You have hit it on the head. I am only replacing my first bulb but fear it is the first of many. I would not have this fear if the bulb had been replaced in an acceptable time period. I have been waiting over 2 weeks and was told yesterday it would be another 2 weeks. Last week a customer service rep told me they have been back orderd for a month. It seems obvious to me there is a problem when 1 particular part cannot be kept in stock on a model that was just released in September. I have already missed the Super Bowl and Olympics and will now miss the Daytona 500 and for me that sucks.
We will never know the failure rate of these bulbs unless a class action suit is brought against them because there is no way in hell they would want that information out there for public knowledge.