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Blu-ray is booming Hollywood Reporter

Chris Gerhard
07-14-2008, 08:44 PM
Of course we are all bored with articles claiming Blu-ray is flopping or Blu-ray is booming. This one claims first 6 months disc sales are up 340 percent compared to the first 6 months of 2007 with "I Am Legend" selling over 300,000. If this is accurate, I would think it should put an end to the Blu-ray is flopping claims. That has to be acceptable growth by anybody's standards.

http://www.tvpredictions.com/blu071408.htm

Chris

anythingwt
07-14-2008, 09:02 PM
That has to be acceptable growth by anybody's standards.

Lee, acceptable? ;)

Hitachi65SWX20B
07-14-2008, 09:46 PM
All I have to say is blu ray is now 2 years old, A major blockbuster film like I Am Legend has sold only 300,000 copy's on blu with MILLIONS of blu ray players in homes... Something has gone terribly WRONG! Look at how it did on DVD, DVD units sold at 5,901,838 (Source:http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2007/LEGND-DVD.php). Blu has sold a meager 5% of that, Thats after being on the market for 2 whole years now, Millions and Millions of blu ray players in homes, A major movie release & is the only disc based HDM game in town! Only garnering 5% of sales after blu has been on the market this long and in that many homes tells me two things, Either DVD is Really good enough Or... People just don't care enough to pay up to TWICE as much for a movie just to have it in HD. My bet is the HTIB crowd (aka. the masses) Think DVD Really IS Good enough.

anythingwt
07-14-2008, 10:08 PM
All I have to say is blu ray is now 2 years old, A major blockbuster film like I Am Legend has sold only 300,000 copy's on blu with MILLIONS of blu ray players in homes... Something has gone terribly WRONG! Look at how it did on DVD, DVD units sold at 5,901,838 (Source:http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2007/LEGND-DVD.php). Blu has sold a meager 5% of that, Thats after being on the market for 2 whole years now, Millions and Millions of blu ray players in homes, A major movie release & is the only disc based HDM game in town! Only garnering 5% of sales after blu has been on the market this long and in that many homes tells me two things, Either DVD is Really good enough Or... People just don't care enough to pay up to TWICE as much for a movie just to have it in HD. My bet is the HTIB crowd (aka. the masses) Think DVD Really IS Good enough.


Half of those millions of blu-ray players are used strictly as game consoles. You know this.

And instead of saying it has been on the market for "2 whole years now" you should be saying it has been on the market for "only 2 years"

It took DVD 5 and a half years to take over VHS. Now DVD is 12 yrs old. You can't compare a format that's been around for 12 yrs to one that's been around for just 2. That's not apples to apples.

Hitachi65SWX20B
07-14-2008, 11:13 PM
look into DVD's sales at their second birthday. They were selling at a much better clip then 5% over VHS. I look at it as 2 Whole years. Alot happens in two years, Thats 730 days, An income of 60,000 a year = 120,000 for two years, If we live to be 75 years old, Two years would be 3% of our life! So to me, Its been two WHOLE years. Yes I know not every ps3 is used for blu ray, But by judging by how the games are selling, Its not being used for gaming either! MSG4 has dropped like an anvil off a cliff as far as sale's go and that was supposed to be *the game* for the ps3. Its been out for 3 weeks now and still hasn't hit 1 mill sold in the USA. I can name a half dozen games off the top of my head for the X360 that have sold more in the same time frame, When Gears of War came out the X360 only had 3.351 million 360s sold in the USA, Gears sold 606,000 in the very first week, PS3 has 5.213 million sold so far and MSG4 is only at 701,000 sold in its THIRD week and dropping FAST! In Gears third week it was at 1.123 million sold in the USA. Somethings wrong with all these numbers. Games aren't selling, BD's aren't selling, What is the PS3 being used for?

anythingwt
07-15-2008, 12:05 AM
look into DVD's sales at their second birthday. They were selling at a much better clip then 5% over VHS. I look at it as 2 Whole years. Alot happens in two years, Thats 730 days, An income of 60,000 a year = 120,000 for two years, If we live to be 75 years old, Two years would be 3% of our life! So to me, Its been two WHOLE years. Yes I know not every ps3 is used for blu ray, But by judging by how the games are selling, Its not being used for gaming either! MSG4 has dropped like an anvil off a cliff as far as sale's go and that was supposed to be *the game* for the ps3. Its been out for 3 weeks now and still hasn't hit 1 mill sold in the USA. I can name a half dozen games off the top of my head for the X360 that have sold more in the same time frame, When Gears of War came out the X360 only had 3.351 million 360s sold in the USA, Gears sold 606,000 in the very first week, PS3 has 5.213 million sold so far and MSG4 is only at 701,000 sold in its THIRD week and dropping FAST! In Gears third week it was at 1.123 million sold in the USA. Somethings wrong with all these numbers. Games aren't selling, BD's aren't selling, What is the PS3 being used for?


Comparing how DVD over VHS isn't really an apples to apples example either. VHS was around for 15+ yrs before it became a standard for movie viewing in homes. On top of that, VHS was in a war with Betamax for a period during that time of it's life. DVD on the other hand only took 5.5 yrs to take over the market. So DVD clearly was a more fast paced moving format, and also didn't have to deal with a format war. This will make it's early life statistics look much better than VHS's early life statistics.

And in regards to the PS3 not doing well.. I think this is all about timing. We are in a recession, that is only getting worse. Gears was released in Nov 2006. Comparing Gears sales to MGS4 doesnt make sense either. People were spending more money back then. Now everyone's broke and stressing out about the market. Sales in general are going to be down because of that. It's not because there are just millions of PS3s sitting in peoples homes not getting used. Most people are probably either renting or borrowing games/BDs right now.

Chris Gerhard
07-15-2008, 03:15 AM
All I have to say is blu ray is now 2 years old, A major blockbuster film like I Am Legend has sold only 300,000 copy's on blu with MILLIONS of blu ray players in homes... Something has gone terribly WRONG! Look at how it did on DVD, DVD units sold at 5,901,838 (Source:http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2007/LEGND-DVD.php). Blu has sold a meager 5% of that, Thats after being on the market for 2 whole years now, Millions and Millions of blu ray players in homes, A major movie release & is the only disc based HDM game in town! Only garnering 5% of sales after blu has been on the market this long and in that many homes tells me two things, Either DVD is Really good enough Or... People just don't care enough to pay up to TWICE as much for a movie just to have it in HD. My bet is the HTIB crowd (aka. the masses) Think DVD Really IS Good enough.

Uh, if this growth continues project sales levels in two years. I didn't state the absolute numbers are good enough that no further growth is needed. No, Blu-ray doesn't match DVD sales. When DVD was getting rolling there was nothing to distract from the growth, it was terrific and much better than anything that preceded it and everybody wanted it and was talking about it. Blu-ray has DVD to contend with and it is still rocking and rolling.

My point was this growth is acceptable, not that Blu-ray can just remain stagnant and all will be well, the growth must continue. I have never thought Blu-ray replaces DVD and everybody has to own Blu-ray just like everybody owns DVD. DVD isn't growing, in fact is declining, but the sales volume is still huge and it can decline at this level for 10 years and it will still be huge. If both percentage changes are maintained, Blu-ray passes DVD at some point in the not too distant future, three or four years!

I knew somebody would try to state the Blu-ray results are poor meaning having HD DVD disappear didn't help, this is such a funny group that hangs out here. You haven't changed my opinion, Blu-ray is growing acceptably and I expect to see similar comparative results the second half of the year. At this point in time a release that sells over 300,000 is big, not DVD level by any stretch, but huge compared to Blu-ray or HD DVD standards.

Chris

Hitachi65SWX20B
07-15-2008, 07:50 PM
Uh, if this growth continues project sales levels in two years. I didn't state the absolute numbers are good enough that no further growth is needed. No, Blu-ray doesn't match DVD sales. When DVD was getting rolling there was nothing to distract from the growth, it was terrific and much better than anything that preceded it and everybody wanted it and was talking about it. Blu-ray has DVD to contend with and it is still rocking and rolling.

My point was this growth is acceptable, not that Blu-ray can just remain stagnant and all will be well, the growth must continue. I have never thought Blu-ray replaces DVD and everybody has to own Blu-ray just like everybody owns DVD. DVD isn't growing, in fact is declining, but the sales volume is still huge and it can decline at this level for 10 years and it will still be huge. If both percentage changes are maintained, Blu-ray passes DVD at some point in the not too distant future, three or four years!

I knew somebody would try to state the Blu-ray results are poor meaning having HD DVD disappear didn't help, this is such a funny group that hangs out here. You haven't changed my opinion, Blu-ray is growing acceptably and I expect to see similar comparative results the second half of the year. At this point in time a release that sells over 300,000 is big, not DVD level by any stretch, but huge compared to Blu-ray or HD DVD standards.

Chris

You made some great points! Don't get me wrong... I'm not trying to be a stick in the mud. I guess I just expected more now that the format war is over. I think it's more like I was really hoping for better because after getting burned with HD DVD I told myself that I absolutely would not buy into blu ray until it's *safe* too. I really want it to hit that Safe level BAD! The level I set for being safe to buy in to blu ray was when new releases sell 1 million copy's regularly. Maybe I set the bar kinda high there, After getting smoked bad by HD DVD though... I'm very very hesitant!

soupnazi
07-15-2008, 08:56 PM
Look at the fact that when blu-ray first started most of the releases were only blockbusters and must have reference titles transferred to high def. Now we are getting a lot more blu-ray titles released along with the weekly dvd releases and the blu-ray titles are starting to add up along with even more of the older movies being transferred to high def.
I think it is really similar to the way dvd took over the helm from vhs. I'm not sure yet that dvd will stand down as fast though.

Chris Gerhard
07-16-2008, 02:28 AM
You made some great points! Don't get me wrong... I'm not trying to be a stick in the mud. I guess I just expected more now that the format war is over. I think it's more like I was really hoping for better because after getting burned with HD DVD I told myself that I absolutely would not buy into blu ray until it's *safe* too. I really want it to hit that Safe level BAD! The level I set for being safe to buy in to blu ray was when new releases sell 1 million copy's regularly. Maybe I set the bar kinda high there, After getting smoked bad by HD DVD though... I'm very very hesitant!

Fair enough. I am always overly optimistic about the Blu-ray results and what it all means. Consumers are either going to embrace this format and prefer it to alternative ways to watch HD at home, or it will remain the small market product it is now. The fact that it is growing at a healthy rate is a great sign and another couple of years of this and we are there, it will be big enough that we should see many releases we want and retailers will recognize it as a product that gets consumers in the store. Perception is as important as actual results so far. Blu-ray is perceived as a winner now, but there have been several better than DVD and better than CD shiny 5" formats that haven't found a market big enough to amount to anything. This one isn't there yet, but it is doing far better than the previous attempts.

Chris

Razor05
07-16-2008, 10:16 AM
Of course we are all bored with articles claiming Blu-ray is flopping or Blu-ray is booming.

Actually I am really bored with people still gloating over Blu-ray.