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Time Warner Bewkes recent comments about Netflix

TowerGrove
12-05-2011, 08:42 PM
Not very positive I might add...


Time Warner Head Bearish On Netflix, Bullish On TV Everywhere

There's been a tremendous amount of wishful thinking going on.

Read into that what you will. I take it to mean, broadly, that the notion that Netflix, or Amazon Instant Video for that matter, is the future is a woefully misguided one. When I argue that programmers like Time Warner can just deliver their own content without the middleman, I receive the same response: It's just not in their culture. Guess what? That culture is changing fast.

As Bewkes points out, programmers provide streamers such as Netflix with the scraps, stuff that no longer commands meaningful advertising revenue, "archival content that nobody would want in Blockbuster." It's the programmers who own control of the situation. As companies like CBS (CBS) prove on conference call after conference call, they're effectively using the Netflix's and Amazon's of the world, padding their bottom lines by selling off non-exclusive digital content they cannot monetize elsewhere.

Bewkes might have uttered the quote of the week when he told the FT, regarding Netflix, "Don't turn a hamburger into a cow." In other words, Netflix fills a niche as rerun TV, but don't classify it as or expect it to be much more. Between Netflix's broken business model, fragile cash position and the programmers holding so many of the cards, it's next to impossible for Netflix to do anything other than spend itself into obscurity.

The takeaway here - expect to see the programmers continue to expand their multi-platform offerings, while selling content to Netflix and Amazon that even a true bootlegger would not touch. At some point, they'll even stop selling "archival content," which will put Netflix out of business, once and for all, and stop Amazon's streaming aspirations before they even start.

I fully expect companies like Time Warner to partner with other content providers to create digital interfaces that not only stream fresh programming, but provide considerable subscription and/or advertising revenue. Hulu's owners did the right thing by not selling it; now's the time for them to join together with the rest of the old guard to make Hulu the one-stop-shop for TV Everywhere.

As they continue to diversify their businesses and feel more comfortable shedding the old guard image and becoming "new media" entities, I love the looks of TWX, CBS and DIS, particularly in portfolios with long-term time horizons. Rumors of each company's demise have been greatly exaggerated.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/311908-time-warner-head-bearish-on-netflix-bullish-on-tv-everywhere

PSound
12-05-2011, 08:45 PM
Raise your hand if you truly think Subscription VOD will not be around in 5 years. How about 10?

Tower... do you have any actual opinion on what you are posting? Right now it looks like you are looking for the most outlandish sensationalism and adding them to forums with zero commentary.

TowerGrove
12-05-2011, 08:51 PM
Raise your hand if you truly think Subscription VOD will not be around in 5 years. How about 10?

Tower... do you have any actual opinion on what you are posting? Right now it looks like you are looking for the most outlandish sensationalism and adding them to forums with zero commentary.

What I choose to post is my business. Weather you choose to read it is yours. Its only outlandish and sensational because it doesn't conform to your Narrow viewpoints. Nuff said....

PSound
12-05-2011, 08:54 PM
What I choose to post is my business. Weather you choose to read it is yours. Its only outlandish and sensational because it doesn't conform to your Narrow viewpoints. Nuff said....

What is your analysis of Netflix's business model based on available financials and projections?

TowerGrove
12-05-2011, 08:55 PM
What is your analysis of Netflix's business model based on available financials and projections?

Again I feel its on a slippery slope for 2012. Again my opinion.

PSound
12-05-2011, 08:57 PM
Again I feel its on a slippery slope for 2012. Again my opinion.

Explain that opinion based on known financials and projections.

TowerGrove
12-05-2011, 09:04 PM
Explain that opinion based on known financials and projections.

Again its my gut feeling that 2012 will be a down year for netflix as a whole. They will be in the red for 2012. This had been published many time in the financial news stories lately.

Recently their credit rating was dropped and some of the better known analysts are telling people not to hold the stock but to sell.

The company is so poorly run that Reed was listed as worst CEO in a recent The Street poll. Not the image they should be portraying.

PSound
12-05-2011, 09:09 PM
Again its my gut feeling that 2012 will be a down year for netflix as a whole. They will be in the red for 2012. This had been published many time in the financial news stories lately.

Recently their credit rating was dropped and some of the better known analysts are telling people not to hold the stock but to sell.

The company is so poorly run that Reed was listed as worst CEO in a recent The Street poll. Not the image they should be portraying.

So please explain your understanding of their financials.

I ask because there are other analysts who have posted other opinions, and ones who have had far more centrist views and been correct far more often on Netflixs actual performance. Even those who have acknowledged the mistakes Netflix have made this year (and there have been big ones) generally demonstrate a different take on the future of Netflix and of SVOD.


I want to know your personal insights and understandings, as simply posting the most sensational views is really not all that interesting. As this is a discussion forum, I would like to know the actual level of your understanding.

bruceames
12-05-2011, 10:00 PM
What I choose to post is my business. Weather you choose to read it is yours. Its only outlandish and sensational because it doesn't conform to your Narrow viewpoints. Nuff said....

Keep them coming Tower, they are appreciated by many of us here. :hithere: :D

luclin999
12-06-2011, 03:14 AM
Keep them coming Tower, they are appreciated by many of us here. :hithere: :D

Yes they most certainly are despite the appearances to the contrary by some people who seem to be attempting to silence "opinions" and statements from leaders in the entertainment industry which may differ from their own.

TowerGrove
12-06-2011, 06:44 AM
Keep them coming Tower, they are appreciated by many of us here. :hithere: :D

Thank you. :angel

mikemorel
12-06-2011, 08:14 AM
Not very positive I might add...


Time Warner Head Bearish On Netflix, Bullish On TV Everywhere

As Bewkes points out, programmers provide streamers such as Netflix with the scraps, stuff that no longer commands meaningful advertising revenue, "archival content that nobody would want in Blockbuster."
...
...they're effectively using the Netflix's and Amazon's of the world, padding their bottom lines by selling off non-exclusive digital content they cannot monetize elsewhere.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/311908-time-warner-head-bearish-on-netflix-bullish-on-tv-everywhereWhat the author (and Bewkes, for that matter) doesn't seem to understand is that these scraps, taken on their own are not appealing. But if you tie 20,000 pieces of archival content together, add in Indie titles and documentaries, refresh it every so often, and you've got a service that is worth $7.99 a month to 20 million homes. And every hour a pair of eyeballs are watching long tail "non-monetizable scraps" is an hour not spent purchasing hot new releases like Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2.

For now at least.

PSound
12-06-2011, 08:51 AM
What the author (and Bewkes, for that matter) doesn't seem to understand is that these scraps, taken on their own are not appealing. But if you tie 20,000 pieces of archival content together, add in Indie titles and documentaries, refresh it every so often, and you've got a service that is worth $7.99 a month to 20 million homes. And every hour a pair of eyeballs are watching long tail "non-monetizable scraps" is an hour not spent purchasing hot new releases like Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2.

For now at least.

What anyone reading comments from Bewkes has to realize is that Netflix streaming and HBO (and Starz for that matter) are more similar than not.

Neither has all the content.

HBO has releases from WB and Fox in the Pay TV window.

Netflix has releases from Paramount, MGM and Lionsgate (plue a handful of independents) during the Pay TV window.


The difference is in how they reach their customers. HBO requires you to go through cable or satt. A model that means their addressable customers are shrinking.

Netflix streaming requires you have a credit or debit card and a broadband connection. A model that means their addressable customers are increasing.


And Bewkes is well aware of the above.

PSound
12-06-2011, 09:35 AM
What I choose to post is my business. Weather you choose to read it is yours. Its only outlandish and sensational because it doesn't conform to your Narrow viewpoints. Nuff said....

To be clear...

I like to have counter discussion. Particularly when new data is brought to the table or presented in a unique or new way.

And articles being brought into spur that conversation is wonderful.


But I don't see as much value in plastering the board with articles that someone is not willing to discuss at some level of detail. What is the point?

What I am saying is that my ideal would be for you to read this (and all articles on topics of interest to you) and develop a position that you are open and capable of discussing in detail. That is when these boards are great.

Kosty
12-06-2011, 03:19 PM
Explain that opinion based on known financials and projections.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/pachter-says-netflix-plan-to-raise-cash-terrible-deal/2011/11/21/gIQA5frqjN_video.html

Kosty
12-06-2011, 03:25 PM
To be clear...

I like to have counter discussion. Particularly when new data is brought to the table or presented in a unique or new way.

And articles being brought into spur that conversation is wonderful.


But I don't see as much value in plastering the board with articles that someone is not willing to discuss at some level of detail. What is the point?

What I am saying is that my ideal would be for you to read this (and all articles on topics of interest to you) and develop a position that you are open and capable of discussing in detail. That is when these boards are great.

Your issue is her posting articles from seekingalpha a source that you have used yourself on interesting articles about Netflix?

Why does she or anyone else need to know Netflix financials and business model in detail when she is bring up interesting articles for discussion when its quoting experts that know more about those details than anyone else?

Just because anyone does not have your level of expertise in the manner does not mean that your viewpoint on those matters would not be appreciated and acknowledged.

Just because you personally disagree with the premise or its saying something negative that you do not like to hear about Netflix seems to be a poor reason to confront her on her motivations or her expertise on Netflix financials.

PSound
12-06-2011, 03:32 PM
Your issue is her posting articles from seekingalpha a source that you have used yourself on interesting articles about Netflix?

Why does she or anyone else need to know Netflix financials and business model in detail when she is bring up interesting articles for discussion when its quoting experts that know more about those details than anyone else?

Just because anyone does not have your level of expertise in the manner does not mean that your viewpoint on those matters would not be appreciated and acknowledged.

Just because you personally disagree with the premise or its saying something negative that you do not like to hear about Netflix seems to be a poor reason to confront her on her motivations or her expertise on Netflix financials.

Hi Kosty... how's life treating ya?

I am calling for discussion around an assertion. This is a discussion board after all. If the topic is important to make multiple threads in one day on the topic, one would expect it was important enough for someone to be able to participate in a discussion on the topic (the topic being Netflix business and financials).

I am guessing you would ask for the same if someone posted a myriad of articles proclaiming the fall of OD, or the beneficiary of OD (Cinram). Indeed, I have observed you decry lack of supporting information for things as obvious (and trivial) as pointing out that 3 years ago studios did not expect Home Video sales to be as low as they are today.

Kosty
12-06-2011, 04:54 PM
Hi Kosty... how's life treating ya?

I am calling for discussion around an assertion. This is a discussion board after all. If the topic is important to make multiple threads in one day on the topic, one would expect it was important enough for someone to be able to participate in a discussion on the topic (the topic being Netflix business and financials).

I am guessing you would ask for the same if someone posted a myriad of articles proclaiming the fall of OD, or the beneficiary of OD (Cinram). Indeed, I have observed you decry lack of supporting information for things as obvious (and trivial) as pointing out that 3 years ago studios did not expect Home Video sales to be as low as they are today.

Well and you?

Good to see your viewpoint and perspective around the ether. I appreciate what you have to say on these subjects.

Not everyone has as much time or freedom in business or in their personal life to be as active or interactive in discussion as you and I have the opportunity or privilege to be in our lifestyle and professional life or can be online as much as we can usually manage online. Or have the personality for doing so.

So its not a surprise that everyone cannot post or go back and forth as you and I can manage, few normal people can or would want to do so.

BTW, I do not think that the studios did think back two or three years ago that the situation with the economy or Redbox kiosks or Netflix DVD by mail rentals or streaming or packaged media sellthrough or digital sales would be where they were today.

The Great Recession in particular was hard to predict but the studios are trying everything they can to have all of the revenue streams together contribute to replacing as much as they can the lucrative cash cow that DVD was at its peak. They are trying everything they can to adjust to a new world in every way they can.

But I find any and all articles that everyone posts including Towergrove mikemorel and you all very interesting and many times they are detailed enough to speak for themselves and trigger interesting discussions without assuming the OP or contributor agrees with them fully or is willing or able to defend the premise or point of view of the article or writer themselves.

At any rate take care and I am glad you are well.

I appreciate your commentary and viewpoint so I am glad you are around.

So long for now.