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Old 01-03-2012, 11:06 PM   #872  
bruceames
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: Novato, CA
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To illustrate how large the seasonal component is, here are the weeks where Blu-ray last year had over $300 million BO power

Code:
Date  boxoffice BDrevenue
24-Dec	303.6	109.2
17-Dec	635.3	99.3
10-Dec	535.6	77.5
4/23	841.3	64.9
3-Dec	496.0	59.2
5-Nov	414.9	49.0
3/26	335.6	45.3
4/2	461.1	39.9
1-Oct	382.7	39.8
19-Nov	359.0	39.1
6/4	386.8	36.1
3/19	534.3	35.9
1) The top 3 weeks were the 3 weeks before Christmas

2) The top week had less than 1/2 the BO power as the second best week, just because it was the week before Christmas.

3) most of the weeks in that list were from Q4

The top week, which featured "Salt", probably would have done less than $40 million, were it in a non-seasonal week. But let's give it $40 to be generous anyway. Probably 1/2 of those sales are base (floor) sales, so that leaves about $20-25 million in new release power.

So, that means of that $109 million last year, probably about $85 million or so was seasonal. And if Blu-ray is, say, a 20% growth format under parity conditions, then $85 million x 1.2 = $102 in just seasonal sales alone.

But is Blu-ray really a 20% growth format at this point? Or is it less than that?
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