Thread going round and round
We are not really getting anywhere with this thread. Chris honestly believes that if HD-DVD went away, BD would surge ahead because the uncertainty caused by the format war would end. My take and that of several others here is that it would make almost no difference in BD sales overall.
I actually think the focus on the war HURTS both sides. Let me give you an imperfect analogy. Lets suppose that there are three car companies in the USA: Lotus (BD) with an average price of $250,000, Ferrari (HD-DVD) with an average price of $150,000 and Chevy (SD-DVD) with an average price of $20,000. Cars sold last year: Lotus 300, Ferrari 500, Chevy 10,000,000.
Using the current attitudes in this thread, Lotus would focus it's energies on beating Ferrari and rejoice when it finally won, only to find sales jumped from 300 to 800. Why? Because their frickin cars cost too much for the average consumer. They didn't solve the problem (price) which is what was holding them back in the first place.
If BD beats HD-DVD, their players are still too expensive for Joe Public, the movies are too expensive and it will remain the niche product it is till prices come down. Shoot, if BD beat SD-DVD and movies were ONLY AVAILABLE IN BD, most movies would sit on the shelf unsold because Joe Public is not going to pay $299 (latest sale price) for a BD player and he is not going to pay $24.99 (cheapest BB price) for a movie.
In one of our elections, the catch phrase was "it's the economy, stupid!". The catch phrase here should be "it's the price, stupid!". If BD players were $100 and movies priced the same as SD-DVDs, there wouldn't be a war even if HD-DVD and SD-DVD were still around. And if the prices don't come down, BD will remain a nich product.
Same, BTW, applies to HD-DVD.