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Old 02-17-2012, 11:49 AM   #1565  
bruceames
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Location: Novato, CA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cakefoo
Box office power matters, but more importantly, RELEASES matter. What's the difference? Box office power only takes into account movies released in January that had a box office presence. December home video releases, limited theatrical releases, DTV releases, and catalog releases don't add to the BO power tally. If they did 2011 would be far more even with 2012 in terms of release strength. Also, there were a couple 2012 BO releases (Courageous and Paranormal Activity 3) that were in genres that either don't convert well to Blu-ray (courageous) or don't sell as much in proportion to their bo on home video period (Paranormal Activity)
You're right that the December box office was more of a factor, but catalogs and DTV were very prevalent in 2011 as well.

Using just the Nielsen First Alert ratios, I grouped the release types into five different categories, and determine the weight of each for the first five weeks of this year and last.

BD-1: new theatrical release week 1.

BD-2-4:new theatrical weeks 2-4

BD-5-8: new theatrical weeks 5-8

BD-9-26 new theatrical weeks 9-26

BD-nonBD everything else. DTV, catalog reissues (such as To Kill a Mockingbird), new theatrical over 26 weeks old (now considered as catalog, due to their being over 6 months old), TV, music, etc).

The sixth column is the average BD top 20 share for the week (from the OD table.

The first sets of figures are the difference between this year and last, and the top row is the average (not the weighted average, because I didn't use The-Numbers to weight them, as that info is too unreliable). The ratios are from the BLu-ray top 20, not the OD top 20.

Using the row highlighted in red as an example:

52% = 52% of unit sales that week came from new theatrical titles that were just released

18.7% = 18.7% of unit sales from new theatrical titles released 2-4 weeks ago.

etc.



Code:
Week	Date	BD-1	BD-2-4	BD-5-8	BD-9-26	BD-nonBO BD share
							
tot	diff	10.9%	-9.7%	-4.7%	4.6%	-1.1%	5.2%
							
5	diff	43.8%	-15.7%	-9.7%	-2.1%	-16.4%	12.9%
4	diff	-4.1%	6.6%	-5.4%	2.0%	1.0%	12.1%
3	diff	11.8%	-15.8%	-2.3%	-2.6%	8.9%	0.4%
2	diff	5.1%	-3.4%	-14.6%	0.6%	12.3%	-5.2%
1	diff	-2.1%	-20.1%	8.4%	25.2%	-11.4%	5.9%
							
tot	ave	45.0%	15.1%	15.6%	11.8%	12.6%	38.4%

5	2/5/12	52.0%	18.7%	0.0%	12.5%	16.8%	42.2%
4	1/29/12	66.9%	15.0%	6.0%	4.8%	7.5%	45.4%
3	1/22/12	39.1%	10.1%	27.9%	4.9%	18.0%	30.5%
2	1/15/12	40.6%	10.1%	23.7%	9.0%	16.6%	38.3%
1	1/8/12	26.3%	21.6%	20.5%	27.8%	3.9%	35.8%
							
tot	ave	34.1%	24.8%	20.3%	7.2%	13.7%	33.2%

5	2/6/11	8.2%	34.3%	9.7%	14.6%	33.2%	29.4%
4	1/30/11	71.0%	8.4%	11.3%	2.8%	6.5%	33.4%
3	1/23/11	27.3%	25.9%	30.2%	7.5%	9.1%	30.0%
2	1/16/11	35.5%	13.5%	38.3%	8.4%	4.4%	43.4%
1	1/9/11	28.4%	41.7%	12.0%	2.6%	15.3%	29.9%
.
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