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Blu-ray & the Top 20 title market share depreciation after week 1

bruceames
12-29-2011, 01:00 PM
Below is a list of all the Blu-ray titles, starting 9/19/10, which were in the OD top 20 at least 3 weeks. Notice the distinct drop off in market share after week 1, in nearly every title. 113 titles are included.

date=debut date (week ending)
#weeks = number of weeks that title was in the OD top 20.
Week1= Blu-ray market share of title in week 1
Remaining= Blu-ray average market share of title in remaining weeks (that were in the top 20)




date #weeks Week1 Remaining Title
9/19 6 10.0% 10.0% Letters to Juliet
9/19 6 43.0% 35.8% Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time
9/26 8 42.0% 31.1% Robin Hood
9/26 7 26.0% 15.2% Tinker Bell and the Great Fairy Rescue
10/3 4 28.0% 24.7% Get Him to the Greek
10/3 11 52.0% 32.9% Iron Man 2
10/10 4 37.0% 25.3% A Nightmare on Elm Street
10/10 7 27.0% 16.9% The Karate Kid
10/17 15 30.5% 22.6% How to Train Your Dragon
10/17 3 33.6% 27.2% Jonah Hex
10/24 4 42.4% 34.3% Predators
10/31 4 17.5% 10.8% Sex and the City 2
11/7 8 35.2% 25.8% The Pacific
11/7 20 33.1% 23.0% Toy Story 3
11/14 6 23.5% 21.1% Grown Ups
11/14 4 6.0% 4.4% Ramona and Beezus
11/21 5 37.0% 33.3% A Christmas Carol
11/21 3 36.0% 29.2% The Last Airbender
11/28 6 7.6% 9.9% Eat Pray Love
11/28 12 32.5% 45.1% The Expendables
12/5 3 29.0% 37.1% Knight and Day
12/5 3 42.8% 50.0% The Sorcerer's Apprentice
12/5 14 22.7% 15.2% The Twilight Saga: Eclipse
12/12 20 64.9% 46.4% Inception
12/12 7 29.3% 15.4% Shrek Forever After
12/19 14 29.0% 27.6% Despicable Me
12/19 3 34.0% 25.5% Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'hoole
12/19 7 42.0% 44.4% The A-Team
12/19 7 36.0% 34.7% The Other Guys
12/19 10 46.0% 42.1% The Town
12/26 5 17.0% 19.9% Easy A
12/26 3 24.0% 17.6% Family Guy: It's a Trap!
12/26 9 39.0% 34.0% Salt
12/26 5 31.0% 25.3% Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
1/2 5 44.2% 44.2% Resident Evil: Afterlife
1/9 3 24.8% 19.1% Dinner for Schmucks
1/9 4 40.7% 33.7% Machete
1/16 4 22.7% 16.8% Alpha and Omega
1/16 7 44.9% 34.8% The Social Network
1/23 4 31.9% 24.6% Takers
1/30 3 22.4% 14.1% Open Season 3
1/30 13 45.5% 24.1% Red
1/30 10 29.7% 25.7% Secretariat
2/6 5 16.2% 10.3% Beverly Hills Chihuahua 2
2/13 5 14.7% 18.3% Life as We Know It
2/20 7 35.7% 28.1% Unstoppable
2/27 7 33.3% 31.7% Due Date
2/27 10 35.8% 24.3% Megamind
3/6 3 33.0% 28.4% 127 Hours
3/6 6 26.7% 24.1% Burlesque
3/6 5 32.4% 30.4% Faster
3/6 4 18.7% 17.2% Love & Other Drugs
3/13 3 39.9% 34.2% Jackass 3
3/13 3 45.4% 38.6% The Walking Dead: The Complete First Season
3/20 5 39.6% 44.4% The Fighter
3/27 4 34.4% 28.4% The Tourist
3/27 4 27.9% 22.9% Yogi Bear
4/3 3 43.2% 27.8% Black Swan
4/3 19 40.8% 25.0% Tangled
4/10 5 23.7% 18.4% Little Fockers
4/10 7 44.2% 32.5% The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader
4/10 10 68.2% 53.9% Tron: Legacy
4/17 8 18.6% 13.6% Country Strong
4/17 27 45.8% 36.3% Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 1
4/24 10 26.3% 16.8% The King's Speech
5/8 6 49.5% 39.2% The Green Hornet
5/15 7 18.8% 9.9% Justin Bieber: Never Say Never
5/15 4 26.7% 23.0% No Strings Attached
5/22 3 47.4% 36.4% The Mechanic
5/29 7 36.2% 26.1% Gnomeo & Juliet
5/29 3 42.9% 31.4% I Am Number Four
6/5 4 25.3% 18.6% True Blood: The Complete Third Season
6/12 7 35.5% 27.4% Just Go With It
6/12 7 52.6% 40.1% True Grit
6/19 5 58.6% 44.6% Battle: Los Angeles
6/19 5 40.5% 30.1% Hall Pass
6/19 4 36.2% 26.4% Red Riding Hood
6/26 6 24.4% 13.2% Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules
6/26 4 43.4% 30.5% The Adjustment Bureau
6/26 4 41.0% 31.7% Unknown
7/3 4 61.4% 46.6% Sucker Punch
7/17 4 35.6% 23.2% Arthur
7/17 3 37.2% 29.9% Insidious
7/17 7 45.7% 30.3% Rango
7/17 5 36.6% 31.1% The Lincoln Lawyer
7/24 7 40.4% 32.9% Limitless
7/31 6 41.1% 28.7% Source Code
8/7 13 33.4% 29.0% Rio
8/7 5 21.3% 18.7% Soul Surfer
8/21 4 16.6% 12.0% Dexter: The Fifth Season
8/21 4 52.4% 43.6% Priest
8/21 4 20.5% 17.1% Something Borrowed
9/4 3 9.3% 7.1% Madea's Big Happy Family
9/4 3 17.0% 18.2% Sons of Anarchy: Season Three
9/11 4 44.2% 34.7% Hanna
9/11 9 59.5% 51.8% X-Men: First Class
9/18 4 13.0% 7.6% The Big Bang Theory: Season 4
9/18 8 61.0% 53.4% Thor
9/25 13 30.3% 23.3% Bridesmaids
9/25 5 60.4% 39.0% Dumbo: 70th Anniversary Edition
9/25 6 20.1% 16.5% Spooky Buddies
10/2 9 64.4% 43.7% Transformers: Dark of the Moon
10/9 8 56.7% 45.9% Fast Five
10/16 5 61.2% 50.5% Green Lantern
10/16 5 41.6% 32.2% Horrible Bosses
10/16 3 27.5% 21.7% Zookeeper
10/30 6 67.8% 53.7% Captain America: The First Avenger
11/6 8 47.0% 27.3% Cars 2
11/13 7 48.9% 38.2% Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2
11/27 5 58.7% 40.5% Super 8
12/4 3 42.0% 26.7% The Smurfs
12/11 3 44.0% 29.7% The Hangover Part II
12/11 3 24.0% 17.6% The Help

bombsnizzle
12-29-2011, 01:15 PM
What counts as a "distinct drop off"?

Several have a 2% difference. Is that distinct? Is 4%?

Some increased also.

Furthermore, most sales of a title happen in the first week or two. Hundreds of thousands or millions of copies are sold then. That is when the real $$ is made.

Is it really that important that 15 weeks later there is a 10% drop off, when you are talking about a maybe 1/10 of the copies sold compared to the early weeks? It is more important to sell more in the beginning than at the end.

chipvideo
12-29-2011, 01:31 PM
What it shows is that bluray is more front end loaded and has very bad legs vs dvd. Its a sign of weakness for blu-ray. We are getting towards saturation and hitting a wall.

bombsnizzle
12-29-2011, 01:41 PM
What it shows is that bluray is more front end loaded and has very bad legs vs dvd. More front end loaded is a good thing because the majority of sales occur in the front end. The studios want to sell the more expensive version over the less expensive version, particularly in the beginning when most sales occur.

Its a sign of weakness for blu-ray. We are getting towards saturation and hitting a wall.

Wouldn't you need to do this same type of analysis for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 and then compare them to come to that conclusion? To see if 2011 releases for some reason have a higher drop off over time than previous years?

How can you make that determination without the historical %'s?

bombsnizzle
12-29-2011, 01:49 PM
For instance, do you think the studios would rather have a 40% bluray share every week evenly from day 1 to day n, or to have had a 60% share in the first week or two and then 30% thereafter?

One scenario makes more money than the other one does, because most sales happen in the first few weeks.

It isn't a "it's not how you start, but how you finish" type of race. In fact, it's the opposite. It's not how you finish but how you start. It is more important to have a strong opening than a strong finish. A 10% drop off in weeks 4-20 isn't as important as a +10% showing in the weeks 1-3. That +10% from weeks 1-3 is a lot more $$ made than the $$ lost in the -10% in weeks 4-20.

GizmoDVD
12-29-2011, 03:14 PM
Prices of BDs go down after the first week of sales? They usually jump $5-8.

Obviously some will go down at week 3-4 on.

PSound
12-29-2011, 03:34 PM
I think that very nicely illustrates the issues that BD faces.

Namely that it has a more narrow market than movie collectors at large. Those most interested in Blu-ray are those looking to collect during release week. Of course, that is a smaller market than the general movie buying populace.

That would certainly explain the dramatic drop in BD growth this year, even in light of larger player penetration. The market looking to buy BD may already be saturated unless the studios further sacrifice DVD sales to encourage BD cannibalizing DVD.

The studios are definitely moving in that direction when they price BD combos for less than the DVD only SKU.

bruceames
12-29-2011, 04:18 PM
Here is the same list, sorted (best to worst) in the amount of change in market share after week 1.

Abschange= absolute percentage change. Week 1 share is simply subtracted from the (average of) week2+ share.

%Change= percentage change. The percentage of market share lost/gained, as a percentage of the week 1 share. For example, if week 1 was 50%, and week2+ is 40% the %change is -20%. This is more accurate for measuring across titles with widely varying share percentages.

The average Abschange for all titles is -7.5% and the %Change is -20.1%.

11 titles improved or were unchanged, 36 titles had a %Change from -0.1% to -20%, and 65 titles had a %Change of more than -20%.



date #weeks Week1 Remaining Abschange %Change Title
11/28 12 32.5% 45.1% 12.6% 38.9% The Expendables
11/28 6 7.6% 9.9% 2.3% 30.9% Eat Pray Love
12/5 3 29.0% 37.1% 8.0% 27.7% Knight and Day
2/13 5 14.7% 18.3% 3.7% 25.0% Life as We Know It
12/26 5 17.0% 19.9% 2.9% 17.0% Easy A
12/5 3 42.8% 50.0% 7.2% 16.9% The Sorcerer's Apprentice
3/20 5 39.6% 44.4% 4.7% 11.9% The Fighter
9/4 3 17.0% 18.2% 1.2% 6.8% Sons of Anarchy: Season Three
12/19 7 42.0% 44.4% 2.4% 5.6% The A-Team
9/19 6 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.1% Letters to Juliet
1/2 5 44.2% 44.2% 0.0% 0.0% Resident Evil: Afterlife
12/19 7 36.0% 34.7% -1.3% -3.6% The Other Guys
2/27 7 33.3% 31.7% -1.6% -4.8% Due Date
12/19 14 29.0% 27.6% -1.4% -4.9% Despicable Me
3/6 5 32.4% 30.4% -2.0% -6.2% Faster
3/6 4 18.7% 17.2% -1.5% -7.9% Love & Other Drugs
12/19 10 46.0% 42.1% -3.9% -8.4% The Town
3/6 6 26.7% 24.1% -2.5% -9.4% Burlesque
11/21 5 37.0% 33.3% -3.7% -9.9% A Christmas Carol
11/14 6 23.5% 21.1% -2.4% -10.1% Grown Ups
10/3 4 28.0% 24.7% -3.3% -11.8% Get Him to the Greek
8/7 5 21.3% 18.7% -2.5% -11.9% Soul Surfer
9/18 8 61.0% 53.4% -7.6% -12.5% Thor
12/26 9 39.0% 34.0% -5.0% -12.9% Salt
9/11 9 59.5% 51.8% -7.8% -13.0% X-Men: First Class
8/7 13 33.4% 29.0% -4.4% -13.2% Rio
1/30 10 29.7% 25.7% -3.9% -13.3% Secretariat
5/15 4 26.7% 23.0% -3.6% -13.7% No Strings Attached
3/6 3 33.0% 28.4% -4.6% -13.8% 127 Hours
3/13 3 39.9% 34.2% -5.8% -14.4% Jackass 3
7/17 5 36.6% 31.1% -5.5% -14.9% The Lincoln Lawyer
3/13 3 45.4% 38.6% -6.8% -15.0% The Walking Dead: The Complete First Season
8/21 4 20.5% 17.1% -3.4% -16.6% Something Borrowed
8/21 4 52.4% 43.6% -8.7% -16.7% Priest
9/19 6 43.0% 35.8% -7.2% -16.8% Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time
1/9 4 40.7% 33.7% -7.0% -17.3% Machete
3/27 4 34.4% 28.4% -6.0% -17.4% The Tourist
10/16 5 61.2% 50.5% -10.7% -17.5% Green Lantern
3/27 4 27.9% 22.9% -5.0% -18.0% Yogi Bear
9/25 6 20.1% 16.5% -3.6% -18.1% Spooky Buddies
12/26 5 31.0% 25.3% -5.7% -18.4% Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
7/24 7 40.4% 32.9% -7.5% -18.6% Limitless
11/21 3 36.0% 29.2% -6.8% -18.8% The Last Airbender
10/17 3 33.6% 27.2% -6.4% -19.0% Jonah Hex
10/9 8 56.7% 45.9% -10.8% -19.0% Fast Five
10/24 4 42.4% 34.3% -8.1% -19.1% Predators
7/17 3 37.2% 29.9% -7.3% -19.7% Insidious
4/17 27 45.8% 36.3% -9.4% -20.6% Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 1
5/8 6 49.5% 39.2% -10.3% -20.8% The Green Hornet
10/30 6 67.8% 53.7% -14.1% -20.8% Captain America: The First Avenger
10/16 3 27.5% 21.7% -5.8% -21.0% Zookeeper
4/10 10 68.2% 53.9% -14.3% -21.0% Tron: Legacy
2/20 7 35.7% 28.1% -7.6% -21.3% Unstoppable
9/11 4 44.2% 34.7% -9.5% -21.5% Hanna
11/13 7 48.9% 38.2% -10.7% -21.9% Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2
4/10 5 23.7% 18.4% -5.3% -22.2% Little Fockers
10/16 5 41.6% 32.2% -9.4% -22.6% Horrible Bosses
1/16 7 44.9% 34.8% -10.2% -22.7% The Social Network
6/26 4 41.0% 31.7% -9.3% -22.7% Unknown
1/23 4 31.9% 24.6% -7.3% -22.8% Takers
1/9 3 24.8% 19.1% -5.7% -22.9% Dinner for Schmucks
6/12 7 35.5% 27.4% -8.2% -23.0% Just Go With It
9/4 3 9.3% 7.1% -2.2% -23.2% Madea's Big Happy Family
9/25 13 30.3% 23.3% -7.0% -23.2% Bridesmaids
5/22 3 47.4% 36.4% -11.1% -23.4% The Mechanic
6/12 7 52.6% 40.1% -12.4% -23.6% True Grit
6/19 5 58.6% 44.6% -14.0% -23.9% Battle: Los Angeles
7/3 4 61.4% 46.6% -14.9% -24.2% Sucker Punch
12/19 3 34.0% 25.5% -8.5% -24.9% Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'hoole
6/19 5 40.5% 30.1% -10.4% -25.6% Hall Pass
9/26 8 42.0% 31.1% -10.9% -25.9% Robin Hood
10/17 15 30.5% 22.6% -8.0% -26.1% How to Train Your Dragon
1/16 4 22.7% 16.8% -5.9% -26.1% Alpha and Omega
6/5 4 25.3% 18.6% -6.7% -26.4% True Blood: The Complete Third Season
4/10 7 44.2% 32.5% -11.7% -26.5% The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader
12/26 3 24.0% 17.6% -6.4% -26.5% Family Guy: It's a Trap!
12/11 3 24.0% 17.6% -6.4% -26.5% The Help
11/14 4 6.0% 4.4% -1.6% -26.6% Ramona and Beezus
4/17 8 18.6% 13.6% -4.9% -26.6% Country Strong
11/7 8 35.2% 25.8% -9.4% -26.7% The Pacific
5/29 3 42.9% 31.4% -11.4% -26.7% I Am Number Four
6/19 4 36.2% 26.4% -9.8% -27.1% Red Riding Hood
8/21 4 16.6% 12.0% -4.6% -27.8% Dexter: The Fifth Season
5/29 7 36.2% 26.1% -10.1% -27.8% Gnomeo & Juliet
12/12 20 64.9% 46.4% -18.5% -28.5% Inception
6/26 4 43.4% 30.5% -12.9% -29.8% The Adjustment Bureau
7/31 6 41.1% 28.7% -12.4% -30.2% Source Code
11/7 20 33.1% 23.0% -10.1% -30.5% Toy Story 3
11/27 5 58.7% 40.5% -18.1% -30.9% Super 8
10/10 4 37.0% 25.3% -11.7% -31.7% A Nightmare on Elm Street
2/27 10 35.8% 24.3% -11.5% -32.0% Megamind
10/2 9 64.4% 43.7% -20.7% -32.2% Transformers: Dark of the Moon
12/11 3 44.0% 29.7% -14.3% -32.6% The Hangover Part II
12/5 14 22.7% 15.2% -7.4% -32.8% The Twilight Saga: Eclipse
7/17 7 45.7% 30.3% -15.4% -33.6% Rango
7/17 4 35.6% 23.2% -12.4% -34.9% Arthur
9/25 5 60.4% 39.0% -21.3% -35.3% Dumbo: 70th Anniversary Edition
4/3 3 43.2% 27.8% -15.5% -35.8% Black Swan
4/24 10 26.3% 16.8% -9.5% -36.0% The King's Speech
12/4 3 42.0% 26.7% -15.3% -36.4% The Smurfs
10/3 11 52.0% 32.9% -19.1% -36.7% Iron Man 2
2/6 5 16.2% 10.3% -6.0% -36.7% Beverly Hills Chihuahua 2
1/30 3 22.4% 14.1% -8.3% -37.0% Open Season 3
10/10 7 27.0% 16.9% -10.1% -37.4% The Karate Kid
10/31 4 17.5% 10.8% -6.7% -38.4% Sex and the City 2
4/3 19 40.8% 25.0% -15.7% -38.6% Tangled
9/26 7 26.0% 15.2% -10.8% -41.4% Tinker Bell and the Great Fairy Rescue
9/18 4 13.0% 7.6% -5.4% -41.7% The Big Bang Theory: Season 4
11/6 8 47.0% 27.3% -19.7% -42.0% Cars 2
6/26 6 24.4% 13.2% -11.2% -46.0% Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules
1/30 13 45.5% 24.1% -21.4% -47.0% Red
5/15 7 18.8% 9.9% -8.8% -47.0% Justin Bieber: Never Say Never
12/12 7 29.3% 15.4% -13.9% -47.6% Shrek Forever After

bruceames
12-29-2011, 04:28 PM
What counts as a "distinct drop off"?

Several have a 2% difference. Is that distinct? Is 4%?

Some increased also.

Furthermore, most sales of a title happen in the first week or two. Hundreds of thousands or millions of copies are sold then. That is when the real $$ is made.

Is it really that important that 15 weeks later there is a 10% drop off, when you are talking about a maybe 1/10 of the copies sold compared to the early weeks? It is more important to sell more in the beginning than at the end.

I would say distinct in this case being a %change of more than 20% or so (that is, losing more than 20% of their share). For example 50%-->40%, 40%-->32%, 20%-->16%, etc.

It's true that week 1 has easily the greatest amount of sales, so luckily for Blu-ray, their biggest share is also in that same week. On average, week 1 has 2-3 times the sales that week 2 does. The drop off is less drastic after that though, and depending on the legs a title has, weeks2+ could have more sales. I'll have to check that out when I get time.

bruceames
12-29-2011, 04:30 PM
Wouldn't you need to do this same type of analysis for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 and then compare them to come to that conclusion? To see if 2011 releases for some reason have a higher drop off over time than previous years?

How can you make that determination without the historical %'s?

That's a good point. The data I had stored in my spreadsheet for the Nielsen top 20, only goes back to September of last year. I too would like to see how the depreciation rate changes over time, if at all. I'll put that on my to do list.

Dave J
12-29-2011, 06:23 PM
That's a good point. The data I had stored in my spreadsheet for the Nielsen top 20, only goes back to September of last year. I too would like to see how the depreciation rate changes over time, if at all. I'll put that on my to do list.

Grubert tracked that data sorted by genre if I recall correctly during either 2008 or 2009. At the time the BD percentage would generally increase after the first week of release but not by a lot.

His data may be somewhere in this thread (http:///blu-ray-technology-news/23417-home-media-research-weekly-sales-figures-other-software-sales-data.html).

bruceames
12-30-2011, 09:25 AM
Grubert tracked that data sorted by genre if I recall correctly during either 2008 or 2009. At the time the BD percentage would generally increase after the first week of release but not by a lot.

His data may be somewhere in this thread (http:///blu-ray-technology-news/23417-home-media-research-weekly-sales-figures-other-software-sales-data.html).

Thanks Dave, I'll check it out.

Looks like HMM started tracking Blu-ray market share for the OD top 20 for the WE 1/18/09. It would have been nice to go back to Q4 2008 in order to include The Dark Knight and the other top title of Q4, but oh well.

Kosty
12-30-2011, 01:50 PM
I'll look also to see what I have handy for the historical trending there as well.

I know I have the The Dark Knight data from 4Q 2008 and Iron Man data as well as Avatar for its first months.

Kosty
12-30-2011, 02:12 PM
I also have some tracking that not only used the Top 20 Sellers list but also the BD Title Share chart as well.

Here is some data from the Nielsen Videoscan First Alert Report for 3 major titles The Dark Knight, Iron Man and Avatar from from the date range 10/05/08 through 07/25/10 which IIRC were the largest sales volume Blu-ray titles through that ending date.

In those cases the Blu-ray unit marketshare clearly seemed to generally rise over the long range period of time in the years 2008 2009 and 2010.

Perhaps it different now for any number of reasons. Or perhaps it because the most of those minor titles fall of the top 20 list and bruceames data set loses them by including only those on the top 20 sellers list.

My listing also has included in it when the title showed on on the BD title share chart which gave the Blu-ray unit marketshare of the Top 20 highest Blu-ray titles in Blu-ray unit marketshare that had a concurrent Blu-ray and DVD release as well, so my charts below also included many weeks when the title was not on the Top 20 Sellers list but we did capture the Blu-ray unit market share for any weeks after release from the BD Title Share list.

I have most of the historical data from when we started getting the BD Title Share chart but its not in a tabulated easy to use format and I might not be able to have it given to bruceames before I go off to Las Vegas in the next week for CES 2012. I'll see what I can do.

http://i44.tinypic.com/350nznb.jpg

http://i40.tinypic.com/1zxqkpt.jpg

http://i39.tinypic.com/124al9i.jpg


Week TheDarkKnight Iron Man Avatar


07/25/10 43.00%
07/18/10 43.38%
07/11/10 23.10% 10.00% 43.48%
07/04/10 41.74%
06/27/10 47.41% 22.33% 39.68%
06/20/10 44.66% 45.95%
06/13/10 51.57% 36.73% 39.41%
06/06/10 51.87% 23.90% 39.94%
05/30/10 42.18% 16.00% 40.30%
05/23/10 62.97% 26.86% 38.75%
05/16/10 62.12% 29.48% 39.40%
05/09/10 67.93% 35.53% 39.68%
05/02/10 57.38% 37.66% 41.55%
04/25/10 50.98% 37.69% 48.88%
04/18/10 40.36% 31.78%
04/11/10
04/04/10
03/28/10 32.52%
03/21/10 49.73%
03/14/10
03/07/10 52.65%
02/28/10 60.20%
02/21/10 24.45%
02/14/10
02/07/10
01/31/10
01/24/10
01/17/10
01/10/10 67.30%
01/03/10 55.46%
12/27/09 32.65%
12/20/09
12/13/09 41.78%
12/06/09 50.86%
11/29/09 7.19%
11/22/09
11/15/09 23.20%
11/08/09 41.51%
11/01/09 43.25%
10/25/09 28.92%
10/18/09 39.06%
10/11/09 56.94%
10/04/09 52.71%
09/27/09 56.76%
09/20/09 60.48%
09/13/09 55.38% 26.12%
09/06/09 32.39%
08/30/09
08/23/09
08/16/09
08/09/09
08/02/09
07/26/09
07/19/09
07/12/09
07/05/09
06/28/09
06/21/09 19.18%
06/14/09
06/07/09 39.77%
05/31/09
05/24/09
05/17/09
05/10/09
05/03/09 38.44%
04/26/09
04/19/09 38.24%
04/12/09 34.20% 74.86%
04/05/09 37.53%
03/29/09 37.43% 45.35%
03/22/09 35.54% 46.51%
03/15/09 33.61% 40.76%
03/08/09 21.95% 39.91%
03/01/09 5.00% 54.15%
02/22/09 14.53% 30.11%
02/15/09
02/08/09 25.00%
02/01/09 28.00%
01/25/09 30.48% 67.82%
01/18/09 30.80% 42.39%
01/11/09
01/04/09
12/28/08
12/21/08
12/14/08 12.60%
12/07/08
11/30/08 14.92%
11/23/08
11/16/08
11/09/08 19.52%
11/02/08 19.02%
10/26/08 15.61%
10/19/08 17.18%
10/12/08 15.98%
10/05/08 17.14%

Kosty
12-30-2011, 02:18 PM
Thanks Dave, I'll check it out.

Looks like HMM started tracking Blu-ray market share for the OD top 20 for the WE 1/18/09. It would have been nice to go back to Q4 2008 in order to include The Dark Knight and the other top title of Q4, but oh well.

I have some 2008 data. I may have lost some when my laptop died last year but I will see what I can find. I think I may have posted some charts with Blu-ray unit marketshare numbers in 2008 as well but I may not have them as imported data into my database and spreadsheets.

The Dark Knight data is above. I am not sure where I got it but it is the Nielsen Videoscan first alert data or the final report database information from Nielsen Videoscan in the Nielsen Videoscan subscriber database with the final numbers. The adjustment from first alert to the final weekly numbers is very small and extremely small for Blu-ray titles that tend not to be sold much at non first alert POS census retailers .

Kosty
12-30-2011, 02:29 PM
Bruce can you send me by email or PM or post the entire database file there including all of the weeks that you have and I can perhaps merge it with the BD title share chart data that I have on hand when I can find time to do so?


Below is a list of all the Blu-ray titles, starting 9/19/10, which were in the OD top 20 at least 3 weeks. Notice the distinct drop off in market share after week 1, in nearly every title. 113 titles are included.

date=debut date (week ending)
#weeks = number of weeks that title was in the OD top 20.
Week1= Blu-ray market share of title in week 1
Remaining= Blu-ray average market share of title in remaining weeks (that were in the top 20)




date #weeks Week1 Remaining Title
9/19 6 10.0% 10.0% Letters to Juliet
9/19 6 43.0% 35.8% Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time
9/26 8 42.0% 31.1% Robin Hood
9/26 7 26.0% 15.2% Tinker Bell and the Great Fairy Rescue
10/3 4 28.0% 24.7% Get Him to the Greek
10/3 11 52.0% 32.9% Iron Man 2
10/10 4 37.0% 25.3% A Nightmare on Elm Street
10/10 7 27.0% 16.9% The Karate Kid
10/17 15 30.5% 22.6% How to Train Your Dragon
10/17 3 33.6% 27.2% Jonah Hex
10/24 4 42.4% 34.3% Predators
10/31 4 17.5% 10.8% Sex and the City 2
11/7 8 35.2% 25.8% The Pacific
11/7 20 33.1% 23.0% Toy Story 3
11/14 6 23.5% 21.1% Grown Ups
11/14 4 6.0% 4.4% Ramona and Beezus
11/21 5 37.0% 33.3% A Christmas Carol
11/21 3 36.0% 29.2% The Last Airbender
11/28 6 7.6% 9.9% Eat Pray Love
11/28 12 32.5% 45.1% The Expendables
12/5 3 29.0% 37.1% Knight and Day
12/5 3 42.8% 50.0% The Sorcerer's Apprentice
12/5 14 22.7% 15.2% The Twilight Saga: Eclipse
12/12 20 64.9% 46.4% Inception
12/12 7 29.3% 15.4% Shrek Forever After
12/19 14 29.0% 27.6% Despicable Me
12/19 3 34.0% 25.5% Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'hoole
12/19 7 42.0% 44.4% The A-Team
12/19 7 36.0% 34.7% The Other Guys
12/19 10 46.0% 42.1% The Town
12/26 5 17.0% 19.9% Easy A
12/26 3 24.0% 17.6% Family Guy: It's a Trap!
12/26 9 39.0% 34.0% Salt
12/26 5 31.0% 25.3% Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
1/2 5 44.2% 44.2% Resident Evil: Afterlife
1/9 3 24.8% 19.1% Dinner for Schmucks
1/9 4 40.7% 33.7% Machete
1/16 4 22.7% 16.8% Alpha and Omega
1/16 7 44.9% 34.8% The Social Network
1/23 4 31.9% 24.6% Takers
1/30 3 22.4% 14.1% Open Season 3
1/30 13 45.5% 24.1% Red
1/30 10 29.7% 25.7% Secretariat
2/6 5 16.2% 10.3% Beverly Hills Chihuahua 2
2/13 5 14.7% 18.3% Life as We Know It
2/20 7 35.7% 28.1% Unstoppable
2/27 7 33.3% 31.7% Due Date
2/27 10 35.8% 24.3% Megamind
3/6 3 33.0% 28.4% 127 Hours
3/6 6 26.7% 24.1% Burlesque
3/6 5 32.4% 30.4% Faster
3/6 4 18.7% 17.2% Love & Other Drugs
3/13 3 39.9% 34.2% Jackass 3
3/13 3 45.4% 38.6% The Walking Dead: The Complete First Season
3/20 5 39.6% 44.4% The Fighter
3/27 4 34.4% 28.4% The Tourist
3/27 4 27.9% 22.9% Yogi Bear
4/3 3 43.2% 27.8% Black Swan
4/3 19 40.8% 25.0% Tangled
4/10 5 23.7% 18.4% Little Fockers
4/10 7 44.2% 32.5% The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader
4/10 10 68.2% 53.9% Tron: Legacy
4/17 8 18.6% 13.6% Country Strong
4/17 27 45.8% 36.3% Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
4/24 10 26.3% 16.8% The King's Speech
5/8 6 49.5% 39.2% The Green Hornet
5/15 7 18.8% 9.9% Justin Bieber: Never Say Never
5/15 4 26.7% 23.0% No Strings Attached
5/22 3 47.4% 36.4% The Mechanic
5/29 7 36.2% 26.1% Gnomeo & Juliet
5/29 3 42.9% 31.4% I Am Number Four
6/5 4 25.3% 18.6% True Blood: The Complete Third Season
6/12 7 35.5% 27.4% Just Go With It
6/12 7 52.6% 40.1% True Grit
6/19 5 58.6% 44.6% Battle: Los Angeles
6/19 5 40.5% 30.1% Hall Pass
6/19 4 36.2% 26.4% Red Riding Hood
6/26 6 24.4% 13.2% Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules
6/26 4 43.4% 30.5% The Adjustment Bureau
6/26 4 41.0% 31.7% Unknown
7/3 4 61.4% 46.6% Sucker Punch
7/17 4 35.6% 23.2% Arthur
7/17 3 37.2% 29.9% Insidious
7/17 7 45.7% 30.3% Rango
7/17 5 36.6% 31.1% The Lincoln Lawyer
7/24 7 40.4% 32.9% Limitless
7/31 6 41.1% 28.7% Source Code
8/7 13 33.4% 29.0% Rio
8/7 5 21.3% 18.7% Soul Surfer
8/21 4 16.6% 12.0% Dexter: The Fifth Season
8/21 4 52.4% 43.6% Priest
8/21 4 20.5% 17.1% Something Borrowed
9/4 3 9.3% 7.1% Madea's Big Happy Family
9/4 3 17.0% 18.2% Sons of Anarchy: Season Three
9/11 4 44.2% 34.7% Hanna
9/11 9 59.5% 51.8% X-Men: First Class
9/18 4 13.0% 7.6% The Big Bang Theory: Season 4
9/18 8 61.0% 53.4% Thor
9/25 13 30.3% 23.3% Bridesmaids
9/25 5 60.4% 39.0% Dumbo: 70th Anniversary Edition
9/25 6 20.1% 16.5% Spooky Buddies
10/2 9 64.4% 43.7% Transformers: Dark of the Moon
10/9 8 56.7% 45.9% Fast Five
10/16 5 61.2% 50.5% Green Lantern
10/16 5 41.6% 32.2% Horrible Bosses
10/16 3 27.5% 21.7% Zookeeper
10/30 6 67.8% 53.7% Captain America: The First Avenger
11/6 8 47.0% 27.3% Cars 2
11/13 7 48.9% 38.2% Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
11/27 5 58.7% 40.5% Super 8
12/4 3 42.0% 26.7% The Smurfs
12/11 3 44.0% 29.7% The Hangover Part II
12/11 3 24.0% 17.6% The Help

bruceames
12-30-2011, 02:33 PM
Well of course any title is going to gain market share over a long period of time (> 1 year), simply because of the increase in the user base. If TDK was released in an age where Blu-ray normally got a 10% top 20 unit market share, it's obviously going to do better in an era where the prevailing share is closer to 30%.

I want to focus on what the behavior is for titles that remain in the top 20, since after all that's where most of the sales are. I will include non-consecutive weeks (where a title drops out but falls back in a few weeks (or even months) later. But I will draw the line at resurrecting a title that suddenly reappears in the top 20 a year or more later, simply because it was sold at a really cheap price point.

I don't know where to draw the line about that yet, but it would probably be within 9 months to a year after the initial release date. After that, it's not a new release anymore, but a catalog, and my focus would be on new releases and their share behavior in the top 20 during the weeks/months that follow.

Regarding that 2008 TDK share info, wow, that seems really low compared to early 2009. So basically it was in the low teens when it was released, but jumped up to 30%+ the next month and stayed there? Was there some kind of price reduction for this title in January?

Also TDK was released on 12/9/08 (WE 12/14/08), but according to your chart, you have data for it going back two months earlier?

Thanks for the info, btw.

bruceames
12-30-2011, 02:36 PM
Bruce can you send me by email or PM or post the entire database file there including all of the weeks that you have and I can perhaps merge it with the BD title share chart data that I have on hand when I can find time to do so?

Sure...

Kosty
12-30-2011, 02:55 PM
Well the Top 20 Sellers list is basically a cutoff of volume after 30,000 units as DVD volumes kick stuff off the title. But longer term Blu-ray volumes can be in the 10,000 to 20,000 or more units per week of some prominent evergreen stock titles and the Blu-ray marketshare rises over time.

So even if they were not on the Top 20 list they might be on the Top 50 list which is the first alert capture and even if not there they might be accumulating 10,000 units or more if they are a steady seller. The dynamics of it is that the DVD market is fully saturated and most sales occur weeks 1-8 and then the DVD sales descend into under 5000 or even 2000 a week or less in the mass of great grey goo. But the Blu-ray sales have a much longer tail that does not drop off a cliff after 8 weeks so much especially for a action high profile Blu-ray genre title that is evergreen stocked at major retailers. Thus over the long term the Blu-ray unit share in the data I have seen has steadily risen over time as its sustained by new owners as unlike DVD the Blu-ray user base is growing over time. DVD unit sales are loaded into weeks 1-4 then at a lesser level weeks 5-8 then off a cliff until the title is promotionally priced at a major retail, then unit volumes go up but revenues not so much. Blu-ray titles stay at a higher maintenance volume over the log term as a trend in the data I have seen and are discounted less and tend to generate more revenue share and what I have seen greater unit marketshare over the long term.

Looking forward to seeing your data and combining with what I may have on top of it to see if there has been any change this year.

One other possibility is that the overall trend may actually be stable or what it was in past years from week 2 to infinity but in 2011 for some reason the week one Blu-ray marketshare may be inflated this year because of the preorders or some other retail or studio release week support and larger point of sale displays or something else that boosted week one Blu-ray units sold in 2011. That would also explain the possible larger unit volume dropoffs between release week and second week that was signaled in the The-Numbers Blu-ray Top 10 chart data we have from may 2010 through current.

Kosty
12-30-2011, 03:01 PM
Bruce:

Can you do a quick sort and see what the percent change is starting not from week one release week but from week two?

That may show that it might be more stable from week two to infinity and that would match previous historical trending from the years prior?

That would be with the theory that for some reason the week one unit share for Blu-ray have increased because of preorders or some other factor and then stay stable or perhaps even rise over time.

The other thing to look at is to look at how it works with better performing titles and by genre where the better matching or higher volume titles might have less or more change than the weak sellers or poor Blu-ray genres.

bruceames
12-30-2011, 03:13 PM
Well the Top 20 Sellers list is basically a cutoff of volume after 30,000 units as DVD volumes kick stuff off the title. But longer term Blu-ray volumes can be in the 10,000 to 20,000 or more units per week of some prominent evergreen stock titles and the Blu-ray marketshare rises over time.

So even if they were not on the Top 20 list they might be on the Top 50 list which is the first alert capture and even if not there they might be accumulating 10,000 units or more if they are a steady seller. The dynamics of it is that the DVD market is fully saturated and most sales occur weeks 1-8 and then the DVD sales descend into under 5000 or even 2000 a week or less in the mass of great grey goo. But the Blu-ray sales have a much longer tail that does not drop off a cliff after 8 weeks so much especially for a action high profile Blu-ray genre title that is evergreen stocked at major retailers. Thus over the long term the Blu-ray unit share in the data I have seen has steadily risen over time as its sustained by new owners as unlike DVD the Blu-ray user base is growing over time. DVD unit sales are loaded into weeks 1-4 then at a lesser level weeks 5-8 then off a cliff until the title is promotionally priced at a major retail, then unit volumes go up but revenues not so much. Blu-ray titles stay at a higher maintenance volume over the log term as a trend in the data I have seen and are discounted less and tend to generate more revenue share and what I have seen greater unit marketshare over the long term.

Looking forward to seeing your data and combining with what I may have on top of it to see if there has been any change this year.

One other possibility is that the overall trend may actually be stable or what it was in past years from week 2 to infinity but in 2011 for some reason the week one Blu-ray marketshare may be inflated this year because of the preorders or some other retail or studio release week support and larger point of sale displays or something else that boosted week one Blu-ray units sold in 2011. That would also explain the possible larger unit volume dropoffs between release week and second week that was signaled in the The-Numbers Blu-ray Top 10 chart data we have from may 2010 through current.

I'll have to disagree about the DVD SKU dying after week 8 but not the Blu-ray. If you look closely at that data above, you'll notice that on the contrary, the longer running titles have the biggest drop off from week 1 to week 2 and beyond. Here are the averages:


weeks counted ABSchange %Change
3-4 weeks -6.8% -21.1%
5-8 weeks -7.5% -18.6%
>8 weeks -9.3% -21.6%
>12 weeks -10.3% -26.5%

Kosty
12-30-2011, 03:18 PM
Here is your same list sorted by the absolute magnitude of the drop off not by percentage.


date #weeks Week1 Remaining Abschange %Change Title
11/28/11 12 32.50% 45.10% 12.60% 38.90% The Expendables
12/05/11 3 29.00% 37.10% 8.00% 27.70% Knight and Day
12/05/11 3 42.80% 50.00% 7.20% 16.90% The Sorcerer's Apprentice
03/20/11 5 39.60% 44.40% 4.70% 11.90% The Fighter
02/13/11 5 14.70% 18.30% 3.70% 25.00% Life as We Know It
12/26/11 5 17.00% 19.90% 2.90% 17.00% Easy A
12/19/11 7 42.00% 44.40% 2.40% 5.60% The A-Team
11/28/11 6 7.60% 9.90% 2.30% 30.90% Eat Pray Love
09/04/11 3 17.00% 18.20% 1.20% 6.80% Sons of Anarchy: Season Three
09/19/11 6 10.00% 10.00% 0.00% 0.10% Letters to Juliet
01/02/11 5 44.20% 44.20% 0.00% 0.00% Resident Evil: Afterlife
12/19/11 7 36.00% 34.70% -1.30% -3.60% The Other Guys
12/19/11 14 29.00% 27.60% -1.40% -4.90% Despicable Me
03/06/11 4 18.70% 17.20% -1.50% -7.90% Love & Other Drugs
02/27/11 7 33.30% 31.70% -1.60% -4.80% Due Date
11/14/11 4 6.00% 4.40% -1.60% -26.60% Ramona and Beezus
03/06/11 5 32.40% 30.40% -2.00% -6.20% Faster
09/04/11 3 9.30% 7.10% -2.20% -23.20% Madea's Big Happy Family
11/14/11 6 23.50% 21.10% -2.40% -10.10% Grown Ups
03/06/11 6 26.70% 24.10% -2.50% -9.40% Burlesque
08/07/11 5 21.30% 18.70% -2.50% -11.90% Soul Surfer
10/03/11 4 28.00% 24.70% -3.30% -11.80% Get Him to the Greek
08/21/11 4 20.50% 17.10% -3.40% -16.60% Something Borrowed
05/15/11 4 26.70% 23.00% -3.60% -13.70% No Strings Attached
09/25/11 6 20.10% 16.50% -3.60% -18.10% Spooky Buddies
11/21/11 5 37.00% 33.30% -3.70% -9.90% A Christmas Carol
12/19/11 10 46.00% 42.10% -3.90% -8.40% The Town
01/30/11 10 29.70% 25.70% -3.90% -13.30% Secretariat
08/07/11 13 33.40% 29.00% -4.40% -13.20% Rio
03/06/11 3 33.00% 28.40% -4.60% -13.80% 127 Hours
08/21/11 4 16.60% 12.00% -4.60% -27.80% Dexter: The Fifth Season
04/17/11 8 18.60% 13.60% -4.90% -26.60% Country Strong
12/26/11 9 39.00% 34.00% -5.00% -12.90% Salt
03/27/11 4 27.90% 22.90% -5.00% -18.00% Yogi Bear
04/10/11 5 23.70% 18.40% -5.30% -22.20% Little Fockers
09/18/11 4 13.00% 7.60% -5.40% -41.70% The Big Bang Theory: Season 4
07/17/11 5 36.60% 31.10% -5.50% -14.90% The Lincoln Lawyer
12/26/11 5 31.00% 25.30% -5.70% -18.40% Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
01/09/11 3 24.80% 19.10% -5.70% -22.90% Dinner for Schmucks
03/13/11 3 39.90% 34.20% -5.80% -14.40% Jackass 3
10/16/11 3 27.50% 21.70% -5.80% -21.00% Zookeeper
01/16/11 4 22.70% 16.80% -5.90% -26.10% Alpha and Omega
03/27/11 4 34.40% 28.40% -6.00% -17.40% The Tourist
02/06/11 5 16.20% 10.30% -6.00% -36.70% Beverly Hills Chihuahua 2
10/17/11 3 33.60% 27.20% -6.40% -19.00% Jonah Hex
12/26/11 3 24.00% 17.60% -6.40% -26.50% Family Guy: It's a Trap!
12/11/11 3 24.00% 17.60% -6.40% -26.50% The Help
06/05/11 4 25.30% 18.60% -6.70% -26.40% True Blood: The Complete 3rd Season
10/31/11 4 17.50% 10.80% -6.70% -38.40% Sex and the City 2
03/13/11 3 45.40% 38.60% -6.80% -15.00% The Walking Dead: The Complete first Season
11/21/11 3 36.00% 29.20% -6.80% -18.80% The Last Airbender
01/09/11 4 40.70% 33.70% -7.00% -17.30% Machete
09/25/11 13 30.30% 23.30% -7.00% -23.20% Bridesmaids
09/19/11 6 43.00% 35.80% -7.20% -16.80% Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time
07/17/11 3 37.20% 29.90% -7.30% -19.70% Insidious
01/23/11 4 31.90% 24.60% -7.30% -22.80% Takers
12/05/11 14 22.70% 15.20% -7.40% -32.80% The Twilight Saga: Eclips
07/24/11 7 40.40% 32.90% -7.50% -18.60% Limitless
09/18/11 8 61.00% 53.40% -7.60% -12.50% Thor
02/20/11 7 35.70% 28.10% -7.60% -21.30% Unstoppable
09/11/11 9 59.50% 51.80% -7.80% -13.00% X-Men: First Class
10/17/11 15 30.50% 22.60% -8.00% -26.10% How to Train Your Dragon
10/24/11 4 42.40% 34.30% -8.10% -19.10% Predators
06/12/11 7 35.50% 27.40% -8.20% -23.00% Just Go With It
01/30/11 3 22.40% 14.10% -8.30% -37.00% Open Season 3
12/19/11 3 34.00% 25.50% -8.50% -24.90% Legend of the Guardians:
08/21/11 4 52.40% 43.60% -8.70% -16.70% Priest
05/15/11 7 18.80% 9.90% -8.80% -47.00% Justin Bieber: Never Say Never
06/26/11 4 41.00% 31.70% -9.30% -22.70% Unknown
04/17/11 27 45.80% 36.30% -9.40% -20.60% Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part 1
10/16/11 5 41.60% 32.20% -9.40% -22.60% Horrible Bosses
11/07/11 8 35.20% 25.80% -9.40% -26.70% The Pacific
09/11/11 4 44.20% 34.70% -9.50% -21.50% Hanna
04/24/11 10 26.30% 16.80% -9.50% -36.00% The King's Speech
06/19/11 4 36.20% 26.40% -9.80% -27.10% Red Riding Hood
05/29/11 7 36.20% 26.10% -10.10% -27.80% Gnomeo & Juliet
11/07/11 20 33.10% 23.00% -10.10% -30.50% Toy Story 3
10/10/11 7 27.00% 16.90% -10.10% -37.40% The Karate Kid
01/16/11 7 44.90% 34.80% -10.20% -22.70% The Social Network
05/08/11 6 49.50% 39.20% -10.30% -20.80% The Green Hornet
06/19/11 5 40.50% 30.10% -10.40% -25.60% Hall Pass
10/16/11 5 61.20% 50.50% -10.70% -17.50% Green Lantern
11/13/11 7 48.90% 38.20% -10.70% -21.90% Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part 2
10/09/11 8 56.70% 45.90% -10.80% -19.00% Fast Five
09/26/11 7 26.00% 15.20% -10.80% -41.40% Tinker Bell and the Great Fairy resque
09/26/11 8 42.00% 31.10% -10.90% -25.90% Robin Hood
05/22/11 3 47.40% 36.40% -11.10% -23.40% The Mechanic
06/26/11 6 24.40% 13.20% -11.20% -46.00% Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules
05/29/11 3 42.90% 31.40% -11.40% -26.70% I Am Number Four
02/27/11 10 35.80% 24.30% -11.50% -32.00% Megamind
04/10/11 7 44.20% 32.50% -11.70% -26.50% The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Trader
10/10/11 4 37.00% 25.30% -11.70% -31.70% A Nightmare on Elm Street
06/12/11 7 52.60% 40.10% -12.40% -23.60% True Grit
07/31/11 6 41.10% 28.70% -12.40% -30.20% Source Code
07/17/11 4 35.60% 23.20% -12.40% -34.90% Arthur
06/26/11 4 43.40% 30.50% -12.90% -29.80% The Adjustment Bureau
12/12/11 7 29.30% 15.40% -13.90% -47.60% Shrek Forever After
06/19/11 5 58.60% 44.60% -14.00% -23.90% Battle: Los Angeles
10/30/11 6 67.80% 53.70% -14.10% -20.80% Captain America: The Firs
04/10/11 10 68.20% 53.90% -14.30% -21.00% Tron: Legacy
12/11/11 3 44.00% 29.70% -14.30% -32.60% The Hangover Part II
07/03/11 4 61.40% 46.60% -14.90% -24.20% Sucker Punch
12/04/11 3 42.00% 26.70% -15.30% -36.40% The Smurfs
07/17/11 7 45.70% 30.30% -15.40% -33.60% Rango
04/03/11 3 43.20% 27.80% -15.50% -35.80% Black Swan
04/03/11 19 40.80% 25.00% -15.70% -38.60% Tangled
11/27/11 5 58.70% 40.50% -18.10% -30.90% Super 8
12/12/11 20 64.90% 46.40% -18.50% -28.50% Inception
10/03/11 11 52.00% 32.90% -19.10% -36.70% Iron Man 2
11/06/11 8 47.00% 27.30% -19.70% -42.00% Cars 2
10/02/11 9 64.40% 43.70% -20.70% -32.20% Transformers: Dark of the Moon
09/25/11 5 60.40% 39.00% -21.30% -35.30% Dumbo: 70th Anniversary Edition
01/30/11 13 45.50% 24.10% -21.40% -47.00% Red

bruceames
12-30-2011, 03:20 PM
Bruce:

Can you do a quick sort and see what the percent change is starting not from week one release week but from week two?

That may show that it might be more stable from week two to infinity and that would match previous historical trending from the years prior?

That would be with the theory that for some reason the week one unit share for Blu-ray have increased because of preorders or some other factor and then stay stable or perhaps even rise over time.

The other thing to look at is to look at how it works with better performing titles and by genre where the better matching or higher volume titles might have less or more change than the weak sellers or poor Blu-ray genres.

But Kosty, the whole point is to show that the real prevailing market share of a given title is not what pops up in week 1. People think that because Transformers: DOTM did 64% in week 1, that it's a 64% share Blu-ray title. But that is not the case. Transformers after that week has done an (top 20) average of only 43.7% since that time, and believe it or not, most of the sales of top titles, or any title, occur after week 1. The purpose of this thread is to ascertain the "true" market share of a given title, during it's initial run.

I know it's like going to a loan shark, but I'll probably be getting some data from The-Numbers to determine what the unit sales ratios are for week 1 vs. after week 1 sales.

bruceames
12-30-2011, 03:21 PM
Here is your same list sorted by the absolute magnitude of the drop off not by percentage.


date #weeks Week1 Remaining Abschange %Change Title
11/28/11 12 32.50% 45.10% 12.60% 38.90% The Expendables
12/05/11 3 29.00% 37.10% 8.00% 27.70% Knight and Day
12/05/11 3 42.80% 50.00% 7.20% 16.90% The Sorcerer's Apprentice
03/20/11 5 39.60% 44.40% 4.70% 11.90% The Fighter
02/13/11 5 14.70% 18.30% 3.70% 25.00% Life as We Know It
12/26/11 5 17.00% 19.90% 2.90% 17.00% Easy A
12/19/11 7 42.00% 44.40% 2.40% 5.60% The A-Team
11/28/11 6 7.60% 9.90% 2.30% 30.90% Eat Pray Love
09/04/11 3 17.00% 18.20% 1.20% 6.80% Sons of Anarchy: Season Three
09/19/11 6 10.00% 10.00% 0.00% 0.10% Letters to Juliet
01/02/11 5 44.20% 44.20% 0.00% 0.00% Resident Evil: Afterlife
12/19/11 7 36.00% 34.70% -1.30% -3.60% The Other Guys
12/19/11 14 29.00% 27.60% -1.40% -4.90% Despicable Me
03/06/11 4 18.70% 17.20% -1.50% -7.90% Love & Other Drugs
02/27/11 7 33.30% 31.70% -1.60% -4.80% Due Date
11/14/11 4 6.00% 4.40% -1.60% -26.60% Ramona and Beezus
03/06/11 5 32.40% 30.40% -2.00% -6.20% Faster
09/04/11 3 9.30% 7.10% -2.20% -23.20% Madea's Big Happy Family
11/14/11 6 23.50% 21.10% -2.40% -10.10% Grown Ups
03/06/11 6 26.70% 24.10% -2.50% -9.40% Burlesque
08/07/11 5 21.30% 18.70% -2.50% -11.90% Soul Surfer
10/03/11 4 28.00% 24.70% -3.30% -11.80% Get Him to the Greek
08/21/11 4 20.50% 17.10% -3.40% -16.60% Something Borrowed
05/15/11 4 26.70% 23.00% -3.60% -13.70% No Strings Attached
09/25/11 6 20.10% 16.50% -3.60% -18.10% Spooky Buddies
11/21/11 5 37.00% 33.30% -3.70% -9.90% A Christmas Carol
12/19/11 10 46.00% 42.10% -3.90% -8.40% The Town
01/30/11 10 29.70% 25.70% -3.90% -13.30% Secretariat
08/07/11 13 33.40% 29.00% -4.40% -13.20% Rio
03/06/11 3 33.00% 28.40% -4.60% -13.80% 127 Hours
08/21/11 4 16.60% 12.00% -4.60% -27.80% Dexter: The Fifth Season
04/17/11 8 18.60% 13.60% -4.90% -26.60% Country Strong
12/26/11 9 39.00% 34.00% -5.00% -12.90% Salt
03/27/11 4 27.90% 22.90% -5.00% -18.00% Yogi Bear
04/10/11 5 23.70% 18.40% -5.30% -22.20% Little Fockers
09/18/11 4 13.00% 7.60% -5.40% -41.70% The Big Bang Theory: Season 4
07/17/11 5 36.60% 31.10% -5.50% -14.90% The Lincoln Lawyer
12/26/11 5 31.00% 25.30% -5.70% -18.40% Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
01/09/11 3 24.80% 19.10% -5.70% -22.90% Dinner for Schmucks
03/13/11 3 39.90% 34.20% -5.80% -14.40% Jackass 3
10/16/11 3 27.50% 21.70% -5.80% -21.00% Zookeeper
01/16/11 4 22.70% 16.80% -5.90% -26.10% Alpha and Omega
03/27/11 4 34.40% 28.40% -6.00% -17.40% The Tourist
02/06/11 5 16.20% 10.30% -6.00% -36.70% Beverly Hills Chihuahua 2
10/17/11 3 33.60% 27.20% -6.40% -19.00% Jonah Hex
12/26/11 3 24.00% 17.60% -6.40% -26.50% Family Guy: It's a Trap!
12/11/11 3 24.00% 17.60% -6.40% -26.50% The Help
06/05/11 4 25.30% 18.60% -6.70% -26.40% True Blood: The Complete 3rd Season
10/31/11 4 17.50% 10.80% -6.70% -38.40% Sex and the City 2
03/13/11 3 45.40% 38.60% -6.80% -15.00% The Walking Dead: The Complete first Season
11/21/11 3 36.00% 29.20% -6.80% -18.80% The Last Airbender
01/09/11 4 40.70% 33.70% -7.00% -17.30% Machete
09/25/11 13 30.30% 23.30% -7.00% -23.20% Bridesmaids
09/19/11 6 43.00% 35.80% -7.20% -16.80% Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time
07/17/11 3 37.20% 29.90% -7.30% -19.70% Insidious
01/23/11 4 31.90% 24.60% -7.30% -22.80% Takers
12/05/11 14 22.70% 15.20% -7.40% -32.80% The Twilight Saga: Eclips
07/24/11 7 40.40% 32.90% -7.50% -18.60% Limitless
09/18/11 8 61.00% 53.40% -7.60% -12.50% Thor
02/20/11 7 35.70% 28.10% -7.60% -21.30% Unstoppable
09/11/11 9 59.50% 51.80% -7.80% -13.00% X-Men: First Class
10/17/11 15 30.50% 22.60% -8.00% -26.10% How to Train Your Dragon
10/24/11 4 42.40% 34.30% -8.10% -19.10% Predators
06/12/11 7 35.50% 27.40% -8.20% -23.00% Just Go With It
01/30/11 3 22.40% 14.10% -8.30% -37.00% Open Season 3
12/19/11 3 34.00% 25.50% -8.50% -24.90% Legend of the Guardians:
08/21/11 4 52.40% 43.60% -8.70% -16.70% Priest
05/15/11 7 18.80% 9.90% -8.80% -47.00% Justin Bieber: Never Say Never
06/26/11 4 41.00% 31.70% -9.30% -22.70% Unknown
04/17/11 27 45.80% 36.30% -9.40% -20.60% Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part 1
10/16/11 5 41.60% 32.20% -9.40% -22.60% Horrible Bosses
11/07/11 8 35.20% 25.80% -9.40% -26.70% The Pacific
09/11/11 4 44.20% 34.70% -9.50% -21.50% Hanna
04/24/11 10 26.30% 16.80% -9.50% -36.00% The King's Speech
06/19/11 4 36.20% 26.40% -9.80% -27.10% Red Riding Hood
05/29/11 7 36.20% 26.10% -10.10% -27.80% Gnomeo & Juliet
11/07/11 20 33.10% 23.00% -10.10% -30.50% Toy Story 3
10/10/11 7 27.00% 16.90% -10.10% -37.40% The Karate Kid
01/16/11 7 44.90% 34.80% -10.20% -22.70% The Social Network
05/08/11 6 49.50% 39.20% -10.30% -20.80% The Green Hornet
06/19/11 5 40.50% 30.10% -10.40% -25.60% Hall Pass
10/16/11 5 61.20% 50.50% -10.70% -17.50% Green Lantern
11/13/11 7 48.90% 38.20% -10.70% -21.90% Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part 2
10/09/11 8 56.70% 45.90% -10.80% -19.00% Fast Five
09/26/11 7 26.00% 15.20% -10.80% -41.40% Tinker Bell and the Great Fairy resque
09/26/11 8 42.00% 31.10% -10.90% -25.90% Robin Hood
05/22/11 3 47.40% 36.40% -11.10% -23.40% The Mechanic
06/26/11 6 24.40% 13.20% -11.20% -46.00% Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules
05/29/11 3 42.90% 31.40% -11.40% -26.70% I Am Number Four
02/27/11 10 35.80% 24.30% -11.50% -32.00% Megamind
04/10/11 7 44.20% 32.50% -11.70% -26.50% The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Trader
10/10/11 4 37.00% 25.30% -11.70% -31.70% A Nightmare on Elm Street
06/12/11 7 52.60% 40.10% -12.40% -23.60% True Grit
07/31/11 6 41.10% 28.70% -12.40% -30.20% Source Code
07/17/11 4 35.60% 23.20% -12.40% -34.90% Arthur
06/26/11 4 43.40% 30.50% -12.90% -29.80% The Adjustment Bureau
12/12/11 7 29.30% 15.40% -13.90% -47.60% Shrek Forever After
06/19/11 5 58.60% 44.60% -14.00% -23.90% Battle: Los Angeles
10/30/11 6 67.80% 53.70% -14.10% -20.80% Captain America: The Firs
04/10/11 10 68.20% 53.90% -14.30% -21.00% Tron: Legacy
12/11/11 3 44.00% 29.70% -14.30% -32.60% The Hangover Part II
07/03/11 4 61.40% 46.60% -14.90% -24.20% Sucker Punch
12/04/11 3 42.00% 26.70% -15.30% -36.40% The Smurfs
07/17/11 7 45.70% 30.30% -15.40% -33.60% Rango
04/03/11 3 43.20% 27.80% -15.50% -35.80% Black Swan
04/03/11 19 40.80% 25.00% -15.70% -38.60% Tangled
11/27/11 5 58.70% 40.50% -18.10% -30.90% Super 8
12/12/11 20 64.90% 46.40% -18.50% -28.50% Inception
10/03/11 11 52.00% 32.90% -19.10% -36.70% Iron Man 2
11/06/11 8 47.00% 27.30% -19.70% -42.00% Cars 2
10/02/11 9 64.40% 43.70% -20.70% -32.20% Transformers: Dark of the Moon
09/25/11 5 60.40% 39.00% -21.30% -35.30% Dumbo: 70th Anniversary Edition
01/30/11 13 45.50% 24.10% -21.40% -47.00% Red



Sure, that's fine sorting it that way. You'll get similar results for the most part, but it'll slightly skew the results against the titles having the most market share, because after all, they have the most to lose.

Of those movies that are in the negative, look at the differences in market share in the titles at the top and bottom of the list.

Kosty
12-30-2011, 03:23 PM
On the list above and on this list the opening week Blu-ray marketshare is bolded if it is over 30%

Perhaps not that surprising but the titles that had the largest drop from the opening week (over 10%) also tended to be the ones that had the highest opening week Blu-ray marketshares to start with.

All things considered that for new releases most of the revenues and units sold are in the first week and immediately subsequent weeks, its perhaps not a bad thing that the first week with the highest volume would be the highest share for the premium priced Blu-ray skus.



date #weeks Week1 Remaining Abschange %Change Title

05/29/11 7 36.20% 26.10% -10.10% -27.80% Gnomeo & Juliet
11/07/11 20 33.10% 23.00% -10.10% -30.50% Toy Story 3
10/10/11 7 27.00% 16.90% -10.10% -37.40% The Karate Kid
01/16/11 7 44.90% 34.80% -10.20% -22.70% The Social Network
05/08/11 6 49.50% 39.20% -10.30% -20.80% The Green Hornet
06/19/11 5 40.50% 30.10% -10.40% -25.60% Hall Pass
10/16/11 5 61.20% 50.50% -10.70% -17.50% Green Lantern
11/13/11 7 48.90% 38.20% -10.70% -21.90% Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part 2
10/09/11 8 56.70% 45.90% -10.80% -19.00% Fast Five
09/26/11 7 26.00% 15.20% -10.80% -41.40% Tinker Bell and the Great Fairy resque
09/26/11 8 42.00% 31.10% -10.90% -25.90% Robin Hood
05/22/11 3 47.40% 36.40% -11.10% -23.40% The Mechanic
06/26/11 6 24.40% 13.20% -11.20% -46.00% Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules
05/29/11 3 42.90% 31.40% -11.40% -26.70% I Am Number Four
02/27/11 10 35.80% 24.30% -11.50% -32.00% Megamind
04/10/11 7 44.20% 32.50% -11.70% -26.50% The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Trader
10/10/11 4 37.00% 25.30% -11.70% -31.70% A Nightmare on Elm Street
06/12/11 7 52.60% 40.10% -12.40% -23.60% True Grit
07/31/11 6 41.10% 28.70% -12.40% -30.20% Source Code
07/17/11 4 35.60% 23.20% -12.40% -34.90% Arthur
06/26/11 4 43.40% 30.50% -12.90% -29.80% The Adjustment Bureau
12/12/11 7 29.30% 15.40% -13.90% -47.60% Shrek Forever After
06/19/11 5 58.60% 44.60% -14.00% -23.90% Battle: Los Angeles
10/30/11 6 67.80% 53.70% -14.10% -20.80% Captain America: The Firs
04/10/11 10 68.20% 53.90% -14.30% -21.00% Tron: Legacy
12/11/11 3 44.00% 29.70% -14.30% -32.60% The Hangover Part II
07/03/11 4 61.40% 46.60% -14.90% -24.20% Sucker Punch
12/04/11 3 42.00% 26.70% -15.30% -36.40% The Smurfs
07/17/11 7 45.70% 30.30% -15.40% -33.60% Rango
04/03/11 3 43.20% 27.80% -15.50% -35.80% Black Swan
04/03/11 19 40.80% 25.00% -15.70% -38.60% Tangled
11/27/11 5 58.70% 40.50% -18.10% -30.90% Super 8
12/12/11 20 64.90% 46.40% -18.50% -28.50% Inception
10/03/11 11 52.00% 32.90% -19.10% -36.70% Iron Man 2
11/06/11 8 47.00% 27.30% -19.70% -42.00% Cars 2
10/02/11 9 64.40% 43.70% -20.70% -32.20% Transformers: Dark of the Moon
09/25/11 5 60.40% 39.00% -21.30% -35.30% Dumbo: 70th Anniversary Edition
01/30/11 13 45.50% 24.10% -21.40% -47.00% Red

Kosty
12-30-2011, 03:26 PM
Sure, that's fine sorting it that way. You'll get similar results for the most part, but it'll slightly skew the results against the titles having the most market share, because after all, they have the most to lose.

Look at the differences in market share in the titles at the top and bottom of the list.

But isn't it best that high volume titles have a higher Blu-ray marketshare in the first week as that is when the most units are sold?

That also could signal greater Blu-ray owner motivation to purchase on the first week or more pre orders for more tech savvy Blu-ray owners?

bruceames
12-30-2011, 03:29 PM
On the list above and on this list the opening week Blu-ray marketshare is bolded if it is over 30%

Perhaps not that surprising but the titles that had the largest drop from the opening week (over 10%) also tended to be the ones that had the highest opening week Blu-ray marketshares to start with.

All things considered that for new releases most of the revenues and units sold are in the first week and immediately subsequent weeks, its perhaps not a bad thing that the first week with the highest volume would be the highest share for the premium priced Blu-ray skus.





date #weeks Week1 Remaining Abschange %Change Title

05/29/11 7 36.20% 26.10% -10.10% -27.80% Gnomeo & Juliet
11/07/11 20 33.10% 23.00% -10.10% -30.50% Toy Story 3
10/10/11 7 27.00% 16.90% -10.10% -37.40% The Karate Kid
01/16/11 7 44.90% 34.80% -10.20% -22.70% The Social Network
05/08/11 6 49.50% 39.20% -10.30% -20.80% The Green Hornet
06/19/11 5 40.50% 30.10% -10.40% -25.60% Hall Pass
10/16/11 5 61.20% 50.50% -10.70% -17.50% Green Lantern
11/13/11 7 48.90% 38.20% -10.70% -21.90% Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part 2
10/09/11 8 56.70% 45.90% -10.80% -19.00% Fast Five
09/26/11 7 26.00% 15.20% -10.80% -41.40% Tinker Bell and the Great Fairy resque
09/26/11 8 42.00% 31.10% -10.90% -25.90% Robin Hood
05/22/11 3 47.40% 36.40% -11.10% -23.40% The Mechanic
06/26/11 6 24.40% 13.20% -11.20% -46.00% Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules
05/29/11 3 42.90% 31.40% -11.40% -26.70% I Am Number Four
02/27/11 10 35.80% 24.30% -11.50% -32.00% Megamind
04/10/11 7 44.20% 32.50% -11.70% -26.50% The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Trader
10/10/11 4 37.00% 25.30% -11.70% -31.70% A Nightmare on Elm Street
06/12/11 7 52.60% 40.10% -12.40% -23.60% True Grit
07/31/11 6 41.10% 28.70% -12.40% -30.20% Source Code
07/17/11 4 35.60% 23.20% -12.40% -34.90% Arthur
06/26/11 4 43.40% 30.50% -12.90% -29.80% The Adjustment Bureau
12/12/11 7 29.30% 15.40% -13.90% -47.60% Shrek Forever After
06/19/11 5 58.60% 44.60% -14.00% -23.90% Battle: Los Angeles
10/30/11 6 67.80% 53.70% -14.10% -20.80% Captain America: The Firs
04/10/11 10 68.20% 53.90% -14.30% -21.00% Tron: Legacy
12/11/11 3 44.00% 29.70% -14.30% -32.60% The Hangover Part II
07/03/11 4 61.40% 46.60% -14.90% -24.20% Sucker Punch
12/04/11 3 42.00% 26.70% -15.30% -36.40% The Smurfs
07/17/11 7 45.70% 30.30% -15.40% -33.60% Rango
04/03/11 3 43.20% 27.80% -15.50% -35.80% Black Swan
04/03/11 19 40.80% 25.00% -15.70% -38.60% Tangled
11/27/11 5 58.70% 40.50% -18.10% -30.90% Super 8
12/12/11 20 64.90% 46.40% -18.50% -28.50% Inception
10/03/11 11 52.00% 32.90% -19.10% -36.70% Iron Man 2
11/06/11 8 47.00% 27.30% -19.70% -42.00% Cars 2
10/02/11 9 64.40% 43.70% -20.70% -32.20% Transformers: Dark of the Moon
09/25/11 5 60.40% 39.00% -21.30% -35.30% Dumbo: 70th Anniversary Edition
01/30/11 13 45.50% 24.10% -21.40% -47.00% Red



Of course. That's why I used the ratio of the percentage change (%Change), rather than the absolute percentage change (ABSchange). It levels the playing field for titles with different magnitudes of market share to begin with.

Kosty
12-30-2011, 03:33 PM
I think it might be really interesting to see what the attrition or gain in Blu-ray unit marketshare would be excluding week one of release.

The higher Blu-ray unit marketshare of course would be desirable in the highest volume week where it has most impact in other words the release week.

That might be a retailer and studio support and enthusiasm success story if in 2011 the week one BD unit percentages were goosed up.

If the week two to infinity Blu-ray unit marketshares were stable or gained over time that would indicate that Blu-ray unit marketshare were stable over time in the same pattern as before , but that only the week one release week Blu-ray unit marketshare were inflated over the sustained rate over time from week two to infinity.

Do you get what I am saying? Try doing it without week one and look at week two as the starting reference point for the unit marketshare percentage. Treat week one as an unusual outlier that is not in the data set as it has unique dynamics and circumstances that do not apply to the rest of the trend over time.

bruceames
12-30-2011, 03:33 PM
But isn't it best that high volume titles have a higher Blu-ray marketshare in the first week as that is when the most units are sold?

That also could signal greater Blu-ray owner motivation to purchase on the first week or more pre orders for more tech savvy Blu-ray owners?

Much of the reason I'm sure is in preorders. Perhaps it could also be that the Blu-ray week1 vs. week2 pricing is more favorable than with the DVD. Top Blu-rays are really being heavily discounted at week 1 now, and typically those are the ones that are being used as loss leaders. Perhaps they are not using DVD as a loss leader to the same extent, and besides, some of the DVD folk are buying the Blu-ray combo at week 1 because it's such a good deal compared to the DVD.

Kosty
12-30-2011, 03:35 PM
Of course. That's why I used the ratio of the percentage change (%Change), rather than the absolute percentage change (ABSchange). It levels the playing field for titles with different magnitudes of market share to begin with.

But once again by taking percentages of percentages you rather exaggerate the impact of the low performing titles.

The absolute change is the true value of impact for the trend.

Kosty
12-30-2011, 03:40 PM
I'll have to disagree about the DVD SKU dying after week 8 but not the Blu-ray. If you look closely at that data above, you'll notice that on the contrary, the longer running titles have the biggest drop off from week 1 to week 2 and beyond. Here are the averages:


weeks counted ABSchange %Change
3-4 weeks -6.8% -21.1%
5-8 weeks -7.5% -18.6%
>8 weeks -9.3% -21.6%
>12 weeks -10.3% -26.5%


Well part of that is the longest running titles on the Top 20 Sellers list also are the highest performing titles that also have the largest Blu-ray unit marketshare to begin with and are more likely to also have the largest week one Blu-ray unit marketshare to begin with.

Its a self selection bias from the limitation of only using the best performing titles over time that have not dropped off the Top 20 Sellers list and are maintaining 30,000 to 50,000 units per week over time.

Kosty
12-30-2011, 03:42 PM
Much of the reason I'm sure is in preorders. Perhaps it could also be that the Blu-ray week1 vs. week2 pricing is more favorable than with the DVD. Top Blu-rays are really being heavily discounted at week 1 now, and typically those are the ones that are being used as loss leaders. Perhaps they are not using DVD as a loss leader to the same extent, and besides, some of the DVD folk are buying the Blu-ray combo at week 1 because it's such a good deal compared to the DVD.

That's entirely possible.

It could also be that retailers have changed the emphasis or the studio mass marketing advertising is having a greater effect to enhance the Blu-ray week one sales (which is a good thing). Which might be a different dynamic than we have seen in the past.

Kosty
12-30-2011, 03:48 PM
I have a lot of data for the Blu-ray Top 20 Title Unit Marketshare going back through mid January 2010. Right now its not in a sortable or terribly usable form as its discreet by week in the middle of a loaded data speadsheet.

Maybe I'll have time to play with it after CES when I am going over my CES materials in my hotel room the week after the show while I still in Las Vegas and need to take a break from the Sin City action.

Your data will help as well.

I'm curious to see what we can see on all of this for the recent trends.

Appreciate the hard work and the conversation Bruce.

bruceames
12-30-2011, 03:50 PM
I think it might be really interesting to see what the attrition or gain in Blu-ray unit marketshare would be excluding week one of release.

The higher Blu-ray unit marketshare of course would be desirable in the highest volume week where it has most impact in other words the release week.

That might be a retailer and studio support and enthusiasm success story if in 2011 the week one BD unit percentages were goosed up.

If the week two to infinity Blu-ray unit marketshares were stable or gained over time that would indicate that Blu-ray unit marketshare were stable over time in the same pattern as before , but that only the week one release week Blu-ray unit marketshare were inflated over the sustained rate over time from week two to infinity.

Do you get what I am saying? Try doing it without week one and look at week two as the starting reference point for the unit marketshare percentage. Treat week one as an unusual outlier that is not in the data set as it has unique dynamics and circumstances that do not apply to the rest of the trend over time.

Ok Kosty, here you go...

After week 1, here is the same chart. The movies with only 3 records were discarded because we're starting with week 2 instead of week 1.

Overall there still an average (ABS) depreciation of -1.5%, even when starting with week 2.


date # weeks week2 week3+ ABSchange Title
6/12 7 57.2% 36.7% -20.5% True Grit
1/30 13 38.1% 22.8% -15.2% Red
10/2 9 56.8% 41.8% -15.0% Transformers: Dark of the Moon
7/17 7 42.5% 27.9% -14.6% Rango
4/3 19 33.4% 24.6% -8.9% Tangled
5/15 7 16.4% 8.7% -7.7% Justin Bieber: Never Say Never
9/25 13 30.0% 22.5% -7.5% Bridesmaids
2/27 10 30.8% 23.5% -7.3% Megamind
10/16 5 55.9% 48.7% -7.3% Green Lantern
10/9 8 50.2% 43.8% -6.4% Fast Five
10/10 7 22.2% 15.9% -6.3% The Karate Kid
11/13 7 43.5% 37.2% -6.3% Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2
5/15 4 27.2% 21.0% -6.2% No Strings Attached
4/10 7 37.7% 31.4% -6.2% The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader
7/17 4 27.0% 21.3% -5.7% Arthur
12/26 5 29.6% 23.9% -5.7% Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
9/26 8 36.0% 30.3% -5.7% Robin Hood
7/3 4 49.8% 44.9% -4.9% Sucker Punch
12/5 14 19.7% 14.8% -4.9% The Twilight Saga: Eclipse
10/31 4 13.9% 9.2% -4.7% Sex and the City 2
4/24 10 21.0% 16.3% -4.7% The King's Speech
9/26 7 19.0% 14.5% -4.5% Tinker Bell and the Great Fairy Rescue
1/16 7 38.5% 34.0% -4.5% The Social Network
12/26 9 37.9% 33.4% -4.4% Salt
3/27 4 31.1% 27.1% -4.1% The Tourist
1/9 4 36.3% 32.4% -3.9% Machete
10/17 15 26.1% 22.3% -3.8% How to Train Your Dragon
9/11 4 37.0% 33.5% -3.5% Hanna
9/25 5 41.5% 38.2% -3.3% Dumbo: 70th Anniversary Edition
11/7 8 28.7% 25.3% -3.3% The Pacific
11/6 8 33.1% 29.7% -3.3% Cars 2
11/7 20 26.0% 22.9% -3.1% Toy Story 3
9/18 8 55.9% 52.9% -3.0% Thor
3/6 6 26.6% 23.5% -3.0% Burlesque
1/2 5 46.5% 43.5% -3.0% Resident Evil: Afterlife
11/28 6 12.3% 9.3% -3.0% Eat Pray Love
6/19 5 46.8% 43.8% -3.0% Battle: Los Angeles
10/10 4 27.0% 24.4% -2.7% A Nightmare on Elm Street
1/23 4 26.3% 23.8% -2.6% Takers
10/16 5 34.1% 31.6% -2.4% Horrible Bosses
11/14 4 6.0% 3.6% -2.4% Ramona and Beezus
9/18 4 9.1% 6.8% -2.3% The Big Bang Theory: Season 4
4/10 5 20.0% 17.9% -2.1% Little Fockers
6/5 4 19.9% 17.9% -2.0% True Blood: The Complete Third Season
5/8 6 40.7% 38.8% -1.9% The Green Hornet
3/27 4 24.1% 22.3% -1.8% Yogi Bear
6/26 4 32.9% 31.1% -1.8% Unknown
12/12 20 48.0% 46.3% -1.7% Inception
9/11 9 53.3% 51.5% -1.7% X-Men: First Class
1/30 10 27.1% 25.6% -1.6% Secretariat
2/20 7 29.2% 27.9% -1.4% Unstoppable
1/16 4 17.7% 16.4% -1.3% Alpha and Omega
9/19 6 11.0% 9.8% -1.2% Letters to Juliet
8/21 4 12.8% 11.6% -1.2% Dexter: The Fifth Season
6/26 4 31.2% 30.1% -1.0% The Adjustment Bureau
4/17 27 37.2% 36.3% -0.9% Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 1
11/27 5 41.2% 40.3% -0.9% Super 8
6/19 4 27.0% 26.2% -0.8% Red Riding Hood
8/21 4 44.1% 43.4% -0.7% Priest
8/7 5 19.1% 18.6% -0.5% Soul Surfer
10/30 6 54.0% 53.6% -0.4% Captain America: The First Avenger
4/10 10 54.2% 53.8% -0.4% Tron: Legacy
6/19 5 30.4% 30.0% -0.4% Hall Pass
8/7 13 29.3% 29.0% -0.3% Rio
9/19 6 36.0% 35.7% -0.3% Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time
2/6 5 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% Beverly Hills Chihuahua 2
7/24 7 32.8% 32.9% 0.1% Limitless
11/21 5 33.0% 33.3% 0.3% A Christmas Carol
12/12 7 15.0% 15.4% 0.4% Shrek Forever After
3/6 5 30.0% 30.5% 0.5% Faster
2/13 5 17.9% 18.5% 0.5% Life as We Know It
10/24 4 33.6% 34.7% 1.1% Predators
12/26 5 19.0% 20.2% 1.2% Easy A
6/26 6 12.1% 13.4% 1.3% Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules
7/17 5 29.4% 31.7% 2.3% The Lincoln Lawyer
3/6 4 15.6% 18.0% 2.4% Love & Other Drugs
10/3 4 23.0% 25.5% 2.5% Get Him to the Greek
8/21 4 15.4% 17.9% 2.5% Something Borrowed
11/14 6 19.0% 21.6% 2.6% Grown Ups
5/29 7 23.5% 26.3% 2.8% Gnomeo & Juliet
4/17 8 12.0% 15.2% 3.2% Country Strong
2/27 7 30.2% 33.6% 3.4% Due Date
12/19 10 39.0% 42.5% 3.5% The Town
6/12 7 23.5% 28.1% 4.6% Just Go With It
9/25 6 12.7% 17.4% 4.7% Spooky Buddies
12/19 14 23.0% 27.9% 4.9% Despicable Me
11/28 12 36.7% 46.0% 9.3% The Expendables
7/31 6 20.4% 30.8% 10.3% Source Code
12/19 7 25.0% 36.6% 11.6% The Other Guys
3/20 5 35.2% 47.4% 12.2% The Fighter
12/19 7 34.0% 46.4% 12.4% The A-Team
10/3 11 10.0% 35.5% 25.5% Iron Man 2

bruceames
12-30-2011, 04:08 PM
Well part of that is the longest running titles on the Top 20 Sellers list also are the highest performing titles that also have the largest Blu-ray unit marketshare to begin with and are more likely to also have the largest week one Blu-ray unit marketshare to begin with.

Once again, if you use the percentage change from the initial share, rather than just the difference in share, you'll even the playing field.


Its a self selection bias from the limitation of only using the best performing titles over time that have not dropped off the Top 20 Sellers list and are maintaining 30,000 to 50,000 units per week over time.

It's not a self selection, it's the only selection. I would use below the top 20 if I had access to such data. But it's really not that necessary since I doubt that the Blu-ray share behaves any differently below the top 20 than above, and besides the top 20 is where most of the sales are anyway.

Kosty
12-30-2011, 04:11 PM
Ok Kosty, here you go...

After week 1, here is the same chart. The movies with only 3 records were discarded because we're starting with week 2 instead of week 1.

Overall there still an average (ABS) depreciation of -1.5%, even when starting with week 2.



Thanks.

That does show a bit less attrition in the metric and more stability.

The highest titles that lost the most also had among the highest Blu-ray marketshares in that second week and it seems that that was not sustained in the data set you are working with.

Again thank you for your hard work and the friendly interaction.

I will see what data I can round up and revisit this in detail in the near future.


From my count there I see 27 titles that gained Blu-ray unit marketshare, 28 that declined 2.9% or less, 20 titles 3.0% to 4.9% decline and 17 titles that were more than 5% decline. That's the week 2- infinity change.

That of course is using the limited selection of the titles that showed up on the Top 20 Sellers list. I'll be curious to see what happens to that analysis when I can take the time to expand upon it with the 2010 and 2011 more complete data set that including the BD Title Share information that adds the top 20 highest Blu-ray unit marketshare performing titles to the weekly data. That adds about 10-15 additional titles for each week that we have the Blu-ray unit marketshare for each week in 2010 and 2011.

It will be quicker to do that for the best performing titles of the year at first and we might get that data in the next week of HMM so we might be able to do that sooner.

Kosty
12-30-2011, 04:15 PM
Once again, if you use the percentage change from the initial share, rather than just the difference in share, you'll even the playing field.



It's not a self selection, it's the only selection. I would use below the top 20 if I had access to such data. But it's really not that necessary since I doubt that the Blu-ray share behaves any differently below the top 20 than above, and besides the top 20 is where most of the sales are anyway.

Well like I said we may have that data and it might give a more complete picture over time. The entire point here is to look at the Blu-ray unit marketshare change over time and if we have more weeks to fill in the gaps where the unit volumes were still substantial but failed to meet the Top 20 Sellers threshold cutoff then it still could be a lot of units over time.

You could still be doing 30,000 to 50,000 units or 10,000 to 20,000 units over an extended period of time that would add up to a bunch of units over a sustained period of time and that would not be in the Top 20 Sellers only dataset we are using here today.

bruceames
12-30-2011, 04:16 PM
But once again by taking percentages of percentages you rather exaggerate the impact of the low performing titles.

The absolute change is the true value of impact for the trend.

It's OK to take a percentage of a percentage. Why would it not be?

And it does not exaggerate the impact of low performing titles. On the contrary, it balances it out.

For example, if a title loses 20% of it share, than a 50% share title would go to 40%, while a 20% title would drop to 16%. Both have been impacted proportionally the same. Saying that losing 10% in absolute terms for both titles would have the same impact is absurd. Going from 20% to 10% is a much greater impact than going from 50 to 40%.

Look at it in the extreme case: going from 100% to 90% and from 10% to 0%. Both lost 10% in absolute terms, but did they suffer the same impact? Of course not.