9 reasons why Blu-ray will succeed

Lee Stewart · 01-14-2009, 11:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dare

The first three are decent enough points.
The next three are just cheating to puff up the list. They should be consolidated into one point. Everything gets cheaper over time.
#7 is irrelevant. The trojan horse effect was important to beat HD-DVD, but the market I expect they're aiming Blu-ray at is way bigger than the PS3 audience. Let's face it, they aren't going to sell unlimited numbers of PS3s, or numbers that match the number of DVD players.
#8 is just silly. Just because Sony can't afford to have Blu-ray fail is not a magical guarantee that it won't. Blu-ray probably won't fail, but it won't be because Sony is motivated by imminent death. If the public likes what they're peddling, they should do all right. If not, well, the history books are littered with failed companies that couldn't afford to have that one thing fail. That is not a good reason why Blu-ray will succeed.
I don't even think #9 should count. Might as well say "they'll just stay in business and make products that people want to buy." Okay, obviously. "They'll market effectively." Right, but how do you know they'll do that? How do you know it'll work, unless you believe Sony is infallible, and will naturally succeed at everything they try. Sounds like fanboy crap to me. That's also not a valid reason. And let's face this one too. Blu-ray will not be pushed onto the public. There's nothing Sony and friends can do to make it "resonate" with the public. What, have they been keeping Blu-ray under their hats until now? Have they not yet unleashed their full marketing power? People either give a crap or they don't. The people who don't will get around to HD eventually, when their old stuff dies and nothing else is available to buy. The people who are interested are already there in spite of Sony, or are there in spirit if money doesn't allow.

So I see 4 good reasons here.

jadedeath · 01-14-2009, 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruceames

Nor did I intend to. HD downloads can take off later as well and make it tough for Blu-ray.

When is 'later'?

Seriously. People have had access to VOD services through digital cable for some time now, did that slow down Blu-Ray last year or the year before?

So when 'later' comes around you be sure and let the rest of us know. And when the Internet companies stop with the bandwidth caps will be around that time.

Quote:

I meant 'duh' in that it's obvious the price of players will go down. It's not like there's any revelation here

Then I should certainly hope that you pipe up with said reasoning whenever nay-sayers start complaining about Blu-Ray player pricing.

Quote:

That remains to be seen. Where would the PS3 be today, if it launched a year earlier and $200 cheaper? At the very least, Sony sacrificed 1st place in HD gaming to Microsoft and the lost revenue that entails (will it be more than the gains from Blu-ray?

)

It's a war, not a race.

Plus, in this generation of game systems, it wouldn't have mattered if they released it 2 years earlier, it would still be behind the Wii.

Both "HD" gaming systems are getting their asses handed to it by the Wii.

Quote:

Gawd, you mean CNet wrote this piece of crap?

Does that change your opinion of CNet?

Kinda funny how opinion of something changes when they don't agree with your slant on the world.

Logan

**bruceames** · 01-14-2009, 11:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jadedeath

When is 'later'?

Seriously. People have had access to VOD services through digital cable for some time now, did that slow down Blu-Ray last year or the year before?

So when 'later' comes around you be sure and let the rest of us know. And when the Internet companies stop with the bandwidth caps will be around that time.

HD downloads are behind the curve because of the bandwidth needed. When it catches up, then it will be a force to be reckoned with in the HD market.

Quote:

Then I should certainly hope that you pipe up with said reasoning whenever nay-sayers start complaining about Blu-Ray player pricing.

It's a given that prices will fall and entice people to buy. Like Dare said, it's obvious and would apply to the competition as well.

Quote:

It's a war, not a race.

Plus, in this generation of game systems, it wouldn't have mattered if they released it 2 years earlier, it would still be behind the Wii.

Both "HD" gaming systems are getting their asses handed to it by the Wii.

True, but PS3 sales have been hurt by Blu-ray overall, and now it must compete with more expensive components, which gives the edge to MS in the future as well.

Quote:

Does that change your opinion of CNet?

Kinda funny how opinion of something changes when they don't agree with your slant on the world.

Logan

Yes, it lowers it even further.

DonnyDC · 01-14-2009, 11:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dare

The people who don't will get around to HD eventually, when their old stuff dies and nothing else is available to buy.

I guess that could be the 10th reason.

**bruceames** · 01-14-2009, 11:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonnyDC

I guess that could be the 10th reason.

It's a result, not a reason. By that time Blu-ray will already have succeeded.

DonnyDC · 01-14-2009, 11:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruceames

HD downloads are behind the curve because of the bandwidth needed. When it catches up, then it will be a force to be reckoned with in the HD market.

And when is that?

Quote:

It's a given that prices will fall and entice people to buy. Like Dare said, it's obvious and would apply to the competition as well.

No, it doesnt.
Like I said who's waiting for Apple TV to drop in price? Vudu and Netflix boxes are already $99. Movie prices arent gonna budge either from the $15.99-20.99 they are now(to own not rent)
Apparently $15.99 is even too low for studios, as we all know theyre limiting most of the content to only sd editions.

Quote:

True, but PS3 sales have been hurt by Blu-ray overall, and now it must compete with more expensive components, which gives the edge to MS in the future as well.

Not much of an edge, the gaming venture is still a 2+ billion dollar loss for MS. Not that far behind Sony.

DonnyDC · 01-14-2009, 11:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruceames

It's a result, not a reason. By that time Blu-ray will already have succeeded.

Naw its a reason. Its basically like saying "People will have no choice but to join."

jadedeath · 01-14-2009, 11:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bruceames

HD downloads are behind the curve because of the bandwidth needed. When it catches up, then it will be a force to be reckoned with in the HD market.

I don't see that happening any time soon.

IP's are constricting bandwidth right now, not increasing it. If it were going in the opposite direction, I might agree with you.

Quote:

It's a given that prices will fall and entice people to buy. Like Dare said, it's obvious and would apply to the competition as well.

Prices will fall eventually, but right now VoD costs about the same amount to rent as going to the store and picking up a BD {depending on your area} and ownership options for High Def are few and far between.

Quote:

True, but PS3 sales have been hurt by Blu-ray overall, and now it must compete with more expensive components, which gives the edge to MS in the future as well.

Depending on how you look at it. They've managed to wrangle the price down by about 50% over the course of the last 2 years, I can't see the price to build it going up either.

Quote:

Yes, it lowers it even further.

*LOL* True enough.

Logan

**PFC5** · 01-15-2009, 02:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jadedeath

I don't see that happening any time soon.

IP's are constricting bandwidth right now, not increasing it. If it were going in the opposite direction, I might agree with you.

Prices will fall eventually, but right now VoD costs about the same amount to rent as going to the store and picking up a BD {depending on your area} and ownership options for High Def are few and far between.

Depending on how you look at it. They've managed to wrangle the price down by about 50% over the course of the last 2 years, I can't see the price to build it going up either.

*LOL* True enough.

Logan

Sure it can. It is called currency exchange rates.

The Yen is stronger now and it is hurting all the Japanese companies who make most of their money by selling to other countries which are experiencing lower values for their currency against the Yen. That means the cost of components used to sell a product to OTHER countries with a lowering exchange rate will be the same as a increase in costs. BTW, I doubt Sony can change the exchange rates themselves, so they are stuck with the current rates and have to hope the current trend reverses or else it will be the same as a cost increase to mfg the PS3 and all other products they make.

Nikopol · 01-15-2009, 02:45 AM

Lesson learned from Formatwar II:

If someone says things like

Quote:

And I'm not saying that because I'm a fanboy or a shill for Sony.

you can be sure he's at least a fanboy. The rest of the article sadly confirms this.

I agree with Dare's opinion about the blog.

MikeRox · 01-15-2009, 06:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dare

So I see 4 good reasons here.

To be fair, the article just says 9 reasons... not good reasons

I agree that prices will naturally drop and so it's a bit moot and padding out.

crazyal · 01-15-2009, 08:04 AM

I have to disagree with the whole "Sony's too big and can push what they want onto the public", mainly #3. Sony has tried pushing a lot of different things over the years. Why is it only Blu-Ray that they use all this might and will to push as the standard?

Secondly if DVD lasted 9 years before a replacement hit the market and the replacement cycle for 'new and improved' is always dropping in time then BD should be seeing a challenger in 4 years (that would be about 7 years into it's life). Just the fact that player prices and movies (if they follow DVD) will have dropped to a point where CEMs will be wanting something new.

Thirdly the PS3 as far as BD goes is no longer the anchor of the format. With all the new players on the market and the prices falling to a point where the PS3 will never reach for years to come it's just not as important as it once was.

Finally Sony is not going to go belly up if BD failed to replace DVD. Sure it would sting and the Sony name would take a hit but fail, not in my lifetime. It could hurt them the next time a fork in the road happens when two different formats (VHS vs. Beta or HD DVD vs. BD) are on the drawing board and they are trying to get CEMs to side with them. But that damage was already done with the war this time around.

01-15-2009, 08:04 AM	#27
crazyal Smarter than the ave bear Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 3,312	I have to disagree with the whole "Sony's too big and can push what they want onto the public", mainly #3. Sony has tried pushing a lot of different things over the years. Why is it only Blu-Ray that they use all this might and will to push as the standard? Secondly if DVD lasted 9 years before a replacement hit the market and the replacement cycle for 'new and improved' is always dropping in time then BD should be seeing a challenger in 4 years (that would be about 7 years into it's life). Just the fact that player prices and movies (if they follow DVD) will have dropped to a point where CEMs will be wanting something new. Thirdly the PS3 as far as BD goes is no longer the anchor of the format. With all the new players on the market and the prices falling to a point where the PS3 will never reach for years to come it's just not as important as it once was. Finally Sony is not going to go belly up if BD failed to replace DVD. Sure it would sting and the Sony name would take a hit but fail, not in my lifetime. It could hurt them the next time a fork in the road happens when two different formats (VHS vs. Beta or HD DVD vs. BD) are on the drawing board and they are trying to get CEMs to side with them. But that damage was already done with the war this time around. __________________ Please don't feed the Unicorns

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