVD with no special features and the BD that will contain all of the special features. The price difference will be probably $5-10 difference with the DVD being about $15-17 and the BD being $25-27 at least concerning new releases.

I think they will as well, but the studios will be careful not to overly cripple a dominant format (90% of sales right now) too soon, since the bottom line for them is the sum total of both formats.

HD Goofnut
06-25-2009, 08:56 AM
I think they will as well, but the studios will be careful not to overly cripple a dominant format (90% of sales right now) too soon, since the bottom line for them is the sum total of both formats.

They'll probably phase out the 2 disc DVD sets and use them just for blockbuster new releases and then eventually they will dump those as well.

MikeRox
06-25-2009, 10:29 AM
As the BD's revenue increases, then I see the price of the titles dropping. If the studios drop the price down to within $4 of the DVD version and reduce the DVD content to nearly a stripped down package, then I can see a great deal of consumers buying the BD version.

With that said, I really do not ever expect BD to revitalize the physical media format. I do believe overall physical media will slowly decrease due to the other available HD sources.

This. The Retail prices for DVDs in the UK are nigh on identical on new releases (between £3 and £5). It's the discount RETAILERS apply to releases that makes such a big gap in reality.

As volumes of Blu-ray sales increase, so too will the reductions on them in a bid to drive traffic through stores.

It's incredible how some people seem to have forgotten equal (in fact in most cases HIGHER) price tags for DVDs at this point in the formats life.

bruceames
06-25-2009, 10:50 AM
This. The Retail prices for DVDs in the UK are nigh on identical on new releases (between £3 and £5). It's the discount RETAILERS apply to releases that makes such a big gap in reality.

As volumes of Blu-ray sales increase, so too will the reductions on them in a bid to drive traffic through stores.

It's incredible how some people seem to have forgotten equal (in fact in most cases HIGHER) price tags for DVDs at this point in the formats life.

No, I haven't forgotten, but the average potential consumer probably has. This is still 5" optical right? Fresh in consumer's minds are more likely the $3 DVD bins in high visiblity areas, full of good catalog movies, which goes a long way to devalue the perception of optical disc in general.

Raul2106
06-25-2009, 10:58 AM
I've noticed some instances where the DVD 2 disc special edition costs more than the Blu-Ray. I think that has to do with the fact that DVD is still sales king. Perhaps that will change but for now. Amazon.com has Benjamin Button at $22.99 for the two disc DVD or $22.99 for the Blu-Ray so if the new strategy becomes make Blu-Ray & DVD cost the same, the incentive to switch isn't really there for J6P because he already has a working DVD player. It seems like studios are trying to treat both formats the same. Like removing High Definition from the Blu-Ray cases. This gives studios the ability to release upcoverted SD content on Blu-Ray with zero flack because they will no-longer push Blu-Ray as purely High Def anymore. I think they will begin to use Blu Ray as a storage saving format.

Raul2106
06-25-2009, 11:03 AM
Oops. Double post.

kamspy
06-25-2009, 11:16 AM
ESCA needs better analysts.

steve3050
06-25-2009, 05:58 PM
So that leaves DVD with... 21 percent?

I think thats a little low.http://www.imagefrost.com/img/io/iy.gif

tech will always dominate from times to times....

Lee Stewart
06-25-2009, 10:43 PM
Blu-ray sales to account for half of all discs sold by 2012

According to UK market research outfit Futuresource Consulting, Blu-ray software sales could account for half of all packed video media by 2012, but sales at present are not meeting expectations.

Speaking at the US Entertainment Supply Chain Association Conference, the company said that it was revising its sales expectations for Blu-ray titles downwards this year because of ongoing low attachment rates from PS3 owners.

It seems that owners of the Sony super-console only buy one or two BD movies a year, compared to between five and eight from owners of standalone players.

Futuresource's Alison Casey, who says disc sales will boom when player prices fall, predicts that a $50 BD player will arrive in 2012.

http://www.techradar.com/blogs/article/blu-ray-sales-to-account-for-half-of-all-discs-sold-by-2012-611030?src=rss&attr=all