80% T20 revenue share seems too high to me. BD's revenue average this year is $36 million, so 20% of that is only $7.3 million. $7.3 million as a base just seems too low. A 30% base would be $10.8 million and that sounds more reasonable to me.
Look where DVD would be if Blu-ray T20 were at 80%. As the average BD T20 unit marketshare is 36% (probably higher than that because it's higher on the high volume weeks), a reasonable revenue share would be 36% * 1.25 = 45%. Now remember this 45% is on the conservative side, as it's probably a little higher and maybe as high as 50%.
So if DVD's average T20 revenue share is around 55%, then its average T20 revenue is (55%/45%) * (80% * $36 million) = $35 million.
And as DVD's average total revenue is $118 million, then the T20 share percentage of that is $35/$118 = 29.6%, or around 30%.
That's why I think Blu-ray's T20 share is closer to 70% then to 80%. If DVD is only 30%, then it would seem too extreme for Blu-ray to be at 80%. Just common sense to me.
Last edited by bruceames; 03-30-2012 at 08:59 AM..