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Old 12-22-2007, 09:35 PM   #54  
Chris Gerhard
High Definition is the definition of life.
 
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Join Date: Nov 2005
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobY View Post
Wow Chris, your Blu Filter is so intense I'm not sure anything can penetrate it intact.

You attribute so many opinions to me in your last post that have absolutely nothing to do with anything I've ever said that I'm at a loss to address them all. You really don't listen to people's points, you instantly misinterpret them into what you want to think they are saying and then respond with something that has nothing to do with what was said.

I really can't be bothered to correct your multiple incorrect representations of my comments. Anyone who has read my previous posts knows what I think on these various topics.

I'll simply leave you with this:

No PS3 owner (except maybe you) is afraid to buy BD discs because of the format war. They are not concerned if their PS3 dies and there are no more Blu-Ray players on the market, that they will be stuck with unplayable movies any more than they are concerned if their PS3 dies and there are no more game consoles on the market that plays PS3 games, that they will be stuck with unplayable games.

If they were worried about that, they wouldn't have bought a PS3 in the first place, knowing full well the PS3 may fail (as it is failing against the XBox 360 and Wii) and that any future replacement for the PS3 will not likely play PS3 games any more than the current PS3's play PS2 games.

Maybe I don't speak for PS3 owner's, but it's certain you don't (you said you haven't even tried gaming with it yet!) and every metric one could possibly use to measure the PS3 proves that.
I discuss the previous formats because I believe the previous formats are relevant to this format war and the results so far parallel almost exactly the results of the previous format war, SACD/DVD-A. Universal was neutral and Warner exclusive DVD-A and other specifics are certainly different but the results that one was doing better but neither could gain a market sufficient for profits looks exactly the same. If Blu-ray can gain any traction, I expect Sony to completely abandon further SACD releases and focus on Blu-ray for audio, video and games. You don't own a PS3 and I going to bet I am the only PS3 owner that has suggested to you that I won't buy much software until the format war is over and Blu-ray prevails and if Blu-ray doesn't prevail, I am never going to buy much Blu-ray software except at giveaway prices. I am also going to suggest that you don't know even one PS3 owner that has said he will buy all the software he can because he isn't scared of the format war causing the format to fail. There may be some PS3 owners that feel that way, but I don't even know one like that. You keep on trying to suggest that PS3 owners aren't going to buy Blu-ray software regardless and I disagree, I think for a number of reasons, once the format war is over and Blu-ray starts to grow, many PS3 owners are going to pick up the pace. More releases, no confusion or reluctance to own software will be a big impetus.

You have said that Blu-ray isn't gaining any ground. I don't know specific figures but early in the 2007, a good week for Blu-ray was about 50,000 software units sold in a week and for HD DVD was about half that or 25,000 software units sold in a week in the US. I believe right now, a good week, the last couple specifically, have been about 200,000 for Blu-ray and about 100,000 for HD DVD. Although the ratios are still the same, the gap has grown from 25,000 to 100,000. I would consider that means Blu-ray is in fact gaining much ground. Personally, I don't believe even the far better recent results are anywhere near the level necessary for profits. The sales for one of these formats may need to be 1,000,000 a week, maybe more, I don't know to actually generate any profits. Of course sales price is also important and the lower the software prices, the greater the sales volume and the lower the profits are per unit. Manufactured quantity and manufacturing costs are important as well. We have a lot of missing pieces to really pin down at what volumes these products can become profitable, so I don't know that precisely, I just don't believe we are anywhere near that volume yet. I would have to look at an average sales week for DVD in the US, I have forgotten and don't want to find it now. Let's just say it is 15,000,000 per week, I don't care if it is 10,000,000 or 30,000,000 really, it is huge compared to anything we have seen from these new formats, we all know that.

Chris
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