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Samsung bullish on Blu-ray market

Nikopol
04-28-2008, 01:54 AM
Jun Dong-soo, chief of Samsung's digital audio-video business, said Monday that he expects the global market to grow at least 80 percent each year through 2012, with worldwide annual sales of 51 million players by that time.

Jun added that 5 million Blu-ray products were likely to sold this year, or three times more than last year, though he also characterized such an estimate as conservative.

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/04/28/ap4939173.html

ssjLancer
04-28-2008, 02:35 AM
5 million + 12 million PS3 consoles

Lookin good.

Lee Stewart
04-28-2008, 05:41 AM
5 million + 12 million PS3 consoles

Lookin good.

5 million SAL's?

At $400 each?

:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

MikeRox
04-28-2008, 07:16 AM
Worldwide market lee, not just the US. That $400 is actually pretty cheap for a player over here (and you can get Blu-ray players for less than HD DVD was before the desperation pricing in January).

crazyal
04-28-2008, 09:00 AM
Can anyone make sense of this quote:
Jun added that 5 million Blu-ray products were likely to sold this year, or three times more than last year, though he also characterized such an estimate as conservative.
Did Blu-Ray sell 1.6million SA players last year? If not the what "Blu-Ray products" is he talking about? Or is his year not from January to December? Just not sure what to make of this.

HD Goofnut
04-28-2008, 09:08 AM
I just find it hard to believe that that many SA Blu-ray players will be sold at $400+ a piece. Even if Europeans consider that cheap that still won't generate the numbers they are projecting. Electronics companies seem to forget that gas is $9.00 a gallon in Europe and nearly $4.00 a gallon in the U.S.

Lee Stewart
04-28-2008, 09:52 AM
Bluray products:

PS3's
SAL's
PC's

It is the last one that is playing havoc with the numbers. In an effort to put BD in the very best light . . . they are now counting PC products with BD drives in them as BD players - even though there is not a shread of evidence that BD equipped PC owners buy BD movies to play on their PC's.

railven
04-28-2008, 10:40 AM
Bluray products:

PS3's
SAL's
PC's

It is the last one that is playing havoc with the numbers. In an effort to put BD in the very best light . . . they are now counting PC products with BD drives in them as BD players - even though there is not a shread of evidence that BD equipped PC owners buy BD movies to play on their PC's.

Regardless, technically they are BD-Players.

Just wait and you can throw attach rates around to offset that inclusion.

Lee Stewart
04-28-2008, 11:03 AM
Regardless, technically they are BD-Players.

Just wait and you can throw attach rates around to offset that inclusion.

Technically?

OK . . .

There are over 250 million DVD players in the USA and over 500 million WW.

Let me know when you want to add game consoles to those numbers.;)

ssjLancer
04-28-2008, 12:53 PM
5 million SAL's?

At $400 each?

:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:Just 3 times more than last year. Should be easy to pull off. Like the samsung guy said that was just a 'conservative' estimate.

Can anyone make sense of this quote:

Did Blu-Ray sell 1.6million SA players last year? If not the what "Blu-Ray products" is he talking about? Or is his year not from January to December? Just not sure what to make of this.Correct. Though I think the exact number was 1.4 or 1.5 million.

Lee Stewart
04-28-2008, 01:04 PM
Just 3 times more than last year. Should be easy to pull off. Like the samsung guy said that was just a 'conservative' estimate.

Correct. Though I think the exact number was 1.4 or 1.5 million.

*cough* . . . Bullsh*t! . . . *cough*

Link that shows that 1.7 million BD SAL's were sold from 1/1/07 to 12/31/07.

ssjLancer
04-28-2008, 01:21 PM
*cough* . . . Bullsh*t! . . . *cough*

Link that shows that 1.7 million BD SAL's were sold from 1/1/07 to 12/31/07.These arent new numbers.. but sure, Ill try and dig up the old old thread that said BR SA's sold over 1 million world wide in 2007. Ill do it later though.

HD Goofnut
04-28-2008, 01:44 PM
These arent new numbers.. but sure, Ill try and dig up the old old thread that said BR SA's sold over 1 million world wide in 2007. Ill do it later though.

Now wait a second you are changing your story. First you said 1.5 then 1.7 and now you are saying more than 1 million. Make up your mind and then when/if you find a link then post it.

ssjLancer
04-28-2008, 01:46 PM
Now wait a second you are changing your story. First you said 1.5 then 1.7 and now you are saying more than 1 million. Make up your mind and then when/if you find a link then post it.I never made up my mind, thats why I said 'I think.'
And it was lee that said 1.7 even though its obvious the samsung guy was just giving a loose estimate with the '3 times' number.

Lee Stewart
04-28-2008, 02:06 PM
I never made up my mind, thats why I said 'I think.'
And it was lee that said 1.7 even though its obvious the samsung guy was just giving a loose estimate with the '3 times' number.

My post:

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart
5 million SAL's?

At $400 each?

:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Your response to MY post:

Just 3 times more than last year. Should be easy to pull off. Like the samsung guy said that was just a 'conservative' estimate.

BOLD: Your stance on the estimated number of WW SAL sales for 2008

:confused:

ssjLancer
04-28-2008, 02:07 PM
My post:


Your respose to MY post:



BOLD: Your stance on the estimated number of WW SAL sales for 2008

:confused:Correct.
But goofy was asking me my stance on the number of SAL sales in 2007 so I have no idea why you quoted that reply.

Lee Stewart
04-28-2008, 02:12 PM
Correct.
But goofy was asking me my stance on the number of SAL sales in 2007 so I have no idea why you quoted that reply.

Why?

Because you agreed with the quote the Samsung guy made . . . which is based on 1.7 million SAL's being sold WW in 2007.

PFC5
04-28-2008, 02:21 PM
I can see/remember, they had stated that they sold about 1 million SAL BD players which was about even with the HD DVD players sold by the end of the year, but that was since launch for both formats not just 2007.

One thing that I see as happening with the BD format is that they are selling about the same number of BD players (excluding the PS3) as the SD DVD player numbers during the same time since launch, but the actual BD movie sales are lower than they were for SD DVD movies during the same time frame.

That is how it APPEARS to be going, but without them actually releasing unit sales of BD movies we will not know for a while. I guess this is how the BDA wants it to be until the numbers actually look better.

ssjLancer
04-28-2008, 02:23 PM
Why?

Because you agreed with the quote the Samsung guy made . . . which is based on 1.7 million SAL's being sold WW in 2007.Nope.
I agreed that it should be over 5 million and that it'll be at least 3x the number of 2007. Thats the great thing about estimates you see, they arent concrete.

PFC5
04-28-2008, 02:32 PM
Nope.
I agreed that it should be over 5 million and that it'll be at least 3x the number of 2007. Thats the great thing about estimates you see, they arent concrete.

This is WHY I do not put much weight on the Samsung exec's "projections" at this point. I hope he is correct, but I think it is more cheerleading than anything else right now.

Dare
04-28-2008, 02:37 PM
Bluray products:

PS3's
SAL's
PC's

It is the last one that is playing havoc with the numbers. In an effort to put BD in the very best light . . . they are now counting PC products with BD drives in them as BD players - even though there is not a shread of evidence that BD equipped PC owners buy BD movies to play on their PC's.

I have some evidence. All I have to do it turn my head and look at the PC hooked up to my TV. :D

But good luck counting everyone who does that. The attach rates are no doubt way worse than PS3's attach rate. Most PC BD drives are burners used for storage. I guess all you can really be sure about counting are the separate BD read-only drives, because what else would you use those for?

BD-enabled HTPCs would be a niche within a niche.

Bravestime
04-28-2008, 06:15 PM
One thing to keep in mind is that Blu SAL price will come down slowly. Expect Christmas to also have a good spike in sales. Don't automatically assume the $400 SAL blu price will remain. They may very well be projecting player prices to drop to J6P range by the end of 2008.

Dare
04-28-2008, 06:50 PM
Price isn't such a factor for people who are truly interested. It isn't like players cost tens of thousands.

What would really push sales is the decision that Blu-ray really does open up a whole new world, and not that it's just an extra whistle that is mostly redundant and isn't worth bothering with.

Stew4HD
04-28-2008, 07:00 PM
Price isn't such a factor for people who are truly interested. It isn't like players cost tens of thousands.

What would really push sales is the decision that Blu-ray really does open up a whole new world, and not that it's just an extra whistle that is mostly redundant and isn't worth bothering with.

And what whole new world is opened up by Blu? HD is is a whole new world? :what:

PFC5
04-28-2008, 07:06 PM
One thing to keep in mind is that Blu SAL price will come down slowly. Expect Christmas to also have a good spike in sales. Don't automatically assume the $400 SAL blu price will remain. They may very well be projecting player prices to drop to J6P range by the end of 2008.

I doubt that will happen, unless you think J6P pricing is around $300.00. ;)

I think prices will have to be around $200.00 with the holiday sale pricing to really get the SAL BD players selling well to the higher end of the J6P market. The problem is a multiple of things that I think will make that not very likely (but I hope I am wrong). They are:

1. The USD dropping against other currencies will possibly thwart that happening.

2. If they DO get some SAL BD players down to around $200.00 it will likely be profile 1.0 players that they can continue to make and sell as long as the model was "introduced" by 10/31/07. These will likely have most of the R&D recovered so they can mfg & drop the prices more, but they may be more expensive to make with less integration of the chips used.

3. The profile 2.0 SAL BD players will likely carry at least a $100.00+ premium but I would guess about a $150.00 premium being the most likely excluding the Denon/Pioneer models which will carry a much higher premium IMO.

4. As I have said before, I believe the CE companies at this point have opposite goals of the BD studios. The CE companies want to keep prices as high as they can (their words) for as long as they can. The studios want the SAL BD player prices to get low fast so they can sell a ton of BD movie discs.

5. At some point I can see the studios threatening to stop or at least slow down BD releases unless the CE companies get SAL BD player prices lower. This (pure speculation on my part) could already be happening. It seems only Sony studios are releasing movies with any decent title volume since the war has ended.

Warner spoke about a small window for HDM to take off as a major reason WHY they ended being neutral, and I believe they were correct about that. I think if the CE companies do not lower prices soon, then their greed will limit both the acceptance of BD and the number of titles we end up seeing on BD in the coming years. If BD remains a small niche like it is now, it may have a short life of even getting all the blockbuster d/d titles in the years to come.

Who knows, maybe only the PS3 demographic type movies will end up being released at some point. I know I would not want this to happen and others who like the more obscure titles will truly hate this happening.

kamspy
04-28-2008, 08:08 PM
I can see/remember, they had stated that they sold about 1 million SAL BD players which was about even with the HD DVD players sold by the end of the year, but that was since launch for both formats not just 2007.

One thing that I see as happening with the BD format is that they are selling about the same number of BD players (excluding the PS3) as the SD DVD player numbers during the same time since launch, but the actual BD movie sales are lower than they were for SD DVD movies during the same time frame.

That is how it APPEARS to be going, but without them actually releasing unit sales of BD movies we will not know for a while. I guess this is how the BDA wants it to be until the numbers actually look better.

I think a lot of that has to do with BD players playing DVDs. If ALL first gen DVD players had a VHS deck in them, I think the software sales wouldn't have had the same volume. Who knows.

I think (hope) the studios and CEMs will get on the same page and push DVD out of the market. It benefits both the studios and the CEMs. There are greater profits to be had with BD(CEMs), and they are harder to pirate(studios/retailers)

Now, I don't have the faintest clue if the benefactors want to do this. But I DO THINK, that if studios stopped releasing new releases on DVD, more people would buy BD players.

Is that good for the average consumer who doesn't care about HD? Hell no. But is does benefit the parties involved.

I don't see it happening until SAL BD players can be had for $99. To do this CEMs need to produce a budget line series of players like Toshiba did and liquidate the 1.0 players once everyone involved has their 1.1/2.0 player out on the market.

Then there's replication cost. That could be offset by releasing budget titles that have 2-3 movies on one disc.

I know I wouldn't buy a $30 Dora BD for my daughter if it had the status quo 3 episodes on it....but they could cram 12 episodes easily on one and I'd spring for that.

PFC5
04-28-2008, 08:32 PM
The problem with discontinuing the SD DVD discs is that this IS NOT good for the average consumer at this point. Like you said, this likely would not happen until BD players are down to $99.00 for at least a budget player. And it SHOULD NOT happen until then IMO.

I think the studios would be smarter to just release the BD version 1 week before the SD version, but I do not see that happening until BD SAL player prices are under $200.00 or even lower, before they would think about doing something like this. The problem is that SD DVD is currently the golden egg, and they do not want to kill the goose and they shouldn't too soon IMO.

Replication is another problem that they NEED to solve for BD to ever get to mainstream. Average people will just buy a lot less movies if prices stay at this current BD price point.

It is just another adage about putting the cart before the horse though. Both the studios AND the CE mfg must decide if they want HDM to become a hit or if niche is what they want. Their actions tell me the CE mfg do not have a problem with niche, but I am sure the studios will not stand for this with the extra work required to create a GOOD HD movie release.

Will the studios just do nothing to clean up the masters and release them "as is" if the BD player numbers do not grow a lot soon? This might be a way for the studios to get a HDM release out for cheaper money while the BD format grows, so they can double dip later like they did with SD DVD in the early years. The problem with that is that with a lesser improvement over the SD version if they did that, even less BD movies would be sold I think. People would not bother if the improvement wasn't substantial like it is now.

I think the best answer is for CE companies to bite the bullet for 1 more year and drop the SAL BD player prices by at least $100.00 and then recoup that by slowing down the price drops over the next year following that as they get costs down. Then studios could lower the price of BD movies some with the higher volumes of replication and the replication costs would go down also.

I really think it is the BD CE companies format to lose at this point. They have to show the studios that THEY want BD to be a success and are willing to eat some more costs, if they want the studios to also eat some costs. No question the studios need to eat some too since they get the benefit of a more secure format as a result.

Now WILL the parties actually do this quick enough? That is the $20,000.00 question my friend. ;)

pearl-drum-man
04-28-2008, 08:39 PM
Electronics companies seem to forget that gas is $9.00 a gallon in Europe and nearly $4.00 a gallon in the U.S.

Yeah, but it's only 12-14 cents/GAL in Venezuela, expect them to pick up the slack :)

PFC5
04-28-2008, 08:51 PM
Yeah, but it's only 12-14 cents/GAL in Venezuela, expect them to pick up the slack :)

I guess we can all sell our gas guzzler vehicles to them now. :lol:

Dare
04-29-2008, 02:25 AM
And what whole new world is opened up by Blu? HD is is a whole new world? :what:

Ah, you understand. :)

Dare
04-29-2008, 02:33 AM
The problem with discontinuing the SD DVD discs is that this IS NOT good for the average consumer at this point. Like you said, this likely would not happen until BD players are down to $99.00 for at least a budget player. And it SHOULD NOT happen until then IMO.

I think the studios would be smarter to just release the BD version 1 week before the SD version, but I do not see that happening until BD SAL player prices are under $200.00 or even lower, before they would think about doing something like this. The problem is that SD DVD is currently the golden egg, and they do not want to kill the goose and they shouldn't too soon IMO.


I think you're a little off there. BD won't get priority when the player prices are lower. They will get priority if there are more BD players than DVD players, and more BDs than DVDs are sold.

CE's don't push. They can't. CE's offer, and consumers pull. Or not. Success is not driven by the CE's. If it was, then no CE product would ever fail. But that is obviously not the case.

MikeRox
04-29-2008, 02:57 AM
Studios can push to some extent. It'd likely be tied in with BDA marketing money though. But releasing a film early, if there is a cheap BD player on the market, people wanting the film badly enough could be "nudged" towards Blu-ray, it would add to the desirability.

Getting films "early" would be a big bullet point to go beside "High Def Picture and Audio". I can't see it happening anytime soon though, if ever.

dsskid
04-29-2008, 06:16 AM
Geez, you can't post anything positive regarding BD around here without a fight erupting from the HD DVD lovers around here.

Give it a rest already.

Nikopol
04-29-2008, 06:44 AM
Geez, you can't post anything positive regarding BD around here without a fight erupting from the HD DVD lovers around here.

Give it a rest already.

LOL

Welcome to HDF! :thumbsup: :yippee:

I think last year was much worse, but i was a HD DVD *lover* back then, so i wouldn't know.... :p

Stew4HD
04-29-2008, 07:30 AM
Geez, you can't post anything positive regarding BD around here without a fight erupting from the HD DVD lovers around here.

Give it a rest already.

Wow... and the problem is? Geez, we can't post anything negative regarding BD without a fight erupting from the BD lovers around here.

Give it a rest already. :what: BD won, why care what HD DVD lovers say, unless the truth bothers you.

dsskid
04-29-2008, 08:22 AM
The truth doesn't bother me, but the constant negativity does. It serves no purpose. It's almost as if HD DVD lovers are on a crusade to see the demise of BD. What is to be gained by the loss of HDM? Instead, why not concentrate your efforts in supporting it.

Stew4HD
04-29-2008, 08:36 AM
The truth doesn't bother me, but the constant negativity does. It serves no purpose. It's almost as if HD DVD lovers are on a crusade to see the demise of BD. What is to be gained by the loss of HDM? Instead, why not concentrate your efforts in supporting it.

The constant negatives you speak are faults of BD being pointed out. I see no one saying BD sucks, BD is bad.. nope, just that it costs too much for mass adoption, the PS3 shouldn't be the best BD player but it is and will be for some time.. etc.

So, we should just tell everyone to buy, buy, buy without regard to things BD needs to do to improve and sell better?

I support BD, most here do, those that haven't bought state that they WILL when the price comes down. HD DVD supporters were spoiled by great pricing and great quality. What is wrong with expecting a more expensive format to do the same?

There will always be detractors, no matter what happens.

HD Goofnut
04-29-2008, 08:37 AM
The truth doesn't bother me, but the constant negativity does. It serves no purpose. It's almost as if HD DVD lovers are on a crusade to see the demise of BD. What is to be gained by the loss of HDM? Instead, why not concentrate your efforts in supporting it.

The demise of BD? No, of course not. The demise of Sony? Sure, I would welcome that. I would much rather the best Blu-ray player NOT be a gaming console and I know for a fact that a lot of other people feel the same way. I am a PC gamer and I always have been so the idea of a gaming console hooked up to my HDTV where its games cost $60 bucks a piece is outrageous. I can buy PC games for half the price or less and the graphics are better since I have a good video card and plenty of RAM.

Nikopol
04-29-2008, 08:45 AM
There is not much unconditional love for Blu-ray here. Hasn't been in the past as long as i've been here and i am not so sure about the future.

Many here aren't either black or white, red or blu but all kinds of shades of purple // grey.

See, i love the discs and the movies. Absolutely great stuff, i tend to buy more of them than i should afford.... :lol: :lol: :lol:

The hardware? Not very exciting for me, won't go into the details but i'll keep my "interim" Blu-ray htpc for much longer than i initially planned.

The torrent of marketing b.s. and smoke and mirrors we are being showered with? Or the war tactics of last year? Pleeeeeeease, just because blu "won" doesn't mean i should now embrace what i didn't like last year. I can only hope they use the same strenght that put them ahead of HD DVD as a final result to the growth of Blu-ray.....

I guess it's a love&hate relationship for some of us. :p

Stew4HD
04-29-2008, 08:54 AM
There is not much unconditional love for Blu-ray here. Hasn't been in the past as long as i've been here and i am not so sure about the future.

Many here aren't either black or white, red or blu but all kinds of shades of purple // grey.

See, i love the discs and the movies. Absolutely great stuff, i tend to buy more of them than i should afford.... :lol: :lol: :lol:

The hardware? Not very exciting for me, won't go into the details but i'll keep my "interim" Blu-ray htpc for much longer than i initially planned.

The torrent of marketing b.s. and smoke and mirrors we are being showered with? Or the war tactics of last year? Pleeeeeeease, just because blu "won" doesn't mean i should now embrace what i didn't like last year. I can only hope they use the same strenght that put them ahead of HD DVD as a final result to the growth of Blu-ray.....

I guess it's a love&hate relationship for some of us. :p

:thumbsup: Nik, well put, as usual! I don't love BD but love HD, so BD is my only choice. Love/hate.. :D

Dare
04-29-2008, 09:50 AM
Studios can push to some extent. It'd likely be tied in with BDA marketing money though. But releasing a film early, if there is a cheap BD player on the market, people wanting the film badly enough could be "nudged" towards Blu-ray, it would add to the desirability.

Getting films "early" would be a big bullet point to go beside "High Def Picture and Audio". I can't see it happening anytime soon though, if ever.

What you're talking about is the studios offering, not pushing. Suppose that offer earns them anger, or worse, crickets? Anything that even seems to taper their flow of cash will be tossed out like yesterday's garbage. Nobody is going to take a hit for ideals.

I can't see the studios pushing Blu-ray like that either. And there's a spectacular reason why. Please don't go holding your breath. :)

Dare
04-29-2008, 09:56 AM
The truth doesn't bother me, but the constant negativity does. It serves no purpose. It's almost as if HD DVD lovers are on a crusade to see the demise of BD. What is to be gained by the loss of HDM? Instead, why not concentrate your efforts in supporting it.

No, it's about staying in touch with reality. There are some serious issues in the way of Blu-ray's success, and those issues can never be addressed unless we take off the blu colored glasses and understand exactly what's going on. Maybe there is no solution to its problems, since most of the issues facing it are beyond the industry's control. Technically there is very little wrong with it. Marketing is about as good as it can be. It's pretty much all up to whether the public wants it.

I don't think you're going to get anyone in this forum to say they don't like Blu-ray.