9 reasons why Blu-ray will succeed

Bravestime · 01-14-2009, 07:31 PM

Quote:

I've been seeing a lot of articles lately about Blu-ray's fuzzy future, how it's doomed, and how its success will be short-lived even if it does take off. Well, that may well end up being the case, but I gotta say, from where I'm sitting, there's a far greater probability that Blu-ray will do just fine--for a long time. And I'm not saying that because I'm a fanboy or a shill for Sony. I'm saying it because a lot of simple market factors point toward it doing just fine. Here are nine reasons why I'm right.

1. Digital downloads will not eliminate the need for discs anytime soon.

Let's address this first since this is the biggest factor that people cite when trumpeting Blu-ray's defeat. If you haven't noticed, here at CNET we spend a good amount of time covering new streaming video platforms and services and really enjoy testing these new products. Everything from Hulu to Netflix streaming video to Slingbox to Apple TV to Vudu all show promise. That said, all these products have some limiting factors, including lack of content selection, pricing hurdles, and most particularly, bandwidth issues, which affect video and audio quality.

Case in point: The other night I was running Netflix's video streaming service on my Xbox 360. I fired up the movie, The Adventures of Baron Von Munchausen on a large rear-projection TV. It looked like crap. How crappy? Well, bad enough for my wife to say, "Get that off the screen right now." (The hazard of watching virtually everything in HD is that everyone in your household over the age of 7 becomes a video snob).

Next, I tried The Wiggles to better results. The program had brighter scenes and less movement, so the picture wasn't quite as soft and pixelated. My 5-year-old could handle it just fine. However, I had to leave the room after 5 minutes in extreme pain. (It was due to the content, not video quality. Man, that's some bad music).

Now, I'm sure folks who've got Verizon's Fios installed in their homes are getting a much better picture when they stream their Netflix video. But I'm dealing with cable internet from Time Warner in Manhattan and while it's acceptable for streaming video onto a 22-inch computer monitor, the pipe really isn't fat enough for blowing things up too far beyond a 32-inch set without things getting pretty fuzzy. (Our video guru, David Katzmaier says he's happy with the bandwidth he's getting from Time Warner in Brooklyn, but he says he, too, runs into some pretty rough pictures, especially those that involve a lot of action sequences).

I can't see Time Warner and other cable Internet providers suddenly delivering more bandwidth anytime soon (if anything, my connection seems to have gotten worse in recent months). DSL is even worse in a lot of cases--unless you're willing to pay ridiculous rates for top-of-the-line bandwidth offerings, which are usually geared toward businesses not consumers. And there's also plenty of talk about ISPs throttling back on bandwidth to police illegal downloads of music and yes, movie and TV shows.

The incoming Obama administration is reportedly going to be offering incentives to providers for building out broadband offerings and increasing bandwidth (eventually, anyway). Whether that has any impact or not, I still think we're a good 3-5 years away before the pipes really get fat enough for many of these IPTV/ streaming video services to reach their full potential and move from niche to mainstream status. In that time prices for both Blu-ray players and discs will look a lot like what you see today on their DVD brethren (see reasons #4 and #5).

2. Having one clear standard is a big advantage.

One of the problems with digital video streaming and downloads is that there's no standard for the industry to coalesce around. It's all a hodgepodge of stuff with various factions competing against each other with the consumers stuck in the middle of it all. That will slow adoption.

3. Blu-ray isn't going to be replaced by another disc format anytime soon.

When both Blu-ray and HD-DVD were in the midst of their little battle for the right to be crowned winner of the next-generation DVD format wars, there was lots of chatter about skipping this generation of disc technology and moving on to something that offered capacity beyond the 50GB you could store on Blu-ray discs. My favorite was "holographic storage," discs, which could carry like 10 times the amount of data.

The problem is, no one's got the money or marketing power of Sony and its allies to bring out a new disc format, even if it is technically better. Also, Blu-ray is plenty good enough and will be for the next five years, if not longer, especially when they start adding special layers and all that fun stuff companies do to eke more out of a technology.

Yeah, Blu-ray's got plenty of downside competition from DVD, but there's no upside pressure coming anytime soon from some higher-end format. This is it for a while, folks. Blu-ray is the de-facto standard for high-definition discs.

4. Prices for large-screen HDTVs will continue to drop.

Yes, we're dealing with a serious recession here. But people are still buying HDTVs (maybe not as many, but there are certain necessities in life, and a good TV is one of them; it's the American way). And with prices becoming more affordable for sets 50 inches or bigger, you've got a growing base of installed users who are ultimately going to want to get the best picture they can out of their TVs. Eventually, DVD isn't going to cut it for people with large-screen TVs. And at the end of the day, Blu-ray looks significantly better than DVD--or pretty much anything else, including most HDTV broadcasts--on TVs 50 inches or bigger.

5. Prices for Blu-ray players will continue to drop.

By this time next year, there will be several sub-$100 Blu-ray players on the market. Once you get to those price points it becomes much more of a no-brainer for consumers to purchase a Blu-ray player. Yes, you 'll be able to buy a decent DVD player for $60. But if you tell someone you can have a player that plays back "HD" discs and DVDs, he or she will think hard about shelling out the extra cash. And it will also help if...

6. Prices for Blu-ray discs will drop to near DVD price levels.

In a small number of cases, we're already finding examples of Blu-ray versions of movies that cost virtually the same as their DVD counterparts. In the coming months, you'll see the prices for Blu-ray discs gradually drop with the gap between Blu-ray and DVD prices narrowing. They have to. This is how businesses work. You get the cost of production down to the point where you can spur demand and still manage to turn a tidy profit.

While people aren't going to buy as many Blu-ray discs as they did DVDs (plenty will rent from Netflix and other outlets), they're still going to buy some. Given the choice of renting an HD movie on demand for $6 and buying the disc for $15-$20, you're going to get your share of folks buying a tangible, physical product. And let's not forget that the price for watching movies in theaters is getting ridiculous ($12.50 per person here in Manhattan). Buying a pristine copy of the movie for $15-$20 is going to seem like a bargain, especially for a family of four--or more.

7. Sony will sell lots of PlayStation 3 game consoles.

As Sony trims the price on its PS3, it will sell more of them. Many more. And every PS3 has a Blu-ray player in it (and we still think it's the best player out there). This has always been Sony's Trojan horse for the platform. Don't forget it.

8. Sony can't afford to have Blu-ray fail.

Sony won the war with HD DVD, and now it's got to take that win to the bank. Sony and its partners will do everything in their power to make it succeed. That's a lot of marketing juice.

9. Sony and its partners will figure out a way to have Blu-ray resonate with the public.

In several market research studies, Blu-ray has run into a basic problem: a high percentage of consumers don't understand just what Blu-ray is and what it does for them.

I always liked the name HD DVD better than Blu-ray because I thought the name translated better to the average consumer. Some argue that Blu-ray is a better name because it connotes something new and different (and presumably better). Well, when you have people misspelling your brand's name (Blue Ray), you have a problem.

I would encourage Sony to embark on a whimsical, self-deprecating ad campaign that educates consumers about its platform and teaches them how to spell its product correctly. As we used to say here at CNET--whenever we saw our site incorrectly referred to as c-net, C|Net, or CNet--spelling is telling. When everybody knows how to spell Blu-ray correctly, the format will be a success. I'll bet my old HD DVD collection on it.

As always, feel free to agree or disagree with me and list your reasons you think Blu-ray will make it, fade away, or muddle about in a place between success and failure, forever eliciting praise and criticism.

Link: http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-18438_7-10142913-82.html

scsa · 01-14-2009, 07:33 PM

how long do you think it will take for Lee to post a negative in here two minutes or longer?

Bravestime · 01-14-2009, 07:50 PM

I thought he made some good points. Very interesting read.

ack_bak · 01-14-2009, 07:52 PM

Nice read. I think he is echoing what many of us have been saying for sometime.

Bravestime · 01-14-2009, 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ack_bak

Nice read. I think he is echoing what many of us have been saying for sometime.

Agree.

One thing he makes a good point on is the fact Sony has invested a great deal in Blu-ray and I see Sony doing whatever it takes, to a limit of course, to make Blu-ray successful. Successful, may not mean it has to take over DVD.

scsa · 01-14-2009, 08:06 PM

its a great article.

loganhunter200 · 01-14-2009, 08:38 PM

I'm waiting for #6 to happen. People have been saying this since last year. So far, new releases are still 30 bucks. I've stop buying new releases on DVDs and Blu ray since Oct 08. With the recession getting worse, I hope to see them drop the price soon.

HD Goofnut · 01-14-2009, 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by loganhunter200

I'm waiting for #6 to happen. People have been saying this since last year. So far, new releases are still 30 bucks. I've stop buying new releases on DVDs and Blu ray since Oct 08. With the recession getting worse, I hope to see them drop the price soon.

I have had the same habit for quite some time as well unless I can grab a new release for closer to $20.

ack_bak · 01-14-2009, 08:52 PM

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Originally Posted by HD Goofnut

I have had the same habit for quite some time as well unless I can grab a new release for closer to $20.

I have found that if you wait a few weeks until after release week you can usually get a good deal.

That said, there is no way I am waiting past release week for Quantum Of Solace

I am willing to shell out $25-28 on release week for it as it was one of the better movies I had seen in awhile. But I am also a Bond fan..

Bravestime · 01-14-2009, 09:01 PM

I try to wait for sales on most movies, but there are a handful I had to have NOW. Such movies was TDK, Ironman and The Godfather. Sometimes you just have to pay the fiddler to dance.

**bruceames** · 01-14-2009, 09:24 PM

1) Digital downloads are getting more popular. That's a fact. Digital downloads will be getting more convenient and with better quality over time. That's a given. Like it or not, Blu-ray has to compete with that, which is basically competing with something more convenient (having the movie immediately without leaving your chair) and better and better quality over time (Blu-ray will always have the same quality). People will always want to own movies, but optical discs are already getting rather quaint and the glory days are coming to a close (pretty much already has with CD).

2. Having one standard is an advantage if you have a monetary interest in Blu-ray having no competition from other sourcing streams. Blu-ray really has no competition from anything optical except DVD. It sounds as if the author wants to petition against downloads or anything that would take away from a Blu-ray sale. Fortunately the average consumer prefers to have options of downloading or buying/renting a movie. Blu-ray will just have to succeed on its own merits, and not by having downloads or whatever fold up and go away because its soooo unfair.

4) True. That's the real Trojan Horse, HDTV adoption. Nothing else. Period.

5)

6) They sold a lot of PSPs, too.

7) Really reaching here. What's Sony gonna do, buy another studio? Stop releasing their movies on DVD? They've had failed formats before. Every company wants their products/formats to succeed, and BLu-ray probably will. But it won't be because they 'won't let it fail', but rather because they've already sacrificed their gaming franchise. Hope it was worth it.

9) Typical zealot sentiment.

This whole article is amateurish fanboy fluff. He should've just said reason 4 and left it at that.

DonnyDC · 01-14-2009, 09:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruceames

1) Digital downloads are getting more popular. That's a fact. Digital downloads will be getting more convenient and with better quality over time. That's a given. Like it or not, Blu-ray has to compete with that, which is basically competing with something more convenient (having the movie immediately without leaving your chair) and better and better quality over time (Blu-ray will always have the same quality). People will always want to own movies, but optical discs are already getting rather quaint and the glory days are coming to a close (pretty much already has with CD).

His point was that it wont be taking off 'anytime soon.' You havent said anything to disagree with that.

Quote:

2. Having one standard is an advantage if you have a monetary interest in Blu-ray having no competition from other sourcing streams. Blu-ray really has no competition from anything optical except DVD. It sounds as if the author wants to petition against downloads or anything that would take away from a Blu-ray sale. Fortunately the average consumer prefers to have options of downloading or buying/renting a movie. Blu-ray will just have to succeed on its own merits, and not by having downloads or whatever fold up and go away because its soooo unfair.

Wow that was the only advantage you saw in having one standard? How about being able to lend movies and having movies play on different brand name devices.

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5)

And the competition? obviously no one is waiting for the price of Apple TV to go down.

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7) Really reaching here. What's Sony gonna do, buy another studio? Stop releasing their movies on DVD? They've had failed formats before. Every company wants their products/formats to succeed, and BLu-ray probably will. But it won't be because they 'won't let it fail', but rather because they've already sacrificed their gaming franchise. Hope it was worth it.

Yup but like you said they didnt 'sacrifice' their gaming franchise for it.

Quote:

9) Typical zealot sentiment.

This whole article is amateurish fanboy fluff. He should've just said reason 4 and left it at that.

Seemed pretty reasonable, but I guess you still got that grudge against CNET for the whole XDE debacle.

**bruceames** · 01-14-2009, 10:03 PM

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Originally Posted by DonnyDC

His point was that it wont be taking off 'anytime soon.' You havent said anything to disagree with that.

Nor did I intend to. HD downloads can take off later as well and make it tough for Blu-ray.

Quote:

Wow that was the only advantage you saw in having one standard? How about being able to lend movies and having movies play on different brand name devices.

I thought the article referred to having one standard, either Blu-ray or downloads. Having reread it, I see that it was among various download options. But in that case, it's advantageous for Blu-ray to have it split up into various standards, so as to maximize confusion and minimize the threat, wouldn't it? So reason 2, the way it's written, is a little confusing. I would agree that download options should be as standardized as possible, but I don't know how much of a negative effect it would cause as far as overall success.

Quote:

And the competition? obviously no one is waiting for the price of Apple TV to go down.

I meant 'duh' in that it's obvious the price of players will go down. It's not like there's any revelation here

Quote:

Yup but like you said they didnt 'sacrifice' their gaming franchise for it.

That remains to be seen. Where would the PS3 be today, if it launched a year earlier and $200 cheaper? At the very least, Sony sacrificed 1st place in HD gaming to Microsoft and the lost revenue that entails (will it be more than the gains from Blu-ray?

)

Quote:

Seemed pretty reasonable, but I guess you still got that grudge against CNET for the whole XDE debacle.

Gawd, you mean CNet wrote this piece of crap?

Dare · 01-14-2009, 10:59 PM

Quote:

1. Digital downloads will not eliminate the need for discs anytime soon.
2. Having one clear standard is a big advantage.
3. Blu-ray isn't going to be replaced by another disc format anytime soon.
4. Prices for large-screen HDTVs will continue to drop.
5. Prices for Blu-ray players will continue to drop.
6. Prices for Blu-ray discs will drop to near DVD price levels.
7. Sony will sell lots of PlayStation 3 game consoles.
8. Sony can't afford to have Blu-ray fail.
9. Sony and its partners will figure out a way to have Blu-ray resonate with the public.

The first three are decent enough points.
The next three are just cheating to puff up the list. They should be consolidated into one point. Everything gets cheaper over time.
#7 is irrelevant. The trojan horse effect was important to beat HD-DVD, but the market I expect they're aiming Blu-ray at is way bigger than the PS3 audience. Let's face it, they aren't going to sell unlimited numbers of PS3s, or numbers that match the number of DVD players.
#8 is just silly. Just because Sony can't afford to have Blu-ray fail is not a magical guarantee that it won't. Blu-ray probably won't fail, but it won't be because Sony is motivated by imminent death. If the public likes what they're peddling, they should do all right. If not, well, the history books are littered with failed companies that couldn't afford to have that one thing fail. That is not a good reason why Blu-ray will succeed.
I don't even think #9 should count. Might as well say "they'll just stay in business and make products that people want to buy." Okay, obviously. "They'll market effectively." Right, but how do you know they'll do that? How do you know it'll work, unless you believe Sony is infallible, and will naturally succeed at everything they try. Sounds like fanboy crap to me. That's also not a valid reason. And let's face this one too. Blu-ray will not be pushed onto the public. There's nothing Sony and friends can do to make it "resonate" with the public. What, have they been keeping Blu-ray under their hats until now? Have they not yet unleashed their full marketing power? People either give a crap or they don't. The people who don't will get around to HD eventually, when their old stuff dies and nothing else is available to buy. The people who are interested are already there in spite of Sony, or are there in spirit if money doesn't allow.

So I see 4 good reasons here.

**bruceames** · 01-14-2009, 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dare

The first three are decent enough points.
The next three are just cheating to puff up the list. They should be consolidated into one point. Everything gets cheaper over time.
#7 is irrelevant. The trojan horse effect was important to beat HD-DVD, but the market I expect they're aiming Blu-ray at is way bigger than the PS3 audience. Let's face it, they aren't going to sell unlimited numbers of PS3s, or numbers that match the number of DVD players.
#8 is just silly. Just because Sony can't afford to have Blu-ray fail is not a magical guarantee that it won't. Blu-ray probably won't fail, but it won't be because Sony is motivated by imminent death. If the public likes what they're peddling, they should do all right. If not, well, the history books are littered with failed companies that couldn't afford to have that one thing fail. That is not a good reason why Blu-ray will succeed.
I don't even think #9 should count. Might as well say "they'll just stay in business and make products that people want to buy." Okay, obviously. "They'll market effectively." Right, but how do you know they'll do that? How do you know it'll work, unless you believe Sony is infallible, and will naturally succeed at everything they try. Sounds like fanboy crap to me. That's also not a valid reason. And let's face this one too. Blu-ray will not be pushed onto the public. There's nothing Sony and friends can do to make it "resonate" with the public. What, have they been keeping Blu-ray under their hats until now? Have they not yet unleashed their full marketing power? People either give a crap or they don't. The people who don't will get around to HD eventually, when their old stuff dies and nothing else is available to buy. The people who are interested are already there in spite of Sony, or are there in spirit if money doesn't allow.

So I see 4 good reasons here.

Very well put.

01-14-2009, 07:50 PM	#3
Bravestime Supporter of HiDef Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Aiken, SC Age: 53 Posts: 4,414	I thought he made some good points. Very interesting read. __________________ Life is Short, Watch a Movie

01-14-2009, 09:01 PM	#10
Bravestime Supporter of HiDef Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Aiken, SC Age: 53 Posts: 4,414	I try to wait for sales on most movies, but there are a handful I had to have NOW. Such movies was TDK, Ironman and The Godfather. Sometimes you just have to pay the fiddler to dance. __________________ Life is Short, Watch a Movie

01-14-2009, 09:24 PM	#11
bruceames Moderator Join Date: May 2006 Location: San Rafael, CA Posts: 10,166	1) Digital downloads are getting more popular. That's a fact. Digital downloads will be getting more convenient and with better quality over time. That's a given. Like it or not, Blu-ray has to compete with that, which is basically competing with something more convenient (having the movie immediately without leaving your chair) and better and better quality over time (Blu-ray will always have the same quality). People will always want to own movies, but optical discs are already getting rather quaint and the glory days are coming to a close (pretty much already has with CD). 2. Having one standard is an advantage if you have a monetary interest in Blu-ray having no competition from other sourcing streams. Blu-ray really has no competition from anything optical except DVD. It sounds as if the author wants to petition against downloads or anything that would take away from a Blu-ray sale. Fortunately the average consumer prefers to have options of downloading or buying/renting a movie. Blu-ray will just have to succeed on its own merits, and not by having downloads or whatever fold up and go away because its soooo unfair. 4) True. That's the real Trojan Horse, HDTV adoption. Nothing else. Period. 5) 6) They sold a lot of PSPs, too. 7) Really reaching here. What's Sony gonna do, buy another studio? Stop releasing their movies on DVD? They've had failed formats before. Every company wants their products/formats to succeed, and BLu-ray probably will. But it won't be because they 'won't let it fail', but rather because they've already sacrificed their gaming franchise. Hope it was worth it. 9) Typical zealot sentiment. This whole article is amateurish fanboy fluff. He should've just said reason 4 and left it at that. __________________ Blu-rays: 55 Latest purchases: John Adams, Gone With the Wind, Up, Rocky: The Undisputed Collection

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01-14-2009, 07:33 PM	#2
scsa High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 1,106	how long do you think it will take for Lee to post a negative in here two minutes or longer?

01-14-2009, 07:52 PM	#4
ack_bak Hidef Junkie Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 2,416	Nice read. I think he is echoing what many of us have been saying for sometime.

01-14-2009, 08:06 PM	#6
scsa High Definition is the definition of life. Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 1,106	its a great article.

01-14-2009, 08:38 PM	#7
loganhunter200 99 is the magic number Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 472	I'm waiting for #6 to happen. People have been saying this since last year. So far, new releases are still 30 bucks. I've stop buying new releases on DVDs and Blu ray since Oct 08. With the recession getting worse, I hope to see them drop the price soon. __________________ F Uuuuuuuuu Toshiba!!!