Lol, I was talking a little smack when I said that. But even though I believe new release revenue is declining like everything else, I'm not going to make assumptions on others that they're lying, if they believe otherwise. And even if I felt that way I'd keep it to myself because after all, calling someone a liar is a personal attack. It's better to attack the argument. Besides, a lot of the disagreement is merely differences in semantics.
You define sustained OD revenue as meaning sustained conversion rates, and honestly I disagree with that. Sure, conversion rates is the only tool available to those who don't have access to inside info. But it doesn't take a genius to figure out that the model is flawed because it doesn't account that ticket prices need to go up to cover rising overhead while OD prices can remain flat while maintaining the same margins as before (some costs do go up but others go down). So you're not getting apples to apples anymore.
That's cool, as long as one can recognize that flaw in the model and give it its due consideration (if they think it's still worth using at that point).
No question though that studios are hurting and OD losses are a big part of that. But bigger budgets are probably just as big a reason or even more, and I also suspect that box office profits may be down even though revenue may be up. The last 10 years box office is only up 10% and we all know that theater expenses have risen much more than that.