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Is 2012 the last 'big' year for Blu-ray before it's all downhill?

GizmoDVD
09-02-2012, 08:33 AM
Is it?

This year we had, and will have, several major catalog tentpole releases that members here have been clamoring for for years.

Jaws. Finding Nemo. Indiana Jones. E.T.

I wonder...what's next? What major catalog title has yet to be released that will suddenty get people off the fence?

Now Theatrical.

We've had/will have:
The Avengers
The Dark Knight: Rises
The Hunger Games

Is this the final year for Blu-rays "growth"? Or will studios kill off the DVD SKU as much as possible and pack them with Blu-rays (which artificially, as we currently know, boosts Blu-ray revenue).

bruceames
09-02-2012, 08:58 AM
Strong selling catalogs (except a few by Disney) will be gone after this year. DVD was fortunate in that TV shows were able to fill the void when their catalog well started to go dry. But catalog TV on Blu-ray never got off the ground (and it won't because TV shows are too popular for streaming and because TV on DVD is so saturated). HBO won't even release the back seasons of The Sopranos (except season 1), so sales must really be bad.

Since Blu-ray is a new release format, growth next year will depend on how well next year's releases stack up against this year. But unless they sell more, then we'll probably see a decline because of continued catalog price erosion and the fact that there will be nothing to replace the top selling catalogs of this year.

elwaylite
09-02-2012, 09:03 AM
I have bought very little catalog movies on blu.

Blu is basically a way for me to enjoy a new release movie on my HT, granted I do throw in the occasional oldie but goodie.

What did blu did for me, along with a big screen, was allow me to greatly enjoy a movie at home, as opposed to our weekly Sunday trip to the theater. It was a routine, that slowly started dying off in 2009 or so, and now it's maybe 2-3 times a year. I just do not enjoy going to either of my local theaters.

morriscroy
09-02-2012, 09:48 AM
What did blu did for me, along with a big screen, was allow me to greatly enjoy a movie at home, as opposed to our weekly Sunday trip to the theater. It was a routine, that slowly started dying off in 2009 or so, and now it's maybe 2-3 times a year. I just do not enjoy going to either of my local theaters.

Similar story here, but a decade earlier for me.

I stopped going to the theater regularly sometime in 1999.

elwaylite
09-02-2012, 10:02 AM
I stopped for awhile, around 2000, when I jumped on Netflix and DVD, but they sucked me back in around 2006 when the new digital DLP projectors were hitting local theaters, great PQ and I only had a 42" at home :) using tv speakers.

morriscroy
09-02-2012, 10:08 AM
Since Blu-ray is a new release format, growth next year will depend on how well next year's releases stack up against this year. But unless they sell more, then we'll probably see a decline because of continued catalog price erosion and the fact that there will be nothing to replace the top selling catalogs of this year.

One can ask whether a downward slide in new releases sales, is correlated to a (subjective) decline in the quality of movies made.

The best picture quality and cgi effects, isn't always going to compensate for a crappy story, crappy acting, etc ...

morriscroy
09-02-2012, 10:13 AM
I stopped for awhile, around 2000, when I jumped on Netflix and DVD, but they sucked me back in around 2006 when the new digital DLP projectors were hitting local theaters, great PQ and I only had a 42" at home :) using tv speakers.

I stopped going to the movie theater regularly, largely due to a lack of interest. Towards the end, many of the movies I thought weren't worth the ticket price anymore to see in the theater.

elwaylite
09-02-2012, 10:16 AM
Thats still the case LOL, which is why I hate paying $19.99 for a blu.

Theater pricing is pretty outrageous now.

morriscroy
09-02-2012, 10:18 AM
Theater pricing is pretty outrageous now.

I have no idea what ticket prices are these days.

The last time I went to a theater around a decade ago or so, it was already $10.

bruceames
09-02-2012, 10:30 AM
One can ask whether a downward slide in new releases sales, is correlated to a (subjective) decline in the quality of movies made.

The best picture quality and cgi effects, isn't always going to compensate for a crappy story, crappy acting, etc ...

Probably little if any correlation there. I don't think movies are getting worse but rather there is less star power than before. People like to see/buy movies because of certain actors and there's just no really big name star these days that will sell a movie just because he/she is in it.

morriscroy
09-02-2012, 10:39 AM
Probably little if any correlation there. I don't think movies are getting worse but rather there is less star power than before. People like to see/buy movies because of certain actors and there's just no really big name star these days that will sell a movie just because he/she is in it.

Wonder if this is a reason why so many movies these days are based on stuff like comic books, young adult book series, remakes/reboots, etc ...

If star power is largely ineffective at bringing in ticket sales, they can go the next level down to something that already has "brand name" recognition.

bruceames
09-02-2012, 10:42 AM
Wonder if this is a reason why so many movies these days are based on stuff like comic books, young adult book series, remakes/reboots, etc ...

If star power is largely ineffective at bringing in ticket sales, they can go the next level down to something that already has "brand name" recognition.

That's a good point. Could be also that they are playing it safe (in a declining market) because they know that "brand name" stuff sells better (on OD and in the theaters).

elwaylite
09-02-2012, 10:50 AM
Then there is remake-itis :)

morriscroy
09-02-2012, 11:02 AM
Wonder what they will do next when comic books, book series, remakes/reboots, etc ... are no longer effective anymore at bringing in revenue.

I can't think of anything obvious offhand.

At this point, something silly like incorporating hardcore porn, more extreme violence, death, etc ... into mainstream movies, probably won't do the trick either to juice up sales. :rolleyes:

morriscroy
09-02-2012, 11:24 AM
Thats still the case LOL, which is why I hate paying $19.99 for a blu.

Imho, most movies I've been watching aren't worth more than a $5 (or less) viewing at home. (Never mind going to the theater).

elwaylite
09-02-2012, 11:50 AM
I think what they have done is hurt their case with higher pricing.

My wife and I have been together since 1999, and we used to watch a TON of movies, I didnt care what it was, we either saw it at the theater or rented it, sometimes purchased. I make a lot more money now, but I find myself really nitpicking what I watch. I won't even rent or buy without a review from a few trusted sites first. Part of it is because i sure as hell don't want to spend the money buying a crap movie, especially at the theater, due to pricing. Currently, it costs us around $45 for two tix, two snacks and two drinks. This is the reason I see 2-3 movies a year, as opposed to 30-40, then throw in poor audio and rude people...

Now look at blu-ray, I used to rent a TON of DVD's, but now I have to be wary of the random act of not giving me a directors cut, or lossless audio. So you have already made me cut down my viewing due to cost at the theater, now I have to be cautious of not getting the full features on the movie I actually really want to see.

All of this, for someone who likes flicks and has even some money to spend, is a turn off. I can imagine why just about everyone I know is getting their DVD's from Redbox, or pulling up ATV/Vudu/Amazon Prime.

Here is a studio reality check, not ALL of your movies are worth buying. Do not penalize me because you produce junk. Whats happened, is I really only watch the movies that look good to me, movies that I would have given a chance before, i do not even watch now.

HD Goofnut
09-02-2012, 11:50 AM
No.

GizmoDVD
09-02-2012, 11:55 AM
No.

Fabulous response.

morriscroy
09-02-2012, 12:08 PM
This is the reason I see 2-3 movies a year, as opposed to 30-40, then throw in poor audio and rude people...

Rude people are tolerable. I'm largely numb to people chatting in the background, cell phones ringing, etc ...

What broke the camel's back for me, was the really stupid stuff people were doing like:

- somebody throwing popcorn around
- somebody throwing cups/bottles of soda across the room
- a person vomiting all over the place next to me
- people smoking marijuana next to me
- guys stomping on ketchup/mustard packets for a joke, and making a mess of the floor
- guys smashing beer/liquor bottles (they smuggled in), or throwing it around
- etc ... :banghead:

Lee Stewart
09-02-2012, 12:54 PM
Is 2012 the last 'big' year for Blu-ray before it's all downhill?

As far as catalog titles - yes. And that is definitely going to affect how well BD does in 2013 when it depends so much on definitely new release titles.

TowerGrove
09-02-2012, 03:29 PM
Strong selling catalogs (except a few by Disney) will be gone after this year. DVD was fortunate in that TV shows were able to fill the void when their catalog well started to go dry. But catalog TV on Blu-ray never got off the ground (and it won't because TV shows are too popular for streaming and because TV on DVD is so saturated). HBO won't even release the back seasons of The Sopranos (except season 1), so sales must really be bad.

Since Blu-ray is a new release format, growth next year will depend on how well next year's releases stack up against this year. But unless they sell more, then we'll probably see a decline because of continued catalog price erosion and the fact that there will be nothing to replace the top selling catalogs of this year.

Don't forget that many of us also purchase our TV shows in formats like ITunes downloads or now For example, with Big Bang Theory download stores like Ultraviolet.

morriscroy
09-02-2012, 04:23 PM
A recent article about how retired boomers have possibly been propping up the box office.

Don't know how much this translates into bluray/dvd sales.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/meryl-streep-arnold-schwarzenegger-sylvester-stallone-364548

After years of fawning over the fanboy, Hollywood is suddenly embracing the boomer, who is turning out to be the most avid moviegoer of all as teenagers and young adults disappear behind video game consoles, computers and iPhones. "It's the next frontier. Younger people have pretty much been milked," says Bill Newcott, entertainment editor at AARP's The Magazine.

Paramount vice chairman Rob Moore says boomers are one of Hollywood's rare demographic constants -- they always turn out. "This is a group that grew up going to the movies. It was before cable TV, before the VCR," he says. "At times, Hollywood forgets them but invariably comes back and realizes how steady and dependable they are."

HD Goofnut
09-02-2012, 05:34 PM
Fabulous response.

I wanted to be sure to stay on par with your intellect.;)

bruceames
09-02-2012, 05:51 PM
Don't forget that many of us also purchase our TV shows in formats like ITunes downloads or now For example, with Big Bang Theory download stores like Ultraviolet.

That's true, Tower. TV shows are ideal for digital sell through.

morriscroy
09-03-2012, 12:40 PM
The "half-time intermission" of the bluray market, could be when the bottom feeders and other lower tier companies exit the market. (ie. Companies like Mill Creek, Echo Bridge, Anchor Bay, etc ... exiting the bluray market).

Echo13
09-03-2012, 04:32 PM
I feel like Ive heard this before..

Lee Stewart
09-03-2012, 04:53 PM
I feel like Ive heard this before..

Must have been at the end of last year when BD's growth fell from 68% to 20% huh?

morriscroy
09-04-2012, 05:54 AM
My wife and I have been together since 1999, and we used to watch a TON of movies, I didnt care what it was, we either saw it at the theater or rented it, sometimes purchased. I make a lot more money now, but I find myself really nitpicking what I watch. I won't even rent or buy without a review from a few trusted sites first. Part of it is because i sure as hell don't want to spend the money buying a crap movie, especially at the theater, due to pricing.

...

Here is a studio reality check, not ALL of your movies are worth buying. Do not penalize me because you produce junk. Whats happened, is I really only watch the movies that look good to me, movies that I would have given a chance before, i do not even watch now.

Another big factor for me, is how easily guessable so many tv episodes and movies are in their storylines. As I got older, I noticed the same patterns showing up over and over again in just about every tv show and movie I've seen. (Similar thing if one reads web sites like tvtropes.org). Typical storyline is:

0 - Introduce the characters.
1 - There's a disturbance in the force (or status quo).
2 - The good guys find and beat up the bad guys (whether figuratively or literally).
3 - Everything goes back to the status-quo, or a new quasi status-quo.

(Step 0 may be omitted in a tv show, after the first episodes).

Not exactly exciting anymore when so many storylines are similar to one another, and easily guessable. For that matter, many fiction books also follow a similar storyline, which can also be easily guessable if one is familiar with the tropes of a particular genre.

morriscroy
09-04-2012, 07:13 AM
Whats happened, is I really only watch the movies that look good to me,

Being fascinated by picture quality, only last about a week or so for me, after I first picked up a bluray player back in December last year.

When I first picked up a bluray player, Avatar was the only bluray which really "wowed" me in regard to picture quality. (A distant second was the Star Wars saga on bluray, and maybe Blade Runner).

Subsequently as I watched older catalog bluray titles like First Blood 1, Terminator 1, Fifth Element, the original Total Recall, etc ..., I came to the sudden realization that not all blurays will have "Avatar quality". As I picked up more bluray titles, I came to the further realization that Avatar was largely the exception and is in a class of its own. (ie. Very few titles will live up to Avatar quality).

Fast forward to the present, my eyes have more or less adjusted to bluray 1080p resolution. It's not so exciting anymore.

These days, my main motivation for buying blurays is largely due to price, especially with so many titles which are approximately the same price as the dvd version (ie. the $5 bargain bins, etc ...). Picture quality isn't the main motivation for me anymore.

movies that I would have given a chance before, i do not even watch now.

I only went down to lesser known movies, when I have already watched and exhausted the "first tier" movies I had wanted to watch.

Lately I've been watching lesser known action movies, many of which have never been released on bluray and/or were released by "bottom feeder' companies. (Mostly dvd bargain bin stuff at $2 a pop). If I ever double-dip on such lower-tier titles, it will be if I'm really really bored out of the my skull and want to watch the bluray version.

elwaylite
09-04-2012, 07:25 AM
Lol, I meant "good" in quality, not PQ ;)

morriscroy
09-04-2012, 07:27 AM
Lol, I meant "good" in quality, not PQ ;)

How exactly are you defining "good" quality?

elwaylite
09-04-2012, 07:48 AM
Interested would be a better word. I look at a movie subject, and decide if it even interests me, then I wait for reviews from places like AVS and HDD. After that I determine if I want to even waste my time.

I used to not be so picky.

morriscroy
09-04-2012, 08:02 AM
Interested would be a better word. I look at a movie subject, and decide if it even interests me, then I wait for reviews from places like AVS and HDD. After that I determine if I want to even waste my time.

I used to not be so picky.

For me, it varies from genre to genre.

For example, I'm somewhat less picky when it comes to sci-fi and action titles. I've watched so much sci-fi and action over the years, that I can tell most of the time whether something is worth my time (and money) as an impulse blind buy.

For other genres which are not action nor sci-fi, I usually ask friends what they think of particular movies. (For a tv show, I'll watch a few episodes). I don't really use online reviews.

Lee Stewart
09-04-2012, 08:50 PM
From The Digital Bits:

Also today, we've learned from industry sources that 20th Century Fox (and MGM) is getting ready to release Cleopatra (in the U.S. - it's already available internationally), The Great Escape, How Green Was My Valley, Laura, Fantastic Voyage, Von Ryan's Express and Hello Dolly on Blu-ray in 2013.

TowerGrove
09-05-2012, 05:05 AM
From The Digital Bits:


Looking forward to seeing these classics finally!

Malanthius
09-05-2012, 11:33 AM
Looking forward to seeing these classics finally!

I'd like to see a couple of those too. But keep in mind how the LOA release was hyped for so long. Ill believe it when I see it. Until then it's just hype for now.

Echo13
09-05-2012, 07:16 PM
Must have been at the end of last year when BD's growth fell from 68% to 20% huh?So Im not going crazy. I have heard it before.

GizmoDVD
09-05-2012, 08:08 PM
So Im not going crazy. I have heard it before.

Yeah, Blu-ray is failing. Nothing new.

HD Goofnut
09-06-2012, 07:13 AM
Yeah, Blu-ray is failing. Nothing new.

Just like your posts.