Originally Posted by SLedford
Lets suppose that HD-DVD immediately agrees to stop production and puts 100% of it's resources behind BD. All studios line up behind BD. All stores agree to stock only BD high def movies. This is exactly what Chris is proposing, and I am saying it would not make much of a difference.
Do sales of players and disks go up? A little. I know several HD television owners who are waiting out the format war, and they might jump in. I wouldn't buy a BD player till a 2.0 BD player is available, but I am going to do that anyway, regardless of the status of the war.
But what about John Q. Public? Does the fact that BD is the only high def format available make him want to go out and buy a $399 player for his analog television? No.
The truth of the matter is that one format right now really doesn't make much difference because the real war is against SD-DVDs.
It doesn't matter who started the war. It doesn't matter if there is one or two (or three or four) high def formats. What does matter is high def television percentages in the general population and player / movie pricing.
Lets make one more assumption, just for fun. Lets assume that the government GIVES every family in the nation a 50" HD television. Gives it to them. Lets also assume that the government GIVES each family a BD player. Will BD movie sales go up? Yes some, but it will still get it's butt kicked by SD DVD because John Q. Public can buy new releases for CHEAPER than BD movies. He can get older movies for $5.99 on sale all day, and is not going to pay $24.99 at BB for the same movie.
You can read the polls at various sites, I don't recall ever seeing even a single poll that hasn't indicted more that 50% of the potential market responding to the poll has selected the option wait for the format war to end before getting involved. If you think this pitiful market is all these formats can do even if only one exists, I completely disagree. I don't know the upside, but the market grows by multiples quickly if HD DVD disappears is my opinion. Since DVD is still 97% of the market, the second most common response was continue to use DVD because it is good enough. I do know there is a huge group that doesn't even bother to inquire about these new formats and will continue with DVD regardless, but I am certain with HDTV I believe in close to 40% of homes in the US already, an HD disc format would be doing a lot better without the confusion and reluctance being caused by this format war.
It was also clear recently that a percentage of the group that was waiting did go ahead and buy an inexpensive HD DVD player with the crazy low prices, I just don't think that group is going to buy many discs unless the format war ends.