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AppleTV (1080p) Review: Can you Hear Blu-ray's Death Rattle?

GizmoDVD
03-21-2012, 09:28 PM
Pretty interesting review comparing the 1080p AppleTV content to Blu-ray (which is not the first review to do so either).

http://gizmodo.com/5894882/apple-tv-2012-review-can-you-hear-blu+rays-death-rattle

You can now buy a $100 box that streams a large catalog of available-to-anyone video that's nearly as high-fidelity as Blu-ray. The Apple TV is not the first blow to video on discs, but it definitely hit a vein.

Why It Matters
In terms of an overall, pants-on-couch experience, the Apple TV is still the best streaming box you can plug into your tube—followed by a Roku. The status quo remains. But Apple, long overdue, is now beaming movies at the highest possible HD quality: 1080p. For the first time, this means the Apple TV isn't just the gold standard of streaming movies, but a contender against the King of All Physical Media, the Blu-ray. The disc has been doomed to obsolescence since its audio forbears gave up the ghost, but this newest iteration from Apple could mean a hurried jog to the graveyard.

Like
The Apple TV is still the exact same minimalist masterwork—deserving of a spot at the MoMA someday. It's unchanged from its prior form, and just as easy to set up: plug in the juice, hook up the HDMI, and you're in business. The equally minimalist remote, a clarion amid A/V control congestion, is back too. Good.

Facile form means it's easy to hop right into the meat and gristle here: The new 1080p video resolution, possible thanks to an upgraded processor and crafty compression from Apple, is fabulous.

Full size
The difference will vary from show to show and film to film, but there's an undeniably sharp uptick in fidelity. Facial hair, creases, and pores pop out of faces; fine lines and texture appear on surfaces, and text in every world is much sharper. More pixels means more detail. In terms of clarity this is most of the way to a Blu-ray disc, approaching the best possible picture anywhere at all, without having to actually touch one of those clunky archaic plastic circle things—everything you ever buy from iTunes will be dangling from the cloud, forever.

No Like
Most of the way ain't all of the way. Streaming a file the size of a full Blu-ray movie just isn't feasible with today's internet speeds, unless you're using the WiFi at Los Alamos or sleeping with the cable guy or something. Apple has to cut corners using software tricks in order to deliver flicks: Blu-ray flicks are tens and tens of gigabytes in size. iTunes 1080p streams are only a few gigs. 1080p is like kosher—the certified hot dogs are better, but some brands are tastier than others.

While watching iTunes' version of Drive—a movie with brilliant brights, color, and deep, speeding night scenes—those cut corners were evident. Compression. Like a bad JPEG, the streaming version of the film exhibited some visual smearing and distortion, particularly during fast motion and darkness. Drive is full of both. So while the iTunes copy faithfully rendered Gosling's iron jaw and all its stubbly ornament, unpleasant color banding persisted across the LA skyline, through dust clouds, and around street lights. Even in well lit scenes, details like patterned walls and forest blurred, a smear of colors.

The only haze in the Blu-ray version (viewed on a PS3) was the city's actual smog—virtually no visible artifacts or compression jumble. It's not constant, and it's most noticeable when you're looking for it, but it's there.

Full size
Oh, and the new menus. They're not exclusive to the new model (you can download a software update for your old Apple TV), but boy are they dumb. Apple, clearly mimicking your iPhone's home screen, has replaced its elegant text-heavy UI with gaudy chiclet icons. They look tacky, but more unfortunately, they're hard to navigate—and some can't even be removed. I don't want to have to slide over a bunch of options I don't give a damn about just to get to Netflix—particularly not with the we-couldn't-possibly-remove-any-more-buttons-from-this remote. Apple clearly did this to make room for Roku-style channels, but in the meantime, it's a minor aesthetic and functional shin-kick.

Should I Buy This
Despite its ugly new interface, the Apple TV is still the best of its breed. But thanks to its newfound stellar video quality, it now straddles two categories—sure, it's the best streaming box, but it might actually give you a reason to avoid (or ditch) a Blu-ray player. The video quality is that fantastic, and the ease of selecting from a catalog (thin as it might be) from your couch, letting it quickly buffer, and then playing it in splendidly clear fashion is just terrific.

If you care more about living the future, live it here—at this point, discs are just for purists. If the notion of literally the best possible quality resonates, this isn't for you—Blu-ray is on top, but you might want to ask yourself how much you care. Are you still listening to CDs, or were you happy to sacrifice some fidelity for the convenience of MP3? The new Apple TV represents a similar decision point.

bruceames
03-21-2012, 10:43 PM
Looks good. So, will they have the content to match?

GizmoDVD
03-21-2012, 10:47 PM
Looks good. So, will they have the content to match?

They have plenty right now. Like the older version, I doubt most consumers can even tell the difference.

Atleast there is no 28-45 day delay on releases :cool:

Kosty
03-21-2012, 11:11 PM
It would be a nice Netflix streaming box as well.

Looks better than the Roku boxes I've seen

bombsnizzle
03-22-2012, 06:48 AM
Vudu has been doing 1080p for years, has better quality and is available on more devices via the PS3 and Xbox, bluray players and TVs. If people want the best digital movie experience they will use Vudu. If any digital service will "rattle" bluray from a quality perspective it will be Vudu - not Apple.

Funny how late to the game Apple is regarding 1080p content. Yet they release a table with greater than 1080p resolution. Doesn't make much sense to me. And yet still bluray is the king of quality. Digital still hasn't caught up.

If 20M iPads contribute nothing to digital movie sales this new AppleTV is essentially non-existent. A mere spec upgrade, to make the Apple sheep feel compelled to do their yearly Apple hardware upgrade because their 1 year old Apple TV is now "obsolete".

TowerGrove
03-22-2012, 06:58 AM
The new apple tv is nice but I have mentioned this before, can I watch my I purchases on my other non Apple devices. Until the answer to that is yes, mine will continue to be no. The garden is too walled.

bombsnizzle
03-22-2012, 07:01 AM
The new apple tv is nice but I have mentioned this before, can I watch my I purchases on my other non Apple devices. Until the answer to that is yes, mine will continue to be no. The garden is too walled.

If people actually used AppleTVs to buy/rent movies it would show up in the digital sales numbers. We know digital sales numbers showed no significant boost, despite all of the Apple TVs sold.

I guess people are just using AppleTV for Netflix.:what:

GizmoDVD
03-22-2012, 08:23 AM
The new apple tv is nice but I have mentioned this before, can I watch my I purchases on my other non Apple devices. Until the answer to that is yes, mine will continue to be no. The garden is too walled.

You can't watch Blu-rays in a DVD player either. Or VHS player. Or on an iPhone.

I fail to see the difference here. You've walled yourself in by getting Blu-ray which is the least supported OD format around.

sbuberl
03-22-2012, 08:41 AM
You can't watch Blu-rays in a DVD player either. Or VHS player. Or on an iPhone.

I fail to see the difference here. You've walled yourself in by getting Blu-ray which is the least supported OD format around.

The difference is Blu-Ray is a standard that can played on all Blu-Ray players. So if you don't like your player, you can get a different model or different hardware from another manufacturer and still play your BR just fine. But with Apple's walled garden, if you want to switch to non-Apple device or use a media player that's not iTunes, tough luck.

GizmoDVD
03-22-2012, 08:44 AM
The difference is Blu-Ray is a standard that can played on all Blu-Ray players. So if you don't like your player, you can get a different model or different hardware from another manufacturer and still play your BR just fine. But with Apple's walled garden, if you want to switch to non-Apple device or use a media player that's not iTunes, tough luck.

But if you want to watch blu-ray titles you have to...have a Blu-ray player. If you want to watch Apple content, you have to ....have a Apple something. Just because you can buy a LG or Samsung BD player makes no difference. Since Apple is pushing digital RENTALS more so then PURCHASES, I don't see the problem here. Unless you plan on renting a movie through AppleTV and suddenly wanting a Roku 12 hours later.

I don't see the difference here. Both are walled in gardens. Blu-ray even has the fabulous BD+ that makes CEs update firmware often (if they even do) just to play newer titles.

HD Goofnut
03-22-2012, 09:17 AM
The new apple tv is nice but I have mentioned this before, can I watch my I purchases on my other non Apple devices. Until the answer to that is yes, mine will continue to be no. The garden is too walled.

+1. This is why I never bought a Mac.

bombsnizzle
03-22-2012, 09:21 AM
But if you want to watch blu-ray titles you have to...have a Blu-ray player. If you want to watch Apple content, you have to ....have a Apple something. Just because you can buy a LG or Samsung BD player makes no difference. Since Apple is pushing digital RENTALS more so then PURCHASES, I don't see the problem here. Unless you plan on renting a movie through AppleTV and suddenly wanting a Roku 12 hours later.

I don't see the difference here. Both are walled in gardens. Blu-ray even has the fabulous BD+ that makes CEs update firmware often (if they even do) just to play newer titles.

You don't see the difference because you don't want to.

You love Apple, so you can't say anything bad about them.

You hate bluray, so you can't say anything good about it.

You full well know the closed ecosystem Apple has created. There is no debate. If you build a collection of media via iTunes it is only useful via Apple.

DVD and bluray are open, industry approved formats. They work on every player from everyone in the industry.

The fact that you can't even admit to such a simple difference shows your extreme bias.

bruceames
03-22-2012, 09:25 AM
+1. This is why I never bought a Mac.

Same here. I'll never buy anything Apple because of the "walls". I mean, come on, even the Berlin wall got torn down. :lol: I'm not going to get married to a company.

HD Goofnut
03-22-2012, 09:34 AM
Same here. I'll never buy anything Apple because of the "walls". I mean, come on, even the Berlin wall got torn down. :lol: I'm not going to get married to a company.

Exactly and everything Apple costs much more than its PC counterpart.

bombsnizzle
03-22-2012, 09:47 AM
Same here. I'll never buy anything Apple because of the "walls". I mean, come on, even the Berlin wall got torn down. :lol: I'm not going to get married to a company.

But but GizmoDVD said they are both walled in.

I don't see the difference here. Both are walled in gardens.

There is no difference between DVD and iTunes. Absolutely none. One is just as open as the other.

Does anyone here besides GizmoDVD actually believe that???

GLOW
03-22-2012, 10:37 AM
With Blu-ray, I don't need to worry about bandwith caps, my ISP throttling me (degraded PQ), or my internet going down.

With AppleTV, Roku, etc... I have to worry about all of the above.

So, no, I can't hear this death rattle you speak of.

TowerGrove
03-22-2012, 11:26 AM
If people actually used AppleTVs to buy/rent movies it would show up in the digital sales numbers. We know digital sales numbers showed no significant boost, despite all of the Apple TVs sold.

I guess people are just using AppleTV for Netflix.:what:

Even Netflix and rental are not making up the loses for the studios. Factor in box office bombs like the recent Disney Sci Fi and the studios dig themselves into an even deeper hole.

TowerGrove
03-22-2012, 11:30 AM
With Blu-ray, I don't need to worry about bandwith caps, my ISP throttling me (degraded PQ), or my internet going down.

With AppleTV, Roku, etc... I have to worry about all of the above.

So, no, I can't hear this death rattle you speak of.

When adding it all together and while the number is lower than in previous years, I would hardly call a $10 billion dollar a year sell thru market a death rattle. A business savy friend of mine mentioned this to me a few days ago that a $10 billion dollar business or market segment is huge and that most industries would kill for a number like that.

TowerGrove
03-22-2012, 11:34 AM
You can't watch Blu-rays in a DVD player either. Or VHS player. Or on an iPhone.

I fail to see the difference here. You've walled yourself in by getting Blu-ray which is the least supported OD format around.

Blu rays can be played in a variety of consumer electronic brands. Samsung, Panasonic, Sony etc. many different branded players. BDR on a PC etc. That's the point I'm trying to make. You can only play apple iTunes video files on apple product or software. They will not play in devices by (for example) brands like I mention above.

TowerGrove
03-22-2012, 11:48 AM
But if you want to watch blu-ray titles you have to...have a Blu-ray player. If you want to watch Apple content, you have to ....have a Apple something. Just because you can buy a LG or Samsung BD player makes no difference. Since Apple is pushing digital RENTALS more so then PURCHASES, I don't see the problem here. Unless you plan on renting a movie through AppleTV and suddenly wanting a Roku 12 hours later.

I don't see the difference here. Both are walled in gardens. Blu-ray even has the fabulous BD+ that makes CEs update firmware often (if they even do) just to play newer titles.

This statement is incorrect... Apple would rather have you purchase content and that's the whole premise for their iCloud content push. Sell you content, store it in their cloud (with the option to download if you so choose). Customers also prefer to purchase according to the "mother ship":
iTunes customers have shown they overwhelmingly prefer buying TV shows, Apple spokesman Tom Neumayr said. iTunes in the Cloud lets customers download and watch their past TV purchases from their iOS devices, Apple TV, Mac or PC allowing them to enjoy their programming whenever and however they choose.

http://9to5mac.com/2011/08/26/apple-stops-offering-tv-show-rentals-through-itunes-sees-itunes-in-the-cloud-as-replacement/

Again, show me where I can legally purchase and use my iTunes videos on non branded apple product or software? I can't find a way to do this. There are many people who want to have nothing to do with an apple product because of their walled garden.

HD Goofnut
03-22-2012, 12:02 PM
With Blu-ray, I don't need to worry about bandwith caps, my ISP throttling me (degraded PQ), or my internet going down.

With AppleTV, Roku, etc... I have to worry about all of the above.

So, no, I can't hear this death rattle you speak of.

:yippee::thumbsup:

Kosty
03-22-2012, 12:43 PM
:yippee::thumbsup:

CNET Gizmodo and other tech sites have been hearing the death rattle of packaged media since before 2006 and when Blu-ray and HD DVD were first launched. They consistently stated that there was no need for a high definition next generation DVD format way back in 2005. That Blu-ray and HD DVD would both fail. Blu-ray is still alive.

DVD and Blu-ray are still here and doing orders of magnitude greater sales that digital EST.

Blu-ray OD ain't dead yet despite any imaginary "death rattles" writers at tech sites might hear in their heads.

Kinda hard to say something like Blu-ray is dying when its still growing at over 20% a year in this economy and is part of a industry that did around $9 billion in high margin sell through and even more in rental income last year. Let alone if the growth rate this year is better than last year.

OD is huge even in decline and through 10 weeks of this year its actually hardly declining at all.

bombsnizzle
03-22-2012, 12:47 PM
CNET Gizmodo and other tech sites have been hearing the death rattle of packaged media since before 2006 and when Blu-ray and HD DVD were first launched. They consistently stated that there was no need for a high definition next generation DVD format.

DVD and Blu-ray are still here and doing orders of magnitude greater sales that digital EST.

OD ain't dead yet despite any imaginary "death rattles" writers at tech sites might hear in their heads.

With the new 1080p Apple TV and the new iPad (>1080p) display I expect the sales and rentals of HD content from iTunes to skyrocket (iTunes being the biggest name in digital content).

Anything else would be an abject failure.

mikemorel
03-22-2012, 01:26 PM
DVD and Blu-ray are still here and doing orders of magnitude greater sales that digital EST.Do you understand what "orders of magnitude" means?

GizmoDVD
03-22-2012, 01:29 PM
Blu-ray discs can only be used in Blu-ray players.

Apple purchases (Apps, Movies etc) can only be used on Apple devices.

If you don't like the way Apple is doing things...don't buy Apple. It's pretty simple. Most consumers don't care about owning movies digitally. I certainly don't.

HD Goofnut
03-22-2012, 01:33 PM
If you don't like the way Apple is doing things...don't buy Apple. It's pretty simple.

Been doing this for a long time and will keep up the practice.

bombsnizzle
03-22-2012, 01:38 PM
Blu-ray discs can only be used in Blu-ray players.

Apple purchases (Apps, Movies etc) can only be used on Apple devices.


Lots of companies make bluray players. You are locked into the media, not the company.

ONE company makes Apple products. You are locked into the media AND the company.

BIG DIFFERENCE.

Just admit your comparison is off-base and stop trying to defend such a faulty position.

GizmoDVD
03-22-2012, 01:42 PM
Sorry, dont see an issue.

Don't buy movies digitally if you don't want to be locked in. Pretty simple.

bombsnizzle
03-22-2012, 02:05 PM
Sorry, dont see an issue.

Don't buy movies digitally if you don't want to be locked in. Pretty simple. Then you are blind.

Your Apple vs DVD/bluray comparison was a failure and now you are trying to sweep it under the rug.

ack_bak
03-22-2012, 02:38 PM
You guys (and girls) do realize that any Windows PC can play movies and music from iTunes, and can access content in the Cloud:

http://www.apple.com/icloud/setup/pc.html

You don't have to have just a Mac. It has been this way since 2003...

As for the article, it is just sensational writing. I do think Apple supporting 1080p is nothing but a good thing, but this is not going to spell the death of anything. Apple has been selling iTunes capable devices for years and they are barely putting a dent on EST. Blu-Ray is growing faster than digital sales last time I checked....

ack_bak
03-22-2012, 02:42 PM
Looks like this app will also let you stream content to Android devices from your iTunes/AppleTV using airsync via something like this:
http://www.doubletwist.com/airsync/

And vice versa. Content from your Android device or Windows device to your AppleTV.

HD Goofnut
03-22-2012, 03:10 PM
You guys (and girls) do realize that any Windows PC can play movies and music from iTunes, and can access content in the Cloud:

http://www.apple.com/icloud/setup/pc.html

You don't have to have just a Mac. It has been this way since 2003...

As for the article, it is just sensational writing. I do think Apple supporting 1080p is nothing but a good thing, but this is not going to spell the death of anything. Apple has been selling iTunes capable devices for years and they are barely putting a dent on EST. Blu-Ray is growing faster than digital sales last time I checked....

Yep, and it still is.

sbuberl
03-22-2012, 03:18 PM
Looks like this app will also let you stream content to Android devices from your iTunes/AppleTV using airsync via something like this:
http://www.doubletwist.com/airsync/

And vice versa. Content from your Android device or Windows device to your AppleTV.

It can only sync iTunes music and non-DRMed video to the Android device: http://doubletwist.com/help/question/can-i-sync-itunes-movies-tv-shows-with-doubletwist/

ack_bak
03-22-2012, 03:36 PM
It can only sync iTunes music and non-DRMed video to the Android device: http://doubletwist.com/help/question/can-i-sync-itunes-movies-tv-shows-with-doubletwist/

Well that sucks....

But hey, UV will fix it! Apple will be joining anyday now......

mikemorel
03-22-2012, 05:17 PM
CNET Gizmodo and other tech sites have been hearing the death rattle of packaged media since before 2006 and when Blu-ray and HD DVD were first launched.

Kinda hard to say something like Blu-ray is dying when its still growing at over 20% a year in this economy and is part of a industry that did around $9 billion in high margin sell through and even more in rental income last year. Let alone if the growth rate this year is better than last year.Bloomberg, Screen Digest today:

Online Film Viewing in U.S. to Top Discs in 2012, IHS Says (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-22/online-movie-viewing-in-u-s-to-top-discs-in-2012-ihs-says.html)

“We are looking at the beginning of the end of the age of movies on physical media like DVD and Blu-ray,” Dan Cryan, IHS senior principal analyst, said in the statement.

TowerGrove
03-22-2012, 07:21 PM
You guys (and girls) do realize that any Windows PC can play movies and music from iTunes, and can access content in the Cloud:

http://www.apple.com/icloud/setup/pc.html

You don't have to have just a Mac. It has been this way since 2003...

As for the article, it is just sensational writing. I do think Apple supporting 1080p is nothing but a good thing, but this is not going to spell the death of anything. Apple has been selling iTunes capable devices for years and they are barely putting a dent on EST. Blu-Ray is growing faster than digital sales last time I checked....

Ack please reread my posts Like post #19 for example. I said:

That's the point I'm trying to make. You can only play apple iTunes video files on apple product or software.

You can only play itunes videos (legally without breaking copy protection) on Apple products or SOFTWARE (itunes). Yes it is true you can play your itune purchased video on a PC as long as your running Apple software. Good reason for a HTPC I guess!

TowerGrove
03-22-2012, 07:25 PM
Looks like this app will also let you stream content to Android devices from your iTunes/AppleTV using airsync via something like this:
http://www.doubletwist.com/airsync/

And vice versa. Content from your Android device or Windows device to your AppleTV.

You still need to have Apples Itunes installed on one of your devices for this to work. A PC for example.

TowerGrove
03-22-2012, 07:28 PM
It can only sync iTunes music and non-DRMed video to the Android device: http://doubletwist.com/help/question/can-i-sync-itunes-movies-tv-shows-with-doubletwist/

And still requires you to use Apple itunes on one of the devices. Again you have to rely on the walled garden.

I do thing that with the new icloud digital copies are becoming more popular. I know many people after the icloud video announcement who are hunting through old DVDs and BD to find those digital download apple store codes.

TowerGrove
03-22-2012, 07:29 PM
Well that sucks....

But hey, UV will fix it! Apple will be joining anyday now......

Holding my breath....holding it....Que: (pass out from waiting) :D

HD Goofnut
03-22-2012, 07:57 PM
Bloomberg, Screen Digest today:

Online Film Viewing in U.S. to Top Discs in 2012, IHS Says (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-22/online-movie-viewing-in-u-s-to-top-discs-in-2012-ihs-says.html)

Just stop mike. They all said the same thing about DVDs from 2003-2005 then they ate their words, are still eating them for both DVD and BD, and will keep eating them. Physical media is not going anywhere anytime soon.

bombsnizzle
03-22-2012, 08:13 PM
Bloomberg, Screen Digest today:

Online Film Viewing in U.S. to Top Discs in 2012, IHS Says (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-22/online-movie-viewing-in-u-s-to-top-discs-in-2012-ihs-says.html)

Perhaps more concerning is the following:

Legal online viewings of films will more than double to 3.4 billion this year from 1.4 billion in 2011, IHS said today in a statement. Physical viewings of DVDs and Blu-ray discs will shrink to 2.4 billion from 2.6 billion, according to the forecast.
...Consumers paid an average of 51 cents for every movie consumed online, compared with $4.72 for physically purchased videos, IHS found.

Wow!! 3.4 BILLION digital views. That makes 2.4 billion physical views look so tiny.

But wait...that 3.4B only brings in $.51/movie.

3.4B*.51 = $1.734B. Ouch. Not much $$.

What about discs you ask? Oh, they bring in $4.72/movie.

2.4B*$4.72 = $11.328B

Hmmm...$11.328B versus $1.734B. Quite the difference. Digital: a billion more views yet almost $10 BILLION less. Double Ouch. Not much money to be made digitally.

Why is digital so low you ask?

Unlimited-streaming subscription plans, including those offered by Netflix Inc. (NFLX) and online retailer Amazon.com (AMZN)’s Prime service, accounted for 94 percent of all paid online movie consumption in the U.S. last year, Englewood, Colorado-based IHS said. Streamed movies have been replacing video discs, much as streamed music is overtaking compact audio discs.

This sounds great and all...but the movie industry simply can't survive on a "format" that brings in a whopping 51 cents per view for a measly $1.734B dollars.

$7.99/month unlimited plans simply cannot sustain Hollywood. In fact one could argue they are helping to kill it by devaluing the price of movie consumption. Home video has declined as Netflix has increased. Coincidence?

h0mi
03-22-2012, 10:42 PM
These are projections. We're 3 months into the year and they're projecting what views will be for the full year. It's dependent upon Netflix' subscriber growth, as well as Amazon's since they constitute 94% of the content being measured.

Does anyone seriously believe Netflix will have enough subscriber growth, and given the amount of content lost from last year to this year that we can reasonably expect growth to more than double from last year? What about Amazon's service... will it show similar growth?

“But the transition is likely to take time: almost nine years after the launch of the iTunes Store, CDs are still a vital part of the music business.”

There's always this.

Five major studios announced on March 13 an exclusive agreement with Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) that may re-ignite home- video purchases by giving consumers the option to store digital copies in the cloud. The program, called disc-to-digital, lets consumers pay a fee to convert physical libraries to digital, and could become a new source of revenue.

Sounds like that Walmart disc to video thing is expected to boost downloads. We'll see.

Kosty
03-22-2012, 10:54 PM
that may re-ignite home- video purchases by giving consumers the option to store digital copies in the cloud Its also meant to boost all sell through including physical media that after purchased can be uploaded into disc to video or future DVD and Blu-ray purchases that already have Vudu or UltraViolet digital copies included. That and encouraging the use of pure digital Vudu and UltraViolet copies as well.

GizmoDVD
03-23-2012, 08:17 AM
Well that sucks....

But hey, UV will fix it! Apple will be joining anyday now......

But it was cool when Universal was HD DVD exclusive and Paramount/Warner preferred to release certain titles on HD DVD. No problem for Blu-ray, it didn't need those pesky studios!

But now, UV is a failure without Disney or Apple. :lol:

ack_bak
03-23-2012, 08:25 AM
But it was cool when Universal was HD DVD exclusive and Paramount/Warner preferred to release certain titles on HD DVD. No problem for Blu-ray, it didn't need those pesky studios!

But now, UV is a failure without Disney or Apple. :lol:

No it was not cool. It forced many of us who were early adopters into buying a failed format because we did not know what was going to happen.

Face it. Without Apple, UV is not going to go very far. iTunes makes up the bulk of movies being bought online and the iCloud is pretty slick. Hundreds of millions of people have iTunes accounts and are familiar with the interface and buy Apple products like they are going out of style.

UV needs Apple if they want to become the next mainstream media format. They need Disney too, but without Apple, they are not going very far IMHO.

ack_bak
03-23-2012, 08:29 AM
These are projections. We're 3 months into the year and they're projecting what views will be for the full year. It's dependent upon Netflix' subscriber growth, as well as Amazon's since they constitute 94% of the content being measured.

Does anyone seriously believe Netflix will have enough subscriber growth, and given the amount of content lost from last year to this year that we can reasonably expect growth to more than double from last year? What about Amazon's service... will it show similar growth?



There's always this.



Sounds like that Walmart disc to video thing is expected to boost downloads. We'll see.

I don't know why anyone takes Mike seriously. The article is sensationalist journalism at it's best.

We all know that physical media is on the decline, but as you mentioned, it is going to be a very long time before physical media goes away, and it may never go away. So yeah. We have been hearing for years from people like Mike that "time is slipping away" yet year after year physical media dominates the number that matters the most to studios. Revenue.

Would not surprise me if I could walk into a physical store and buy physical media 10 years from now.

GizmoDVD
03-23-2012, 08:31 AM
I don't know why anyone takes Mike seriously. The article is sensationalist journalism at it's best.



But it's cool when your other favorite poster posts numerous "sensationalist journalism" articles in Blu-ray's favor?

ack_bak
03-23-2012, 08:39 AM
And still requires you to use Apple itunes on one of the devices. Again you have to rely on the walled garden.

I do thing that with the new icloud digital copies are becoming more popular. I know many people after the icloud video announcement who are hunting through old DVDs and BD to find those digital download apple store codes.

So if Apple can get iTunes out there for Android, we would be pretty much covered, correct? ios, Android, and Windows devices make up the bulk of what people are buying and using.

And I agree, the iCloud makes things much more useful. For music, I have been really enjoying the service. I have not done much for video, but am really toying with the idea of buying a couple of Apple TV's. But I just don't know. I think this year into next year will be telling for UV and what will happen with the format. If it does not catch on, I will just start doing more with Apple since we have iPhones, iPads, and Macs in our house anyway.

I just want something that works and does not make me jump through hoops and has good quality. I would prefer high bitrate 1080p with lossless audio, but I honestly don't think digital will equal (let alone best) Blu-Ray for PQ/AQ for many years to come.

This article really highlighted that for me. But it is a step in the right direction for Apple at least.

Kosty
03-23-2012, 10:06 AM
But it's cool when your other favorite poster posts numerous "sensationalist journalism" articles in Blu-ray's favor?

Hey, I personally actually liked the article and its bias was clear and open.

It was a worthy thing to discuss and I appreciate mikemorel or anybody else bring in articles like that to for us all to ponder and discuss.

If you disagree with an article or writer or poster feel free to honestly express your opinion in a respectful manner and its all good.

1stSilverado
03-23-2012, 08:12 PM
I don't know why anyone takes Mike seriously. The article is sensationalist journalism at it's best.

We all know that physical media is on the decline, but as you mentioned, it is going to be a very long time before physical media goes away, and it may never go away. So yeah. We have been hearing for years from people like Mike that "time is slipping away" yet year after year physical media dominates the number that matters the most to studios. Revenue.

Would not surprise me if I could walk into a physical store and buy physical media 10 years from now.

To be honest, 10 years from now I would be surprised if they did sell physical media. VHS disappeared very quickly when DVD became popular, and SD televisions fell off the earth when HD televisions were sold.
I expect that when the studios find a successful replacement for physical media, we might find excess stock sales for a little while, but that will disappear fast.

TowerGrove
03-23-2012, 09:26 PM
So if Apple can get iTunes out there for Android, we would be pretty much covered, correct? ios, Android, and Windows devices make up the bulk of what people are buying and using.

And I agree, the iCloud makes things much more useful. For music, I have been really enjoying the service. I have not done much for video, but am really toying with the idea of buying a couple of Apple TV's. But I just don't know. I think this year into next year will be telling for UV and what will happen with the format. If it does not catch on, I will just start doing more with Apple since we have iPhones, iPads, and Macs in our house anyway.

I just want something that works and does not make me jump through hoops and has good quality. I would prefer high bitrate 1080p with lossless audio, but I honestly don't think digital will equal (let alone best) Blu-Ray for PQ/AQ for many years to come.

This article really highlighted that for me. But it is a step in the right direction for Apple at least.

I'm in the same boat for sure. I just want something that works and works for me long term.

chipvideo
03-23-2012, 10:45 PM
No it was not cool. It forced many of us who were early adopters into buying a failed format because we did not know what was going to happen.

Face it. Without Apple, UV is not going to go very far. iTunes makes up the bulk of movies being bought online and the iCloud is pretty slick. Hundreds of millions of people have iTunes accounts and are familiar with the interface and buy Apple products like they are going out of style.

UV needs Apple if they want to become the next mainstream media format. They need Disney too, but without Apple, they are not going very far IMHO.

The same can be said about blu-ray and it isn't going far so its true.

GizmoDVD
03-24-2012, 07:02 AM
The same can be said about blu-ray and it isn't going far so its true.

Exactly. Apple doesn't support Blu-ray yet I don't see Ack up in arms about that. It's just the threat that UV imposes on precious Blu-ray is what gets people so crazy.

bruceames
03-24-2012, 07:12 AM
Exactly. Apple doesn't support Blu-ray yet I don't see Ack up in arms about that. It's just the threat that UV imposes on precious Blu-ray is what gets people so crazy.

I don't see any threat. As long as UV is an almost free pack-in with Blu-ray then it's actually supporting it, just like DVD is supporting Blu-ray by being included as a pack-in.

Just don't see any scenario where UV codes will be selling like hotcakes for $15-20 each. Not after consumers are so used to getting them included in nearly every major OD release. Seems the purpose is more to extend the life of OD, rather than become the "next gen" format.

So now we have 2 formats that Blu-ray is using as a crutch: UV and DVD.

GizmoDVD
03-24-2012, 07:16 AM
I don't see any threat. As long as UV is an almost free pack-in with Blu-ray then it's actually supporting it, just like DVD is supporting Blu-ray by being included as a pack-in.

Just don't see any scenario where UV codes will be selling like hotcakes for $15-20 each. Not after consumers are so used to getting them included in nearly every major OD release. Seems the purpose is more to extend the life of OD, rather than become the "next gen" format.

So now we have 2 formats that Blu-ray is using as a crutch: UV and DVD.

I don't see UV as a threat either. Just like I didn't for Digital Copy.

But some of the things people are saying to try and discount UV applies directly to Blu-ray which they had no issues with.

UV does not have support from Disney = OMG! FAILURE!
Blu-ray did not have support from Universal and some titles from Warner and Paramount = Not a big deal!

I have zero interest in "buying" movies digitally...which is probably the same for every poster on this sub forum. If it comes with a BD...meh. But I won't seek out or purchase a UV title unless it's the same price as a rental ($6 or under).

mikemorel
03-24-2012, 07:26 AM
Just stop mike. I posted an article. From Bloomberg. Same article appeared in Businessweek, Wall Street Journal, Forbes, CNN, LA Times and over 100 other publications.

I don't know why anyone takes Mike seriously. The article is sensationalist journalism at it's best.IHS Screen Digest is now engaging in sensationalist journalism, because ack_bak does not agree.

We have been hearing for years from people like Mike that "time is slipping away" yet year after year physical media dominates the number that matters the most to studios. Revenue.Nope. I said time was slipping away for blu-ray establish itself as a dominant format. And time has slipped away for blu-ray as a dominant format - $2.x billion and 6000 titles after 6 years is a disappointment for content providers and retailers.

Would not surprise me if I could walk into a physical store and buy physical media 10 years from now.Funny, you replaced "blu-ray" with "physical media". And you used to say 15 years. Or 20 years.

But I agree. Wouldn't surprise me a bit either if I could walk into a physical store and buy physical media 10 years from now.

After all, hidef Ultraviolet files can be distributed on physical media.

bruceames
03-24-2012, 07:33 AM
I don't see UV as a threat either. Just like I didn't for Digital Copy.

But some of the things people are saying to try and discount UV applies directly to Blu-ray which they had no issues with.

UV does not have support from Disney = OMG! FAILURE!
Blu-ray did not have support from Universal and some titles from Warner and Paramount = Not a big deal!

I have zero interest in "buying" movies digitally...which is probably the same for every poster on this sub forum. If it comes with a BD...meh. But I won't seek out or purchase a UV title unless it's the same price as a rental ($6 or under).

I believe Tower and Psound expressed interest in building a UV library, but other than that can't think of anybody (maybe Mike?).

I see UV/digital as having more success with TV shows than with feature films, since that type of content is more appropriate viewing on small devices or away from the home.

Blu-ray is releasing next to nothing on TV shows, so something needs to fill in the sell-through gap.

mikemorel
03-24-2012, 08:22 AM
I believe Tower and Psound expressed interest in building a UV library, but other than that can't think of anybody (maybe Mike?).I have about a dozen titles. UV is a computer science experiment, at least until Q4.

IMO, many on message boards prefer to rip BDs and DVDs DRM free, and therefore have either no interest in UV, or they hate the idea and hope it dies. Which is becoming a large problem for studios. But they have seen it coming for quite some time.

Kosty
03-24-2012, 08:23 AM
Exactly. Apple doesn't support Blu-ray yet I don't see Ack up in arms about that. It's just the threat that UV imposes on precious Blu-ray is what gets people so crazy.

Who sees UltraViolet as a threat to Blu-ray? Not me, I like UV and see it as a great complement to Blu-ray.

The studios don't, retailers don't, posters that like Blu-ray like me don't. UV right now is supporting packaged media sell through. Digital like UV will eventually surpass physical media like Blu-ray but not soon and not completely anytime in the foreseeable future.

Who are you talking about that sees UltraViolet as a threat to Blu-ray?

Who is getting crazy?

Kosty
03-24-2012, 08:29 AM
I don't see any threat. As long as UV is an almost free pack-in with Blu-ray then it's actually supporting it, just like DVD is supporting Blu-ray by being included as a pack-in.

Just don't see any scenario where UV codes will be selling like hotcakes for $15-20 each. Not after consumers are so used to getting them included in nearly every major OD release. Seems the purpose is more to extend the life of OD, rather than become the "next gen" format.

So now we have 2 formats that Blu-ray is using as a crutch: UV and DVD.

I see it that way too except for the "crutch" comment. Adding UV in the package to encourage physical sales is a perfectly rational business move and more profit is always better. So if UV in a BD or DVD case is a tool to make more money it would be done no matter what the Blu-ray sales growth rate was in any case.

Kosty
03-24-2012, 08:35 AM
I believe Tower and Psound expressed interest in building a UV library, but other than that can't think of anybody (maybe Mike?).

I see UV/digital as having more success with TV shows than with feature films, since that type of content is more appropriate viewing on small devices or away from the home.

Blu-ray is releasing next to nothing on TV shows, so something needs to fill in the sell-through gap.

I like the idea too of having a digital cloud based UltraViolet library as well as a portable Internet accessible complement to my physical Blu-ray Disc library. Or a digital copy of my DVDs not available yet on higher quality Blu-ray.

But I'm not going to buy any pure digital only copy of something I can buy for an affordable price on higher quality Blu-ray Disc.

But UV right now is a test case science experiment in my mind.

Kosty
03-24-2012, 08:38 AM
I have about a dozen titles. UV is a computer science experiment, at least until Q4.

IMO, many on message boards prefer to rip BDs and DVDs DRM free, and therefore have either no interest in UV, or they hate the idea and hope it dies. Which is becoming a large problem for studios. But they have seen it coming for quite some time.

LOL. :lol:

The same words I just used.

I did not see your post before I used almost the exact phrase myself.



But UV right now is a test case science experiment in my mind.

Malanthius
03-24-2012, 09:07 AM
That's not fair. And I see you are already back to making it all about the poster and not about the post. Mike didn't write that article. And there have been many sensational articles about Bluray from the likes of HMM. Where were you to call those out? Exactly, you were nowhere to be found. So Spare us your comments if you are not even consistant. What a joke.

I don't know why anyone takes Mike seriously. The article is sensationalist journalism at it's best.

We all know that physical media is on the decline, but as you mentioned, it is going to be a very long time before physical media goes away, and it may never go away. So yeah. We have been hearing for years from people like Mike that "time is slipping away" yet year after year physical media dominates the number that matters the most to studios. Revenue.

Would not surprise me if I could walk into a physical store and buy physical media 10 years from now.

Ya Best Buy still sells LPs. I can see a little section of Blurays collecting dust. Probably have more DVDs in that section too.

bruceames
03-24-2012, 09:21 AM
I see it that way too except for the "crutch" comment. Adding UV in the package to encourage physical sales is a perfectly rational business move and more profit is always better. So if UV in a BD or DVD case is a tool to make more money it would be done no matter what the Blu-ray sales growth rate was in any case.

Well when Blu-ray barely breaks $2 billion sell-through with the aid of UV and DVD, "crutch" is probably too charitable a word. So far this year DVD is actually doing much better YoY than Blu-ray (vs. last year YoY), without those crutches. So it's questionable as to how much they're actually helping.

bombsnizzle
03-24-2012, 09:47 AM
Well when Blu-ray barely breaks $2 billion sell-through with the aid of UV and DVD, "crutch" is probably too charitable a word. So far this year DVD is actually doing much better YoY than Blu-ray (vs. last year YoY), without those crutches. So it's questionable as to how much they're actually helping.

DVDs now come with UV/digital copies. So you are wrong.

http://www.amazon.com/Hangover-Part-UltraViolet-Digital-Copy/dp/B004EPZ06G

bombsnizzle
03-24-2012, 09:50 AM
Exactly. Apple doesn't support Blu-ray yet I don't see Ack up in arms about that.

No. It's because Apple is synonymous with digital media. Apple is not synonymous with optical disc. Never has been.

UV is digital media. To be missing Apple is a big deal. You are simply unwilling to admit it or accept it.

It's just the threat that UV imposes on precious Blu-ray is what gets people so crazy.What threat is that exactly? Got any sales numbers for UV?

bruceames
03-24-2012, 10:02 AM
DVDs now come with UV/digital copies. So you are wrong.

http://www.amazon.com/Hangover-Part-UltraViolet-Digital-Copy/dp/B004EPZ06G


Thanks. I stand corrected. So that must be why DVD is doing so much better this year.

bombsnizzle
03-24-2012, 10:04 AM
I don't see UV as a threat either. Just like I didn't for Digital Copy.

So then why did you say this:
It's just the threat that UV imposes on precious Blu-ray is what gets people so crazy.

??????

bombsnizzle
03-24-2012, 10:09 AM
IHS Screen Digest is now engaging in sensationalist journalism, because ack_bak does not agree. Screen Digest also said bluray and HD DVD would co-exist. (http://beta.techradar.com/news/video/blu-ray/blu-ray-and-hd-dvd-formats-set-to-co-exist-165302) So...yeah...

Nope. I said time was slipping away for blu-ray establish itself as a dominant format.

Why? The way things are shaping up it will likely be the last mainstream physical format.

And time has slipped away for blu-ray as a dominant format - $2.x billion and 6000 titles after 6 years is a disappointment for content providers and retailers.Is it? Retailers are sad because there are only 6000 blurays? They stock all 6000 and are yearning for more?

After all, hidef Ultraviolet files can be distributed on physical media.Please let us all know when UV actually makes any studio real money on it's own. Hopefully it will be sooner than 10 years from now.

bruceames
03-24-2012, 11:32 AM
Screen Digest also said bluray and HD DVD would co-exist. (http://beta.techradar.com/news/video/blu-ray/blu-ray-and-hd-dvd-formats-set-to-co-exist-165302) So...yeah...

So a prediction = sensationalist journalism? :confused:


Why? The way things are shaping up it will likely be the last mainstream physical format.

True. There will probably be another physical format, but it won't be mainstream. Blu-ray is already overkill for the average consumer.


Is it? Retailers are sad because there are only 6000 blurays? They stock all 6000 and are yearning for more?

6000 is plenty for retailers to choose from, that's not an issue. The issue is that DVD is still releasing over 6 times as much as Blu-ray and a big reason why Blu-ray's sales are still anemic compared to DVD. It's hard to increase shelf space allocation for a new format, when the old one is still so dominant in sales and output. It's almost like Blu-ray is just a special feature for DVD.

Kosty
03-24-2012, 02:23 PM
Well when Blu-ray barely breaks $2 billion sell-through with the aid of UV and DVD, "crutch" is probably too charitable a word.


But whether or not adding DVD or Blu-ray to BD+DVD+UV combos is a crutch or a pair of running shoes to make the sales rate faster, its still a smart business move to generate more revenues from consumers that seem to think the combos are a fair value that they are willing to pay more for than the base sku with only a Blu-ray or DVD.

You seem to be set on assuming that they would not do it if Blu-ray sales rates were higher when there is really no evidence of that at all.

Obviously they all wish Blu-ray or DVD were even higher than they are at this time in any case and they would exploit any avenue to make more profit and extend the packaged media revenue stream as well.

So far this year DVD is actually doing much better YoY than Blu-ray (vs. last year YoY), without those crutches. So it's questionable as to how much they're actually helping.You once again want to ignore issues like the strength and genre of releases affecting the growth rate and things like lower Blu-ray prices for most of 2011 affecting the larger growth of Blu-ray units sold into revenue gains.

You can't just pretend that Twilight Saga did not help DVDs growth rate this year either.

Plus many DVD only releases this year have had UV copies as well so UltraViolet "crutches" have helped DVD sales rates this year as well.

Kosty
03-24-2012, 02:32 PM
Thanks. I stand corrected. So that must be why DVD is doing so much better this year.

Its a factor. But its kinda obvious that Twilight Saga is why DVD is doing so much better this year. DVD also had a better post Christmas sales rate as well but the YoY gain is concentrated in weeks 6 and 7 around Twilight.

Releases for DVD have just been more favorable this year with Twilight. Releases matter.

Blu-ray benefited as well but not as much.

http://i41.tinypic.com/33eiidi.jpg

http://i42.tinypic.com/mtro8z.jpg

http://i42.tinypic.com/mro2c.jpg

http://i43.tinypic.com/nez2u8.jpg

Kosty
03-24-2012, 02:44 PM
So a prediction = sensationalist journalism? :confused:



True. There will probably be another physical format, but it won't be mainstream. Blu-ray is already overkill for the average consumer.



6000 is plenty for retailers to choose from, that's not an issue. The issue is that DVD is still releasing over 6 times as much as Blu-ray and a big reason why Blu-ray's sales are still anemic compared to DVD. It's hard to increase shelf space allocation for a new format, when the old one is still so dominant in sales and output. It's almost like Blu-ray is just a special feature for DVD.

Most of those DVD releases do not get a big retail footprint on release at brick and mortar retailers. Blu-ray is steadily displacing DVD on retail shelves but DVD will be sold as long as its making money as well. Both products are high margin compared to most retail goods.

DVDs release rate has slowed since 2006 as the studios have run out good stuff from their libraries to release on DVD only and that's a major contributing factor to DVDs decline.

The pace of Blu-ray releases is enough to support retail and consumer demand and there is no reason to release at a faster rate where releases step more on each other. The DVD release rate also has more smaller content providers than Blu-ray has so the number of lower volume titles releases increases the sku count. Most Blu-ray releases get wider distribution and major retail presence so they have higher volumes per title than an average niche DVD release.

No one cares that much of Blu-ray sales in relationship to DVD if it means DVD is staying longer and continuing to make money. No one is in a hurry to kill off DVD just to make Blu-ray's numbers look better. Money made from either Blu-ray or legacy DVD sales is still green.

bruceames
03-24-2012, 03:16 PM
Its a factor. But its kinda obvious that Twilight Saga is why DVD is doing so much better this year. DVD also had a better post Christmas sales rate as well but the YoY gain is concentrated in weeks 6 and 7 around Twilight.

Releases for DVD have just been more favorable this year with Twilight. Releases matter.

Blu-ray benefited as well but not as much.



Wrong. Blu-ray benefited more from from Twilight than DVD did. According to your trusted source The-Numbers, the DVD earned $85 million and the Blu-ray $35 million.

So Twilight is responsible for 7.1% of DVDs total revenue, while the Blu-ray boasts a more impressive 9.5% of the format's revenue.

Without Twilight, Blu-ray YoY revenue would be 13%, or, 11.8% lower than it is now. 13% would be lower than last year by 4.7%.

Without Twilight, DVD YoY revenue would be -12.8%, or 6.2% lower than it is now. But -12.8% is still higher than the -20.3% of last year, by 7.5%

It's quite obvious that Blu-ray was helped more by Twilight than DVD.

Without Twilight, Blu-ary would be doing worse than last year, while DVD would not only still be doing better, but doing much better.

bruceames
03-24-2012, 03:44 PM
DVDs release rate has slowed since 2006 as the studios have run out good stuff from their libraries to release on DVD only and that's a major contributing factor to DVDs decline.

Hasn't slowed that much at all, and actually increased slightly last year. We're talking over 10,000 releases last year alone, how much could it have slowed down? That's right, not much. Meanwhile, some people are gloating over 6000 titles released in a format's lifetime. :haha:



No one cares that much of Blu-ray sales in relationship to DVD if it means DVD is staying longer and continuing to make money. No one is in a hurry to kill off DVD just to make Blu-ray's numbers look better. Money made from either Blu-ray or legacy DVD sales is still green.

Wrong again. Studios care very much about this. It's extremely important to have a gauge of how Blu-ray's sales are impacting those of DVD. I care about it myself because I like OD, I'm concerned about its well being. Furthermore the cause and effect relationship between the two is a subject that is very interesting to me.

bruceames
03-24-2012, 04:03 PM
You seem to be set on assuming that they would not do it if Blu-ray sales rates were higher when there is really no evidence of that at all.


I implied nothing of the sort. I actually believe that they would still use combos, but primarily to convert people to Blu-ray (by offering them a future proof option) and to those who want to own both version for greater flexibility.

Honestly, combo packs are a great value for those who actually need or use them. A disc for the kids, one for yourself, and a copy for the PC and mobile devices. Everything's covered and everyone's happy. No more worrying about lending your neighbor a copy either. Just loan him the one in the kid's room. A perfect world, and for only a few bucks more than the barebones DVD.

That's why it's amazing to me that Blu-ray doesn't do better in spite of its advantages. $2 billion?! GMAB. It would make for an interesting episode of Unsolved Mysteries.



You once again want to ignore issues like the strength and genre of releases affecting the growth rate and things like lower Blu-ray prices for most of 2011 affecting the larger growth of Blu-ray units sold into revenue gains.

I'm not ignoring release strength. TBO is up 10.5% this year. If anything, you're the one that's ignoring it, while crowing about Blu-ray being up 24.8% this year.

Regarding genre, I haven't seen one iota of proof from you that this year's genre mix thus far this year is weaker than last year. My guess is, that if there were any proof, you would have presented it by now. But all I hear from you is Twilight, Twilight, Twilight....

You can't just pretend that Twilight Saga did not help DVDs growth rate this year either.

Actually I just did. Read the post above, where I pretended Twilight didn't exist and saw what effect it had on both formats. In mathematical terms, no less.

Kosty
03-24-2012, 05:07 PM
Wrong. Blu-ray benefited more from from Twilight than DVD did. According to your trusted source The-Numbers, the DVD earned $85 million and the Blu-ray $35 million.

So Twilight is responsible for 7.1% of DVDs total revenue, while the Blu-ray boasts a more impressive 9.5% of the format's revenue.

Without Twilight, Blu-ray YoY revenue would be 13%, or, 11.8% lower than it is now. 13% would be lower than last year by 4.7%.

Without Twilight, DVD YoY revenue would be -12.8%, or 6.2% lower than it is now. But -12.8% is still higher than the -20.3% of last year, by 7.5%

It's quite obvious that Blu-ray was helped more by Twilight than DVD.

Without Twilight, Blu-ary would be doing worse than last year, while DVD would not only still be doing better, but doing much better.

The issue is not how much or how little Blu-ray was helped by Twilight. It certainly was. Even at 25% BD share better releases matter, just like poorer releases mattered last year.

The issue is how much Twilight Saga this year helped DVD as it obviously did and that's a major reason that DVD and OD is up this year. Blu-ray is up as well as a result of Twilight but the magnitude in the DVD change has a bigger impact on the overall statistics.

Kosty
03-24-2012, 05:11 PM
Its a factor. But its kinda obvious that Twilight Saga is why DVD is doing so much better this year. DVD also had a better post Christmas sales rate as well but the YoY gain is concentrated in weeks 6 and 7 around Twilight.

Releases for DVD have just been more favorable this year with Twilight. Releases matter.

Blu-ray benefited as well but not as much.



Wrong. Blu-ray benefited more from from Twilight than DVD did.

In the context of DVD only its clear that Twilight Saga in weeks 6 and 7 has dominated the DVD YoY growth.

I understand that Blu-ray as a percentage also was propped up by the better releases as well but what I meant that the raw magnitude of the increased DVD revenues were much higher than that of the Blu-ray increase so that had a larger impact on the overall OD statistics. You are certainly right that as a percentage its impact on Blu-ray has been greater but the magnitude impact on DVD was larger.

Kosty
03-24-2012, 05:29 PM
Hasn't slowed that much at all, and actually increased slightly last year. We're talking over 10,000 releases last year alone, how much could it have slowed down? That's right, not much. Meanwhile, some people are gloating over 6000 titles released in a format's lifetime. :haha:


Its slowed down a lot since 2006 for DVD. Last year was an exception.

DVD releases are slowing down again this year. Blu-ray is still increasing.

Most Blu-ray releases are new titles or major theatrical catalog releases in distribution at major retailers that do much more volume than many of the numerous DVD releases ever do. The DVD titles mostly only add up to substantial volumes and revenues when added together while a typical new to Blu-ray release does more volumes at this stage of the game.

No one cares that much of Blu-ray sales in relationship to DVD if it means DVD is staying longer and continuing to make money. No one is in a hurry to kill off DVD just to make Blu-ray's numbers look better. Money made from either Blu-ray or legacy DVD sales is still green.

Wrong again. Studios care very much about this. It's extremely important to have a gauge of how Blu-ray's sales are impacting those of DVD. I care about it myself because I like OD, I'm concerned about its well being. Furthermore the cause and effect relationship between the two is a subject that is very interesting to me.

What I meant was that no one is in a hurry to kill off DVD in order to increase the Blu-ray marketshare percentages or increase the Blu-ray revenue or unit sale statistics.

Observing the rise in Blu-ray marketshare is indeed important information from both the studio and retailer perspective as the growth in Blu-ray adoption is an important metric. But no one wants to deliberately reduce DVD sales just to make Blu-ray look good.

I understand that you and I care about the marketshare results as we follow this as interested hobbyists and its interesting to me of course as well. I meant that no one in the industry or retail cares enough about raising Blu-ray marketshare to a degree that they would want to reduce DVD revenues just to make Blu-ray gains look better.

DVD is still making a lot of money and no one wants to kill it off earlier than is already happening just to make Blu-ray stats look good.

http://i44.tinypic.com/344tffl.jpg

http://i39.tinypic.com/25j9kt3.jpg

Kosty
03-24-2012, 05:40 PM
I implied nothing of the sort. I actually believe that they would still use combos, but primarily to convert people to Blu-ray (by offering them a future proof option) and to those who want to own both version for greater flexibility.

Honestly, combo packs are a great value for those who actually need or use them. A disc for the kids, one for yourself, and a copy for the PC and mobile devices. Everything's covered and everyone's happy. No more worrying about lending your neighbor a copy either. Just loan him the one in the kid's room. A perfect world, and for only a few bucks more than the barebones DVD.

We both agree on this point at least.

I think the studios and retailers love combos as a higher margin product that consumers seem to want and be willing to pay more for. Everybody wins.

Its only the enthusiasts that assume that they are paying more for the extra disc they don't want that seem to have the most issues with them. But most consumers like more stuff in the package.

Kosty
03-24-2012, 05:47 PM
I'm not ignoring release strength. TBO is up 10.5% this year. If anything, you're the one that's ignoring it, while crowing about Blu-ray being up 24.8% this year.

Who is crowing about that number for Blu-ray? It is what it is.

Blu-ray has been up as well as it already has a peak of 33% YoY before falling a bit in the head to head Bambi week. Its probably going to gain some more in the next couple weeks as well.


Without an Avatar or Alice in Wonderland in last years comparisons coming up in the 2Q head to head matchups, its probable that Blu-ray is going to be well above the 10% YoY gain benchmark at the end of the 1Q and 2Q comparison periods or ever will reach the lowest depths of 7% that it had to climb out of last year. That will provide a much better start to the 2nd half of the year.

http://i42.tinypic.com/nefib9.jpg

bruceames
03-24-2012, 06:53 PM
The issue is not how much or how little Blu-ray was helped by Twilight. It certainly was. Even at 25% BD share better releases matter, just like poorer releases mattered last year.

The issue is how much Twilight Saga this year helped DVD as it obviously did and that's a major reason that DVD and OD is up this year. Blu-ray is up as well as a result of Twilight but the magnitude in the DVD change has a bigger impact on the overall statistics.


Magnitude is already accounted for in the YoY figures. We know that DVD has more magnitude than Blu-ray. It's 3 times bigger. That's what magnitude is.

YoY percentage change is a relative metric, not absolute. So any title which gets more than the normal revenue share (24%) for Blu-ray, helps the YoY Blu-ray metric more than the YoY DVD revenue change figure. Magnitude is irrelevant here.

bruceames
03-24-2012, 06:59 PM
Who is crowing about that number for Blu-ray? It is what it is.

Blu-ray has been up as well as it already has a peak of 33% YoY before falling a bit in the head to head Bambi week. Its probably going to gain some more in the next couple weeks as well.


Without an Avatar or Alice in Wonderland in last years comparisons coming up in the 2Q head to head matchups, its probable that Blu-ray is going to be well above the 10% YoY gain benchmark at the end of the 1Q and 2Q comparison periods or ever will reach the lowest depths of 7% that it had to climb out of last year. That will provide a much better start to the 2nd half of the year.

http://i42.tinypic.com/nefib9.jpg

You seemed proud of that 33% it once had, already mentioning it at least twice in this thread.

Lady and the Tramp cancels last year's Bambi effect.

Avatar is from 2010, not even last year. Are you going to bring it up next year too? In any case, Avatar's conversion ratio was sub par, so it can't be used as an excuse (although it's a year too late to use it now, even if you wanted to).

Kosty
03-24-2012, 07:09 PM
You seemed proud of that 33% it once had, already mentioning it at least twice in this thread.

Lady and the Tramp cancels last year's Bambi effect.

Avatar is from 2010, not even last year. Are you going to bring it up next year too? In any case, Avatar's conversion ratio was sub par, so it can't be used as an excuse.

I am not using Avatar as an excuse. I'm just observing that unlike last year when Avatar from the year before drove down the YoY Blu-ray growth metric, we had no Avatar last year in 2011. So there will not be anything analogous like Avatar and Alice in Wonderland to drive down the metric. So Blu-ray's rate this year is likely to remain higher throughout the 1Q and 2Q periods.

You are the one bringing up last year's 20% growth rate for 2011 over 2010, not me, and Avatar obviously was a large part of that statistical comparison.

We will see how it moves along in the future and if it sustains itself over time at a higher percentage than the 10% 1Q or 2Q or 2H points or higher than its lows of 7% last year, That seems likely.

I was just observing that the YoY benchmark for Blu-ray peaked this year at 32.69% right after Twilight Saga so it clearly had a positive effect on Blu-ray as well. Bambi was just the week afterwords where it fell as Blu-ray gained more that week last year than DVD.

The 33% peak rate is the highest we have ever seen for that metric for Blu-ray and it clearly shows that better releases have helped Blu-ray as well. It also clearly indicates that that YoY metric is trending upward this year overall in line with the better releases and is already at a point that is likely to trend back up to in the next couple weeks.

Kosty
03-24-2012, 07:23 PM
You seemed proud of that 33% it once had, already mentioning it at least twice in this thread.



The 33% high mark is relevant as with the next couple weeks being a bit lighter for Blu-ray revenues last year its more probable that the Blu-ray YoY metric will trend back up between where it is right now and that high water mark.

Then we have the last week of this quarter and first couple weeks of the 2Q with Easter releases Tangled Tron Legacy and Harry Potter 7.1 from last year going against Hop and Easter releases Alvin and the Chipmunks, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Warhorse and Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol this year. After that head to head high volume period there is not a lot for 2011 until we get to mid September.

So its likely that we will be between 25% where we are right now and the year's peak of 33% before the three week higher volume period and where we end up after that will be the baseline for and through the end of the first half of the year until we get through August.

Both Blu-ray and DVD YoY metrics will benefit this year by not having to compete in the 2Q with an Avatar or Alice in Wonderland.

If during the summer Blu-ray steadily gains in that lower volume period with some better new to Blu-ray catalog releases and steadily improves in catalog sales then that mark should also gradually rise until we get to the head to head summer tentpoles once again. But that's a lot better shape than where we were last year.

http://i42.tinypic.com/nefib9.jpg

ack_bak
03-24-2012, 09:56 PM
Exactly. Apple doesn't support Blu-ray yet I don't see Ack up in arms about that. It's just the threat that UV imposes on precious Blu-ray is what gets people so crazy.

There is a huge difference. Apple owns the largest piece of digital sales and is a big piece of the digital rental pie. Apple has over 100 million registered iTunes users and owns the Tablet market, is a huge player in the cell phone market, and iTunes exists at the desktop on trh PC and the Mac. UV needs Apple much more than Blu-Ray needs Apple. If you have to have Blu-Ray on your Mac you can buy and external drive.

Malanthius
03-24-2012, 10:53 PM
Its slowed down a lot since 2006 for DVD. Last year was an exception.

DVD releases are slowing down again this year. Blu-ray is still increasing.

Most Blu-ray releases are new titles or major theatrical catalog releases in distribution at major retailers that do much more volume than many of the numerous DVD releases ever do. The DVD titles mostly only add up to substantial volumes and revenues when added together while a typical new to Blu-ray release does more volumes at this stage of the game.





What I meant was that no one is in a hurry to kill off DVD in order to increase the Blu-ray market share percentages or increase the Blu-ray revenue or unit sale statistics.

Observing the rise in Blu-ray market share is indeed important information from both the studio and retailer perspective as the growth in Blu-ray adoption is an important metric. But no one wants to deliberately reduce DVD sales just to make Blu-ray look good.

I understand that you and I care about the market share results as we follow this as interested hobbyists and its interesting to me of course as well. I meant that no one in the industry or retail cares enough about raising Blu-ray market share to a degree that they would want to reduce DVD revenues just to make Blu-ray gains look better.

DVD is still making a lot of money and no one wants to kill it off earlier than is already happening just to make Blu-ray stats look good.


1,2,3,4 times the same thing was said by you in your post! I asked you a question earlier about this and you never answered. I ask again. What makes you say these things? Why would the studios care if Bluray looked good? Why wouldn't they want it to look good? It's the higher margin. That's a lot of cockamamie from you Kosty. The studios can't do it because it would be a disaster for them! They know it, you know it, and we all know it. They know how poorly bluray is being accepted. That's the reason they can't get rid of DVD.

You try to make it sound like they could do it if they wanted to. But they are not going to do it just to make Bluray look good. Bluray would not look good. Except to maybe you who would be jumping for joy at Blurays 100% market share. Of course you would ignore the rest of us telling you the real story is not so pretty.

Please tell me how well you think Bluray would do if the studios decided to kill off DVD. And how good that would be for the industry? :haha:

HD Goofnut
03-24-2012, 11:04 PM
Please tell me how well you think Bluray would do if the studios decided to kill off DVD. And how good that would be for the industry? :haha:

I honestly think ditching the DVD only SKUs would work wonders. It would cut down on costs and there would be less confusion among consumers. Release a BD/DVD/DC for new releases and be done with it. Also, if there's a new catalog release on BD that has never been released on DVD release it as a BD/DVD combo otherwise keep catalog SKUs BD only.

Kosty
03-24-2012, 11:59 PM
1,2,3,4 times the same thing was said by you in your post! I see your point. But if you cannot see the small differences there I'm not sure what more I can say to add to it.

I'm not writing professional ad copy or a political speech here either its an immediate post on a discussion forum. But there are some different reasons there in many of those phrases even if the basic idea is the same.

I asked you a question earlier about this and you never answered. I ask again. What makes you say these things? Why would the studios care if Bluray looked good? Why wouldn't they want it to look good? It's the higher margin. That's a lot of cockamamie from you Kosty. The studios can't do it because it would be a disaster for them! They know it, you know it, and we all know it. They know how poorly bluray is being accepted. That's the reason they can't get rid of DVD.

:haha: That's you projecting your biases on the situation.

Look its simple.

DVD is still making money even as its in decline.

That's lots of money on high margin sales compared to most consumer goods so retailers are also in no hurry to eliminate DVD sales.

Sure Blu-ray is higher margin and all things considered the studios and retailers want to encourage Blu-ray adoption but that's happening naturally as more and more Blu-ray players are sold and Blu-ray household adoption increases. Things like more and more BD+DVD+UV combo packs encourage Blu-ray adoption too by placing more Blu-ray Discs in DVD only households.

But there just is no reason to rush it while DVD by itself is still a high margin profitable product in comparison to SVOD or Redbox $1.20 DVD rentals. Blu-ray has long passed survival stage and is sustainable and growing by itself anyway and is already reaching marketshare benchmarks where market forces will naturally take care of things all by itself. DVD is still making money so what's the hurry?

You try to make it sound like they could do it if they wanted to. But they are not going to do it just to make Bluray look good. Bluray would not look good. Except to maybe you who would be jumping for joy at Blurays 100% market share. Of course you would ignore the rest of us telling you the real story is not so pretty. They are not going to do it and they do not want to do it anyway. DVD still makes a lot of money even in decline. No one wants to throw that away especially when Blu-ray still is growing in marketshare and revenues and even greater in units sold year after year. Besides laggard DVD users now are still better than Netflix streaming or Redbox kiosk rentals even if they are not higher margin Blu-ray users.


Please tell me how well you think Bluray would do if the studios decided to kill off DVD. And how good that would be for the industry? No reason to answer that hypothetical as its never going to happen anytime soon.

Blu-ray is not at universal household adoption and it would be pretty dumb for the studios and retailers to do that and abandon all the legacy DVD owners that do not have Blu-ray players in their homes.

Why in the heck would they do that now?

What might happen more and more is that dual capable BD+DVD+UV copies might displace DVD more and more for older titles in retail inventory as well as for the new releases that's happening now.

But those BD+DVD combos still serve the legacy DVD consumer group just as well as smaller content provider DVD releases also can be player and marketed to Blu-ray owners as well.

Eventually maybe Blu-ray marketshares will be large enough and DVD so low that only BD+DVD+UV skus will be shipped out for new releases, but I do not think that's going to happen anytime soon. But DVD versions in the sets will still service DVD only consumers. Its possible it could happen for catalog titles sooner.

Kosty
03-25-2012, 12:05 AM
I honestly think ditching the DVD only SKUs would work wonders. It would cut down on costs and there would be less confusion among consumers. Release a BD/DVD/DC for new releases and be done with it. Also, if there's a new catalog release on BD that has never been released on DVD release it as a BD/DVD combo otherwise keep catalog SKUs BD only.

I think that its more and more possible for new releases and new to Blu-ray releases to work just like that in the coming years. Right now the proportion of BD+DVD combo titles or Blu-ray vs DVD only skus is steadily increasing over time.

But DVD only titles now for new releases pretty much as now shipped to sell to exhaustion within 4 weeks of release and more and more BD+DVD combos get sent out as they can cover both formats and can stay relevant for long term inventory.

Eventually Blu-ray marketshares and household penetration will be large enough that the DVD only portion will be small enough to make such a change worthwhile. Selling BD+DVD combos also encourages adoption to Blu-ray as well.

The DVD portion is still large enough that probably too risky to endanger that DVD only revenue stream at the moment and that outweighs the other inventory and confusion benefits. The studios make all those different skus and DVD only versions because the retailers want them to sell.

bruceames
03-25-2012, 09:32 AM
1,2,3,4 times the same thing was said by you in your post! I asked you a question earlier about this and you never answered. I ask again. What makes you say these things? Why would the studios care if Bluray looked good? Why wouldn't they want it to look good? It's the higher margin. That's a lot of cockamamie from you Kosty. The studios can't do it because it would be a disaster for them! They know it, you know it, and we all know it. They know how poorly bluray is being accepted. That's the reason they can't get rid of DVD.

You try to make it sound like they could do it if they wanted to. But they are not going to do it just to make Bluray look good. Bluray would not look good. Except to maybe you who would be jumping for joy at Blurays 100% market share. Of course you would ignore the rest of us telling you the real story is not so pretty.

Please tell me how well you think Bluray would do if the studios decided to kill off DVD. And how good that would be for the industry? :haha:

It was a disaster for Disney to just delay a major DVD release (POTC4) for 4 weeks after the Blu-ray, much less eliminate it. Sales of the poor DVD barely broke 1 million copies in the months after it was released, while POTC3 sold over 10 million copies on DVD alone. I will be surprised if Disney repeats that experiment on an equal caliber title this year.

bruceames
03-25-2012, 09:44 AM
I honestly think ditching the DVD only SKUs would work wonders. It would cut down on costs and there would be less confusion among consumers. Release a BD/DVD/DC for new releases and be done with it. Also, if there's a new catalog release on BD that has never been released on DVD release it as a BD/DVD combo otherwise keep catalog SKUs BD only.


I agree on the catalogs, but it's too soon to do away with the DVD only SKU on new releases. It's still doing about 65% of the volume on average. The 4 week POTC4 release window for DVD proved that those lost sales will not move to Blu-ray. That's the key.

When it get to about 30-40% then they will start to eliminate it I would think. But it would depend on the genre and sales potential. The bigger the BD share it's projected to have (action/adventure/sci-fi especially), the more likely they are to eliminate the DVD-only SKU. And the higher the sales potential, the less likely they are to eliminate it. So the first candidates would be action/adventure movies with low to moderate sales potential. The last to go would be comedy/drama blockbuster movies and those geared toward children.

Kosty
03-25-2012, 01:19 PM
It was a disaster for Disney to just delay a major DVD release (POTC4) for 4 weeks after the Blu-ray, much less eliminate it. Sales of the poor DVD barely broke 1 million copies in the months after it was released, while POTC3 sold over 10 million copies on DVD alone. I will be surprised if Disney repeats that experiment on an equal caliber title this year.

POTC3 was released in 2007 and was heavily discounted at retail.

That's a different world than when POTC4 was released in 2012 without much discounting.

The more than 3 million combo skus also were sold at a higher price point than the DVD as well and generated more revenues than the DVD only versions. We know some of those DVD style and Blu-ray style case sales went to DVD owners so the possibility of lost DVD unit sales was offset by those sales.

We will see how soon Disney does it again and if they do a similar thing this fall then we will probably know that they were less disappointed in the results than you were for the strategy of the DVD only delay.

They probably had different expectations than you did and they also received benefits from the promotional aspect of getting Blu-ray Discs into households to increase family Blu-ray household adoption.

I'm not sure how POTC4 fared overall in total revenues or units sold to other titles released last year in similar genres but it still was one of the best selling titles for last year. You are speculating on how much it would have sold without the DVD delay and making assumptions there without a lot of data.

The higher Blu-ray marketshares for family genre Blu-ray titles this year and high sales rates of titles like Lady and the Tramp do indicate that families are increasing Blu-ray adoption and that the Disney promotion of Blu-ray has shown some results.

Kosty
03-25-2012, 01:35 PM
I agree on the catalogs, but it's too soon to do away with the DVD only SKU on new releases. It's still doing about 65% of the volume on average. The 4 week POTC4 release window for DVD proved that those lost sales will not move to Blu-ray. That's the key.

When it get to about 30-40% then they will start to eliminate it I would think. But it would depend on the genre and sales potential. The bigger the BD share it's projected to have (action/adventure/sci-fi especially), the more likely they are to eliminate the DVD-only SKU. And the higher the sales potential, the less likely they are to eliminate it. So the first candidates would be action/adventure movies with low to moderate sales potential. The last to go would be comedy/drama blockbuster movies and those geared toward children.

I agree that its too early to do away with the DVD only skus for new releases. The studios and retailers do too and that's why we have not seen that strategy except with the POTC4 test case and some other minor releases.

Having said what I just said above of what Disney's expectations of versus the results of POTC4 and its added promotional benefit, I agree in any case that the results there were not large enough to light a fire under that strategy for DVD only titles to be delayed from a combo release.

But I agree with your assessment of what titles would be the likely first candidates for elimination or delay of the DVD only skus.

But there really is not a lot of rationale for it from a elimination of a sku or inventory issues as retailers want a lot of skus during the early release weeks anyway. Shipped DVD skus can cater to the cost conscious DVD users on the release weeks and can be sold to exhaustion anyway if the shipped quantities are right in any case and you can reduce the sku count on display by just keeping the BD+DVD combo for longer term inventory.

Until Blu-ray marketshares rise a bit more and DVD shares fall more it does not make a lot of sense to eliminate or delay the DVD sku for new releases. Disney has successfully changed consumer perceptions of that for its classic animation new to Blu-ray combo releases but that may not make sense for the larger day and date titles yet.

Disney doing that for POTC4 had a strong promotion of Blu-ray aspect to it before the holiday season and strong hardware holiday seasonal sales season that also was a part of their decision making process.

At the time last year, Cars 2 was also talked about at DVD RR and other venues as also another possibility for a major day and date title with a DVD only delay. The fact that only POTC4 and African Cats were the only new releases that used that strategy indicated that not only was it a test case but also it was intended as a promotional event to encourage Blu-ray adoption as well.

GizmoDVD
03-25-2012, 04:22 PM
POTC3 was released in 2007 and was heavily discounted at retail.

That's a different world than when POTC4 was released in 2012 without much discounting.

ts.

You have proof to back up these statements?

POTC4 had coupons. You're making stuff up again.

Both titles were heavily discounted. Comparing a 2007 release to one 3 (2011 release BTW) years later? Wow.

Best Buy
Blu-ray Combo Pack (includes Standard DVD) - $22.99
Blu-ray 3D Combo Pack (includes Blu-ray 3D, Blu-ray, Standard DVD and Digital Copy) - $26.99 ($21.99 after coupon) *Best Buy exclusive includes bonus Blu-ray disc with behind-the-scenes and more*

$22 for the super duper set. Don't try making things up that can be easily checked. Once again you were proven wrong. Ridiculous. It's as if you don't think anyone has access to Google.

bombsnizzle
03-25-2012, 04:37 PM
You have proof to back up these statements?

POTC4 had coupons. You're making stuff up again.

Both titles were heavily discounted. Comparing a 2007 release to one 3 (2011 release BTW) years later? Wow.

Best Buy


$22 for the super duper set. Don't try making things up that can be easily checked. Once again you were proven wrong. Ridiculous. It's as if you don't think anyone has access to Google.
$13.99/$14.88/$14.99 for the 1 disc version.

http://forum.dvdtalk.com/dvd-bargains/518857-target-dvd-prices-december-2-8-2007-a.html

http://forum.dvdtalk.com/dvd-bargains/518867-circuit-city-dvd-prices-december-2-8-2007-a.html

http://forum.dvdtalk.com/dvd-bargains/518770-frys-ads-11-30-12-4-updated-daily.html

http://www.hometheaterforum.com/t/265598/weekly-roundup-12-4-2007

A new release blockbuster for $13.99? Seems pretty cheap to me.

You know for a fact people bought the more expensive 2 disc set???

Kosty
03-25-2012, 04:41 PM
You have proof to back up these statements?

POTC4 had coupons. You're making stuff up again.

Both titles were heavily discounted. Comparing a 2007 release to one 3+ years later? Wow.

I am not making it up. Just because you do not remember or choose to do a little research to find out for yourself is not my fault, that's your issue. There were major holiday discounts of it at the time and it was generally seen as a loss leader pricing strategy for POTC4 and other releases as an effort not only to spur DVD sales but also to jump start the holiday sales season at major retailers.

We have discussed this in detail before. Pirates of the Caribbean - At World's End, The Bourne Ultimatum and Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix at the time was heavily discounted at retail on DVD during their initial holiday release weeks on 4Q 2007 and there is evidence based on the ASP for their release week during holiday season Dec 2007 at major retailers. They all had a much lower price points around $15 or less than most other major DVD releases in the past had recently had and was used as a holiday loss leader in pricing. It was widely reported at the time.

The combo releases of POTC4 in both the DVD and Blu-ray style case trim skus were at a much higher retail price point and were not heavily discounted at retail nor used as loss leader post Black Friday promotions. Even though there might have been Disney coupons that's a whole different thing that major retailers using loss leader pricing for the release.

Wow back at you for not remembering the circumstances or the recent discussions we had on the subject last year.

I do agree that its difficult to compare a DVD released in the height of the Black Friday to Christmas holiday season in Dec 2007 near DVDs peak with a sequel released earlier in the season five years later.

bombsnizzle
03-25-2012, 04:43 PM
We have discussed this in detail before. POTC3 at the time was heavily discounted at retail on DVD during its release and there is evidence based on the ASP for its release week during holiday season Dec 2007 at major retailers. It had a much lower price point than most other major DVD releases that year and was used as a holiday loss leader in pricing.

See my post above. It was as low as $13.99.

Kosty
03-25-2012, 04:56 PM
See my post above. It was as low as $13.99.

Thank you for that confirming research.

Pirates of the Caribbean - At World's End was also the best selling DVD of 2007 and I don't think anyone was saying that Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides released earlier in the season was expected to be the bestselling title of 2012.

POTC 3 did a lot more box office and POTC 4 box office was inflated by the 3D premiums as well.

The POTC 3 average retail price points were a lot less than what retailers priced the combo versions of POTC4 or IIRC even the DVD only versions a full 5 years later.

Kinda apples to oranges in the comparisons between the releases separated by 5 years and different circumstances.

bombsnizzle
03-25-2012, 05:04 PM
Thank you for that confirming research.

Pirates of the Caribbean - At World's End was also the best selling DVD of 2007 and I don't think anyone was saying that Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides released earlier in the season was expected to be the bestselling title of 2012.

The POTC3 average retail price points were a lot less than what retailers priced the combo versions of POTC4 or IIRC even the DVD only versions a full 5 years later.

It was also the last of the trilogy, and the last with the full cast.

Kosty
03-26-2012, 01:08 AM
The following is a couple posts on the impact that the DVD only delay had on POTC 4 sales. There was speculation that the strategy of DVD only delay and selling only Blu-ray+DVD only combos was unwise for Disney for that day and date release. I'm not sure the best available data we have on unit sales and revenues for that title supports that conclusion.

Earlier this year I was told that there was several ways that could be used to judge the relative impact of the DVD delay of Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides and that the impact was probably minor in units and even closer in revenues and probably was justified by the promotional benefit to Blu-ray that occurred by that strategy. We will probably confirm that if Disney does the same thing for a major release again this fall.

I'll try to explain what I mean and see if it makes sense to you guys.

First off we knew that Blu-ray marketshare of Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides was 58.49% for Black Friday week ending 11/28/11 a high volume sales week when both versions were available. That week would also be expected to have a higher DVD share than at release if there was a hypothetical DVD only version concurrent with the BD+DVD or DVD+BD style case combo skus. That's in line with similar action adventure type titles so at the most for the DVD only share at risk we are only talking less than half of all OD sales for that title and probably less than the units intended for Blu-ray only or first use that would have bought the combo or Blu-ray only version anyway.

The year before Beauty and the Beast combos had a 45:55 split for Blu-ray style cases and DVD style cases. I was not able to get the sku split for POTC 4 that I got from Beauty and the Beast for its release a year before but its likely that its around the same magnitude a year later.

So its fairly reasonable to think that somewhere between 40-55% of the combo skus were in the DVD style cases. At CES I was told that the POTC 4 sales were roughly a 50:50 sales split and that syncs with my anecdotal retail observations at the time.

Also at the time it seemed that the POTC 4 sales were about normal in relationship to the shipped and pre packed inventory as there were no reports of excess inventory being sent back and the inventory sent to retail seemed to have normal depletion rates for a new release. So its pretty probable that Disney sold about as many units on the BD+DVD and DVD+BD style cases as they expected to do at the time.

So if the two combo versions of POTC 4 sold roughly 3.2 million units then roughly half were bought by DVD owners that if the DVD only version was sold would have bought the DVD only version instead at a lower price point.

So that's around 1.6 million units of the combo sku filling DVD households needs in the combo sales alone. Add in the roughly 1 million subsequent DVD only sales of POTC 4 then you get around 2.6 million sales to DVD users, with 60% of those sales being higher priced higher margin combos. There were only 8 titles that TN reported having over 3 milion DVD unit sales in 2011 as well, so the possible lost sales for POTC 4 DVD units has a ceiling in 2011.

Transformers: Dark of the Moon with a much higher $352 M box office and similar genre only did 2,628,787 DVD units in 2011 as reported by TN. That seems roughly comparable to POTC 4 in performance if we allocate some of the BD+DVD combo sales to DVD users. POTC 4 in 2012 on DVD was just not going to perform like POTC3 did in 2007 under any circumstance but the DVD sales seem to be pretty much in line with its peers.

POTC 4 was released in both DVD style cases and Blu-ray style cases at the time of release and the DVD case version was aimed at DVD only households and was placed in the DVD sections at point of sale brick and mortar locations and the isle display prepacks were just the same for someone wanting a DVD version as with other major releases The only difference was a Blu-ray Disc was a bonus in the DVD package and may have cost more at retail. But the POTC 4 combos were not that much higher than a typical Disney major new release.

A DVD version then of POTC 4 was in effect available at the time of release with the idea that it also included a bonus Blu-ray in the package. Many DVD only customers bought the DVD style case version at the time of the release. A million more bought the lessor priced DVD only sku a month later.

The only argument that can be made that the delay of the DVD only version of POTC 4 caused a huge loss in units sold seems to be in the pessimistic assumption that many DVD only consumers balked at paying the higher price for the DVD style case DVD+BD combo sku as a new release and later never bought the cheaper DVD only version. But most consumers at the time never knew that a cheaper DVD only version was scheduled for release. They only saw what was displayed at retail. Besides the fact that retailers set the final prices at retail.

Then to have affected the cumulative DVD total sales they hypothetically were so upset that the combo was somehow costing more than it should at retail because it had a Blu-ray Disc in it that they would not by a new release they wanted and just boycotted buying the combo version.

Then they were still so upset that they failed to join the million other consumers that a month after the combo release came out they still boycotted buying the cheaper DVD only sku during the height of the holiday season.

That seems unlikely.

Plus there is the factor that any DVD only consumer that did but the more expensive combo packs on their release date generated some extra revenues and profits than they would have done by buying a DVD only version at that time. Then you have to add in the promotional aspect of placing more Blu-ray Discs in households just before the peak holiday sales season.

You just cannot compare POTC4 to POTC3 five years before, that's illogical. You have to compare the DVD sales or Blu-ray and DVD sales or combo sales to other similar performing titles in the context of typical sales in 2011. When you do that you can see that any possible loss of DVD sales that Disney may have had with the DVD only delay strategy for POTC4 is much more limited and it probably was not the "disaster" that some here assume.

I do not think that there were any industry reports or press reports or analyst reports or Disney financial calls that mentioned any poor results from that DVD delay of Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides at all. The only mention I have ever seen of that is among the fellas that talk about it here.

Even if the DVD only sales of POTC 4 were depressed and not made made up in the subsequent 28 days later DVD only release, I think the possible range of any lost sales is much less than some of the assumptions that have been made here would seem to suggest.

Some of you will obviously still disagree with my logic and reasoning here but at least I tried and hopefully gave you something to think about.


http://i52.tinypic.com/1zqwzcx.jpg

Kosty
03-26-2012, 02:39 AM
Another way of looking at it.

Transformers: Dark of the Moon (WE 10/02/11)
($352 M box office)

Units Format Revenue

3,264,720 Blu-ray $68,842,164
2,748,684 DVD $46,731,930
6,013,404 Total $115,574,094


Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (WE 11/20/11)
($241 M box office)

Units Format Revenue

3,200,915 Blu-ray $83,464,826 (BD+DVD combos counted as Blu-ray)
1,105,620 DVD $19,145,780
4,306,535 Total $102,610,606


Here is the latest information on the Blu-ray and DVD sales from The-Numbers of these two comparable titles from 2011.

It seems that although POTC 4 had a lot less box office power $241 M vs $352 M box office for Transformers DOTM (-32% less BO) the reported revenues were much closer (-11.5%).

That's because the Blu-ray revenues and units for POTC4 were much higher because of the higher unit percentage and revenues generated by the BD+DVD and DVD+BD combos counted as Blu-ray sales for POTC 4.

With $111 M less box office power its reported that POTC 4 did only $13 M less revenues in total than Transformers DOTM moon did in the period.

That hardly seems like a "disaster" then at all.

It seems that the higher price points and unit volumes of the combos for POTC4 made up for a lot more of DVD only sales at lessor price points for Transformers DOTM.

Some difference is the seasonality of the release dates WE 11/20/11 vs WE 10/02/11 but both were 4Q releases with similar genres.

It seems that the higher revenues from the BD+DVD combos made up for less DVD units sold and allowed POTC 4 to generate more revenues in comparison to its box office performance.


Even if you disagree with The-Numbers data in magnitude, for comparisons with these two titles its apples to apples with the same methodology.

GizmoDVD
03-26-2012, 08:18 AM
The following is a couple posts on the impact that the DVD only delay had on POTC 4 sales. There was speculation that the strategy of DVD only delay and selling only Blu-ray+DVD only combos was unwise for Disney for that day and date release. I'm not sure the best available data we have on unit sales and revenues for that title supports that conclusion.

Earlier this year I was told that there was several ways that could be used to judge the relative impact of the DVD delay of Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides and that the impact was probably minor in units and even closer in revenues and probably was justified by the promotional benefit to Blu-ray that occurred by that strategy. We will probably confirm that if Disney does the same thing for a major release again this fall.

I'll try to explain what I mean and see if it makes sense to you guys.

First off we knew that Blu-ray marketshare of Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides was 58.49% for Black Friday week ending 11/28/11 a high volume sales week when both versions were available. That week would also be expected to have a higher DVD share than at release if there was a hypothetical DVD only version concurrent with the BD+DVD or DVD+BD style case combo skus. That's in line with similar action adventure type titles so at the most for the DVD only share at risk we are only talking less than half of all OD sales for that title and probably less than the units intended for Blu-ray only or first use that would have bought the combo or Blu-ray only version anyway.

The year before Beauty and the Beast combos had a 45:55 split for Blu-ray style cases and DVD style cases. I was not able to get the sku split for POTC 4 that I got from Beauty and the Beast for its release a year before but its likely that its around the same magnitude a year later.

So its fairly reasonable to think that somewhere between 40-55% of the combo skus were in the DVD style cases. At CES I was told that the POTC 4 sales were roughly a 50:50 sales split and that syncs with my anecdotal retail observations at the time.

Also at the time it seemed that the POTC 4 sales were about normal in relationship to the shipped and pre packed inventory as there were no reports of excess inventory being sent back and the inventory sent to retail seemed to have normal depletion rates for a new release. So its pretty probable that Disney sold about as many units on the BD+DVD and DVD+BD style cases as they expected to do at the time.

So if the two combo versions of POTC 4 sold roughly 3.2 million units then roughly half were bought by DVD owners that if the DVD only version was sold would have bought the DVD only version instead at a lower price point.

So that's around 1.6 million units of the combo sku filling DVD households needs in the combo sales alone. Add in the roughly 1 million subsequent DVD only sales of POTC 4 then you get around 2.6 million sales to DVD users, with 60% of those sales being higher priced higher margin combos. There were only 8 titles that TN reported having over 3 milion DVD unit sales in 2011 as well, so the possible lost sales for POTC 4 DVD units has a ceiling in 2011.

Transformers: Dark of the Moon with a much higher $352 M box office and similar genre only did 2,628,787 DVD units in 2011 as reported by TN. That seems roughly comparable to POTC 4 in performance if we allocate some of the BD+DVD combo sales to DVD users. POTC 4 in 2012 on DVD was just not going to perform like POTC3 did in 2007 under any circumstance but the DVD sales seem to be pretty much in line with its peers.

POTC 4 was released in both DVD style cases and Blu-ray style cases at the time of release and the DVD case version was aimed at DVD only households and was placed in the DVD sections at point of sale brick and mortar locations and the isle display prepacks were just the same for someone wanting a DVD version as with other major releases The only difference was a Blu-ray Disc was a bonus in the DVD package and may have cost more at retail. But the POTC 4 combos were not that much higher than a typical Disney major new release.

A DVD version then of POTC 4 was in effect available at the time of release with the idea that it also included a bonus Blu-ray in the package. Many DVD only customers bought the DVD style case version at the time of the release. A million more bought the lessor priced DVD only sku a month later.

The only argument that can be made that the delay of the DVD only version of POTC 4 caused a huge loss in units sold seems to be in the pessimistic assumption that many DVD only consumers balked at paying the higher price for the DVD style case DVD+BD combo sku as a new release and later never bought the cheaper DVD only version. But most consumers at the time never knew that a cheaper DVD only version was scheduled for release. They only saw what was displayed at retail. Besides the fact that retailers set the final prices at retail.

Then to have affected the cumulative DVD total sales they hypothetically were so upset that the combo was somehow costing more than it should at retail because it had a Blu-ray Disc in it that they would not by a new release they wanted and just boycotted buying the combo version.

Then they were still so upset that they failed to join the million other consumers that a month after the combo release came out they still boycotted buying the cheaper DVD only sku during the height of the holiday season.

That seems unlikely.

Plus there is the factor that any DVD only consumer that did but the more expensive combo packs on their release date generated some extra revenues and profits than they would have done by buying a DVD only version at that time. Then you have to add in the promotional aspect of placing more Blu-ray Discs in households just before the peak holiday sales season.

You just cannot compare POTC4 to POTC3 five years before, that's illogical. You have to compare the DVD sales or Blu-ray and DVD sales or combo sales to other similar performing titles in the context of typical sales in 2011. When you do that you can see that any possible loss of DVD sales that Disney may have had with the DVD only delay strategy for POTC4 is much more limited and it probably was not the "disaster" that some here assume.

I do not think that there were any industry reports or press reports or analyst reports or Disney financial calls that mentioned any poor results from that DVD delay of Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides at all. The only mention I have ever seen of that is among the fellas that talk about it here.

Even if the DVD only sales of POTC 4 were depressed and not made made up in the subsequent 28 days later DVD only release, I think the possible range of any lost sales is much less than some of the assumptions that have been made here would seem to suggest.

Some of you will obviously still disagree with my logic and reasoning here but at least I tried and hopefully gave you something to think about.


http://i52.tinypic.com/1zqwzcx.jpg

I think it's hilarious you wrote 21 paragraphs on this. This clearly goes beyond the "hobby" aspect.

mikemorel
03-26-2012, 09:06 AM
Another way of looking at it.

Here is the latest information on the Blu-ray and DVD sales from The-Numbers of these two comparable titles from 2011.
And The-Numbers said (http://www.the-numbers.com/weekly-bluray-sales-chart) the top ten blu-ray titles sold $76,540,238 for the week ending March 11th.

Nice try.

:haha:

ack_bak
03-26-2012, 09:10 AM
Still trying to figure out what happened to the AppleTV thread.....

If somebody sees it, will they let me know :eyecrazy

Kosty
03-26-2012, 11:18 AM
Still trying to figure out what happened to the AppleTV thread.....

If somebody sees it, will they let me know :eyecrazy

Sorry about that. :what:

We fellas got talking about Disney and then combos and the the strategy of the POTC 4 release and it kinda drifted along from there.:gamer

:offtopic


Maybe I should transfer the POTC 4 posts to the OD thread if anyone wants to continue the discussion there.

Kosty
03-26-2012, 11:24 AM
Sorry about that. :what:

We fellas got talking about Disney and then combos and the the strategy of the POTC 4 release and it kinda drifted along from there.:gamer

:offtopic


Maybe I should transfer the POTC 4 posts to the OD thread if anyone wants to continue the discussion there.

Done. Posts now in OD thread.

ack_bak
03-26-2012, 11:36 AM
Done. Posts now in OD thread.

Thank you sir.

Kosty
03-26-2012, 02:51 PM
Thank you sir.

No problem. The thread drift was indeed pronounced.

Thanks for pointing it out.:thumbsup: