DVD vs. Blu-ray sell-through revenue growth curves.
Launches aligned. Year 1 is 1997 for DVD and 2006 for Blu-ray. Year 7 is 2003 for DVD and 2012 for Blu-ray.
Notice that in the first 4 years the growth curves are fairly similar, but then diverge greatly after that.
Also note DVD's peak occurs in 3 more years, with $4.5 billion more in growth, while that of Blu-ray is already starting to flatten out.
The year 7 growth for BLu-ray is to the end of this year and is projected to be at 9.1% growth over last year. So it may change slightly depending on how well/poorly Blu-ray does over the last 11 weeks (under flat YoY box office power conditions).
