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Blu-ray Isn't Getting Much Traction [Businessweek]

Nikopol
05-09-2008, 02:27 AM
Most of the contents discussed in the article have been discussed already, not much new info here imo. Yet another pessimistic view on the market. ;)

Wonder if that holds any water (?):

Hollywood has good reason to push Blu-ray hard. The discs cost $4 to $5 to make and wholesale for about $17ónice margins. Movies delivered over cable or online are a lot less lucrative because generally they're rented; the studios typically get 60% of $4.99 or so.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_20/b4084050513499.htm?campaign_id=rss_null

MikeRox
05-09-2008, 02:30 AM
Interesting, so the margins are higher on blu-ray despite higher production costs etc. If we can get a few more people buying into Blu-ray while the ISPs are farting around trying to get their connections more stable there could be a lucrative Blu-ray market.

The_Omega_Man
05-09-2008, 02:36 AM
Still Waiting..........:zzz

Cowboy X
05-09-2008, 05:57 AM
Most of the contents discussed in the article have been discussed already, not much new info here imo. Yet another pessimistic view on the market. ;)

Wonder if that holds any water (?):



http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_20/b4084050513499.htm?campaign_id=rss_null

I think that it does hold water. But one of the problems right now is that it is starting to become popular to criticize Blu-Ray. So expect suddenly every analyst will come out of the woodwork to make sure that if Blu goes south they are on record as having said something. So unless an analyst releases some new untold info I will not really pay them too much attention.

The interesting thing here is that Blu-Ray's problems are not new and I could have predicted these things since last year. If not truly predict I could have mentioned these current issues are very very likely challenges which Blu would have to (and is) face unless the BDA made some major changes to the way that they were doing (and are) business.

Stew4HD
05-09-2008, 06:30 AM
I think that it does hold water. But one of the problems right now is that it is starting to become popular to criticize Blu-Ray. So expect suddenly every analyst will come out of the woodwork to make sure that if Blu goes south they are on record as having said something. So unless an analyst releases some new untold info I will not really pay them too much attention.

The interesting thing here is that Blu-Ray's problems are not new and I could have predicted these things since last year. If not truly predict I could have mentioned these current issues are very very likely challenges which Blu would have to (and is) face unless the BDA made some major changes to the way that they were doing (and are) business.

The big downside to all the negative open press is that J6P can see it. The more negatives spread around, the harder it will be for BD to get legs. It's one thing for us, here in this little forum to bring up the negatives (and positives :) ) but when the press is doing it... Not good. I hope BD doesn't pull a Toshiba and just sit back and figure the format will grow without water and/or fertilizer!

SLedford
05-09-2008, 07:05 AM
Stew4HD said "The big downside to all the negative open press is that J6P can see it. The more negatives spread around, the harder it will be for BD to get legs. It's one thing for us, here in this little forum to bring up the negatives (and positives ) but when the press is doing it... Not good. I hope BD doesn't pull a Toshiba and just sit back and figure the format will grow without water and/or fertilizer!"

Toshiba has taken it's hit from the format war in the form of a financial write-off and is moving on. Sony, on the other hand, has a potential long-term gold mine with BD royalties, etc. BD success or failure will be the difference between a long term royalties revenue stream and an even bigger write-off by Sony.

The result will hopefully be stockholder pressure on both Sony and the movie studios to drop the movie prices to a level closer to SD-DVD. Publicity in the public press can cause stockholders to say to management "do you see what they are saying? So what are you going to do to make sure this doesn't happen?".

The same thing happens in other areas as well. Want something to change quickly? Sit down with the reporters from Sixty Minutes and let your story hit millions of homes on Sunday evening. By Tuesday or Wednesday the problem gets resolved. Publicly airing problems may cause a delay in BD becoming mainstream, but it may also force management to address some of the issues we have been discussing in this forum.

Lee Stewart
05-09-2008, 07:07 AM
Interesting, so the margins are higher on blu-ray despite higher production costs etc. If we can get a few more people buying into Blu-ray while the ISPs are farting around trying to get their connections more stable there could be a lucrative Blu-ray market.

Of course the margins are higher. The price of a BD is from $5 to $14 higher than the DVD counterpart.

:confused:

PFC5
05-09-2008, 08:29 AM
Stew4HD said "The big downside to all the negative open press is that J6P can see it. The more negatives spread around, the harder it will be for BD to get legs. It's one thing for us, here in this little forum to bring up the negatives (and positives ) but when the press is doing it... Not good. I hope BD doesn't pull a Toshiba and just sit back and figure the format will grow without water and/or fertilizer!"

Toshiba has taken it's hit from the format war in the form of a financial write-off and is moving on. Sony, on the other hand, has a potential long-term gold mine with BD royalties, etc. BD success or failure will be the difference between a long term royalties revenue stream and an even bigger write-off by Sony.

The result will hopefully be stockholder pressure on both Sony and the movie studios to drop the movie prices to a level closer to SD-DVD. Publicity in the public press can cause stockholders to say to management "do you see what they are saying? So what are you going to do to make sure this doesn't happen?".

The same thing happens in other areas as well. Want something to change quickly? Sit down with the reporters from Sixty Minutes and let your story hit millions of homes on Sunday evening. By Tuesday or Wednesday the problem gets resolved. Publicly airing problems may cause a delay in BD becoming mainstream, but it may also force management to address some of the issues we have been discussing in this forum.

I think we are already seeing the beginnings of Sony/BDA feeding positive info to the media to try to overcome the buildup of negative stories. The problem is, now that they are the only HDM game in town and they are the David in the David & Goliath story against SD DVD, I just hope they fight the battle with REAL changes, instead of just a lot of marketing crap.

Real problems exist so real solutions need to happen and not just marketing smokescreens, because if a year from now those same problems exist or don't get a lot smaller, all the marketing in the world won't help.

PFC5
05-09-2008, 08:42 AM
Interesting, so the margins are higher on blu-ray despite higher production costs etc. If we can get a few more people buying into Blu-ray while the ISPs are farting around trying to get their connections more stable there could be a lucrative Blu-ray market.

What that tells me is that studios are being greedy and there IS room to lower prices on BD discs if they want BD to grow faster and actually have a replacement revenue stream as SD DVD slowly shrinks in revenue streams. I think the same will be found looking at BD players as well.

I mean if Sony is accurate in their reports to be able to make the 40Gb PS3 for around $400.00 later this year, then these BD SAL players cannot cost more than likely $200.00 right now as a guess.

If both sides of the equation have these kinds of margins to play with they better adjust the prices or else they may squander a format and their future revenue streams just to try to squeeze the last few drops of profit margin for the short term now.

tvine2000
05-09-2008, 08:43 AM
Stew4HD said "The big downside to all the negative open press is that J6P can see it. The more negatives spread around, the harder it will be for BD to get legs. It's one thing for us, here in this little forum to bring up the negatives (and positives ) but when the press is doing it... Not good. I hope BD doesn't pull a Toshiba and just sit back and figure the format will grow without water and/or fertilizer!"

Toshiba has taken it's hit from the format war in the form of a financial write-off and is moving on. Sony, on the other hand, has a potential long-term gold mine with BD royalties, etc. BD success or failure will be the difference between a long term royalties revenue stream and an even bigger write-off by Sony.

The result will hopefully be stockholder pressure on both Sony and the movie studios to drop the movie prices to a level closer to SD-DVD. Publicity in the public press can cause stockholders to say to management "do you see what they are saying? So what are you going to do to make sure this doesn't happen?".

The same thing happens in other areas as well. Want something to change quickly? Sit down with the reporters from Sixty Minutes and let your story hit millions of homes on Sunday evening. By Tuesday or Wednesday the problem gets resolved. Publicly airing problems may cause a delay in BD becoming mainstream, but it may also force management to address some of the issues we have been discussing in this forum.

sounds like you want the job....go for it

bmore
05-09-2008, 08:45 AM
From the article:
The Blu-ray camp plans a mid-year marketing blitz

Let's see, that would coincide with when ALL studios are up and releasing on blu, right?

Has anyone stopped to think about why there was a slow down in bluray advertising/promotion? Besides the obvious that there is always more ads during the holidays, has anyone thought of any other valid reasons for them to quiet down for a bit since the end of the format war?

Here are my thoughts:
Obviously the BDA is always looking for new customers. But any time before all studios are releasing can still be considered a transitional period. Maybe the BDA is waiting until all studios have discs on the shelves to kick into high gear with their advertising, etc. No sense really in doing this now - when the studio situation is still the same as it was before Toshiba quit. This "excuse" will officially be over 7/22 when the first Universal title is released (Paramount titles will have been back on the shelves for 2 months by then). In July, all studios will be releasing, and bluray can truly start being compared to DVD in meaningful ways.

I think people hastily thought that with the end of the format war, there would be an instantaneous surge. But that doesn't even take into account the delay in the production of the former red studios - especially Universal. Obviously they were not going to have blu movies out on 2/19/08 - especially since it takes about 4-6 months to produce HDM discs (in most cases). I can't understand why everyone thought they would be a huge push, when it would take months for bluray to even have movies from all of the studios on the shelves.

I know I will probably get some of the "Just wait" lines that you guys love to use, but why would the BDA start their engines before all studios have product out?

As early adopters, we have been enjoying HDM for some time - but most others have not. Also as early adopters, we tend to be stuck in "full throttle" mode, where we want all new releases all the time, our favorite catalog titles right now, etc. But as early adopters our perspective is skewed to say the least.

The time period between 2/19/08 and June/July 2008 is not going to make or break bluray - especially when Q2 is not a strong quarter for such purchases (probably slightly better than Q1, but I can't imagine electronics purchases sell too well in the summer - most people enjoy the outdoors and take breaks from movies and video games).

Anyway - once all studios are producing, I expect to see much more advertising and such, like there was in Nov/Dec 2007.

Those $298 players at Walmart can't hurt either, in addition to the new players coming out from Samsung and Sony in the summer. And of course MGS4 will sell some PS3s.

I think some people have too high of expectation's - especially early adopters who don't see HDM as being "new" anymore (by virtue of us being "early", all of this stuff is old news by now). However - there are a lot of people out there that are brand new to all of this, and I think it makes sense to slow the ship down a little until all of the studios have their product out, and there is no more "Well Pirates of the Caribbean is on bluray, but Transformers is on HD DVD" confusion (Oh, and I am aware Transformers isn't on blu yet - it was just an example). By waiting until all studios have at least some blu movies out, it will prevent a lot of the lingering confusion from entering into the equation for new people. The format war will start to be ancient history, and people will forget that there were once two formats.

Obviously, the problem with this "strategy", if you will, is the BDA probably had to sacrifice a few months of slower sales to acheive this unified position.

But as the article says, don't be surprised if you see the worl d of blu pick up mid/late summer, and then steamroll into fall.

4 months of slow sales may be fuel for heated internet forum debate, but in the real world it does not amount to much, especially when the benefit will be having a unified product for the first time since HDM came out.

This is worth the wait imo. Slow sales in Feb 2008-June/July 2008 will not be the death of bluray, especially since those months are already the traditional slow retail months. In fact, if there were ever a time for a slow down/transitional period, now would be that time.

So I guess now it is time for you to proceed with your "Just wait" comments...even though I think I have presented a logical synopsis of events.

Just remember not everybody runs on "early adopter" time - in fact, the majority do not. And the majority is who the BDA will soon be targetting - as it has most early adopters in the bag already.

Nikopol
05-09-2008, 09:13 AM
The BDA was quite resourceful during the HDM wars, so maybe a strategy for post war marketing is "still being formulated" or they are indeed waiting for the dust to settle.

If they fire on all marketing cylinders going towards the holiday season 2008 and start the build-up to that in the summer, that would be a good thing. They can use the summer blockbusters, that will be released in the last quarter, to grab attention.

And the holiday season 2008 will bring the usual sales events.

PFC5
05-09-2008, 09:17 AM
From the article:


Let's see, that would coincide with when ALL studios are up and releasing on blu, right?

Has anyone stopped to think about why there was a slow down in bluray advertising/promotion? Besides the obvious that there is always more ads during the holidays, has anyone thought of any other valid reasons for them to quiet down for a bit since the end of the format war?

Here are my thoughts:
Obviously the BDA is always looking for new customers. But any time before all studios are releasing can still be considered a transitional period. Maybe the BDA is waiting until all studios have discs on the shelves to kick into high gear with their advertising, etc. No sense really in doing this now - when the studio situation is still the same as it was before Toshiba quit. This "excuse" will officially be over 7/22 when the first Universal title is released (Paramount titles will have been back on the shelves for 2 months by then). In July, all studios will be releasing, and bluray can truly start being compared to DVD in meaningful ways.

I think people hastily thought that with the end of the format war, there would be an instantaneous surge. But that doesn't even take into account the delay in the production of the former red studios - especially Universal. Obviously they were not going to have blu movies out on 2/19/08 - especially since it takes about 4-6 months to produce HDM discs (in most cases). I can't understand why everyone thought they would be a huge push, when it would take months for bluray to even have movies from all of the studios on the shelves.

I know I will probably get some of the "Just wait" lines that you guys love to use, but why would the BDA start their engines before all studios have product out?

As early adopters, we have been enjoying HDM for some time - but most others have not. Also as early adopters, we tend to be stuck in "full throttle" mode, where we want all new releases all the time, our favorite catalog titles right now, etc. But as early adopters our perspective is skewed to say the least.

The time period between 2/19/08 and June/July 2008 is not going to make or break bluray - especially when Q2 is not a strong quarter for such purchases (probably slightly better than Q1, but I can't imagine electronics purchases sell too well in the summer - most people enjoy the outdoors and take breaks from movies and video games).

Anyway - once all studios are producing, I expect to see much more advertising and such, like there was in Nov/Dec 2007.

Those $298 players at Walmart can't hurt either, in addition to the new players coming out from Samsung and Sony in the summer. And of course MGS4 will sell some PS3s.

I think some people have too high of expectation's - especially early adopters who don't see HDM as being "new" anymore (by virtue of us being "early", all of this stuff is old news by now). However - there are a lot of people out there that are brand new to all of this, and I think it makes sense to slow the ship down a little until all of the studios have their product out, and there is no more "Well Pirates of the Caribbean is on bluray, but Transformers is on HD DVD" confusion (Oh, and I am aware Transformers isn't on blu yet - it was just an example). By waiting until all studios have at least some blu movies out, it will prevent a lot of the lingering confusion from entering into the equation for new people. The format war will start to be ancient history, and people will forget that there were once two formats.

Obviously, the problem with this "strategy", if you will, is the BDA probably had to sacrifice a few months of slower sales to acheive this unified position.

But as the article says, don't be surprised if you see the worl d of blu pick up mid/late summer, and then steamroll into fall.

4 months of slow sales may be fuel for heated internet forum debate, but in the real world it does not amount to much, especially when the benefit will be having a unified product for the first time since HDM came out.

This is worth the wait imo. Slow sales in Feb 2008-June/July 2008 will not be the death of bluray, especially since those months are already the traditional slow retail months. In fact, if there were ever a time for a slow down/transitional period, now would be that time.

So I guess now it is time for you to proceed with your "Just wait" comments...even though I think I have presented a logical synopsis of events.

Just remember not everybody runs on "early adopter" time - in fact, the majority do not. And the majority is who the BDA will soon be targetting - as it has most early adopters in the bag already.

First let me say that I understand "some" of what you are saying, but it really makes no sense to me WHY the BDA would not TRY to sustain the momentum of winning the war instead of everyone taking a vacation in the BDA at the same time. Momentum is VERY hard to gain and once you have it, you should never squander it IMO.

On the "just wait" comments you made. This is what the BD fans have been saying and it is now just being parodied. I assume it was directed at the people who are parodying it, but the point is with BD we are always asked to just wait and see. It is a constant waiting game and under-delivery IMO.

Nikopol
05-09-2008, 09:28 AM
First let me say that I understand "some" of what you are saying, but it really makes no sense to me WHY the BDA would not TRY to sustain the momentum of winning the war instead of everyone taking a vacation in the BDA at the same time. Momentum is VERY hard to gain and once you have it, you should never squander it IMO.

On the "just wait" comments you made. This is what the BD fans have been saying and it is now just being parodied. I assume it was directed at the people who are parodying it, but the point is with BD we are always asked to just wait and see. It is a constant waiting game and under-delivery IMO.

As a side note and just to be fair, the HD DVD side was also playing the waiting game (wait for the TL51, wait for the effects of the $99 player sale, wait until the players under the christmas trees buy software, wait until there are no more BOGOs, wait, wait, wait...).

Not trying to bring the war back up again. The need to refer to "waiting " it is a direct result of the HDM world as a whole having an IMO slow start. There aren't the usual signs of momentum of a successful product, especially the media hype and the hype on a personal level, meaning the people around us, many of which do not show much enthusiasm for HDM.

I absolutely agree, that it is hard to understand why "winning the war" hasn't been more "celebrated" and mediatized. It feels like the BDA suddenly fell off the grid.

big IMO ;)

bmore
05-09-2008, 09:40 AM
First let me say that I understand "some" of what you are saying, but it really makes no sense to me WHY the BDA would not TRY to sustain the momentum of winning the war instead of everyone taking a vacation in the BDA at the same time. Momentum is VERY hard to gain and once you have it, you should never squander it IMO.

I can understand that logic to a certain degree...but I offer you this.

In any war - what happens after it is over?

The victors and the losers both regroup/recollect. There is a transition period. Momentum is hardly ever kept, as the climax was just breached. New policies are set into place. You don't just keep steam rolling. You need to sort out your losses, sort out your gains, and then march ahead. And this is exactly what we have seen with this war.

And in this case, the lack of Universal's blu experience would have served as a hinderance regardless, as I really think part of this "slow down" is the BDA wants to present unified studio support behind bluray, and they can not market that until July 22. That is completely new ground for HDM.

They are also waiting for new players to be ready I believe, amongst other things.

Also, none of this even takes into account the current economical situation, which serves as a roadblock to all consumer spending, but that is another topic.

Once again, I think too many of us have our watches set to "early adopter" time, which moves faster than "normal" time.

There are several logistical/strategy reasons why we are currently in a slow period, and not all of them have to do with potential failures on the behalf of the BDA.

As Nikopol said - the BDA won the war - obviously they are competent to a certain degree. A little faith in their abilities is deserved imo. Although I am sure that is hard to come by for some people who came out on the losing side of things, or have other "issues".

HD Goofnut
05-09-2008, 09:55 AM
I'll just keep playing the waiting game for Blu-ray.

ssjLancer
05-09-2008, 10:03 AM
Interesting, so the margins are higher on blu-ray despite higher production costs etc. If we can get a few more people buying into Blu-ray while the ISPs are farting around trying to get their connections more stable there could be a lucrative Blu-ray market.It was obvious.. for some reason some people here believed BDs cost around $17 to make and the studios were actually losing money making little plastic discs....

Lee Stewart
05-09-2008, 10:09 AM
It was obvious.. for some reason some people here believed BDs cost around $17 to make and the studios were actually losing money making little plastic discs....

Costs involved in making a BD:

1. Film transfer*
2. Compression
3. Authoring
4. Pressing masters (glass, father and son)
5. Disc replication

*Cost can be small - use existing IP or IN. Or it could be medium - strike a new IP or IN - or very large - film elements require restoration. Then during the transfer, luma and chroma have to be adjusted - frame by frame.

And remember - BD will show more defects in the elements/transfer then a DVD will.

ssjLancer
05-09-2008, 10:12 AM
Costs involved in making a BD:

1. Film transfer*
2. Compression
3. Authoring
4. Pressing masters (glass, father and son)
5. Disc replication

*Cost can be small - use existing IP or IN. Or it could be medium - strike a new IP or IN - or very large - film elements require restoration. Then during the transfer, luma and chroma have to be adjusted - frame by frame.

And remember - BD will show more defects in the elements/transfer then a DVD will.Oh lee just give it up. You said BDs cost around $17 to make and that DVDs had higher profit margins.
Everyone is wrong sometimes.. most of the time...

Not me though, Im always right.

hatt
05-09-2008, 10:52 AM
What that tells me is that studios are being greedy and there IS room to lower prices on BD discs if they want BD to grow faster and actually have a replacement revenue stream as SD DVD slowly shrinks in revenue streams. I think the same will be found looking at BD players as well.

I mean if Sony is accurate in their reports to be able to make the 40Gb PS3 for around $400.00 later this year, then these BD SAL players cannot cost more than likely $200.00 right now as a guess.

If both sides of the equation have these kinds of margins to play with they better adjust the prices or else they may squander a format and their future revenue streams just to try to squeeze the last few drops of profit margin for the short term now.The studios are likely trying to figure out the right price that their product will sell at. It is always going to be easier to set the price higher and lower it than set it low and raise it.

As far as SALs, letís say it cost your $200 to build one. What do you think the price should be at retail? Remember the CEM has to recoup their development costs along the way, make a profit, the retailer must make a profit, marketing and so on.

HD Goofnut
05-09-2008, 11:05 AM
The studios are likely trying to figure out the right price that their product will sell at. It is always going to be easier to set the price higher and lower it than set it low and raise it.

As far as SALs, letís say it cost your $200 to build one. What do you think the price should be at retail? Remember the CEM has to recoup their development costs along the way, make a profit, the retailer must make a profit, marketing and so on.

So you're just pulling $200 out of your hat? :lol: I couldn't resist that one. Anyway, I seriously doubt that it takes $200 to make a 1.0 or 1.1 Blu-ray player and if it did I would be shocked and tell them to start having them made in Taiwan and China.

hatt
05-09-2008, 11:23 AM
So you're just pulling $200 out of your hat? :lol: I couldn't resist that one. Anyway, I seriously doubt that it takes $200 to make a 1.0 or 1.1 Blu-ray player and if it did I would be shocked and tell them to start having them made in Taiwan and China.
It really sucks that you took me off ignore. See Stew took(could be back on now) me off ignore but that didn't bother me because Stew has something interesting to say a lot of the time. But anyway, read the quote in my post that your quoted and all will be revealed on how the $200 number came up.:hithere:

MikeRox
05-09-2008, 11:25 AM
Oh lee just give it up. You said BDs cost around $17 to make and that DVDs had higher profit margins.
Everyone is wrong sometimes.. most of the time...

Not me though, Im always right.

But I thought everybody said studios want downloads because the profit margins are higher? :p If they make $5 from $9.99 downloads, and pay $5 to produce a BD inc packaging and shipping then sell it for $17, that would suggest to me that there is a 2.4x greater profit margin on HDM than downloads.

Though I'm sure that profit margin is only once the cost of the transfer, extra features etc has been covered, so most HDM releases probably won't be turning a profit at all yet.

Lee Stewart
05-09-2008, 01:04 PM
Oh lee just give it up. You said BDs cost around $17 to make and that DVDs had higher profit margins.
Everyone is wrong sometimes.. most of the time...

Not me though, Im always right.

Please show my quote where I said a BD costs $17 to make.

You are not wrong this time. You are just making shit up - that's all.

ssjLancer
05-09-2008, 01:07 PM
Please show my quote where I said a BD costs $17 to make.

You are not wrong this time. You are just making shit up - that's all.umm ok.
Here is what I know:

In 2005 - it cost $9.00 to make a DVD. That included everything including the kitchen sink (Nes Pa?)

We know that it costs about $4 more to make a BD than it does a DVD (recent thread).

But that doesn't include all the programming and authoring which DVD doesn't have an BD does. Another $4 per disc (speculation)

That means we are at $20 to start with - studio gets half of MSRP. And we subtract [/b]$17[/b] . . . leaves $3.00 per disc.You said it costs $13 plus another $4 in extra programming and authoring.

Lee Stewart
05-09-2008, 01:50 PM
umm ok.
You said it costs $13 plus another $4 in extra programming and authoring.

Well - you are correct. I did speculate on the cost issue. Says so in B & W (I even used the word "speculation" you notice).

venomxr8
05-09-2008, 05:47 PM
The good thing is that even with all this negative press for blu ray lately, in the eyes of j6p since hddvd is gone blu ray is the percieved "winner" and will be seen as a successful product. Dont forget all the negative press leading up to and after the launch of the ps3. Ive never read so many bad articles about a piece of tech in my life as I did when the ps3 hit the streets but look at it now, its recently surpassed the xbox 360 in total sales in europe, its raking in the sales in Japan (compared to the 360 and yes i'll admit the wii is doing better but im not talking about the wii) and in the us it outsells the 360 every couple of months.

crazyal
05-09-2008, 06:26 PM
As a side note and just to be fair, the HD DVD side was also playing the waiting game (wait for the TL51, wait for the effects of the $99 player sale, wait until the players under the christmas trees buy software, wait until there are no more BOGOs, wait, wait, wait...).

Not trying to bring the war back up again. The need to refer to "waiting " it is a direct result of the HDM world as a whole having an IMO slow start. There aren't the usual signs of momentum of a successful product, especially the media hype and the hype on a personal level, meaning the people around us, many of which do not show much enthusiasm for HDM.

I absolutely agree, that it is hard to understand why "winning the war" hasn't been more "celebrated" and mediatized. It feels like the BDA suddenly fell off the grid.

big IMO ;)

And that how did all that waiting HD DVD did work out for them? A few months ago BD had the ball on the 1 yard line with a tie score in the super bowl. Toshiba had just walked off the field and all the BDA needed to do was walk that last yard and go to all the super bowl parties. Instead it's like they walked off the field too.

The last few months we should have seen a ton of BD ads letting people know there's no reason to wait. There's only one format now and it's going to replace DVD any day. Get people feeling that they need to upgrade or be left behind.

Why wait until this or that happens, strike while the iron was hot.

Stew4HD
05-09-2008, 06:28 PM
It really sucks that you took me off ignore. See Stew took(could be back on now) me off ignore but that didn't bother me because Stew has something interesting to say a lot of the time. But anyway, read the quote in my post that your quoted and all will be revealed on how the $200 number came up.:hithere:

Nah... I see ya :D and thanks for the compliment :hithere:

crazyal
05-09-2008, 06:38 PM
The Blu-ray camp plans a mid-year marketing blitz. And the studios are pinning their hopes on a new version of the Blu-ray technology called Profile 2.0. It will allow consumers to use their players to connect to the Web and partake of movie-related bonus feartures. Fox (NWS) is preparing to deploy a video game that viewers can play along with its Alien vs. Predator flick. Industry insiders say Disney (DIS) plans a range of interactive bells and whistles tied to its animated films that may include games and social networking.

Looks like the studios agree with those of us that have been saying all along that BD needs the 2.0 players. That $4 to $5 probably doesn't include things like extra features, shipping storage, etc. but just the cost to stamp the disc.

tvine2000
05-09-2008, 09:26 PM
The good thing is that even with all this negative press for blu ray lately, in the eyes of j6p since hddvd is gone blu ray is the percieved "winner" and will be seen as a successful product. Dont forget all the negative press leading up to and after the launch of the ps3. Ive never read so many bad articles about a piece of tech in my life as I did when the ps3 hit the streets but look at it now, its recently surpassed the xbox 360 in total sales in europe, its raking in the sales in Japan (compared to the 360 and yes i'll admit the wii is doing better but im not talking about the wii) and in the us it outsells the 360 every couple of months.

someone once told me good press or bad press,its press and your in the news,and sooner or later people will check you out to see what all the fuss is about. really blu-ray can't get hurt ether way.

ssjLancer
05-09-2008, 09:29 PM
someone once told me good press or bad press,its press and your in the news,and sooner or later people will check you out to see what all the fuss is about. really blu-ray can't get hurt ether way.Its like TMZ.. with or without your underwear, any publicity is good publicity.

tvine2000
05-09-2008, 09:33 PM
Its like TMZ.. with or without your underwear, any publicity is good publicity.

you got it !

PrinceLH
05-10-2008, 06:52 AM
The only thing that I've noticed about Blu Ray recently, is the margin difference between SD versions of new releases and the Blu Ray version. Used to be about $5.00, but now some have topped $13.00 for the same title. Looks more like gouging to me. I guess they must have attended a seminar, on how Oil revenues work, and applied it to their product. I'll also wait them out.

Liquidx
05-10-2008, 11:48 AM
The only thing that I've noticed about Blu Ray recently, is the margin difference between SD versions of new releases and the Blu Ray version. Used to be about $5.00, but now some have topped $13.00 for the same title. Looks more like gouging to me. I guess they must have attended a seminar, on how Oil revenues work, and applied it to their product. I'll also wait them out.

If only more BD supporters weren't blind to reality. Glad to see atleast one person who is pro-BD step up and call out the bullshit and not just the "bitter HD supporters" as they call us.

MikeRox
05-10-2008, 12:44 PM
Anyone who doesn't think the price difference for some movies is concerning needs their head examined.

The Golden Compass could be had for as little as £8 on DVD here when it came out last week, the cheapest I could find the BD version for was £23. Thats not much of a difference :S

PFC5
05-10-2008, 03:06 PM
Why complain Mike. That IS £1 short of triple? At least it wasn't triple. :D

Lee Stewart
05-10-2008, 03:22 PM
Why complain Mike. That IS £1 short of triple? At least it wasn't triple. :D

With price differences like that . . . BD can boast all they want about the sales of PS3's in Europe. And they better pray they buy games for them because they sure as hell aren't going to buy BD movies at those prices.

Cowboy X
05-10-2008, 09:11 PM
With price differences like that . . . BD can boast all they want about the sales of PS3's in Europe. And they better pray they buy games for them because they sure as hell aren't going to buy BD movies at those prices.

Nahh they will just do a percentage based survey of all of the Spiderman 3 Blu-Ray discs watched and declare the results to be representative.

The_Omega_Man
05-11-2008, 12:48 AM
I can understand that logic to a certain degree...but I offer you this.

In any war - what happens after it is over?

The victors and the losers both regroup/recollect. There is a transition period. Momentum is hardly ever kept, as the climax was just breached. New policies are set into place. You don't just keep steam rolling. You need to sort out your losses, sort out your gains, and then march ahead. And this is exactly what we have seen with this war.

And in this case, the lack of Universal's blu experience would have served as a hinderance regardless, as I really think part of this "slow down" is the BDA wants to present unified studio support behind bluray, and they can not market that until July 22. That is completely new ground for HDM.

They are also waiting for new players to be ready I believe, amongst other things.

Also, none of this even takes into account the current economical situation, which serves as a roadblock to all consumer spending, but that is another topic.

Once again, I think too many of us have our watches set to "early adopter" time, which moves faster than "normal" time.

There are several logistical/strategy reasons why we are currently in a slow period, and not all of them have to do with potential failures on the behalf of the BDA.

As Nikopol said - the BDA won the war - obviously they are competent to a certain degree. A little faith in their abilities is deserved imo. Although I am sure that is hard to come by for some people who came out on the losing side of things, or have other "issues".


We are in year 2 of the product being in the market space! There are millions of PS3s, there are millions of HDTVs in the wild. And you still feel that we are in the early adopter phases!?! :thatsit

The consumer interest is simply not there. The price points are the issue and they will always be the issue until something else is!

A blu-ray marketing push will spur some sales, but it will still be a disappointing year for HDM as a whole! IMO:cool:

dontknowjack
05-11-2008, 01:03 AM
Whenever a new product hits the market, it will be overpriced. Trouble is, how long will it remain high? BD is still in the safe zone when it comes to prices. But if it remains that way, it could become a problem. I am still willing to give it a chance. But not too long. Just my opinion.

Lee Stewart
05-11-2008, 04:24 AM
If we accept the price point of $199 for a player , as a mass adoption price point . . .

BD is not even close.

And mass adoption is more than the last 5 weeks of the year.

And that only addresses the cost of the players. The movies are a whole different problem with their high cost.

DrDre
05-11-2008, 03:40 PM
At my local Blockbuster there is only one rack of BD to rent. You can't even rent one, they are always out. It was the same thing with HD at one point. Its BS.

bmore
05-11-2008, 03:50 PM
We are in year 2 of the product being in the market space!

Question: At what point in this two years has one format had all studios releasing content?

What's that? It hasn't happened yet? And won't happen until July 22nd?

Oh - maybe we should wait until then to start making rash generalizations about things...


There are millions of PS3s, there are millions of HDTVs in the wild. And you still feel that we are in the early adopter phases!?! :thatsit

Millions, yet HDTV ownership still hovers at about 30%, right?

Meaning a MAJORITY of the market doesn't even have to equipment needed to take advantage of HDM.

Cart before the horse, no?

How can bluray be blamed when people don't even have HDTV's?

The consumer interest is simply not there. The price points are the issue and they will always be the issue until something else is!

I will agree with this.

But this would have been the same for HD DVD no?

I fail to see how this is a bluray problem, and not an HDM problem.

A blu-ray marketing push will spur some sales, but it will still be a disappointing year for HDM as a whole! IMO:cool:

What exactly is disappointing?

I mean, what amount of year over year growth will be sufficient for YOU?

You have no clue what the studios and CEs are looking for. No clue - but yet you just know that it will be disappointing...how, I really do not know...:rolleyes:

MikeRox
05-11-2008, 04:01 PM
Question: At what point in this two years has one format had all studios releasing content?

What's that? It hasn't happened yet? And won't happen until July 22nd?

Oh - maybe we should wait until then to start making rash generalizations about things...



Don't forget DVD didn't ahve all studio support for 2 years either ;)

Azul
05-11-2008, 04:14 PM
Bluray is currently losing momentum.
Let us hope this is just a temporary slowdown and not a full standstill

bmore
05-11-2008, 04:50 PM
Don't forget DVD didn't ahve all studio support for 2 years either ;)

And when did sales really start to take off for DVD?;)

Stew4HD
05-11-2008, 06:15 PM
And when did sales really start to take off for DVD?;)

:haha: And how much different was DVD to VHS.. oops... old argument

bmore
05-11-2008, 06:39 PM
:haha: And how much different was DVD to VHS.. oops... old argument

This argument applies to all HDM, once again, not bluray specific.

Regardless, the amount of people talking trash about bluray on this forum is astounding, especially when all of the studios won't even be releasing until late July.

Expect a big push in July and onward. Maybe you guys will actually have something new to complain about then.

Stew4HD
05-11-2008, 06:47 PM
This argument applies to all HDM, once again, not bluray specific.

Regardless, the amount of people talking trash about bluray on this forum is astounding, especially when all of the studios won't even be releasing until late July.

Expect a big push in July and onward. Maybe you guys will actually have something new to complain about then.

:crying: And your endless whining about us pointing out the problems with BD is astounding.... AKA broken record.

Please point out some good news about BD such as great pricing of players, wonderful selections of movies.. etc.. instead of whining all the time, I've run out of cheese to feed you...

ssjLancer
05-11-2008, 07:01 PM
Red: Movie and player prices are too high
Blue: BD is still new and and the format war just ended

Pretty much the same argument for the past few months.

Lee Stewart
05-11-2008, 07:41 PM
And when did sales really start to take off for DVD?;)

It's 3rd year.;)

http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/press/CES010807.htm

bmore
05-11-2008, 07:43 PM
Please point out some good news about BD such as great pricing of players, wonderful selections of movies.. etc.....

Both of those are highly subjective, and vary from person to person.

What is your magic price level/selection of movies?

Because I bet it is different than mine. And I bet mine is different than someone elses. Point being, those two factors depend on the individual.

Good news:
Paramount releases on 5/20, Universal on 7/22.

New players are coming out from Samsung and Sony soon.

Walmart, the world's largest retailer, is selling a $298 bluray player.

Feel free to add to the list...:cool:

bmore
05-11-2008, 07:44 PM
It's 3rd year.;)

http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/press/CES010807.htm

So then bluray has another year then, right?;)

Lee Stewart
05-11-2008, 07:48 PM
Both of those are highly subjective, and vary from person to person.

What is your magic price/selection of movies?

Because I bet it is different than mine. And I bet mine is different than someone else. Point being, those two factors depend on the individual.

Good news:
Paramount releases on 5/20, Universal on 7/22.

New players are coming out from Samsung and Sony soon.

Walmart, the world's largest retailer, is selling a $298 bluray player.

Feel free to add to the list...:cool:

Samsung - 1.1 player only ($400)

Magnavox (WM) - 1.1 player only ($298)

Sony - a 2.0 player at $500 and a mystery 1.1+ player for $400.

Hey - don't forget the $600 and $800 1.1 Pioneer players and the $700 Panasonic 2.0 player.

Yep . . . player prices are definitely too high.

bmore
05-11-2008, 07:54 PM
Samsung - 1.1 player only ($400)

Magnavox (WM) - 1.1 player only ($298)

Sony - a 2.0 player at $500 and a mystery 1.1+ player for $400.

Hey - don't forget the $600 and $800 1.1 Pioneer players and the $700 Panasonic 2.0 player.

Yep . . . player prices are definitely too high.

For you maybe, maybe not for others.

Like I said - subjective.

Also, see all of the bolded companies - that means industry support.

If we were talking about HD DVD, we would have had Toshiba. And that is it.

One of the many reasons why HD DVD died...

Lee Stewart
05-11-2008, 07:55 PM
For you maybe, maybe not for others.

Like I said - subjective.

Also, see all of the bolded companies - that means industry support.

If we were talking about HD DVD, we would have had Toshiba. And that is it.

One of the many reasons why HD DVD died...

You really are posting like a broken record.

The format war is over . . .

Psssst . . . . BD won.

That wasn't enough for you?

Move on!

bmore
05-11-2008, 07:57 PM
You really are posting like a broken record.

The format war is over . . .

Psssst . . . . BD won.

That wasn't enough for you?

Move on!

A broken record of facts.

Maybe that is why you don't like to hear it???

Lee Stewart
05-11-2008, 08:02 PM
A broken record of facts.

Maybe that is why you don't like to hear it???

It's ancient history. Like I said . . .

Move on!

bmore
05-11-2008, 08:04 PM
It's ancient history. Like I said . . .

Move on!

A lot of things are ancient history. Doesn't mean they still don't hold truth.

HD DVD lacked CE support. BLuray did not. History, yes. But still true.

Stew4HD
05-11-2008, 08:26 PM
A lot of things are ancient history. Doesn't mean they still don't hold truth.

HD DVD lacked CE support. BLuray did not. History, yes. But still true.

What are you trying to prove here at HDF? That you can continue the format war rhetoric?

Nothing new here... :rolleyes:

Lee Stewart
05-11-2008, 08:51 PM
A lot of things are ancient history. Doesn't mean they still don't hold truth.

HD DVD lacked CE support. BLuray did not. History, yes. But still true.

And VHS beat the piss out of Betamax.

Like I said . . .

:banghead:

PFC5
05-11-2008, 10:15 PM
For you maybe, maybe not for others.

Like I said - subjective.

Also, see all of the bolded companies - that means industry support.

If we were talking about HD DVD, we would have had Toshiba. And that is it.

One of the many reasons why HD DVD died...

I would say you would be lucky to find 5% of the population who thinks the BD player prices are not too high. ;)

So prices are only subjective to 5% of the population. For the vast majority of the population the prices are too high. I think if they were not too high, then they would have sold a tin more BD players so far. :hithere: :D

SLedford
05-12-2008, 06:48 AM
I see a lot of disagreement on this forum, more when the format war was in place. But one point that I think 99% of the people can agree on is the THE PRICES ARE TOO HIGH if BD is to replace SD-DVD or to become "mainstream".

Now if the existing players (studios, Sony, hardware makers) are satisfied with a smaller and possibly more profitable (on a per item basis) niche market, then the current prices are fine.

BD as a product is fine - I don't see anyone here ripping the product. I have been happy with my PS3 and the movies I have purchased.

Want some good news about BD? How about movie sales jumping by a large amount? Or players going out the door faster than they can bring them in? Then cut the prices on both the players and movies! I will jump all over movies at $15 - $20 but am not going to pay over $30, which is what some are currently priced at BB.

MikeRox
05-12-2008, 07:56 AM
Or players going out the door faster than they can bring them in?

I actually got the impression that, that was misinterpreted. The Fox exec appeared to be more bemoaning that retailers only carried 1 or 2 different Blu-ray player models (out of all the ones availible) rather than there were none in stock anywhere.

Thats definitely the thing over here, go to any local CE retailer, you're actually lucky to find a Blu-ray player stocked by the store (1 tops normally) if they have 2 or 3, they have a "wide selection" of Blu-ray players.

It does concern me, because I do remember even early in DVD's life, CE retailers were stocking around 7-10 players with a dedicated "DVD players" shelf/section. It just doesn't seem to be happening for Blu-ray right now and it doesn't help that when they are on shelves, there is no differentiation for them compared with DVD players on the shelves except on the ticket in small print. HD DVD suffered from the same irritating problem when it was around too, its something that needs solving ASAP though.

HD Goofnut
05-12-2008, 08:15 AM
I actually got the impression that, that was misinterpreted. The Fox exec appeared to be more bemoaning that retailers only carried 1 or 2 different Blu-ray player models (out of all the ones availible) rather than there were none in stock anywhere.

Thats definitely the thing over here, go to any local CE retailer, you're actually lucky to find a Blu-ray player stocked by the store (1 tops normally) if they have 2 or 3, they have a "wide selection" of Blu-ray players.

It does concern me, because I do remember even early in DVD's life, CE retailers were stocking around 7-10 players with a dedicated "DVD players" shelf/section. It just doesn't seem to be happening for Blu-ray right now and it doesn't help that when they are on shelves, there is no differentiation for them compared with DVD players on the shelves except on the ticket in small print. HD DVD suffered from the same irritating problem when it was around too, its something that needs solving ASAP though.

I can see the point here Mike. My local Wal-Mart stores do not carry but about 2 BD players other than the PS3. All Best Buy has is the PS3, 2 SAs, and the LG and Samsung DF for way too much money.

Soul
05-12-2008, 12:03 PM
I agree prices are just way too high for this market. If I'm Jo Blo and I'm struggling with my bills, my job is looking shaky in the face of cutbacks, and I've still got my house & car payments?

Yeah. I'm scratching the new BD player off the list for now.

It's really, really bad timing for BD to have an economic slowdown looming just as the format war was won. Actually, it's the worst timing imaginable.

It would help to get a really cheap standalone BD player on the market sooner rather than later. And bargain price the BD discs that aren't new releases. $30 for BDs that are old movies, don't look that great on BD anyway, and aren't selling a lick is really ridiculous to most people. No one can blame them for turning up their noses.

hatt
05-12-2008, 12:07 PM
I would say you would be lucky to find 5% of the population who thinks the BD player prices are not too high. ;)

So prices are only subjective to 5% of the population. For the vast majority of the population the prices are too high. I think if they were not too high, then they would have sold a tin more BD players so far. :hithere: :D:horse: Take out "BD player" and insert any of the following: DVD, VHS, plasma, or LCD. At the end of the sentence add "at the same point in their lifecycle." Tell me if those statements are not also true if your post is true.

PFC5
05-12-2008, 01:45 PM
:horse: Take out "BD player" and insert any of the following: DVD, VHS, plasma, or LCD. At the end of the sentence add "at the same point in their lifecycle." Tell me if those statements are not also true if your post is true.

Just an FYI. I bought a SD DVD (still works and in use in a kids bedroom) in 1999 for just under $300.00.

You cannot compare the price 2 years in on BD players that went from as high as $1,500.00 to a plasma that cost $20,000.00 when released. Ditto for LCDs. VCRs did cost a lot back then but remember that VCRs WERE revolutionary at the time. There was no cable TV that played the same movies etc. repeatedly to see so the recording feature to time shift WAS a higher priority then.

None of that really matters though as people decide what price they will pay for something and the vast majority are not going to buy BD players/movies at current prices. It doesn't mean that none of them see any value in a BD player/movie, but that most do not think the improvement is worth the current high price. ;)

I have no doubt prices will come down and most likely they will come down to levels that many more people will buy in at some point. That point is just not here yet and may not come quick enough is what I am saying.

We can argue that the prices are "fair" given the tech, and the amount of time it has been on the market but that doesn't change whether it is at a price point that people will buy into BD. With the economy likely to get worse before it gets better, I would guess the likely entry price keeps going down, just like it is doing for other "luxury" items.