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Old 06-07-2012, 10:45 AM   #3168  
bruceames
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post


That's distorting what I said. I never said only.

The strength of the Blu-ray favorable releases is clearly a better correlative factor to the Blu-ray sales statistics than box office strength that's in the overall cumulative TBO total from non favorable genres to Blu-ray like romantic comedies and other things with lower BD share.
Fair enough, but you did imply that the BO of the more favorable Blu-ray genres are more representative, and you just confirmed that above.

However that's not really true. The TBO includes all genres and the true effect is somewhere in the middle. Besides, we are comparing mixed genres from last year to mixed genres to this year. Cherry pick all you want but it's really misleading to state that the box office of Blu-ray favorable genres is more representative of the TBO, because it is an extreme. Comedy and family is the other extreme.
One extreme is not more representative that the other, thus they both need to be included in the pool to get an average and most accurate representation.


Quote:
Its also distorting and non predictive. You just cannot ignore that some titles have more impact than others and its simplistic to just add up all the tiny numbers together. Then you wonder why it does not match the observed results.

The total TBO is an important metric to follow to be sure but you cannot ignore other considerations, such as major tentpoles or genre.
Some titles have more, others have less. But by focusing on primarily the "more", just end up with a distorted viewpoint. I prefer not to go there and focus on the forest and not just the bigger trees.

Quote:
All are factors to consider and observing them as part of the analysis is not "cherry picking" especially if some of those factors explain the observations better than your simple all inclusive gross metrics.
Yes it is cherry picking. My "all inclusive gross metrics" includes the good and the bad (as far as genre favorable or high-low BO titles is concerned). How you think focusing only on the top titles is more representative than focusing on the whole group is beyond me.

Quote:
Over time the total TBO metric will converge with those other factors as more and more releases occur in the year and things even out.
Things have evened out. TBO is even for the year. Your claim that the genre mix is more favorable to BLu-ray this year than last is false. Perhaps what you mean by "evened out" is when the TBO is back up 5-10% YoY like it was in the first quarter?

Last edited by bruceames; 06-07-2012 at 11:01 AM..
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