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What will 'Star Wars 3D - Phantom Menace' gross next weekend?

PSound
01-30-2012, 09:56 PM
I saw this poll on another site, but thought it might be interesting here as it has implications on Home Video (including the relative strength of Blu-ray and the strong BO so far in 2012).

So what do you think?

HD Goofnut
01-30-2012, 10:36 PM
21-29. Good, but not great.

leevitalone
01-30-2012, 11:33 PM
I can't vote but will tell you, they will not be getting my money for a movie released a long time ago, and I already saw it, bought it, and that's plenty. No, I will not do it 3 times. sorry not meant to be a buzzkill.
good effect, great effects! the best special effect in all 6 movies?
Getting more money from the same thing repeatedly!
And making people think it was all well worth it!

PSound
01-30-2012, 11:55 PM
I am thinking low 20's.

There is enough of a draw just being Star Wars. I know I am planning to take my 10 year old daughter, who just finished seeing Ep IV, V and VI in the last month.

Cygnus
01-31-2012, 12:42 AM
Hopefully $0. Tired of them re-re-re-releasing the same sh!t...

cakefoo
01-31-2012, 01:40 AM
The relevance to Blu-ray sales is a little hazy in this case. The main draw of this release will be the 3D, as can be said of all the 3D rereleases, but unlike Titanic, for instance, the 2D Blu-ray of Phantom Menace is available already in the Episode I-III and I-VI boxsets, which a lot of Star Wars fans have.

The Blu-ray could sell 500,000 or it could sell 5,000. I really have no idea. I can tell you if it were a new release and it made $60M at the box office, it would be guaranteed to sell several hundred thousand Blu-ray units.

Lee Stewart
01-31-2012, 01:15 PM
AFAIK, there is only going to be a 3D release of Phantom. Lion King did $30M it's 3D re-release opening weekend. My guess is this movie will do as good or better.

But we don't know how many screens it will be playing on yet. That will be the deciding factor.

1stSilverado
01-31-2012, 01:26 PM
I voted 21-29 just because it is "The Phantom Menace". If this was "A New Hope", much higher expectations.

BrianO
01-31-2012, 01:33 PM
Hopefully $0. Tired of them re-re-re-releasing the same sh!t...

+1

You took the words out of my mouth.

TowerGrove
01-31-2012, 03:56 PM
AFAIK, there is only going to be a 3D release of Phantom. Lion King did $30M it's 3D re-release opening weekend. My guess is this movie will do as good or better.

But we don't know how many screens it will be playing on yet. That will be the deciding factor.

Lee have you heard there is only going to be one SW film released in 3D or just speculation? I'm asking because a friend that works for Lucasfilm was telling me the other day that they are well into the rest of the saga as far as 3D conversion goes. Wouldn't make since to just release Phantom after all the work.

Kosty
01-31-2012, 04:06 PM
My understanding is that the entire saga is being worked on and that was the buzz at CES when it was discussed.

The box office for this title is going to be strongly dependent on the number of screens and revival titles do not usually have long runs but The Lion King 3D is showing that some titles in 3D may be above expectations

Kosty
01-31-2012, 04:07 PM
There is also the 3D premium to consider.

Lee Stewart
01-31-2012, 06:54 PM
Lee have you heard there is only going to be one SW film released in 3D or just speculation? I'm asking because a friend that works for Lucasfilm was telling me the other day that they are well into the rest of the saga as far as 3D conversion goes. Wouldn't make since to just release Phantom after all the work.

What I was saying is that there will be no 2D showings of Phantom - 3D only.

They will gauge the success of this movie to determine if they will release the next one (#2) and so on.

TowerGrove
01-31-2012, 08:19 PM
What I was saying is that there will be no 2D showings of Phantom - 3D only.

They will gauge the success of this movie to determine if they will release the next one (#2) and so on.

Heres hoping they do. If done correctly they will be marvelous!

bruceames
01-31-2012, 08:57 PM
AFAIK, there is only going to be a 3D release of Phantom. Lion King did $30M it's 3D re-release opening weekend. My guess is this movie will do as good or better.

But we don't know how many screens it will be playing on yet. That will be the deciding factor.

I think it should do as well as Lion King also. It's Star Wars.

dangerdoc
01-31-2012, 09:03 PM
It's Star Wars.

Kinda sorta.

PSound
01-31-2012, 09:05 PM
Kinda sorta.

Hehe...

Kosty
01-31-2012, 09:17 PM
Kinda sorta.

LOL:lol::lol:

Kosty
01-31-2012, 09:21 PM
What did the 3D re release of The Lion King and other 3D conversions do in the recent re release box office performances?

HD Goofnut
01-31-2012, 09:36 PM
What did the 3D re release of The Lion King and other 3D conversions do in the recent re release box office performances?

Here's the problem with that. Simba is loveable while Jar Jar is not.

bruceames
01-31-2012, 09:58 PM
Whether you want to call it Star Wars or not, the special effects are better on the prequels and it's a much better 3D candidate than Lion King, IMO.

Lee Stewart
02-01-2012, 01:38 AM
Whether you want to call it Star Wars or not, the special effects are better on the prequels and it's a much better 3D candidate than Lion King, IMO.

Can you say . . . POD RACE in 3D. :yippee:

Kosty
02-01-2012, 04:19 AM
This is one of the few theatrical releases I will venture out to see in a cinema as opposed to waiting to see it in my home theater.

First because its not available on 3D yet for the home but also because its a Star Wars release that's once again being released in the theaters at it will have those SFX done right for 3D upgrade.

As a science fiction movie fan I'm curious to see what it looks like on the big screen.

I can always watch it again in my home theater but seeing it in a cinema in digital 3D is an interesting concept.

HD Goofnut
02-01-2012, 08:12 AM
Can you say . . . POD RACE in 3D. :yippee:

Considering it's a 2D to 3D conversion I wouldn't hold my breath.

Lee Stewart
02-01-2012, 09:23 AM
Considering it's a 2D to 3D conversion I wouldn't hold my breath.

Considering that Lucas is spending considerably more then your normal 2D to 3D conversion and has been evaluating conversion software for over 5 years I will bet the result will be much better then you think.

Those that have seen the converted TITANIC clips which also uses a high end conversion say they are fantastic.

It's one thing for a studio to spend $5 million and 8 weeks doing a 2D to 3D converion . . . and quite another when spending $15 million and a whole year to make the conversion.

GizmoDVD
02-01-2012, 09:49 AM
I thought the OT was overrated. I actually enjoyed the new prequels...

HD Goofnut
02-01-2012, 10:28 AM
I thought the OT was overrated. I actually enjoyed the new prequels...

So that's what's wrong with you.:p I always wondered.

cakefoo
02-02-2012, 03:48 AM
Considering that Lucas is spending considerably more then your normal 2D to 3D conversion and has been evaluating conversion software for over 5 years I will bet the result will be much better then you think.Lucas being involved in something is not a plus.

Those that have seen the converted TITANIC clips which also uses a high end conversion say they are fantastic.
The same can not be said of Phantom Menace. In the Titanic trailer the 3D actually played into the story and warmly envelopes you. In the PM trailer the 3D seemed a tad undercooked and sterile.

fake edit: just watched the Phantom Menace trailer on Youtube in 3D and I was way too kind when I called it a tad undercooked. I count no more than 2 layers being utilized at any given time. Sometimes a character is right in your face but they look flat and have maybe a couple millimeters of parallax from the background. Other times the characters look round but distorted. Sometimes there would be what seemed like a 2D image with a single 3D object coming out of the screen.

It's got all the same problems as a rushed 2011 conversion, which is only a step up from Clash of the Titans.

Titanic on the other hand looks very realistic and natural and undistorted. Like they went and modeled everything geometrically 100% correctly, rather than just dabbing a blob here and blob there like in Phantom Menace.

PSound
02-11-2012, 12:56 AM
Star Wars 3D: Phantom Menace (LucasFilm/Fox) NEW [2,655 Theaters]
Estimated Friday $9M, Estimated Weekend $23M

http://www.deadline.com/2012/02/strong-midnights-star-wars-3d-phantom-menace-1-1m-the-vow-700k-safe-house-530k/

Malanthius
02-11-2012, 01:18 PM
Star Wars 3D: Phantom Menace (LucasFilm/Fox) NEW [2,655 Theaters]
Estimated Friday $9M, Estimated Weekend $23M

http://www.deadline.com/2012/02/strong-midnights-star-wars-3d-phantom-menace-1-1m-the-vow-700k-safe-house-530k/

Wow. That's dissapointing. I admit I'm a little biased when it comes to Star Wars as I'm a pretty big fan. That's why I probably voted too high. :(

Lee Stewart
02-11-2012, 04:53 PM
Twentieth Century Fox’s 3D re-release of George Lucas’ Star Wars: Episode 1 — The Phantom Menace, grossed $8.6 million on Friday for a $23 million to 23.5 million weekend. It will compete to some degree with Warner Bros./New Line’s Journey 2: The Mysterious Island for family audiences on Saturday and Sunday.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/the-vow-safe-house-star-wars-journey-2-box-office-289516

TowerGrove
02-11-2012, 05:23 PM
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/the-vow-safe-house-star-wars-journey-2-box-office-289516

Just got back from the showing and was very pleased with the 3D conversion. It seems to be doing well at the BO this weekend. They theater was half full this morning when I went 10:00a showing (We have sub zero temps this morning which I believe are keeping many people in).
Lots of families bringing their younger childern which was good to see.

Kosty
02-11-2012, 06:21 PM
Just came back myself and I did not have a chance to see the show this evening as all of my local showings were actually sold out until 1000 pm.

Lots of families were in line to be admitted that already had tickets.

I'm curious to see it again now as the Star Wars I showings were doing pretty good business in my local area.

Lee Stewart
02-12-2012, 10:06 PM
$23 million for the weekend

PSound
02-12-2012, 10:38 PM
$23 million for the weekend

Pretty much what I expected.

Kosty
02-13-2012, 08:49 AM
Saw the 3D version of Episode I yesterday afternoon.

A tad disappointing but OK I guess.

The first afternoon showing was sold out but I got into a 2:00 pm one that seemed mostly to be used with teenagers. Only a couple times was it interrupted by the bright lights of people texting or talking on their cell phones.

It was in a newly remodeled theater with new digital projector and sound system but I was quite underwhelmed.

The 3D effect was there but it was quite subtle for the most part to me and at least it was not distracting but the loss of brightness from the 3D glasses made the overall picture less bright and punchy and overall less impactful than just watching the movie of a reasonably calibrated large HDTV display or home theater on Blu-ray Disc or an OAR cable channel version.

It was a treat to see it on the big screen but the Blu-ray version in 2D in my home theater was superior and I did not get much out of the 3D effects.

Maybe it was just how they played it it my new theater and they cheated on the brightness of the lamp or the exit lights affected the picture and contrast but even the sound was not high enough to my taste and the special effects lacked the impact of a good home theater.

But it was a treat to see it again in a theater full of people and get the crowd reaction again. So I guess it was worth the afternoon ticket pricing.

HD Goofnut
02-13-2012, 09:53 AM
Saw the 3D version of Episode I yesterday afternoon.

A tad disappointing but OK I guess.

The first afternoon showing was sold out but I got into a 2:00 pm one that seemed mostly to be used with teenagers. Only a couple times was it interrupted by the bright lights of people texting or talking on their cell phones.

It was in a newly remodeled theater with new digital projector and sound system but I was quite underwhelmed.

The 3D effect was there but it was quite subtle for the most part to me and at least it was not distracting but the loss of brightness from the 3D glasses made the overall picture less bright and punchy and overall less impactful than just watching the movie of a reasonably calibrated large HDTV display or home theater on Blu-ray Disc or an OAR cable channel version.

It was a treat to see it on the big screen but the Blu-ray version in 2D in my home theater was superior and I did not get much out of the 3D effects.

Maybe it was just how they played it it my new theater and they cheated on the brightness of the lamp or the exit lights affected the picture and contrast but even the sound was not high enough to my taste and the special effects lacked the impact of a good home theater.

But it was a treat to see it again in a theater full of people and get the crowd reaction again. So I guess it was worth the afternoon ticket pricing.

+1 and this is the experience for every 2D to 3D conversion to date. If a film not shot in 3D it should not be shown in 3D.

Kosty
02-13-2012, 10:10 AM
+1 and this is the experience for every 2D to 3D conversion to date. If a film not shot in 3D it should not be shown in 3D.

Well sometimes with a newer movie that was converted before release I see the pop up book type effect or some other artifacts that seem to be a bit disorientating.

For this release it wasn't distracting its just that that 3D effect benefit was less than the loss of brightness and color you get by using the Real 3D sunglasses. ( I even tried the theater provided glasses first but ended up using a better optical quality set of Real 3D glasses I got provided at a trade event a while back).

You can easily tell how much brightness you loss when you peak outside the glasses and see how much brighter the screen is.

I like newer movies that were now new releases on 3D that were shot that way or converted by design but it seems to me that older releases may be more problematic.

Episode I was also shot on film while Episode II and Episode III were all digital so that probably will make a difference.

I'm going to watch Episode I soon on my home theater soon on Blu-ray to compare the experience.

HD Goofnut
02-13-2012, 11:26 AM
Well sometimes with a newer movie that was converted before release I see the pop up book type effect or some other artifacts that seem to be a bit disorientating.

For this release it wasn't distracting its just that that 3D effect benefit was less than the loss of brightness and color you get by using the Real 3D sunglasses. ( I even tried the theater provided glasses first but ended up using a better optical quality set of Real 3D glasses I got provided at a trade event a while back).

You can easily tell how much brightness you loss when you peak outside the glasses and see how much brighter the screen is.

I like newer movies that were now new releases on 3D that were shot that way or converted by design but it seems to me that older releases may be more problematic.

Episode I was also shot on film while Episode II and Episode III were all digital so that probably will make a difference.

I'm going to watch Episode I soon on my home theater soon on Blu-ray to compare the experience.

Other than some select scenes that have moderate DNR Episode I's PQ is definitely above average. The AQ is nearly perfect though.

Kosty
02-13-2012, 02:02 PM
Other than some select scenes that have moderate DNR Episode I's PQ is definitely above average. The AQ is nearly perfect though.

Thanks for the feedback.

I actually lent out my copy of Star Wars Blu-ray after only watching some scenes for demo reasons and I did not watch all of movies in sequence again as I intended to in December and I was out of town on business for most of January.

So I never saw in the entirety all of Episode I, only really the space battle scenes, the swordfight light saber fight/death scene and all the pod race was I really looked at on Blu-ray.

I'll look at it soon now to compare it with the theatrical 3D experience with watching the whole movie.

jkkyler
02-14-2012, 06:03 AM
So the big question is - Is $23 million good, mediocre, or poor BO take? From either your vantage point or from the studio.

1stSilverado
02-14-2012, 11:07 AM
So the big question is - Is $23 million good, mediocre, or poor BO take? From either your vantage point or from the studio.

This is the "Phantom Menace" so the box office at 23 million is a good base to start from.
"Attack of the clones" will fair a bit worse, but "Revenge of the Sith" will be around Phantom numbers.
The original trilogy will bring in much better numbers, but that is a no brainer.

Lee Stewart
02-14-2012, 11:16 AM
So the big question is - Is $23 million good, mediocre, or poor BO take? From either your vantage point or from the studio.

It is what was forecasted. IMO - OK for what is probably the weakest of the 6 SWs movies. If it wasn't for the Pod Race, the movie would have totally sucked.